After winning at MG - Get the hell out!

[EasyRhino]

I analyze my sessions before I deposit. I figure the rules of the bonus and the edge of the various games I will be playing, as well as "target" bankroll amounts, and bet sizes.

Once I'm actually playing, it's all just the same damn wackiness that you always see when your'e gambling.

 

[Simmo!]

I analyze my sessions before I deposit.

Damn that's clever. Think of all the money I could save me

 

[steinhaug]

I would be interested in how these stats are ripped from Playcheck. It's a huge pain, while cut 'n' paste is OK, it becomes impossible for large data sizes of several thousand spins, which is just what would be needed for a decent analysis.

If you contact MG you will get an exported file from them, with all the data. I got one of theese files at one time, however I havnt trimmed my script to work against that file. One time at Spin Palace I forgot to dump the stats so they vanished from the playcheck account, one email to vip@ and I got an export from MG.

As you point out, it's a little time consuming to cut'n'paste large sessions, however you don't loose any while cut'n'pasting, If your familiar using ALT+TAB and maby have two monitors - it really goes quite fast if you do it a little here and there. And as you know - it's so rewarding when you spin through the stats and get the overview;

You can also, while casino is spinning, log into playcheck from the webpage to the casino - and do some multitasking, Sp you can spin, and cut'n'paste from the playcheck account.

 

[steinhaug]

Damn that's clever. Think of all the money I could save me

I also analyze earlier sessions, since as mentioned before - looking at the complete dataset from a casino you will notice that there infact are certain wagering sizes that pay out much more than others. The people in here saying it's totally random just needs to realize that MG is a CPU programmed with logic, and it's only fair to look more into it. I have I think 150.000 spins worth of data from Spin Palace lying in my backup system, and its pretty obvious that certain coinsizes just down give you profit, while others do.

That is, as an example - if you want to win - you do 20 spins on €5 and not on €10. Sure, it could be luck, but when you see a clear pattern that usually you get the freespins on €5 in 30 rolls, while never on €10 - why the heck should you keep gambling on €10?

Let me be plain and hard once. Sorry ... but: for me this is nothing but paranoia. ok: i could say: frustration of a player, who has lost money. Why do we have to discuss such stuff, which has no substance?

I hear you, however what you are saying is that you have 100% trust in MG that they are playing fair. That there are no tricks up their sleeves to jack players like me. What tyhe overall payout in the end is, wven if correctly 99% doesnt help if the odds are skewed in the process. Like I mentioned earlier, like in Spin Palace I could always get the bonus on Good to Go on €7 (7 lines 1 dollar). Never other bet sizes, but on that it fell in almost every time after loosing +500 in other games. If you pick that price in that game +15 times during some months that is just strange. But hey, sure it's very random.

And, the patterns I'm referring to differ from casino to casino it seems. Where a coinsize is great in one casino, it's not great in another one.

And, if the casino is tight, you don't win anyways - the correct coin size is usefull when the casino is willing to pay.

Anyways - I find this very interesting since I'm a sucker for statistics, and because I work against complete datasets from each casino - not just the "cool" og "bad" sessions. Complete data, or copmparing sessions from day to day - it's truly interesting.

 

[thetic]

Before I start let it be clear that not a regular slots player so I am prepared to be flamed if anything here out of order!

I am with the paranoid android crowd here and, while I feel for you, think you're being selective in information you are providing. I play BJ mainly and could show you sessions where I have won 73% and omit to show you the previous session where I won 130% to give a schewed view. The number of times deposits & profits from good sessions at 5 a hand have quickly dissapeared when stakes have been increased to 10 for example are too many to count. These also tend to stick in your throat more than when the upward trend continues and you withdraw at a healthy position.

I also had a quick trawl through the data you provided and can see no sign of the 6,000+ worth of winners screenshots you have posted for Hitman & Inca within the data.

Have you looked at the period over the few days you were playing rather than just the losing session? If not, have you calculated your return over the entire period?

I am unclear as to how exactly you have calculated your win % but surely putting it down as a list of winnings at different bet sizes is not accurate way of doing it? If you hit a cold slot (is this right phrase Simmo, Cheeky Monkey etc???) and you keep upping your stakes and it doesn't come good this will have a huge impact on your win %.

