- Joined
- Jul 24, 2008
- Location
- Great Southern Land
He also states that previous results are never taken into account for the RNG engine when balancing occures. Well - to me this is a contradiction, since a balance algorythm has to use some sort of data. If previous data is not use what do we then use? Future data? And if the goal is 95% payout, which the system will balance somewhere to fullfill, what perspective are we talking here? Is this based on a player session, in $10.000 worth of spins, coin sizes of 10 million spins? It sure seems I meet 95% payout quite quickly when flatbetting any MG casino at $9, do not need 10 million spins to acomplish this.
RTG slots, as with the vast majority of random bricks-and-mortar slots, have RTPs that are the return to player you would receive from the game if every combination in the total cycle of the game hit once and once only, and if every feature probability table hit exactly in line with listed probability (e.g.: If a random pick feature has a 25% chance of awarding 5 free games, 50% of awarding 10 free games and 25% of awarding 15 free games and over the life of the game cycle each hit exactly to those settings).
However, since these are random games you will always get variation from the expected RTP.
Say the top symbol only occurs once on each reel, with each reel being say 30 long, the combinational calculations that the 95% is based on would expect that over the cycle of 24.3M possible combinations this would only hit once.
However it's entirely possible to hit this in consecutive spins, since at no time is there a track of previous results or current RTP from the game that would influence the result of any spin.
We use 95% confidence tables (1.96 standard deviations either side of mean) to determine expected RTP, which on a 95% game can range hugely in small numbers of games and operators know that they stand the chance to be substantially negative on a game (so RTP over 100%).
Over the long term, with large numbers of spins (e.g.: 50 million spins), we'd expect to see the game be pretty close to the 95% RTP.
Individual results over several thousand spins will vary enormously.
For example, Goldbeard might have a table looking like this:
95% Confidence for single credit bet
Games played Range +/- Max Min
1,000 +/-58.528 153.634 36.578
5,000 +/-26.174 121.281 68.932
50,000 +/-8.277 103.383 86.829
1,000,000 +/-1.851 96.957 93.255
50,000,000 +/-0.262 95.368 94.845
That's the way random games work...they're volatile has hell in RTP in small bursts of games...people who believe that playing a couple of thousand spins is going to yield something around 95% every time are gravely mistaken.
The odds are in the house's favour, but by the same token, it means that players can win.
Wooof