The Day Has arrived for The UK

[vinylweatherman]

You applied twice not once for your EEC membership after being rejected the first time.

And you joined the EMS much later than anybody else and left it after 2 years again, mainly because the GBP was not stable enough.

So are you sure you were tricked?

This was mostly the work of big hedge fund managers like Soros, who had the financial clout to force Sterling out by making it impossible even for the collective financial clout of the EU to support it. The problem was the practice of "short selling", which enables one to sell a commodity you don't presently own in the expectation that this will flood the market, drive the price down, at which point you can buy what you sold earlier in order to balance the transaction, but at a lower price. The abuse is where one person or hedge fund has SO much financial clout that they can manipulate the markets by the sheer volume they can bring to bear. Soros still brags about the billions of dollars he made through driving sterling out of the ERM. It was a similar kind of financial trickery that brought us the 2008 crash.

A simple solution would be an outright ban on this kind of trading, only allowing people to sell what they own. When "short selling" goes wrong, it can go spectacularly wrong because the seller is unable to complete the transaction by buying what they earlier sold before owning it. This happens when the short seller gets it wrong, and the price RISES in the interval and they don't have the reserves to take the loss. This can destabilise the entire market because of a domino effect of deals that can't be completed due to the non receipt of commodities bought earlier, or the non receipt of payment in settlement of deals struck earlier.

I'll bet the current fall in the pound has much to do with this kind of derivatives trading rather than an actual loss of confidence in Sterling. Derivatives can be even worse than short selling because you can have an untenable position for many months before you end up having to stump up cash or commodities you don't have and can't afford to buy. When these positions are forcibly unravelled, the world's markets can collapse.

The Euro was also under attack during the crisis in Greece, but it didn't fail, but supporting it has virtually bankrupted the EU, hence the continental austerity being even worse than here, especially in places like Greece. There are even suggestions that Germany is more or less bankrupt due to it's determination to prop up the Euro and the Eurozone countries. If Germany actually fails, that's the end of the EU in it's current form.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Although I may live in the UK, I am not British, heck I even didn't have the opportunity to vote in the referendum.

Euro scepticism in not only alive in the UK, citizens of other European countries feel the same as the British people felt.

As to your point I was happy that the European markets suffered more than the FTSE did, that is certainly not the case. It is in nobodies interest for any market to collapse so I am not sure how you drew that conclusion. I was merely making the point that investors must have been thinking that Brexit would have a bigger impact on the continental European countries than that it had on the UK.

Exit from the EU doesn't mean that the UK suddenly becomes national rather than global.

It was the way you wrote your post that drew me to these conclusions. Sorry if i misunderstood you.

I am a staunch supporter of free movement of whatever it maybe be, goods, people, money. Maybe even more so because i grew up in a communist country and know very well what impact such restrictions can have on peoples lifes.

The more open the world is the better, it will lead to more understanding between nations, less tensions and ultimately to veeeeery long peace periods which should be the norm for such a highly developed race that we humans are.

That the EU is not perfect is i think clear to everyone but show me something that is in this universe. In need of some reforms and adaptation to the 21st century, sure is.

But it is surely not the evil it is described to be. The advantages from being part of it far outweigh the disadvantages.

I wish GB well with their choice and shall take my hat off if in 5 or 10 years they will be still happy to have made this step.

 

[Harry_BKK]

This was mostly the work of big hedge fund managers like Soros, who had the financial clout to force Sterling out by making it impossible even for the collective financial clout of the EU to support it. The problem was the practice of "short selling", which enables one to sell a commodity you don't presently own in the expectation that this will flood the market, drive the price down, at which point you can buy what you sold earlier in order to balance the transaction, but at a lower price. The abuse is where one person or hedge fund has SO much financial clout that they can manipulate the markets by the sheer volume they can bring to bear. Soros still brags about the billions of dollars he made through driving sterling out of the ERM. It was a similar kind of financial trickery that brought us the 2008 crash.

A simple solution would be an outright ban on this kind of trading, only allowing people to sell what they own. When "short selling" goes wrong, it can go spectacularly wrong because the seller is unable to complete the transaction by buying what they earlier sold before owning it. This happens when the short seller gets it wrong, and the price RISES in the interval and they don't have the reserves to take the loss. This can destabilise the entire market because of a domino effect of deals that can't be completed due to the non receipt of commodities bought earlier, or the non receipt of payment in settlement of deals struck earlier.

I'll bet the current fall in the pound has much to do with this kind of derivatives trading rather than an actual loss of confidence in Sterling. Derivatives can be even worse than short selling because you can have an untenable position for many months before you end up having to stump up cash or commodities you don't have and can't afford to buy. When these positions are forcibly unravelled, the world's markets can collapse.

