Q&A Ask Me Anything about Slots (AMA) 2020 with Trancemonkey

[mack341]

If Banks are vulnerable...

Rise in ‘inside job’ bank frauds​

Staff are being targeted by scammers hoping to get hold of customers’ financial details​

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[paywalled but the first lines give the gist]

Fraudsters are bribing or blackmailing bank staff for customers’ information, The Times has learnt. As banks reveal a startling increase in scams during lockdown, the number of bank insiders being targeted by criminal gangs has doubled in the past year.

There is a special police unit focusing on insider crime, where bank staff paid by criminals could compromise the personal information of hundreds of thousands of customers.

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Another good reason SOW's should probably be based on gambling behaviour rather than blanket, wonder if the ukgc or information commissioner ever considered the data protection implications of people being required to send their private financial information via email to online casinos in the uk or abroad, and any extra safeguards required due to the sensitivity of the info?

 

[trancemonkey]

A question not related to games being rigged:

How much access do frontline support staff have to sensitive systems/documents?
I'm sure at the bigger reputable casinos it's probably limited, but I can't help think that at the smaller, dodgier casinos "Mike" in the live chat is selling our ID documents to the Russian Mafia and filling his friends accounts up with free money each Friday night...

I'm afraid I don't know the answer to that. In Europe I imagine there is a lot of protection, but outside of GDPR areas, I imagine you might be right...

 

[sledge13]

So if slots have no memory than how do Wild Swarm, Lil Devil and the new Jammin Jars 2 know your progress even if you come back 2 weeks later?

 

[burgstrom]

So if slots have no memory than how do Wild Swarm, Lil Devil and the new Jammin Jars 2 know your progress even if you come back 2 weeks later?

Some Slots do have a "memory". These slots are persistent state slots or binding feature slots (there are many industry names). They record events that may or may not impact RTP, both on an individual player level but also Progressive Jackpot games can be seen as this too, depending on how you look at it.

 

[TamingTheBeast]

question for @The Reel Story & @trancemonkey how many lines of code in your random function? Are you guys using some hardware to generate seeds? It seems fairly to write the code of a slot machine but making sure the RNG doesn't mess up it's another story

 

[Slotplayer83]

Also I, like you, sit there and swear at games. I literally have to say to myself 'You know this isn't screwing you on purpose.... but it's still BS' None of us are immune to it, and I can easily see how people who don't have detailed knowledge just get convinced it's all a sham.

Well, there's only one guarantee we have to this. We're losing. And pretty much fast. It's designed to take your money. But the fairness seems more to be in favor of the casino then the players. How else can you look at this objectively. I've read all the dozen articles about entering with a clear mind etc and not be sucked into it. It's very difficult. Lets put it like that.

How do i otherwise express myself. If i had to choose in between spending 500 euro in a landbased or online. I'd take landbased all day and night. It's not because of the lower RTP's. It's because of actually standing a more fair chance to come ahead. If i'm not winning i could switch fysical machine and try my luck there. The volatility might not be so extended to planet uranus, but it really takes a good handpay and call it a day.

At least we know for instance, that machines are independent. And the actions are truely random. And that once i won big on machine A, i could try my luck on machine B, C, D and so on. We all know the fun stops at a certain point in online, where "somehow" none of the slots seem to work. Rigged? Limited? Capped?

You tell me (And trancemonkey) why the obvious seems to be mocked here as "humans like to see patterns" .. no shit sherlock. It's based on experience. And everytime almost yields the same results at some point. So how on earth is this just my mind as it's right in front of me.

 

[neon claws]

At least we know for instance, that machines are independent. And the actions are truely random. And that once i won big on machine A, i could try my luck on machine B, C, D and so on. We all know the fun stops at a certain point in online, where "somehow" none of the slots seem to work. Rigged? Limited? Capped?

While I disagree with absolutely everything in your post I particularly wonder why you assume to "know" that land based machines are "independent"?

You know they're all linked via a network right? There's no reason they couldn't be doing all the shenanigans you imagine they're doing with the online slots with the physical ones also.

What it comes down to is your accusations are vague and unprovable - can you sum up what your actual theory is on how the slots are rigged in a sentence, not a sprawling paragraph of anecdotal observations, because from there you could go about debating it via gathering actual evidence.