No matter what the bet size it should balance out over time but you can have a huge variance when looking at a few hundred spins at 5, a few hundred at 8 etc. I assume you will be winning well from now on as you will only be placing bets of the size that is going to give you regular winners!!

To see how the machine is really playing should you not take all the data back to a single even stake and see how it would have played out if you had played all spins at 1 for example?

I would also echo the other advice to get yourself a casino where you can flush your withdrawals and don't repeat this (& previous!!) mistakes. Have been there myself and now avoid places that won't flush my withdrawals on request. I can understand that some players like this option but to deny it when it is asked for by a player is reason enough to tell them to stick their casino. Plenty out there who will treat you better in this and many other areas....

I apologise again if my post is ignorant but trying to get a clearer understanding of the maths which I have not grasped yet!

 

[steinhaug]

Thanks for your notes, however i think you have miunderstood me and what I am trying to point out.
Attached you find the entire bankroll on Classic Casino, together with accumulated stats whith
the total payout is 95% now, so many of you would say - see - I told you. Thats not my point,
my point is that overall we should not have 95% all the time, some should have low and some should
have high - else we are all screwing ourselv bigtime.

My point however - is the MG software behaviour - AFTER - winning big! This is where I find it
disturbing. So because I won - I am supposed to loose it all to backtrack the overall payout %?

..think you're being selective in information you are providing...

As noted, Im not being selected as the point of this post is what behaviour MG software displays after winning big.

The number of times deposits & profits from good sessions at 5 a hand have quickly dissapeared when stakes have been increased to 10 for example are too many to count.

You dont find this odd, given that the system is supposedly 100% RNG?

I also had a quick trawl through the data you provided and can see no sign of the 6,000+ worth of winners screenshots you have posted for Hitman & Inca within the data.

Attached you find the classic-07-all.txt.bz2.zip file, complete playcheck history for your comfort. Had to BZ2 it before zipping sinze ZIP itself couldnt bring the file below 100kb.

If you hit a cold slot (is this right phrase Simmo, Cheeky Monkey etc???) and you keep upping your stakes and it doesn't come good this will have a huge impact on your win %.

As mentioned earlier, do we play on 1 slot with 180+ skins, or 180+ slots? Seems to me if MG is cold, all slots are cold and visa versa. Again, my reason for this post and the reason for stats.

To see how the machine is really playing should you not take all the data back to a single even stake and see how it would have played out if you had played all spins at 1 for example?

Good question, take HoHoHo as an example, this machine really enjoys 15 bets. This I know from Spin Palace aswell, however it doesnt like more than max 10 spins. If you dont get the freespins during the first 10 drop it, but don't overplay this machine since it will destroy your %. I have had several 1000+ wins on this with this teqnique. remember slotster and others had a feeling on Golden Goose... Obviously there are more tricks to this trade,

Oki, Cleared some up I think.

 

[thetic]

My point however - is the MG software behaviour - AFTER - winning big! This is where I find it
disturbing. So because I won - I am supposed to loose it all to backtrack the overall payout %?


As noted, Im not being selected as the point of this post is what behaviour MG software displays after winning big.


You dont find this odd, given that the system is supposedly 100% RNG?

Good question, take HoHoHo as an example, this machine really enjoys 15 bets. This I know from Spin Palace aswell, however it doesnt like more than max 10 spins. If you dont get the freespins during the first 10 drop it, but don't overplay this machine since it will destroy your %. I have had several 1000+ wins on this with this teqnique. remember slotster and others had a feeling on Golden Goose... Obviously there are more tricks to this trade,

Oki, Cleared some up I think.

Thanks for reply kimss makes it a little clearer but my short answer is yes would expect to lose it all (over time) to get the % back to the expected payout. Whatever game you play (without bonuses, luck or "tricks of the trade") in the long run you should end somewhere around the expected overall payout %. When they calculate the payout % do you not think the 4,500 Euro wins on Hitman for example are not considered when they come to the 95% figure?? They are so over time you can expect to get poor runs to balance this out. It could come directly after your big win as has happened in this case, at a later date or even before your big win but it will come.