The Euro was also under attack during the crisis in Greece, but it didn't fail, but supporting it has virtually bankrupted the EU, hence the continental austerity being even worse than here, especially in places like Greece. There are even suggestions that Germany is more or less bankrupt due to it's determination to prop up the Euro and the Eurozone countries. If Germany actually fails, that's the end of the EU in it's current form.

And the UK's high interest rates and inflation, wasn't just Soros. The damage caused by him was a few billion pounds, certainly not something that should bring a countrie's currency to its knees.

Germany is certainly not even close to being bankrupt. They shouldered a reunification in the past 26 years costing a few trillion, yet they still have the biggest trade surplus, lowest unemployment rate and this year the first balanced budget and even some repayment of their debt. Much more than any other nation ever achieved in such a relatively short period.

 

[vinylweatherman]

And the UK's high interest rates and inflation, wasn't just Soros. The damage caused by him was a few billion pounds, certainly not something that should bring a countrie's currency to its knees.

Germany is certainly not even close to being bankrupt. They shouldered a reunification in the past 26 years costing a few trillion, yet they still have the biggest trade surplus, lowest unemployment rate and this year the first balanced budget and even some repayment of their debt. Much more than any other nation ever achieved in such a relatively short period.

I hope you are right and these reports lack substance, because it could be the worst thing to happen to Europe, and if it did, it would be because action wasn't taken early enough to regulate or reform the system to fend off disaster.

Soros is still bragging about the billions he made ejecting Sterling from the ERM, and seems to think this kind of practice by fund managers is perfectly acceptable, even though the knock on effects can sometimes destroy entire nations. I am sure there are others who feel it's better to keep their mouths shut for fear of triggering an international agreement to ban the practices that make them all this money.

With the ERM, it wasn't solely down to Soros, he merely amplified a trend to the extent that the currency support mechanisms within the ERM could no longer hold the various currencies within the proscribed ranges, hence the pound had to be ejected to save the ERM from total destruction.

 

[Sovietsky]

Remain didn't think they would lose.
Brexit didn't think they would win.

And now they have no clue what to do.

GL UK.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I hope you are right and these reports lack substance, because it could be the worst thing to happen to Europe, and if it did, it would be because action wasn't taken early enough to regulate or reform the system to fend off disaster.

Soros is still bragging about the billions he made ejecting Sterling from the ERM, and seems to think this kind of practice by fund managers is perfectly acceptable, even though the knock on effects can sometimes destroy entire nations. I am sure there are others who feel it's better to keep their mouths shut for fear of triggering an international agreement to ban the practices that make them all this money.

With the ERM, it wasn't solely down to Soros, he merely amplified a trend to the extent that the currency support mechanisms within the ERM could no longer hold the various currencies within the proscribed ranges, hence the pound had to be ejected to save the ERM from total destruction.

The debt-to-GDP ratio stands currently at roughly 67% and that with a GDP of appr. 3 Trillion EUR / annum.

They lowered the ratio from a peak of 81% in 2010 after the 2008 crisis to this level within 6 years. And the budget was actually balance in 2015 already and they look at the same result for 2016 albeit the extras they have to shoulder this year.

That certainly are NOT numbers indicating they are or will be soon bankrupt.

For comparison reasons, the UK debt-to-GDP ratio stands currently at 89% with a GDP of appr. 2 Trillion EUR / annum.

Hence, if you think Germany is in danger of going bankrupt, then the UK must have been so long time ago .....not to forget the Germans have a large trade surplus whereas the UK has a substantial trade deficit.

 

[KasinoKing]

Remain didn't think they would lose.
Brexit didn't think they would win.

And now they have no clue what to do.

GL UK.

You are so right there
I voted leave - and I certainly did NOT expect "Leave" to win.

But I'm so glad now that I did vote that way, as it has given ALL politicians (UK and EU) a massive kick up the arse to sit up and listen to what the PEOPLE want, not just what the big businesses & banks want.
I am very excited to see what the future holds: It may be good, it may be bad... but then, that's gambling!

KK

 

[Harry_BKK]

You are so right there
I voted leave - and I certainly did NOT expect "Leave" to win.

But I'm so glad now that I did vote that way, as it has given ALL politicians (UK and EU) a massive kick up the arse to sit up and listen to what the PEOPLE want, not just what the big businesses & banks want.
I am very excited to see what the future holds: It may be good, it may be bad... but then, that's gambling!