BTW evidence is not; the slots are all cold!
Evidence would be; here's my spreadsheet of 100,000 spins showing a significant variation from the theoretical RTP.

 

[The Reel Story]

question for @The Reel Story & @trancemonkey how many lines of code in your random function? Are you guys using some hardware to generate seeds? It seems fairly to write the code of a slot machine but making sure the RNG doesn't mess up it's another story

I don't work there anymore, and the platform I ran is no longer in use, so no idea on the number of lines of code (would estimate a few hundred) but I can tell you the model our RNG used.

The core algorithm was a Mersenne Twister, which is a predictable, but fast (back then) pseudo random number algorithm. We used (I think) 36 of them chained in a loop. The Mersenne Twister is predictable after collecting ~600 numbers, so after each twister had generated about 500, one of the RNG's is re-seeded by a 'true' random number generator. This could be our internal one (don't know the algorithm but used white noise in there somewhere I believe), or it could be an integration to a hardware RNG, or one a Casino provided.

When one of the twisters is re-seeded by the 'true' RNG, it then re-seeds the next one etc until the whole loop is re-seeded, and then they go and generate another ~500 numbers each.

Each twister only generates one number and then moves on to the next. This makes sure that no individual player is getting a stream of numbers from the same twister (even if they were the only player using the system).

Making sure the RNG is solid is actually fairly easy, because the RNG has to be accredited every year by an independent body who will deep it 'sufficiently random' for use in the industry. If the RNG is messing up, it will not get accreditation.

However, even this doesn't stop people worrying. I once had to deal with a Casino taking all our games off line, reverse engineering our RNG code and sending it to a 3rd party to analyse. They did this because a couple of people were winning big on Roulette (I think they using Martingale which can give good short term returns if keep a bit of luck). They were convinced the players had worked out how to predict the results and that our RNG was at fault. Their 3rd party pulled the code apart and, predictably, came back with the determination that we were using the Mersenne Twister which is a predictable pseudo RNG and therefore our implementation was flawed.

We spent a couple of days tearing through our code, just to be 1000000% sure there was no vulnerability, and then I spent hours on the phone to numerous senior people at the Casino, with a number of our engineers, explaining exactly how the model worked, how it wasn't possible to get to the required ~600 numbers for prediction, that even if they did, it was all but impossible for an individual to get those numbers from a single twister, especially considering the fact that there were thousands of concurrent players all getting sent random numbers.

I think it ended up with them never putting our games live again. Despite all the evidence we gave them, they just couldn't get past what some random 3rd party had told them. The main issue was that they didn't really understand Roulette, and what's funny is, they weren't the only ones. I would estimate we had worries from 5 or 6 Casino's about Roulette being broken (even using their own RNG's, because they had some big winners). It's frigging Roulette! How does a Casino not understand how that game works? People do win on it sometimes If you take the game down, all you do is stop them from putting their winnings back!

So yeh, anyway, there is how the RNG worked and some fun industry stories about RNG. It's not just players who get suspicious haha.

 

[The Reel Story]

Well, there's only one guarantee we have to this. We're losing. And pretty much fast. It's designed to take your money. But the fairness seems more to be in favor of the casino then the players. How else can you look at this objectively. I've read all the dozen articles about entering with a clear mind etc and not be sucked into it. It's very difficult. Lets put it like that.

How do i otherwise express myself. If i had to choose in between spending 500 euro in a landbased or online. I'd take landbased all day and night. It's not because of the lower RTP's. It's because of actually standing a more fair chance to come ahead. If i'm not winning i could switch fysical machine and try my luck there. The volatility might not be so extended to planet uranus, but it really takes a good handpay and call it a day.

At least we know for instance, that machines are independent. And the actions are truely random. And that once i won big on machine A, i could try my luck on machine B, C, D and so on. We all know the fun stops at a certain point in online, where "somehow" none of the slots seem to work. Rigged? Limited? Capped?

You tell me (And trancemonkey) why the obvious seems to be mocked here as "humans like to see patterns" .. no shit sherlock. It's based on experience. And everytime almost yields the same results at some point. So how on earth is this just my mind as it's right in front of me.

You won't like the answer, but because our experiences are different and filtered through the perspective of our minds and our personalities.