As stated previously only dabble at slots so can't comment on tricks to this trade but if you are down 15,000 Euros in last few months are they are obviously not working as well as you'd imagine.

I also don't know about slotster's feelings and will go do a search but would suggest that most of us had feelings that a good run, win etc. was coming. Once in a while it will happen more through fortune than judgement but this doesn't validate the strategy!

Going to bow out of this thread now as don't think suitably qualified but certainly can't get my head around the logic!

Good luck and next time get that withdrawal flushed or throw the computer in the bath so the withdrawal is not reversible by the time you go out, buy a new computer with the winnings and set it up.

Away off to simmo's site now to learn how to play slots....

 

[Pinababy69]

So because I won - I am supposed to loose it all to backtrack the overall payout %?

I would say absolutely yes. That's how you come out with a 95% payout overall. It's how the software balances everything out. Like I said, if you keep playing, it's only common sense that you're going to lose it all back. You cannot keep winning forever. The trick is to quit while you're ahead.

Thetic, I don't think you're underqualified at all. I think you have a perfect grasp of the concept. It's really what I was trying to get at in my previous post, but just didn't explain it very well.

I've seen me do it myself. I'll deposit say $25 and go to Thunderstruck. Many times I have turned that $25 into $100 or $150 in the first 100 or so spins. If I were smart, I'd leave the game. But no....... I stick with it and what happens? It goes cold and I hit nothing for 400 spins or more, and proceed to lose alot or most of it back. Is that a rigged RNG? No...it's variance and common sense. The game giveth, the game taketh away more.

Anytime you quadruple your money (or more), you should really cashout at least your profit. But as Cheeky has mentioned before, it all depends on if you've had your fix or not...and 100 spins isn't enough of a fix for me.

 

[thetic]

OK, gone back on my word and here's another post and missed My Name Is Earl in the process (thank you Sky+!!!)

I picked 2 samples to have a look at figures to see how the increasing & decreasing in bets is affecting things and while not representative it shows how the payout will change overall if you vary your bet sizes.

1st took a winning slot - the Avalon data where you made a profit of 272.1 Euros.
If you Prorata all the data to compare to 1 unit level stakes by multiplying the no. of spins by the winnings and divide by the wager you would have finished with 597 units from the 592 units spun (100.8% payout). So you have landed lucky and won an extra 267 units by varying your wager.

2nd took a losing slot - the Ladies Nite data where you lost 1278.04 Euros
Using the same formula you would have finished with 1551 units from the 1701 spins (91.2% payout) If you use the 3819.39 payout from 5096.42 wagered this is only a payout of 74.93%

Is the 74.93% I have calculated the same methodology you used to calculate the overall % you complaining about after the big win? I can't be arsed going through all the data but think you would get an entirely different answer to your payout % if you compared all spins to the same level stake.

It should level out over time but you need the bankroll to sustain this and looking at the data there are a lot less spins at the higher value spins (understandably) than the lower value spins. If you play 500 spins at 1-2 and then move onto 36 spins and bail out after 27 spins because you don't hit anything and don't want to risk anymore wagers at this level and drop back down this is going to have huge impact on payout.

As with all strategies when it works for you, you will do OK but there will come a time when it hurts you. Martingale is prime example of when you get regular wins you will be ok but when the long losing streak comes, as it will, you are donald ducked.

 

[silkprint]

The trick is to quit while you're ahead.

And that is the whole secret of gambling right there ​

 

[steinhaug]

Well, I must say I dissagree with you. I understand I might be alone in this boat, but let me clarify.

Is the 74.93% I have calculated the same methodology you used to calculate the overall % you complaining about after the big win?

I made that figure by taking total win devided on total wager, which probably is the same. This is the way the casino calculates their payout anyways.

Then, here is my point. I know you, and many others in here, think I am complaining because the overall payout is on track with 95% if you look at total winnings compared to total wagering during the entire session (all spins in Classic Casino). This is not my point at all, my point is - just because I had a big win - this doesnt mean that the software should squeeze the payout % back to 95% before something happends again. That is, I have a feeling that the software is penalizing the player after a win with getting extra tight.

