Major Absolute Poker Issue

[lnspin]

My thoughts on this ,

the chip dumping is 100% true , i have watched it myself and it is the only explination .

As for seeing the hole cards , i do not beleive ap has been hacked and that the cheaters can see everyones hole cards , i think a few of the cheaters , somehow got a trojan on some high limit players computers , and are able to see there hole cards , and are effectively cleaning them out .

That letter from Danielle was shocking , as she stated that n instances of chip dumping were found . Well where are you looking , when a player bets 9999 and gets raised to 10,000 and folds instead of calling a $1 , there is no explination for that , and it has happened mutiple times .

 

[Adanthar]

As for seeing the hole cards , i do not beleive ap has been hacked and that the cheaters can see everyones hole cards , i think a few of the cheaters , somehow got a trojan on some high limit players computers , and are able to see there hole cards , and are effectively cleaning them out .

For a variety of reasons already stated on 2+2, that cannot be the case. The most important one of these is that the cheating also took place in tournaments, where trojans planted on only certain players would not be nearly as effective. A 'raise 21/fold exactly the 5 times that random people have big pairs' record cannot be explained by a virus on only 'some' computers.

 

[chuchu59]

Ya asking for proof, is a bad way to solve a problem like this, lets stick with innuendo and false accusations.


First is there no other possible explanation of this players actions, like maybe he/she was just stupid, drunk or drugged up or maybe this person got so freaked out by being accused of cheating that they went on tilt to the max.

Next, So your sure no one at AP was investigating? They just ignored everything huh... wells thats crappy of them, but your really sure they did nothing, absolutely nothing...

Maybe the folks at AP wanted to know what was going on before they took any action or maybe they looked at it and saw nothing or maybe they looked and saw something but ignored it... But they took action of some kind...

You don't have any idea of what Absolute Poker did or did not do, but your willing to damn them one way or the other aren't you...

Wheres the PROOF?

Lotso,

If there needs to be proof that conforms to your level, nobody would be convicted of any crimes. I have always believed that anyone is innocent unless proven guilty but your standards really do take the cake. Assuming stupidity, drunkenness or just freaked out is carrying proof to extremes especially when these occurences have been numerous and sustained over a steady period of time. I am no poker expert but from what i have read from the 2+2 forum and the posts from pokeraddict and BBPoker it is obvious that something is amiss and that chip dumping actually occured at least. Of course, unless the guy actually admits it, you can always argue that this is not the case but surely the evidence is damning even to a novice like me.

 

[Zoozie]

Everyone that does not believe foul play is the case here, please write how long you have played poker with your PT BB/100 and limit, total number of hands

If you do this and still want to troll, then come up with some serious arguments how it is possible to archive those stats. Run some statistics and find the odds for a maniac going on such a lucky streak besides making the correct river decision 179 times in a row. Also factor in they sometimes lost small pots on purpose to disguise the cheat. (though I would have done a lot more of that!) Or is it a hoax setup somehow with false PT data?

I do not find a Trojan likely at all since it was happening to many players in cash-games not to mention the MMT's.

The only resolution is that AP hire a third party and give them full access to the AP hand database. The accusations are serious enough for AP to go this far.

 

[pokeraddict]

The story broke one week ago today and to this point so I figure it is a good time for a summary:

1. A massive amount of evidence has been compiled against the cheats. Mods at 2+2 have compiled a database in Poker Tracker, a popular software which tracks your results as well as the other players you play against and in the case of many sites games you observe. These stats prove to virtually everybody in the online poker community that the accused players were cheating by being able to see the hole cards of the other players.

2. AP reacted very slowly in locking the cheat accounts, even allowing one to chip dump several days after this broke.

3. AP has still not made a public comment. An affiliate manager at Chipleader has but claimed they had not found any odd play as of yet. Considering just the number of chip dump hands posted this seems impossible. IMO it is safe to say that this statement was not made by management, especially since it was signed by the Chipleader.com employee. To this point nobody has disputed that and the response has been widely ignored since the most obvious chip dumping was not acknowledged.

4. AP has asked a poker affiliate forum to not allow discussion of this and the thread was removed from their forum by the owner (shame on them).

5. Support sends out form emails to players asking questions about this situation. Even players that lost tens of thousands to the cheats cannot get any info out of AP.