Land based slots are designed and target a different type of player, in general (Trance can probably expand more). So it's not unusual to have someone who likes land based but doesn't like online. The games play and feel different.

However, your experience and my experience differ. I've been to Vegas a few times. Put thousands through the slots. Biggest win I've ever had is probably ~400x. Contrast that to online where my biggest win is over 3000x. My wife's biggest win is over 10000x (DOA2 wildline), and where I've had numerous >500x and >1000X.

So while I agree land based is less volatile, my experience is that I've had a better time online.

Strictly statistically, land based slots have much lower RTP, so while I know you said ignoring RTP, just for clarity, you mathematically have a better chance online.

Also, as was noted, most games in land based are networked these days, and you also have the added complexity of different rules around RTP. Land based often have worse RTP and lower denominations (1c) and better RTP at higher denominations ($1). Also the machines next to the exits are normally lower RTP, designed to drain the last of your money before you leave. Then there are the numerous other psychological tricks employed by land based Casinos (lack of windows, free drinks etc), so it's not just the slots working against you.

Still love Vegas tho

 

[TamingTheBeast]

I don't work there anymore, and the platform I ran is no longer in use, so no idea on the number of lines of code (would estimate a few hundred) but I can tell you the model our RNG used.

The core algorithm was a Mersenne Twister, which is a predictable, but fast (back then) pseudo random number algorithm. We used (I think) 36 of them chained in a loop. The Mersenne Twister is predictable after collecting ~600 numbers, so after each twister had generated about 500, one of the RNG's is re-seeded by a 'true' random number generator. This could be our internal one (don't know the algorithm but used white noise in there somewhere I believe), or it could be an integration to a hardware RNG, or one a Casino provided.

When one of the twisters is re-seeded by the 'true' RNG, it then re-seeds the next one etc until the whole loop is re-seeded, and then they go and generate another ~500 numbers each.

Each twister only generates one number and then moves on to the next. This makes sure that no individual player is getting a stream of numbers from the same twister (even if they were the only player using the system).

Making sure the RNG is solid is actually fairly easy, because the RNG has to be accredited every year by an independent body who will deep it 'sufficiently random' for use in the industry. If the RNG is messing up, it will not get accreditation.

However, even this doesn't stop people worrying. I once had to deal with a Casino taking all our games off line, reverse engineering our RNG code and sending it to a 3rd party to analyse. They did this because a couple of people were winning big on Roulette (I think they using Martingale which can give good short term returns if keep a bit of luck). They were convinced the players had worked out how to predict the results and that our RNG was at fault. Their 3rd party pulled the code apart and, predictably, came back with the determination that we were using the Mersenne Twister which is a predictable pseudo RNG and therefore our implementation was flawed.

We spent a couple of days tearing through our code, just to be 1000000% sure there was no vulnerability, and then I spent hours on the phone to numerous senior people at the Casino, with a number of our engineers, explaining exactly how the model worked, how it wasn't possible to get to the required ~600 numbers for prediction, that even if they did, it was all but impossible for an individual to get those numbers from a single twister, especially considering the fact that there were thousands of concurrent players all getting sent random numbers.

I think it ended up with them never putting our games live again. Despite all the evidence we gave them, they just couldn't get past what some random 3rd party had told them. The main issue was that they didn't really understand Roulette, and what's funny is, they weren't the only ones. I would estimate we had worries from 5 or 6 Casino's about Roulette being broken (even using their own RNG's, because they had some big winners). It's frigging Roulette! How does a Casino not understand how that game works? People do win on it sometimes If you take the game down, all you do is stop them from putting their winnings back!

So yeh, anyway, there is how the RNG worked and some fun industry stories about RNG. It's not just players who get suspicious haha.

Thanks so much for this, very interesting. What about language for coding what did you guys used to write? I think you mentioned on another post that it has been a while since you were out of the industry so maybe I'm assuming Actionscript on the UI (because of flash) and what about the back-end ?

 

[The Reel Story]

Thanks so much for this, very interesting. What about language for coding what did you guys used to write? I think you mentioned on another post that it has been a while since you were out of the industry so maybe I'm assuming Actionscript on the UI (because of flash) and what about the back-end ?