If this is the case, it doesnt help much that you mention that the overall payout is 95% in the end, because being lucky is after all one of the reasons we are playing. If the software penalizes you after a win - this infact means that online gambling is meaningless if you catch my drift here. In real world - if you win a big win - and you let other players loose lots after - you accually have a slim chance in winning big again. In MG it seems, atleast for me, that you are playing against yourself all the time. Maby thats why you only can have 1 account, not to skew the stats in the MG cycle?

Sure, I have a theory here, byt looking at the Spin Palace data from last year I tend to get the same impression.

Are you getting my drift here or am I off the chart in your opinion? If you think Im only complaining, some data studying on complete sessions would easily proove or disproove this.

 

[happygobrokey]

you lose it back because you

A) continue playing, and

B) more often than not bump up your bet size.

say you do 499 spins @ $1. your balance began at 200 and is down to 140then on the 500th spin you hit a sweet bonus round for 260 putting you up to 400 total, twice what you started with. if you now up your bet to $5, you will lose it five times as fast, and it will still on average take the same number of spins to get a bonus round again. but you can't afford to do that many spins at that level to realize the greater payoffs from the new bet level. if you resume spinning after a big win, you will lose a (quite likely large) portion back. i just heard an interesting stat: 70% of gamblers get ahead of the casino in their session. 9/10 of those 70% will lose those profits back in the session. so 30/100 players get beaten up by the house (never getting ahead), 63/100 let a guaranteed win slip away (could be as small as one unit however as i saw these stats on tv and was not clear what sort of profit), and a mere 7/100 gamblers leave the casino floor holding a profit. intriguing.

 

[wanda5]

reality bites

I hate to even touch this because it just makes it more "real" to me but I will tell you that a few years ago a friend and I were playing at a MG casino... after I got $25 up over 10k I called her and she signed up & went to the same casino. I had won over $900 in Spring Break and it went TOTALLY cold. I mean COLD...I did 1300 spins NEVER getting the bonus round while my friend who was also playing Spring Break kept getting the spins & winning & losing, but STILL she was getting the bonus round..... same casino, same game, playing at the same time in different cities. We then went to other games...same thing, she would get the bonus rounds or win and I got NOTHING but an ass kicking...and her laughing over the phone while she was winning! I ended up cashing out about $3k so I was still happy but that little experiment has always haunted me.

It made me realize SOMEthing is not right, I'm not sure how it works but that was CRAZY. It creeped us BOTH out.

Honestly, the only time I have ever won big more than losing big was when I skipped from casino to casino, cashing out right when I won over $50 more than my deposit. It was sooo fun having cash ins coming from so many places. Some were not big but it was an AWESOME feeling!

Funny, I just totally forgot about all those experiences and recently stuck to ONE casino back to back and of course I won huge in the first deposit and then never seemed to win again until I would spend thousands.

Yeah, it could all be a coincedence but getting the hell out is something I need to remember again. Its just hard when you are limited to so few casinos who will pay people in the US.

My husband believes there is a sliding scale that pays a high % when you are new and the payout % drops as you deposit...does make sense to me unfortunately. I will keep playing because I LOVE it...but I want to try and find more casinos to "drop in" at.

Anyway my two cents is that "gettin the hell out" is great advice.

 

[refre]

Hi all. If MG casinos does indeed perform the way described by kimss here, how long should I wait before going back to a casino where I've had a big win? Two days? Three days? Till I get may cashout? Is the "system" ever "reset"?

In kimss' case where he won 8000 euros, there would be no sense in going back EVER again, if the casino takes back what you won BEFORE awarding any wins. Same goes for wanda5's win.

Thanks guys.

 

[SlotsWizard]

Hi all. If MG casinos does indeed perform the way described by kimss here, how long should I wait before going back to a casino where I've had a big win? Two days? Three days? Till I get may cashout? Is the "system" ever "reset"?

In kimss' case where he won 8000 euros, there would be no sense in going back EVER again, if the casino takes back what you won BEFORE awarding any wins. Same goes for wanda5's win.

Thanks guys.

