If you just want to do one offer and play it safe that's right - but otherwise there's no long-term difference if you bet more and get through the wagering quicker. In fact busting out earlier playing bonus offers means you wager less, lose less to the house edge and have a slightly better expected return.zeronero said:In order for that to happen you must bet the smallest amount possible everytime in order to play to most hands possbile to make to the odds work.
If you want to make real money in BJ you need to play with bonuses that allow BJ. Otherwise you'll lose what the house edge dictates in the long-run, whatever strategy you follow.zeronero said:It's hard to keep betting the same amount over and over, and if your going to make any real money in BJ you need to vary your bet which makes using the mathematical odds pointless anyway. It's a catch 22 situation
Ok, lets say we want to estimate the expected value EV (negative) of a black jack hand and that we know the standard deviation SD a priori (it's ~1.16 for vegas strip BJ).zman said:I have had over 15 sessions making 14 losses and 1 win.
Can i ask how much hands of BJ gives a good spread? Enough to show what the odds are for that BJ game, im gonna play vegas strip BJ.
Just what I was trying to say Note to zman: you might want to use a higher starting balance - oh, and I hope you haven't got too much planned for the next 70 years!raol said:Ok, lets say we want to estimate the expected value EV (negative) of a black jack hand and that we know the standard deviation SD a priori (it's ~1.16 for vegas strip BJ).
The result R after N hands flatbetting the amount x, is a normally distributed variable with mean N*EV*x and standard deviation sqrt(N)*SD*x.
Now, R/(N*x) has mean EV and standard deviation SD/sqrt(N).
If we want e.g. a 99 % confidence interval, we get the interval R/(N*x) 2.85*SD/sqrt(N)
So if we want get an estimate of EV with an error margin of 0.0001 (0.01 %) and a 99 % confidence level, we need to choose N such that
2.85*SD/sqrt(N) < 0.0001 => N > 1 092 963 600
If we only need an error margin of 0.001 (0.1 %) and a 95 % confidence level, we get
1.96*SD/sqrt(N) < 0.001 => N > 5 169 256
The standard BJ at most casinos will be something like 4-6 deck & the strategy tables at Wizardofodds should give the strategy for the standard game. The rules for the game in question should tell you how many decks there are, but places like RTG casinos can alter the number of decks and don't tell you. Anyway, except for 1-deck BJ (which has some unusual exceptions), the strategy's not really going to change much as you increase the number of decks (right up to an "infinite" number of decks). The odds just get slightly worse.antibes said:I'm a newbe - how do you know if they are using 6 deck or 1 deck though. Just had a look and apart from Intercasino it doesn't say.
If you have A34 that's the same as A7 (or "soft 18") for the purposes of the strategy chart. What you do depends on the dealer's card. If you look at the Cryptologic chart you stand if he has 2, 7 or 8. You hit 9, 10 and A. I think the case you're thinking of is if the dealer has 3, 4, 5 or 6. It says Ds, which means double if you can, otherwise stand. So if you have A7 you should be able to double. If you have A34 you won't be able to double, so you stand.antibes said:Also A7, for example, if it says to double - if you have A34 - do you hit or stand?
I can't see the slightest difference between being an advantage player playing slots or something like stud poker (as you say you are) & being an advantage player playing BJ - except the latter should make a bit more money. Anyway, I don't think there are any games bonus hunters don't play nowadays (except possibly keno), so you're a bit out of dateKasinoKing said:So I would say 'be careful'... but then I have great disrespect for anyone who 'abuses' bonuses by only playing BJ to try to achieve minimum loss and pinch as much of the bonus money as possible...
If you flatbet the amount x, N times, on blackjack, you will get the standard deviation sqrt(N)*x*1.16. Your expected loss (mean) will be 0.36%*N*x (or whatever the HA is).frafi said:then explain it for us.
Evaluate what risks are involved in playing according to a particular strategy.frafi said:What do you do with all this mathematical information?