6. AP's security department has told a player that were taken "We are unable to find any hands involving you and x player". AP had to be emailed hand #'s/histories from the player which hardly gives confidence in the investigation or the anti collusion/cheating procedures.

7. AP ignored initial emails from players tipping them off to the cheating and first chip dumping. Their lack of response leads to this exposure.

8. The amount stolen by the cheats range from $400,000-$600,000.

9. The community seems split on whether AP is involved in the cheating ring. Some feel the site was hacked, others feel an AP insider is in on it while others feel AP management has known about this all along.

10. The consensus has become that the cheating started on the day of the last major upgrade about a month ago.

Other interesting things that have come out of this that don't help AP's cause.

1. The razz game awards a pot to the wrong person. After repeated emails AP still claims the pot was awarded to the correct person when obviously it was not. The email exchange was humorous as multiple people at AP (and obviously the software developer) are unable to grasp the rules of the game.

2. Mark Seif had been accused of this same thing in the past (with no real evidence). Mark Seif comes out denying any involvement and publicly asks AP to investigate and resolve this situation. Most in the community do not feel Mark Seif is involved. In fact, Mark claims in his statement that he is likely the biggest loser in AP history. Many players agree with his admission of losses.

3. Several former props have come out claiming AP did this same type of cheating to them about 2 years ago. I once propped for them but it seems the time frame AP has been accused of this was after I left the program. I worked for AP for about 2 years as a prop and left on great terms. In fact I'm probably still listed officially as a prop. IMO AP did not start the downward spiral until the UIGEA passed which was long after my last hand. AFAIK the props making this accusation have never brought up any proof, at least not up to the magnitude of the current accusations.

I'm sure I've missed some good points but this is a good halftime summary. It's time for Absolute Poker to step up to the plate and enlighten us as to what they have found. Obviously they are in an awful situation. Either they have been caught cheating or they have allowed a backdoor that allowed cheating to take place on their site, even after being presented with the proof it was going on.

 

[satchmo]

Ohh comercial break, now let's go and the popcorn stand.

Whoa alot of reading in all the forums.

Well as far as proof, i would say somethig dosent add up.
Well im backing up again waiting for some more reading on this thing.


Satchmo the man the myth the working class hero.

 

[Casinomeister]

AP responds

I received an email response from AP overnight. I don't think they'll mind me posting it here:

We have done an extensive research into the claims that have been brought to our attention. While we are continuing to do a thorough and exhaustive investigation, we have yet to find any evidence of wrong doing.

When you are logged in and playing your game client only receives data regarding your hole cards. As a result, it is impossible for a player to have information regarding any other player's hole cards. There are no "superuser" accounts that enable players to see other players' hole cards.

Despite our confidence in the security of our systems, we researched hands involving accounts that were mentioned in the online forum posts over the weekend and did not find any incidence of cheating by the accounts in question. Results mentioned in the forums were over a small sample of hands, and we have researched these hands as well as numerous other hands involving these players and have found that the pattern of play of the players did not lend credibility to the claim that the players knew the cards of other players at the table. Certainly there were hands that were played poorly, from a poker strategy perspective, and where these players received a fortunate result. However, a longer term review has shown that similar playing strategies have not resulted in the same results as these players achieved in the small sample of hands mentioned in the online discussion.

Furthermore, the play of the players in question did not substantiate claims that they were involved in chip dumping, or any other improper activity.

We take these matters very seriously, and stand by the results of our random number generator and game client security. Because of the seriousness of these allegations, we have not closed the investigation and are continuing to look very closely into this matter.

 

[chuchu59]

AP's response? It's too generalised and hardly convincing. We have discussed in detail several instances of chip dumping in this thread and since its all in the open already AP should explain to us why they think they are not regarded as such. I, for one, wouldnt mind to treat these as case studies with details scrutinised as closely as possible.

 

[I Like Pie]

lol @

Furthermore, the play of the players in question did not substantiate claims that they were involved in chip dumping, or any other improper activity.

The other night after this story came out, DOUBLEDRAG sat down and spewed thousands of dollars. He obviously knew that he got caught cheating and thought this was a good way to cover it up. I saw on hand where he called an all-in on the turn with K high and no draws, and another was with 4 high I believe. All the hand histories from that session are in one of the 2+2 threads.
AP is a joke.

