Take Note and be warned your MAC is tracked

[ChopleyIOM]

You know the even I, who knows with utmost certainty it's not rigged, still sometimes sits at my computer playing games thinking "God this feels like it's just gone on the take".

And then I go to work and look at the statistical output of my games and guess what... random games can do just that .. randomly.

This fallacy that random games can't go hot and cold and therefore must be rigged...it's at the heart of all the conspiracies

I honestly think this is about the size of it.

I've been playing a LOT of Jacks Or Better VP over at 3Dice recently, chasing the elusive Royal Flush. Outside of the Royal Flush (which pays 800x stake) the paytable is really tame on Jacks Or Better, and the RTP is very solid at 99.54%. (The next pays down from the Royal are 50x and 25x, and they are the 'big wins'!)

3Dice's VP plays perfect optimal strategy on autoplay, so I literally just set it off playing 5 coins at 10p per coin (in real money mode, not demo play), and configure the autoplay to stop on 4OAK or better. (Which pays 25x stake.)

Point being, that even such a low variance, high RTP game can go on really surprising 'hot streaks' and 'cold streaks', some evenings it'll hit multiple 4OAKs in fairly short order, whereas over the weekend I made a 35 mile round trip in the car and stopped to do some shopping on the way back, and it was still lumping away when I got back with no 4OAK.

I've seen my balance go up by 250x stake or more over an extended session, and go down by the same amount, despite never hitting a win of more than 25x stake. (Straight Flushes pay 50x stake but are very rare, I've only had three of them in over 10,000 hands played.)

The thing is, Jacks Or Better VP is an incredibly low variance game, and we know all the pay distributions that make up its RTP. Any slot out there will blow it out of the water variance wise, so if something as tame as Jacks Or Better VP can go on hot and cold streaks, it absolutely stands to reason that all slots, especially the likes of Bonanza, are going to do stuff that'll get people reaching for the tinfoil apparatus.

The chances of getting dealt a Royal Flush in 5 cards (i.e. the initial deal, not the draw after holding) are 1 in 649,740 and yet some folks have been dealt that on their very first game of Video Poker, and it'll most likely never happen to them ever again - it doesn't mean the game is rigged or is 'remembering' that they had a Royal Flush and doesn't want to give them another, it just means that random numbers do some really crazy shit sometimes!

 

[dunover]

I honestly think this is about the size of it.

I've been playing a LOT of Jacks Or Better VP over at 3Dice recently, chasing the elusive Royal
********************************
'remembering' that they had a Royal Flush and doesn't want to give them another, it just means that random numbers do some really crazy shit sometimes!

Yes, they do - I once opened Bonanza up and hit a feature in the first 1560 spins.

 

[trancemonkey]

With all due respect trancemonkey and with no allegation of wrongdoing, but I just can't fathom (and probably many others) that in the era where even the slightest fart on the internet is tracked the industry that relies most on psychology, statistics and numbers is not tracking anything, just because of regulations. Regulations have loopholes and ways to circumvent without breaking the rules.

I come back to a few observations which support the argument that sequences are tracked in some way:

- teaser spins - how on earth does a premium symbol which appears once in dozens of spins only, manage to appear 8/10 exactly one spin later
- 2-scatter teasers - same as above
- bonus teaser when the balance is about 10x bet - how can you not have tens and tens of spins at least one bonus teaser and then exactly on the last 10 spins of your balance it suddenly drops in. I paid attention on the free battles at VS. And it never fails on the last few spins, especially when the RTP in the 100 spins was rather low
- a medium win on the last few spins - try e.g. Bonanza, Donuts, Thunderstruck II and a few more. Your balance is mercilessly heading towards zero only to give you a medium win on the last 2 - 5 spins. And after that, it is straight down again to zero. Happens on average 9/10

The fact that it does not happen every time but in the absolute majority, strengthens the argument of tracking since it would be too obvious to have it every time. IMO, the last two I mentioned are psychological tricks to let the player think something might happen very soon, just one more deposit needed.

For the above to happen with such regularity, there has to be some sort of tracking, programming, coding...you name it, I am no expert on that, which in some way does not infringe the regulations.

