I believe he uses a German to English translator, hence the "gibberish".
His 5 posts ALL relate to bot issues at CC. He raised a complaint lat Autumn, and was initially banned as a "fraudulent player" for himself using a Blackjack bot at CC, however, later was paid on appeal after it was argued the "proof" was open to debate.
The proof was complete rubbish. Which does draw into question any claims by Casino Club that players are using bots. It seems that this is a convenient get-out clause for any big winner.
And more so given that the player was banned without the opportunity of a comeback or
expert analysis by an independent third party.
What was even MORE interseting was that kmiss analysed the playlogs from this session, and claimed that it showed that CC software played differently for runs of "flat betting", but that it was possible to somehow "shock the system" by raising the bet at opportune moments, almost like a "Clairvoyant bot".
I don't find that interesting. I find it to be 'finding
. People are EXTREMELY bad at generating or recognising random data.
Have you ever played a (social) card game where the cards end up in order? When you shuffle you need to be especially thorough. If you check the cards to see if you've done a good job you'll probably interpret runs of cards as evidence that you have not yet done a good job, and perhaps move the offending cards to another part of the deck.
The thing is though that such patterns are inherent in random data.
Heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails is very very unlikely in random data, and if you experienced it online, it would be pretty good evidence that the game is not fair (if it went on long enough, it would be concrete, cast iron PROOF).
Now we have claims from CC that this "other"? German player used such a "Clairvoyant bot" to not just play, but PREDICT the outcomes in advance, and presumably bet accordingly. I had initially put this down to flawed translation, since this was an English translation of a German post; however a "proper" translation also spoke in no uncertain terms of the bot being able to PREDICT THE OUTCOME, rather than simply play perfect strategy.
But that is quite simply bollocks.
Such a thing is impossible. The analysis presented in the heffeman's thread is of no value at all.
What is this supposed to mean?
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"Out of 1446 hands there were the following 'streaks'
Winning streak:
6,4,4,4,5,6,5,7,9,6,4,4,8,4,6,5,7,5,4,4,5,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,4,4,4,5,4
Losing streak:
4,4,4,7,5,5,6,4,4,5,4,5,4,6,4,15,4,6,4,4,4,4,6,5,4,4,4,9,6,10,7,4,4,5,9,4,5"
So?
I made a random number generator with a similar return to blackjack, and I got the following 'streaks':
wins
"4,4,4,5,4,5,6,4,5,4,4,4,5,6,4,5,6,4,4,5,6,7,3,"
losses
"4,6,4,10,4,4,7,4,5,11,4,5,4,4,5,4,6,5,4,5,5,5,6,5,5,4,5,5,4,5,4,4,5,5,4,18,4,4"
And? What does it prove? The answer is nothing.
Each hand is independent and random, and is not correlated with another hand.
If that is not the case, then Boss Media as software provider are utterly incompetent as programmers and all of the casinos using their software should be shut down immediately.
I don't believe this to be the case of course, I am just pointing out that a stream of numbers means nothing, and 'streaks' are just 'patterns in randomness'.
My prediction, circumstantial of course, is that our heffernan and the 167,500 winner are associated in some way, perhaps by both being members of some kind of "advantage player community".
On what basis? They both come from the same country?
Hmm, wonder why that would be.
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The Casino Club, the dominant on-line casino in German-speaking markets. Larger than William Hill, Sportingbet and Bet 365 from a single market position, The Casino Club boasts 58,000 active customers and more than 100,000 registered users. The associated Casino-Club magazine is well respected among roulette enthusiasts and currently has a circulation of over 100,000.
Gaming VC provides a proven business model and is a leading online gaming operator in German speaking countries.
His post here berating the behaviour of CC's lawyers for their actions in this compared to another case where the player was eventually paid is what aroused my suspicions. Oddly enough, heffernan was originally branded a fraud by the Meister, before himself getting paid by CC, who were also accusing him of bot play.
Heffernan took no bonus. He played blackjack with massively high bets and got lucky, such is gambling. This happens in Las Vegas every night of the week. How do they respond? With free plane tickets, a complimentary suite and dinner on the house. What happened to heffernan? He got kicked out, accused of fraud, and had his winnings confiscated.
In case this isn't clear: If (despite the evidence that heffernan is a degenerate gambler betting stupidly high stakes on a casino advantage game who should have the red carpet rolled out to him by any sensible casino) it was possible for Heffernan to make a profit by using a bot, then CASINO CLUB SHOULD BE CLOSED DOWN IMMEDIATELY, and with it all other casinos using the same software - because if the game is predictable, it is not random, it is not fair, and the casino is ripping off all its players.
And as for the German poster, in both threads, it's hardly proof of some sort of conspiracy of Germans (perhaps they will get together and cook us some bratwurst?), but pretty normal given that Casino Club are a German casino primarily, and even send out emails to English players in German!
Perhaps I have missed something, this is after all an issue that spans several pages of several threads, and is far bigger than I had thought before last Autumn.
The point to take away is that casino games are completely random, and each hand is independent from every other. If you've lost eight hands on the trot, don't increase your stakes thinking you'll win the ninth, because your chance of winning is exactly the same as it was when you started.
One Microgaming/Playtech/Boss casino is as good as any other (for 'luck', if not for payouts and service), all those posts about people saying they are not doing as well as they used to are just experiencing normal luck.
BTW, here's a graph of Heffernan's balance:
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Looks like this particular clairvoyant is about as accurate as Mystic Meg. There's a near-10,000 euro downswing there!
And with the player playing at least 240 500-euro hands, what would you say the standard deviation is of that play? That is a measure of normal +- loss from the average (which happens to be a loss of about 600 for 240 hands).
The answer is sqrt(240) * 1.15 * 500 = 8900 euros. That's ONE standard deviation. Only 68% of results lie within one standard deviation of the mean for a normal distribution! In other words 68% of results lie between 8900 euros above and ~ 8900 euros below the mean - i.e. between a 9500 euro LOSS and a 8300 WIN.
For two standard deviations, it would be +- 17,800 euros. And results outside even those scary looking numbers are nothing unusual. You need to be getting up to some pretty crazy numbers to be sure (or at least 99.999999%)
It's VERY clear to me, that Casino Club don't have a clue what they are doing, given that they took a player who had bet like a degenerate for hours on end, happened to come out on top, and decided to accuse him of fraud.
They clearly can't:
* identify whether a player has used a bot or not
* retain a very profitable gambler who is prepared to play at 500 euros a hand and should have had the red carpet rolled out
* understand basic probability.
This doesn't speak well of them at all, they blatantly don't understand the way the business they are in works.
As for the present case, the claims that the player has used a bot, given past experience (that Casino Club chose to accuse a (potentially very profitable) player of fraud simply because he won and had played for a long time), the casino's word should NOT be taken as true, for the reason that it wasn't in the past, and in fact their claims that that player did were
fatal to the credibility of their business, because the only way that a player can profit without a bonus on blackjack is if they are not dealing fair games, so
they were effectively saying that their games are not fair and that the player was exploiting that.