Java on the back end. Started with Flash + ActionScript 2.0. Then Flash + ActionScript 3.0, then the transition to mobile/HTML5 was just beginning to bite when I left.

 

[Slotplayer83]

You won't like the answer, but because our experiences are different and filtered through the perspective of our minds and our personalities.

Land based slots are designed and target a different type of player, in general (Trance can probably expand more). So it's not unusual to have someone who likes land based but doesn't like online. The games play and feel different.

However, your experience and my experience differ. I've been to Vegas a few times. Put thousands through the slots. Biggest win I've ever had is probably ~400x. Contrast that to online where my biggest win is over 3000x. My wife's biggest win is over 10000x (DOA2 wildline), and where I've had numerous >500x and >1000X.

So while I agree land based is less volatile, my experience is that I've had a better time online.

Strictly statistically, land based slots have much lower RTP, so while I know you said ignoring RTP, just for clarity, you mathematically have a better chance online.

Also, as was noted, most games in land based are networked these days, and you also have the added complexity of different rules around RTP. Land based often have worse RTP and lower denominations (1c) and better RTP at higher denominations ($1). Also the machines next to the exits are normally lower RTP, designed to drain the last of your money before you leave. Then there are the numerous other psychological tricks employed by land based Casinos (lack of windows, free drinks etc), so it's not just the slots working against you.

Still love Vegas tho

Yes i know and i'm aware that the "max" wins and all that are relatively low compared to the internet. But you'd still can have lots more fun on a smaller basis then online. The amount of deposits ive done over the last few months, i could have proberly walked away with profit from landbased then online. And you dont have to tell us really how landbased apply tricks etc. Like if online brands are'nt designed to lure, suck you in, make you able to cancel a withdrawl, withhold a 48 hours proces etc etc etc or on how fast games are designed to tilt you these days.

 

[jerome26b]

Hello,
I’ve to agree with slotplayer considerations based on experience. I played many years with some games of a specific provider mainly and I can have some experience based about these games as I played probably hundred thousands of spins on some of these games I played quite every days on various casinos. Here’s my finding based on experience (of course impossible to prove) :
- I noticed recently that same game with same RTP behave differently from Casino to casino (even at same stake). I used the browser dev mode to check these RTP of 96%). Its not based on few hours/days no it’s constant. On casino A the game has more wining cycles than casino B. In fact on casino B I was never able to get decent games/wins on that particular game. But same RTP, same stake ? So why ? And why the playing experience is different for the same game ? I practice enough this game to see the difference.
- second point I read a lot about the RTP discussions and the way it’s supposed to work but there’s something else additionally. The games have cycles too. It’s impossible the outcome is random at the moment i click the spin button. There’s some times the game just catch dead spins and some times every spin you push you have wining spins and quite decent wins. So again it’s based on experience but I’m sure many experienced players can confirm that point. My studies are based on some specific games of play’ go provider so I will not généralise that to every provider.
- So there’s for sure a secret ingredient of the full recipe about the RTP behaviour. Of course it will be impossible to prove it and all my assumptions are just based on experience but only inexperience players will continue to argue the outcome is completely random and calculated/gathered at the moment we push the spin button. I suppose they could add some time cycles in the way the game behave. It’s sure that some moments it’s quite impossible to win a particular game at a specific casino and some moments the game can be hot for few days. Based on experience ive this feeling that the game redesigned itself depending of your playing on that game and the amount of money you out in/out. At the end if you don’t put some win/loss limits the game will take all your money back whatever you can do.
- to conclude RTP is one thing but the whole animal work in a different more complicated way. I’m not saying it’s rigged but it works for sure in a kind of different way than what is explained here about RTP.