It is a combination of anchor bias, confirmation bias, psychological trickery and only looking for the negatives... which we ALL do. You're not unusal.
I've mentioned it before - but i what you were saying about your balance was true, then why not just put €5 in every time and play at €1 a spin. Guaranteed to empty the game right?
Also answer me this - do you pay more attention to your balance when it's running low? Yes - so you are MORE likely to notice "balance savers" because you breath a sigh of relief, and your brain makes a tally of that. Start with €100 and have the same feature with €75 remaining and you're brain will probably not even chalk that one up to remember unless it's a bloody huge win.

I've been part of many studies in to this (as an observer of course) and it's all true - but you don't see it when it is happening to you. You watch people play a session - and then ask them what they recall. The remember the balance savers, the "teasers", the "almost big win" but they forget so much stuff that happens. Ask them how many features they have - they say 3, when actually they had 5. But ask them to describe them they only describe the really bad ones, the really good ones, or the balance savers... never the average ones in the middle.

 

[trancemonkey]

Yes, they do - I once opened Bonanza up and hit a feature in the first 1560 spins.

That's way above average - nutnut has played 8 billion games and hasn't even had a win (probably)

 

[pinnit2014]

That's way above average - nutnut has played 8 billion games and hasn't even had a win (probably)

We can use his stats to finally confirm the RTP over billions of spins and silence the doubters

 

[Harry_BKK]

It is a combination of anchor bias, confirmation bias, psychological trickery and only looking for the negatives... which we ALL do. You're not unusal.
I've mentioned it before - but i what you were saying about your balance was true, then why not just put €5 in every time and play at €1 a spin. Guaranteed to empty the game right?
Also answer me this - do you pay more attention to your balance when it's running low? Yes - so you are MORE likely to notice "balance savers" because you breath a sigh of relief, and your brain makes a tally of that. Start with €100 and have the same feature with €75 remaining and you're brain will probably not even chalk that one up to remember unless it's a bloody huge win.

I've been part of many studies in to this (as an observer of course) and it's all true - but you don't see it when it is happening to you. You watch people play a session - and then ask them what they recall. The remember the balance savers, the "teasers", the "almost big win" but they forget so much stuff that happens. Ask them how many features they have - they say 3, when actually they had 5. But ask them to describe them they only describe the really bad ones, the really good ones, or the balance savers... never the average ones in the middle.

I am not saying someting is done illegaly, nor do I doubt the randomness of the games. There is just too much money at stake for an entire industry to be corrupt. Still, game providers, casino operators etc. can track all sorts of data of which we know little or nothing at all. Whether the data is used or not, is again a different story.

You would be surprised how often I have $1 or so from battle FS and I go on Donut play it down to 50 cents at $0.05, and then increase the bet to $0.10 for the last 5 spins....I don't want to say on every session, but surely 9/10 i will get a pay of $1 - $3 on the last 2 spins, followed by 2 scatters shortly after. And then down to zero. Time and time again the same scenario. It's like the game is programmed to goad players to make a deposit.

You must agree, that you implement psychological elements into the games that make the player wanting to spin more, e.g. teasers, symbol missing the payline by 1 position etc. To do that efficiently, you need IMO some kind of tracking. Maybe I am wrong, and you can code everything without the need for tracking. When the game pulls then an RNG you will know what the win/lose configuration is and then you add stuff around that as you want.

And no, i don't pay more attention when my balance is low. I actually pay more attention to how a game runs when my balance is high because I don't want to lose a big balance. When my balance is low I am getting mentally ready to make the next deposit. So that point is somewhat moot.

I shall track the results for my next 100 or so battles on VS if I find the motivation....yeah, I am a lazy git Here's is one perfect example from just now, up to the last 10 spins of the 100 spins my balance was at 254 points. Pays nearly on every spin of the last 10 and the obligatory two scatter teaser. I did not see 2 scatters for the previous 61 spins. It just happens too often at the end, in my opinion, to be random and for that to make it happen towards the end of the balance there must be some kind of tracking. Just me thinking.

 

[trancemonkey]

I am not saying someting is done illegaly, nor do I doubt the randomness of the games. There is just too much money at stake for an entire industry to be corrupt. Still, game providers, casino operators etc. can track all sorts of data of which we know little or nothing at all. Whether the data is used or not, is again a different story.