 

[lots0]

He obviously knew that he got caught cheating and thought this was a good way to cover it up.

So besides being a super user card cheat he/she is an idiot as well...
Ya that makes a lot of sense...

You don't like AP.... Don't play there.

A massive amount of evidence has been compiled against the cheats.

Have you asked a qualified independent investigator to look at your evidence? I know you all believed AP was guilty before you even began to gather any evidence, so it would only fair to ask an independent 3rd party to take a look before passing judgment (oops too late for that, you've already made yourselves judge and jury and now your trying hard to be the executioner... ) Mob justice is always so.... fair and open minded...(sarcasm)

 

[GaryWatson]

So besides being a super user card cheat he/she is an idiot as well...
Ya that makes a lot of sense...

You don't like AP.... Don't play there.

Have you asked a qualified independent investigator to look at your evidence? I know you all believed AP was guilty before you even began to gather any evidence, so it would only fair to ask an independent 3rd party to take a look before passing judgment (oops too late for that, you've already made yourselves judge and jury and now your trying hard to be the executioner... ) Mob justice is always so.... fair and open minded...(sarcasm)

It would be difficult to find anyone independant. It a bad thing all round for online poker. The whole industry could be affected by this. High stakes players who are calling out AP could lose a lot of their income over this.

I would call many of the pro players qualified enough to determine irregular hands.

Most people are used to hearing rigged stories. Very few believe it. The complainee usually gets laughed off the forum but this time there seems to be a very strong case.

 

[I Like Pie]

So besides being a super user card cheat he/she is an idiot as well...
Ya that makes a lot of sense...

Cause we all know that all criminals are smart

 

[SeattleSinner]

That response from AP shows one of two things:

1. They obviously have no idea what is going on. (And I wouldn't put it past their staff that this is the case)

2. They are involved in this scam which is why they havent "uncovered" anything.

 

[pokeraddict]

That response from AP shows one of two things:

1. They obviously have no idea what is going on. (And I wouldn't put it past their staff that this is the case)

2. They are involved in this scam which is why they havent "uncovered" anything.

Exactly. Anybody that has a clue at the very least sees the blatant HU chip dumping. It's not in AP's best interest to do anything here even if they are not involved.

Funny how calling the worst possible hand on the river for $1700 isn't odd. Also it's is not odd to call all in with T9 with no draws on the turn and just happen to run into the few hands you can beat without improving. What a joke.

What AP can do to convince us is show us hh's from endless times this player called ten high all in on the turn w/o any draws and lost and other situations where the players made smiliar plays but were not ahead.

 

[pokeraddict]

This is on page 65 of the monster part 3 thread at 2+2. This is well beyond my math skills but it seems like everyone agrees his math is correct. Thanks to Wolfskin for this. 1 in 20 trillion I guess this means? Nice to know AP thinks this is nothing to be alarmed about.

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I did some statistical research on what's possible in 100 hand spans and 500 hands spans and what's not. The statistical analysis I use are based on the normal curve of distribution. The data used is of one of the best and most respected players on pokerstars in the 25/50 NL game against tough competition with a sample size of 13400 heads-up hands winning approximately 3.8 bb/100 using overbet-shove techniques.

100 hand intervalls:
Mean: 3.49bb/100
Standard Deviation: 65.08bb/100



Results:
for 100 hand spans using 13400 hands the confidence interval (usually you use 95%, that means in 97.5% you will be below this win rate over 100 hands) is:
90%: 103.65bb/100
95%: 124.07bb/100
99%: 164.15bb/100
99.999%: 283.99bb/100
99.99999999999%: 480.77bb/100
or 1:20000000000000 or 1:2E13

500 hand intervalls:
Mean: 1.9bb/100 (different because I only use 13000 hands)
Standard Deviation: 29.32bb/100

confidence intervall for 500 hand spans using a 13000 hand sample:
90%: 46.32bb/100
95%: 55.56bb/100
99%: 73.62bb/100
99.9999999999999999999999: 299.09bb/100
or 1:2E24

 

[Pinababy69]

Just for you Pinababy69... Yes I do play poker, but only for small stakes. Try as I might, I'm not very good, but I still like playing.