KK

With that I fully agree KK and it couldn't come at a better time, e.g. CETA/TTIP are next to be decided and in the current state favor heavily big corporations

 

[partyhummel]

ttip etc

what did this non people elected kim jong junker from the taxoasis just say...: "the national parliaments shalt have no influence on ttip..."

 

[Harry_BKK]

Just off the printing press some new statistics, which puts the numbers in the UK into some perspective..

Net immigration from EU countries 2015 - TOP 3

Germany - 382,449
UK - 184,000
France - 112,000

A total of 18.5 Mio EU citizens have migrated within the EU in the past 10 years, of those 4.1Mio live now in Germany, 3.1Mio in the UK and 2.2Mio in France

Source: German Federal Office of Migration and Refugees


Any new "scarydoo" stories coming from the UK parliament or has the summer paralysis already started?

 

[Webzcas]

You are so right there
I voted leave - and I certainly did NOT expect "Leave" to win.

But I'm so glad now that I did vote that way, as it has given ALL politicians (UK and EU) a massive kick up the arse to sit up and listen to what the PEOPLE want, not just what the big businesses & banks want.
I am very excited to see what the future holds: It may be good, it may be bad... but then, that's gambling!

KK

Snap. Also Shy Leave won, as the Remain camp made and still are making those who voted leave as bigots and/or worse. In addition I put £100 at 3/1 for Leave to win. So win win.

In addition we are also looking like there will be an interest rate cut, which is great for those of us with tracker mortgages. Plus so far Godzilla hasn't invaded the UK.

Now hopefully, when Article 50 is invoked, the EU and UK will do the right thing and ensure that all those EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens residing in EU states, are allowed to remain with full rights as they have had since living here and there.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Looks like some won't give up that easily. Today in London, some 40,000 according to the BBC, majority younger than 25 years.

 

[goatwack]

Looks like some won't give up that easily. Today in London, some 40,000 according to the BBC, majority younger than 25 years.

View attachment 68895

The same under-25 demographic that couldn't be arsed to actually vote in the Referendum but love to whine about it anyway. The realization of those cheap package holidays to Magaluf no longer being available has thrown them into a tizzy.

Idiots.

 

[Harry_BKK]

The same under-25 demographic that couldn't be arsed to actually vote in the Referendum but love to whine about it anyway. The realization of those cheap package holidays to Magaluf no longer being available has thrown them into a tizzy.

Idiots.

Absolutely right mate... i did not see anything like it prior to the referendum. They woke up now when it is too late.

 

[vinylweatherman]

The debt-to-GDP ratio stands currently at roughly 67% and that with a GDP of appr. 3 Trillion EUR / annum.

They lowered the ratio from a peak of 81% in 2010 after the 2008 crisis to this level within 6 years. And the budget was actually balance in 2015 already and they look at the same result for 2016 albeit the extras they have to shoulder this year.

That certainly are NOT numbers indicating they are or will be soon bankrupt.

For comparison reasons, the UK debt-to-GDP ratio stands currently at 89% with a GDP of appr. 2 Trillion EUR / annum.

Hence, if you think Germany is in danger of going bankrupt, then the UK must have been so long time ago .....not to forget the Germans have a large trade surplus whereas the UK has a substantial trade deficit.

Probably one of these scare stories then. It certainly feels like the UK is almost bankrupt because the infrastructure in some areas is slowly crumbling because councils are saying they can't even afford to cut the grass in some children's play areas. I was reading about this kind of thing happening in Detroit, with schools crumbling around the teachers and pupils and even IOUs being offered instead of wages being paid on time.

Given that Germany is far healthier than the UK, they are better able to absorb their larger number of migrants, but the UK seems to have attracted the second largest, but we are not in such good shape. However, it seems the mood is changing even in Germany, although maybe the reports of a campaign for "Dexit" are no more accurate than those reports of Germany risking bankruptcy. However, other countries do seem to be closer than ever to really questioning whether they too should hold a referendum as the UK has just had.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Just was reading what one of the heads of the LEAVE campaign had to say lately, Mr. Farage

- rattles around until the referendum is held
- spreads lies during the entire campaign
- a few days after the vote he steps down as UKIP leader
- today he said this is the start of the end of the European Union

- but desperately wants to and will keep his well paid job as a member of the EU parliament

Makes me wonder what he really wants. He probably doesn't care as long as it is well paid.

 

[goatwack]

Just was reading what one of the heads of the LEAVE campaign had to say lately, Mr. Farage

- rattles around until the referendum is held
- spreads lies during the entire campaign
- a few days after the vote he steps down as UKIP leader
- today he said this is the start of the end of the European Union

- but desperately wants to and will keep his well paid job as a member of the EU parliament

Makes me wonder what he really wants. He probably doesn't care as long as it is well paid.