You would be surprised how often I have $1 or so from battle FS and I go on Donut play it down to 50 cents at $0.05, and then increase the bet to $0.10 for the last 5 spins....I don't want to say on every session, but surely 9/10 i will get a pay of $1 - $3 on the last 2 spins, followed by 2 scatters shortly after. And then down to zero. Time and time again the same scenario. It's like the game is programmed to goad players to make a deposit.

You must agree, that you implement psychological elements into the games that make the player wanting to spin more, e.g. teasers, symbol missing the payline by 1 position etc. To do that efficiently, you need IMO some kind of tracking. Maybe I am wrong, and you can code everything without the need for tracking. When the game pulls then an RNG you will know what the win/lose configuration is and then you add stuff around that as you want.

And no, i don't pay more attention when my balance is low. I actually pay more attention to how a game runs when my balance is high because I don't want to lose a big balance. When my balance is low I am getting mentally ready to make the next deposit. So that point is somewhat moot.

I shall track the results for my next 100 or so battles on VS if I find the motivation....yeah, I am a lazy git Here's is one perfect example from just now, up to the last 10 spins of the 100 spins my balance was at 254 points. Pays nearly on every spin of the last 10 and the obligatory two scatter teaser. I did not see 2 scatters for the previous 61 spins. It just happens too often at the end, in my opinion, to be random and for that to make it happen towards the end of the balance there must be some kind of tracking. Just me thinking.

View attachment 95149

I don't know the law around free to play tournaments and whether that has to be true maths... my guess is it probably has to be but I'm not certain.

What games providers CAN track is widely known. But what they do track I can't say for certain. However the idea that this then affects the game play is just simply not true.

And of that I'm almost certain... I'll never say 100% certain because I simply don't know what everyone does and I'm sure there are rogue providers and casinos.

But if you play anywhere well regulated then no... i simply don't believe it happens.

 

[SpinUk]

I am not sure what the big argument is about.

Players finding out recently that certain providers are letting casinos choose their own rtp without transparency. Playngo and now recently pragmatic. So now its impossible BTG or MG are doing this too? And there are members here going all in with defending software providers? Still? Really?






Oh but they def dont track your computer or IP. Trust me I know this cause ive changed ips, computers and even went to a friends house to see if the games would play any different. That doesnt cancel they can track your casino account but they def dont track your IP etc.

I will say that once you get a good hit on bonanza it turns into money sucking mode. Not the usual keep you average base game, but actually slaughtering you. I remember this happening every single time when I was doing my failed 1m spin challenge. Was one of the biggest reasons I quit it actually

No... The only feasible explanation is that big wins are rare and most of the time it's running under its target RTP (as do all games) because the big wins account for a proportion of RTP which is rare.

If you have a 96% slot, and 6% of that RTP is in huge base game wins that happen 1 in 50,000 games, and you have 20% in your feature that happens every 500 spins then most of the time you are playing a 70% slot. . and guess what, that means you're going to lose quickly if you're unlucky.

If you get a feature after 500 spins and get the average win of 100x (20% of 500) then you now have a 90% slot. But you'll need to wait another 49,500 games to get that huge big win of 3,000x to make it up to 96%.

So if a huge win of 3,000x happens every 50,000 games, what do you think the chance is of getting two close together?

It CAN happen but it's statistically very unlikely.

Welcome to statistics.

What you have is proof of random. Not proof of rigged.

Best post you have done trance IMO.

Is the above numbers about average across most games (apart from the bonus frequency).

 

[Sonict]

Play any slot by "Booming Games" and OMG, the amount of times you will see 2 out of 3 scatters is very much programmed into the slots IMO. It is possible the reels for reels 1 - 3 just has an insane amount of scatters to do this, but everytime I play them, I get them so often that for me it is the only time that I can't chalk it up to just really unlucky breaks and thus I rarely if ever play slots from that provider. Try playing them in fun mode to see what I mean... In Real Money mode, the same thing occurs as well. :/

 

[Harry_BKK]

I don't know the law around free to play tournaments and whether that has to be true maths... my guess is it probably has to be but I'm not certain.

What games providers CAN track is widely known. But what they do track I can't say for certain. However the idea that this then affects the game play is just simply not true.

And of that I'm almost certain... I'll never say 100% certain because I simply don't know what everyone does and I'm sure there are rogue providers and casinos.