I currently have one of my guys going over the PT software, I don't know yet if the software 'phones home' regularly or not till I hear back from him on what he found.

Thanks lots0. You are the same type of player as me then. I have my moments, but overall I'm not that good either, lol.

I'd be interested to hear what conclusion you come to about the PT software. My statement was certainly not based on any technical knowledge, only on my impression of how it seemed to work when I d/l'd and installed it.

I am no poker expert but from what i have read from the 2+2 forum and the posts from pokeraddict and BBPoker it is obvious that something is amiss and that chip dumping actually occured at least. Of course, unless the guy actually admits it, you can always argue that this is not the case but surely the evidence is damning even to a novice like me.

Totally agreed Chuchu. I couldn't have said it better myself.

Run some statistics and find the odds for a maniac going on such a lucky streak besides making the correct river decision 179 times in a row.

Exactly Zoozie!! To put it in the simplest terms, what are the odds of flipping a coin and it coming up heads 179 times in a row? Maybe not the best analogy as with poker, there is an element of skill and reading your opponents...but NO ONE can make the correct call 179 times in a row. Not possible.

4. AP has asked a poker affiliate forum to not allow discussion of this and the thread was removed from their forum by the owner (shame on them).

Shame on them indeed Pokeraddict. Which forum was this, if you don't mind me asking?

I received an email response from AP overnight. I don't think they'll mind me posting it here:

That response certainly leaves alot to be desired. I'd have to go back and check, but it seems similar to the standard "form" type email they sent out to some of the players who had emailed inquiring as to what was going on.

Furthermore, the play of the players in question did not substantiate claims that they were involved in chip dumping, or any other improper activity.

Ha ha...okay Absolute Poker. No chip dumping? Who the hell is checking the hand histories.....the three blind mice?

That response from AP shows one of two things:

1. They obviously have no idea what is going on. (And I wouldn't put it past their staff that this is the case)

2. They are involved in this scam which is why they havent "uncovered" anything.

Agreed SeattleSinner. And my vote would probably be for number one....total incompetence.

 

[pokeraddict]

Originally Posted by pokeraddict
4. AP has asked a poker affiliate forum to not allow discussion of this and the thread was removed from their forum by the owner (shame on them).

Shame on them indeed Pokeraddict. Which forum was this, if you don't mind me asking?

Pokeraffiliateworld.com

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I removed the thread on request of AP upper management. They will be giving the affiliates an official statement via PAW.

AFAIK AP never gave them a statement beyond the one issued by Chipleader. In his blog he doesn't mention anybody in AP's upper managemnt though but does mention Chipleader saying the thread was "slanderous".

That's right, instead of allowing a free discussion for affiliates to give input on where to go from there (like not promoting AP/UB, getting together to push AP into a 3rd party review, pushing AP into a response etc.) Jeremy deletes the entire thread at the request of Absolute Poker. He then even went into his blog and calls out the rest of the community for doubting AP. Although he has promoted poker for many years he does not seem to have any concept of the game or how to read Poker Tracker stats. I guess the other thought is his relationship with AP/UB has gotten in the way with the fact multiple players are running on a 20 trillion to 1 shot streak with about the worst possible preflop stats one can have. If a normal players W$atSD is 50% (its slightly higher) then winning 179 coin tosses in a row is a good comparison. It's probably closer to winning 160 coin tosses in a row. It's still not possible.

 

[pokeraddict]

This is not completely related but it goes against AP's credibility for sure. Pokertips.org has just caught AP scraping content off their site and calling it their own. Pokertips state this was written in 2003. If you go to the Internet Archives you will see it was on Pokertips site on or before October 5th 2003, on AP's site it was not recorded until November 2005.

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Outdated URL (Invalid)

The announcement can be found here:

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Just add this to the mountain of dishonest things they have done in the past. Site scraping really hits home with me after having my content ripped off time and time again when I owned a rakeback directory.

IMO if AP does not get their act together shortly it will be time to call for player and affiliate boycotts. Players are already contacting AP's advertising venues with what is going on. AP just gets deeper and deeper.