There is no programmed punishment period or "the player must lose everything they have won before they can win again" logic coded into the games or RNG. I feel confident in saying that if any gaming software has such a thing coded into it, it would NOT be Microgaming. Personally, I find Microgaming software to be the fairest, most random, most entertaining, most realistic and most fun when compared to any other software provider. Their slots pay far better than B&M and most other online slots, and the table & VP games feel fair, natural and truly random.

The Fine Print
I have formed my opinions based solely on my experience as a player. I have no financial interest in MG or any other software type. I did try becoming an affiliate last year, but my timing was bad because my site went live only a couple months before the UIGEA debacle. I never made a dime from it, and I abandoned it shortly after the UIGEA was signed into law.

 

[vinylweatherman]

It does stretch credibility when one can perform such an experiment with the same game, same casino, side by side. Provided enough spins go through, it seems odd that the RNG allocates good spins and bad spins with such a negative bias against a player who has just won big. I would have expected the good & bad spins to be roughly evenly distributed between the two. This experiment indicates the RNG is using something about the player environment as part of the seed for the outcome, and this brings us to the streaky nature of Microgaming, where the casino is either for you, or against you, and can persist in a certain state for days.

I once did an experiment with the Casino Action "wheel of cash", and was able to prove to my own satisfaction that it was not quite as "random" as it was supposed to be, with me achieving the max of 8 per day fairly often in some accounts by particular patterns of play, and when they changed their system and got rid of the bonus accounts I am hard pressed to get the Wheel of Cash 8 times PER YEAR!!!! This is far too much a step change to be the result of "chance", they "fixed something" and broke my Easter Egg.
This experiment started when I had that Pat RF for 16K at Phoenician, at which time I could get 8 wheels per day in the other accounts, but didn't get a SINGLE ONE in TWO MONTHS following the Pat RF - Random games just do not have that kind of variance over such a length of time, and demonstrating such coincidental patterns with events that are supposed to have no influence on the outcome.

I don't believe it is management with their fingers on a switch, but clever & convoluted design that produces enhanced periods of bias based on some kind of past state unique to the environment of an individual casino account, and not the RNG churning out results evenly between all players currently on a particular game.

 

[Slotster!]

I don't believe it is management with their fingers on a switch, but clever & convoluted design that produces enhanced periods of bias based on some kind of past state unique to the environment of an individual casino account, and not the RNG churning out results evenly between all players currently on a particular game.

I'm kind of starting to go with you on this... It makes no sense long term with slots at 95% or whatever, but I'm kind of seeing what you mean more and more! Maybe it is just the 'looser' attitude when you've had a nice win though? Similarly, taking less risks and winning less when you're being careful!?!?

Argh... I dunno. I stick by my POV that Wagerworks offer you the 'fairest' game though, that feels consistent at least...

 

[happygobrokey]

Argh... I dunno. I stick by my POV that Wagerworks offer you the 'fairest' game though, that feels consistent at least...

unless you play blackjack or video poker.

 

[SlotsWizard]

It does stretch credibility when one can perform such an experiment with the same game, same casino, side by side. Provided enough spins go through, it seems odd that the RNG allocates good spins and bad spins with such a negative bias against a player who has just won big. I would have expected the good & bad spins to be roughly evenly distributed between the two. This experiment indicates the RNG is using something about the player environment as part of the seed for the outcome, and this brings us to the streaky nature of Microgaming, where the casino is either for you, or against you, and can persist in a certain state for days.

I once did an experiment with the Casino Action "wheel of cash", and was able to prove to my own satisfaction that it was not quite as "random" as it was supposed to be, with me achieving the max of 8 per day fairly often in some accounts by particular patterns of play, and when they changed their system and got rid of the bonus accounts I am hard pressed to get the Wheel of Cash 8 times PER YEAR!!!! This is far too much a step change to be the result of "chance", they "fixed something" and broke my Easter Egg.
This experiment started when I had that Pat RF for 16K at Phoenician, at which time I could get 8 wheels per day in the other accounts, but didn't get a SINGLE ONE in TWO MONTHS following the Pat RF - Random games just do not have that kind of variance over such a length of time, and demonstrating such coincidental patterns with events that are supposed to have no influence on the outcome.