But if you play anywhere well regulated then no... i simply don't believe it happens.

The tournaments are playing the same like in normal play.

I don't think either that whatever is tracked is affecting the game play itself, but rather that it enhances the psychological effect on players.

Anyway, I didn't want to get involved in yet another "rigged games" discussion. I always have and always will like a good "sesh" on the reels and I am well aware that it mostly goes south at some point, sometimes not so badly, sometimes unbearably bad.

Off to my next "fight" on the reels with $9.60 in race winnings on VS. Let's hope I was tracked as the last two weeks were really bad, so thinking logically, I should have a blast tonight!

 

[brianmon]

The tournaments are playing the same like in normal play.

I don't think either that whatever is tracked is affecting the game play itself, but rather that it enhances the psychological effect on players.

Anyway, I didn't want to get involved in yet another "rigged games" discussion. I always have and always will like to have a good "sesh" on the reels and I am well aware that it mostly goes south at some point, sometimes not so badly, sometimes unbearably bad.

Off to my next "fight" on the reels with $9.60 in race winnings on VS. Let's hope I was tracked as the last two weeks were really bad, so thinking logically, I should have a blast tonight!

One thing I noticed when I used to use Slot Tracker, was that VS battle spins were not registered by it, much the same as Demo Play spins aren't.

So I reckon that VS battles are either a special game or a customised version of Demo Play. Rather than Real play, from the Real Play server.

The free spins won from battles do register. But not the battles themselves.

 

[trancemonkey]

Best post you have done trance IMO.

Is the above numbers about average across most games (apart from the bonus frequency).

No not at all average... every game is different. It was a very very loose guess at what Bonanza might be...but it was mainly for example...

 

[mack341]

This may not be possible from a mathematical standpoint but what if a game's 'variance' rather than set in stone was also random, and under the control of the random number generator, maybe play would feel less scripted and predictable?

 

[TheAddict]

My favourite example to show people how unintuitive probability can be is the old Monty Hall problem:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?"

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Any game where you open doors and goaty is hiding behind some of them ready to sarcastically torture you for picking the wrong one should be banned.

 

[dogshead1]

And no, @dogshead1, they tell you it will even out eventually because that's statistics. That comment in and of itself proves you have zero understanding of slot statistics.

What you actually WANT the game to do (and you don't realise this) is not be random, you want it rigged. Because you don't want the losing period after a big win, but big wins are rare so of course you are more likely not to have a other one and the game is likely to "go on the take".

I used to make compensated games and we would go out of our way to make sure the games DIDN'T go on long losing streaks because we didn't want players to be able to too easily work out the game had paid out.

So the idea that you have somehow proved rigged is laughable. You've actually done the exact opposite and yet you don't realise - because you're adamant you're right and no amount of evidence or knowledge will sway you.

So if you want a grown up debate about statistics and why your data proves random I'm happy to talk to you... in here, another thread or PM me.

I can't help notice that trancemonkey you keep pulling little snippets of my posts then spinning them into a personal attack!!!
Have I upset or offended you somewhere down the line??? other than question the online gambling industry. We do not know what goes on behind closed doors as the same you don't know who I really am or my background and I don't know who you really are or yours.

As for me quoting your above. I have complete understanding of statistics and RNG, math, probabilities and so forth. I was a professional poker play at Pokerstars for 4 years before they ran into millions of debt with the US government for tax infringements. I was part of staking network which generated millions of rake for the company. Since I quit for having my account hacked by spy software and intruders remotely accessing my Laptop when playing at the tables I have been playing recreational and have hundreds of thousands of tracked data that proves patterns and statistics are deviating out of the norm by 4-5% which has a huge impact on eventual profit margins for me and a huge increase for them in terms of rake and distributing the money around their customer base accounts. They advertise their shuffle is random tested and certified. What they don't and will never have tested it the outcomes and what happens after the shuffle. Where 2/3s of the deck are left open to manipulating by clever coding. Does not take a genius to work out that when you load up turbo games 18, 45 mans specifically they all finish at roughly the same time. This would be near impossible without manipulation and intervention to the game.