 

[Pinababy69]

Pokeraffiliateworld.com

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That's right, instead of allowing a free discussion for affiliates to give input on where to go from there (like not promoting AP/UB, getting together to push AP into a 3rd party review, pushing AP into a response etc.) Jeremy deletes the entire thread at the request of Absolute Poker. He then even went into his blog and calls out the rest of the community for doubting AP. Although he has promoted poker for many years he does not seem to have any concept of the game or how to read Poker Tracker stats. I guess the other thought is his relationship with AP/UB has gotten in the way with the fact multiple players are running on a 20 trillion to 1 shot streak with about the worst possible preflop stats one can have. If a normal players W$atSD is 50% (its slightly higher) then winning 179 coin tosses in a row is a good comparison. It's probably closer to winning 160 coin tosses in a row. It's still not possible.

Thanks for the link pokeraddict. And for the correction on the analogy. I definitely should have worded it as you did...not how many times it would come up heads, but how many in a row can you win? As you said, whether it's a 160 or 179...it's just not within the realm of possibility. I could sit here right now and flip a coin, and I'd be shocked if I could call it correctly five times in a row, nevermind over 100 times, lol.

On the subject of analogies (but not to derail), I've read some of the ones being posted over at 2+2 and they're quite good. They can also be useful in trying to stress the point of how improbable the stats are, to someone who maybe doesn't understand poker all that well. The best one I've read so far is this (not verbatim folks) - go to a major league baseball game and go up into the stands. Find the most out-of-shape, non-athletic looking guy that you can and invite him to step up to the plate. To make it more interesting, let's say Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez on their best day. The guy proceeds to hit 28 home runs IN A ROW. Out of the park, gone, cleared the fences. It will never happen. This is very similar to what has happened here...poker players who had never even played in the "majors" before stepped up and hit home run after home run....against seasoned veteran pitchers. Thanks to the poster who came up with that one..it's great.

If I get a chance after dinner, I'm gonna check out this Jeremy's site. It will be interesting I'm sure.

 

[GaryWatson]

Question?

Why does the only AP member "Danielle" (chipleader affiliate manager) answer for them?

Answer

Chipleader was introduced to reduce standard affiliate payments. If caught, they can be replaced.

Chipleader still respond to GPWA and assume accreditation.

No response to fact by chipleader staff has ever been worth reading. Quite litterally they have been scamming all but a select few.

Here's the kicker, if chipleader goes down. The affiliates will lose out and AP will gain. The company just changes names. Same people only they change ownership. Straight out of the blackhat bankrupt scam association.

This was all before this fiasco.

They should be decredited & dumped in the rouges section. They have done worse than any there.

Chipleader is supposed to be a third party but its not. It happens in dodgy small businesses, Once in trouble you change ownership and everything is fine.

 

[kakata]

nice to have you back Pina

 

[pokeraddict]

No response to fact by chipleader staff has ever been worth reading. Quite litterally they have been scamming all but a select few.

Correct they are in house marketers for AP/UB. Since they took over they have changed the formula for MGR from contributed to dealt, even on existing players. They have also taken a 5% "service charge" on all US players to cover deposit fees, regardless of whether your player deposits or not, even on players signed up before the change. There have been endless accusations by affiliates of getting shorted by them and one very large affiliate (Pokerlistings) stopped promoting AP/UB because they feel they have been cheated.

 

[lots0]

The rumors, innuendo and down right lies just never stops does it?

Pokeraddict you keep saying over and over that AP needs to "prove to you" and "convince you"....

So just who the hell DO YOU THINK YOU ARE and who made you the poker god that everyone needs to please?

You don't even play at Absolute Poker, so just what is your concern with this? Are you getting paid by Bodog to trash their competition?

All I see in this thread are a bunch of unproven accusations and down right lies about Absolute Poker.

The math guy (a grad student) I had look at your so called proof was laughing at the idea that anyone could come to ANY definite conclusion given the data samples offered.

So how hard is it to get a Math major with a minor in Statistics that never player poker (you know someone independent) to go over your "data"?

Your data is crap and so are your accusations.

Bryan how much longer are you going to allow these false accusations, with no proof to back them up to be spewed here?

 

[I Like Pie]

 

[BBC Z]

Pokeraddict you keep saying over and over that AP needs to "prove to you" and "convince you"....

Pokeraddict is speaking for every single person that plays on-line poker. We all want to know what is going on, and the information coming from Absolute poker itself is insufficient (at best).