 

[The Reel Story]

Hello,
I’ve to agree with slotplayer considerations based on experience. I played many years with some games of a specific provider mainly and I can have some experience based about these games as I played probably hundred thousands of spins on some of these games I played quite every days on various casinos. Here’s my finding based on experience (of course impossible to prove) :
- I noticed recently that same game with same RTP behave differently from Casino to casino (even at same stake). I used the browser dev mode to check these RTP of 96%). Its not based on few hours/days no it’s constant. On casino A the game has more wining cycles than casino B. In fact on casino B I was never able to get decent games/wins on that particular game. But same RTP, same stake ? So why ? And why the playing experience is different for the same game ? I practice enough this game to see the difference.
- second point I read a lot about the RTP discussions and the way it’s supposed to work but there’s something else additionally. The games have cycles too. It’s impossible the outcome is random at the moment i click the spin button. There’s some times the game just catch dead spins and some times every spin you push you have wining spins and quite decent wins. So again it’s based on experience but I’m sure many experienced players can confirm that point. My studies are based on some specific games of play’ go provider so I will not généralise that to every provider.
- So there’s for sure a secret ingredient of the full recipe about the RTP behaviour. Of course it will be impossible to prove it and all my assumptions are just based on experience but only inexperience players will continue to argue the outcome is completely random and calculated/gathered at the moment we push the spin button. I suppose they could add some time cycles in the way the game behave. It’s sure that some moments it’s quite impossible to win a particular game at a specific casino and some moments the game can be hot for few days. Based on experience ive this feeling that the game redesigned itself depending of your playing on that game and the amount of money you out in/out. At the end if you don’t put some win/loss limits the game will take all your money back whatever you can do.
- to conclude RTP is one thing but the whole animal work in a different more complicated way. I’m not saying it’s rigged but it works for sure in a kind of different way than what is explained here about RTP.

I doubt I will change your mind, but I used to make these games for a living, and @trancemonkey still does make these games for a living, and we can categorically tell you that RTP works exactly as we've described and that each spin is independent and random.

Your experience is consistent with high volatility games (and recent games are trending towards higher and higher volatility). The behaviour you describe, in terms of the way you believe RTP works, would be illegal and against every major regulation, so there is no point in a Casino implementing this kind of logic when regular, legal maths and statistics do this for them.

 

[Slotplayer83]

so explain the variance in between casino A or B then.

 

[Slottery]

There also are free sofrwares to track your slotplay, doesn't cost anything and running background without taking much resources at all and it would make it very easy to point these patterns. These would be much easier for everyone to agree when backed by actual game data.

For some reason these are not very popular and haven't yet seen anyone willing use these kind of tools to proof these patterns, that would be hard for anyone to say it's not happening if somebody just would bother little bit to save these gameplays and show exactly what happen, then others should be able to replicate same results and make this mystery as fact.

 

[jerome26b]

I really would like to trust you but volatility only will explain some games have hot/cold cycles ? What I explain there’s some moments a game can give literally all dead spins and some other moments could be next day or next week of few hours later sometimes the game will spun wining combinations spin after spin. I can’t explain this behaviour if the events are indépendant and generated at the moment I push the spin button.

 

[Halvor]

so explain the variance in between casino A or B then.

Because a game RTP is not determined on a limited sample, and I somewhat find it hard to believe he hit any sort of critical mass that would give a fair reflection of the RTP in question.

But feel free to provide some stats to backup your claims of how games work, because currently you are just continuing the tinfoilery of Bloatgoat.

And just to add, unlike Trance and The Reel Story I do not work with maths. I do however work with the game concepts, and I have full access to my companies reel strips and a full understanding of how games actually work.

 

[jerome26b]

I don’t use these software for the simple reason I play quite always on my phone ;-). But it could be a good option ... I regularly record some of my sessions of this game to review them afterwards and be able to recognize wining patterns or just remind me the moments I have to avoid playing that game. Usually it’s just waiting some hours, sometimes some days and the game will turn again in more favorable hot cycle. So maybe these hot cycles are just managed by the mathematics beyond ‘volatility’ or ´hit frequency’ but the user experience in fine reflect as hot or cold cycles on some machines. I repeat I don’t généralise cause I play only a limited number of games. My example here is a well known play’ go game.

 

[Slotplayer83]

But you so far speak of a relatively static rtp, proberly tested by one event of a million spins or whatever how you guys test your stuff.

We're talking variances differences of casino's. More important my experience is whenever i "wagered" a certain amount in relation of losing there'd always be a winning cycle in return, this winning cycle does not always guarantee i can kick it through the moon but if i lose enough it'll set me exactly where i should be at some point. I dont withdrawl? Give me less then a week and i'm back at the peak of my previous win + the amount on avg that i depositted in that time in between. I withdrawl? it somehow starts all over again.