You quote I want to win all the time errrm no I don't and I've given no reason to suggest that. What I've highlighted and your struggling to accept here is the evidence I've posted where after large wins and cash out the RTP has dropped near Identical in all situations. In the case of bonanza 62%. This could be expected if I was and this here is the big factor the whole of the players online playing the same game at the same time experienced the same drop in RTP. But I can bet my bottom dollar it does not act in this way. I along with many others are coming forth with evidence statistically through tracked data that there is a pattern and common theme that is individual account related after large wins and cash outs. Where is the randomness in this statistic I ask you????????

 

[TheresNoDInBonanza]

I can't help notice that trancemonkey you keep pulling little snippets of my posts then spinning them into a personal attack!!!

No he isn't.

Ihave complete understanding of statistics and RNG, math, probabilities and so forth.

No, you don't.

 

[dogshead1]

No he isn't.

No, you don't.

Wow you too!

And yes he is

 

[TheresNoDInBonanza]

Wow you too!

And yes he is

No one's attacking you personally, we are disagreeing with you.

 

[slotmaster]

Got to be another full moon online again.

 

[Nicola]

An interesting thread to read, the only thing I want to throw into the discussion is the following.

Over the years, providers have admitted on CM that your IP ADDRESS is sent along (and logged) with each spin you do. In my opinion I do believe some gaming proviers do log if you have a big win (1000x and so on) and then prevent you from having another huge win until your RTP falls back some.

Just a few years ago, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 admitted they blocked people from taking part (but still took money) on premium rate numbers for varying periods of 40 minutes to 2 hours after they had a win.

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[dunover]

An interesting thread to read, the only thing I want to throw into the discussion is the following.

Over the years, providers have admitted on CM that your IP ADDRESS is sent along (and logged) with each spin you do. In my opinion I do believe some gaming proviers do log if you have a big win (1000x and so on) and then prevent you from having another huge win until your RTP falls back some.

Just a few years ago, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 admitted they blocked people from taking part (but still took money) on premium rate numbers for varying periods of 40 minutes to 2 hours after they had a win.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

And how exactly would they action this without having a secret alternative pool of values for each slot so the RNG could no longer pick big wins, or there were less winning values in that pool? It would be tantamount to fraud. Your IP is logged for gaming reasons and to provide a gaming log plus proof in any bonus disconnects etc.

You've really fed the hatters here!!!

 

[goatwack]

Who knew

Never had Nicola down as a flamer

 

[dogshead1]

And no, @dogshead1, they tell you it will even out eventually because that's statistics. That comment in and of itself proves you have zero understanding of slot statistics.

What you actually WANT the game to do (and you don't realise this) is not be random, you want it rigged. Because you don't want the losing period after a big win, but big wins are rare so of course you are more likely not to have a other one and the game is likely to "go on the take".

I used to make compensated games and we would go out of our way to make sure the games DIDN'T go on long losing streaks because we didn't want players to be able to too easily work out the game had paid out.

So the idea that you have somehow proved rigged is laughable. You've actually done the exact opposite and yet you don't realise - because you're adamant you're right and no amount of evidence or knowledge will sway you.

So if you want a grown up debate about statistics and why your data proves random I'm happy to talk to you... in here, another thread or PM me.

All the highlighted is a personal attack. Secondly Not once in this thread have I suggested that I have proof the slots are rigged. That is a bending of what the tile of the thread is and the discussion is about. You can continue to your hearts content to discredit myself and others but statistics don't lie and reveal unusual and hidden things.

 

[trancemonkey]

All the highlighted is a personal attack. Secondly Not once in this thread have I suggested that I have proof the slots are rigged. That is a bending of what the tile of the thread is and the discussion is about. You can continue to your hearts content to discredit myself and others but statistics don't lie and reveal unusual and hidden things.

It's not a personal attack... It's saying your wrong, disagreeing with you and saying why you're wrong.

Feel free to flag the post and lets see if the mods agree. If they do, I will be happy to apologise

 

[trancemonkey]

And how exactly would they action this without having a secret alternative pool of values for each slot so the RNG could no longer pick big wins, or there were less winning values in that pool? It would be tantamount to fraud. Your IP is logged for gaming reasons and to provide a gaming log plus proof in any bonus disconnects etc.

You've really fed the hatters here!!!

Your IP is probably also logged in case of illegal activity for AML purposes ..