I don't believe it is management with their fingers on a switch, but clever & convoluted design that produces enhanced periods of bias based on some kind of past state unique to the environment of an individual casino account, and not the RNG churning out results evenly between all players currently on a particular game.

What is this "Wheel of Cash" - an MG slot game (Wheel of Wealth?) or a promotion/bonus offered by Casino Action? If it's the latter, I highly doubt that any promotion like that is in ANY way random, and I don't think that should be held against the MG software as a whole.

I too have experienced losing back everything I have won at MG, but also at RTG, Rival, Playtech, etc. I don't blame the software for that, I blame myself. I have also had occasions where I would win and cash out, then the next day deposit at the same place, win and cash out again. I really don't think there's anything scandalous going on with the big-name software providers, I think it boils down to player perception and/or greed. And of course, because the games are online and there are no physical cards or tables in front of you, there will ALWAYS be that little nagging voice inside your head when you lose...

 

[Kaynos72]

Well, maybe it's pure badluck, but i can't seem to win anything at any MG casinos. On the other hand, RTG are good for me. So to answer the OP question, i can't get the hell out, i havent won yet

 

[vinylweatherman]

I have done rather well with MG this last week or so.
I did, however, make a rather large donation to Ruby Fortune, but that was about it.
I even won at 32Red 200 in for their 777 credit lucky draw, played 10 Blackjack, and ended up withdrawing 800 AND getting an entry.

I found Munchkins by far the greatest contributor to my good fortune, and even got decent bonus rounds from a small number of VERY high stakes spins.

This weekend, I won at All Slots and All Jackpots, and lost back most of the earlier gains at VIP Lounge, however there I have hopes of scooping both promos for up to 2000 in bonuses that will offset the downslide.

To prevent any thoughts of going "on tilt" this coming week I plan to extract a large cheque from Neteller as soon as the weekend withdrawals hit, and leave what I initiallly started with to play further.
No 100 a hand 3-card poker THIS time, the Factory ain't getting it back so easily again

 

[Slotster!]

I even won at 32Red 200 in for their 777 credit lucky draw

Awwww... What was this? I missed it

Was it an email promo, I didn't get anything and I've played there quite a bit this month!

 

[vinylweatherman]

Awwww... What was this? I missed it

Was it an email promo, I didn't get anything and I've played there quite a bit this month!

Yes, E-mail promo. Deposit 177 or more and be entered into a draw for 7 prizes of 777 credits each.

I have been deflated now, after wagering my butt off and depositing a shedload, I only got a consolation 100 in Tumbling Dice for a correct prediction. This means I have probably lost the other promo too, as this was 1000 for the highest amount wagered, and clearly this wasn't me

Suddenly feels cold round here - Better get that cheque from Neteller before I get tempted again

 

[Slotster!]

Yes, E-mail promo. Deposit 177 or more and be entered into a draw for 7 prizes of 777 credits each.

Didn't get it, Doh! Ironically I didn't deposit on Saturday either I don't think *because* there was no promos and played Cleopatra instead... Ah well.

Probably my email server as opposed to 32, as loads of stuff goes missing these days.

 

[steinhaug]

I hate to even touch this because it just makes it more "real" to me but I will tell you that a few years ago a friend and I were playing at a MG casino... after I got $25 up over 10k I called her and she signed up & went to the same casino. I had won over $900 in Spring Break and it went TOTALLY cold. I mean COLD...I did 1300 spins NEVER getting the bonus round while my friend who was also playing Spring Break kept getting the spins & winning & losing, but STILL she was getting the bonus round..... same casino, same game, playing at the same time in different cities. We then went to other games...same thing, she would get the bonus rounds or win and I got NOTHING but an ass kicking...and her laughing over the phone while she was winning! I ended up cashing out about $3k so I was still happy but that little experiment has always haunted me.

Oh man, did you hit the nail on it's head! What you have experienced is exactly my findings, and theese are really bad! This is also why you only get one account on MG - since the software needs to be sure to screw you over!

Thanks for this post! If I win big, and you loose, I am supposed to have a new chance in winning since you filled my "hole" so to speak, it shouldnt be that I am always going on 95%... Where is the "fun" in that?