It sounds kind of ackward, strange or whatever but thats my repeated experience. I'm just waiting for that moment to occur to start betting big. And usually that works quite well really. but its always hitting a soft limit to be finally hitting a hard limit. And when this hard limit occurs, sky just falls down. End of the fun. No matter what slot you try.

Cant be a cold streak on "all providers" and "all slots". You dont sell me that nonsense.

I can't answer that, those are legal questions from another company.
Maybe Bet have another type of contract with the provider.

Could someone answer me the above, and like what type of contracts are out there really? I'm having a bit of a difficulty to understand why casino A holds game X with a bet cap, and casino B with game X with no bet restriction. Whats in such a contract to have a bet limit imposed?

 

[Halvor]

If thats your repeated experience, then surely it must be easy for you to document and show this to us. I'm sure all 3 of us would be more than happy to review the so called patterns.

 

[jerome26b]

Is it possible there’s different versions of same game at same RTP ? It could explain the different user experience I see from same game same RTP same stake from casino A or casino B ?

 

[jerome26b]

I mean other parameters than RTP like volatility or hit frequency or something else ?

 

[The Reel Story]

so explain the variance in between casino A or B then.

Some games have different RTP versions of them. So Casino A may have a lower RTP version of the game than Casino B. Check the help file to be sure.

If they are the same RTP version, then that's just luck :-/

I really would like to trust you but volatility only will explain some games have hot/cold cycles ? What I explain there’s some moments a game can give literally all dead spins and some other moments could be next day or next week of few hours later sometimes the game will spun wining combinations spin after spin. I can’t explain this behaviour if the events are indépendant and generated at the moment I push the spin button.

That is the nature of randomness. They have peaks and troughs and collections of numbers and repeats etc. Randomness does not mean every number is equally distributed at all times.

But you so far speak of a relatively static rtp, proberly tested by one event of a million spins or whatever how you guys test your stuff.

We're talking variances differences of casino's. More important my experience is whenever i "wagered" a certain amount in relation of losing there'd always be a winning cycle in return, this winning cycle does not always guarantee i can kick it through the moon but if i lose enough it'll set me exactly where i should be at some point. I dont withdrawl? Give me less then a week and i'm back at the peak of my previous win + the amount on avg that i depositted in that time in between. I withdrawl? it somehow starts all over again.

It sounds kind of ackward, strange or whatever but thats my repeated experience. I'm just waiting for that moment to occur to start betting big. And usually that works quite well really. but its always hitting a soft limit to be finally hitting a hard limit. And when this hard limit occurs, sky just falls down. End of the fun. No matter what slot you try.

Cant be a cold streak on "all providers" and "all slots". You dont sell me that nonsense.



Could someone answer me the above, and like what type of contracts are out there really? I'm having a bit of a difficulty to understand why casino A holds game X with a bet cap, and casino B with game X with no bet restriction. Whats in such a contract to have a bet limit imposed?

Statistically speaking, this is what you would expect. 96% RTP means, on average for every £100 you put in, you get £96 back. So if you were hitting statistical norms, you would expect to go back up to or around where you started at some point.

In terms of contracts, it's not normally in there. Casino's can choose to limit their liability. They do that with max win caps, max bet caps etc. It is up to the Casino what they choose. Some Casino's will have bigger businesses and therefore can take more risk, and so will allow higher bets and higher win caps. Some will be smaller and can't take the risk of a 100k DOA cashout wiping out their cash reserves.

Is it possible there’s different versions of same game at same RTP ? It could explain the different user experience I see from same game same RTP same stake from casino A or casino B ?

I mean other parameters than RTP like volatility or hit frequency or something else ?

It's possible I believe, yes. Wazden games often have a 'volatility selector' where you can choose low, medium or high. I don't believe the volatility level has to be published either, but I'm not up to date with the regulations. I doubt this happens much (if at all) though as there wouldn't really be much value in it for the Casino or the game provider (and it would incur additional costs).

 

[trancemonkey]

Some Slots do have a "memory". These slots are persistent state slots or binding feature slots (there are many industry names). They record events that may or may not impact RTP, both on an individual player level but also Progressive Jackpot games can be seen as this too, depending on how you look at it.

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