Career politician, like the rest of 'em. Only difference is that he's better at spin than some of his contemporaries and has a modicum of charm/wit/humour which is ultimately what made him so populist. Just like Blair too, and Bojo come to think of it, people love being fed a good yarn.

But rest assured that Farage will take his seat in Brussels alongside the very people he has built his ambition around, namely the members he has denigrated. Like with Herman van Rompuy

 

[Harry_BKK]

Career politician, like the rest of 'em. Only difference is that he's better at spin than some of his contemporaries and has a modicum of charm/wit/humour which is ultimately what made him so populist. Just like Blair too, and Bojo come to think of it, people love being fed a good yarn.

But rest assured that Farage will take his seat in Brussels alongside the very people he has built his ambition around, namely the members he has denigrated. Like with Herman van Rompuy

Absolutely, only the career counts.

Really hilarious somehow. He shouts all the time: LEAVE THE EU ......THE EU IS USELESS......THIS WILL BE THE END OF THE EU ... but keeps his job in the EU Parliament..... WTF???

 

[geordiecolin]

Just was reading what one of the heads of the LEAVE campaign had to say lately, Mr. Farage

- rattles around until the referendum is held
- spreads lies during the entire campaign
- a few days after the vote he steps down as UKIP leader
- today he said this is the start of the end of the European Union

- but desperately wants to and will keep his well paid job as a member of the EU parliament

Makes me wonder what he really wants. He probably doesn't care as long as it is well paid.

He had dedicated something like 20 years to the leave cause and while at it was accused of being a loon, racist and was the target of a load of abuse in the streets. During that time he was a lone voice in the Hague standing up to them and telling them exactly how he viewed them. All this without any real surety of ever reaching his goal. I am not huge Farage fan,but I think he deserves the right to stand down now his goal has been reached. I suspect he is continuing his roll in the EU parliament only until he finds something else to do (as well as to stick the boot in). He has taken his place in history for sure.
I don't understand the point of there being a UKIP now anyhoo?

 

[Dinahnana]

He had dedicated something like 20 years to the leave cause and while at it was accused of being a loon, racist and was the target of a load of abuse in the streets. During that time he was a lone voice in the Hague standing up to them and telling them exactly how he viewed them. All this without any real surety of ever reaching his goal. I am not huge Farage fan,but I think he deserves the right to stand down now his goal has been reached. I suspect he is continuing his roll in the EU parliament only until he finds something else to do (as well as to stick the boot in). He has taken his place in history for sure.
I don't understand the point of there being a UKIP now anyhoo?

I don't like Farage one bit. I think him to be crass and a complete and total disrespectful Asshat. Having said that I do give him credit where credit is due. He was instrumental in getting the UK out of the EU. Only history will tell if this is a good thing or a bad thing. At the end of the day I am glad he has stepped down.

 

[geordiecolin]

I don't like Farage one bit. I think him to be crass and a complete and total disrespectful Asshat. Having said that I do give him credit where credit is due. He was instrumental in getting the UK out of the EU. Only history will tell if this is a good thing or a bad thing. At the end of the day I am glad he has stepped down.

If your talking about how he addressed the EU parliamentarian's a few days ago, did you see the full exchanges or only what the media showed on the news? If so he simply gave some back after being subjected to their bile. And he had to put up with that sort of attitude for years there.

 

[Dinahnana]

If your talking about how he addressed the EU parliamentarian's a few days ago, did you see the full exchanges or only what the media showed on the news? If so he simply gave some back after being subjected to their bile. And he had to put up with that sort of attitude for years there.

No Colin I had a very bad impression of him prior to that whole debacle. I found him to be bigoted during his Brexit campaign. Whether I am right or wrong in this doesn't matter. I guess Nigel is one of those people who is either a hero or a villain depending on whom you ask. To be fair I have no idea why he was an MEP in the first place since he wanted out of the EU.


I honestly cannot speak to what happened to him in the EU Parliament in previous years but that does not excuse his behaviour in the last few weeks. I didn't like him before his outburst last week and I like him less now. I also think his resignation is cowardly. He was pivotal to the Brexit campaign and I think he should stick around and deal with the consequences of that.

I know many people like him and I totally respect that view but personally I don't care for him one bit.

 

[geordiecolin]

No Colin I had a very bad impression of him prior to that whole debacle. I found him to be bigoted during his Brexit campaign. Whether I am right or wrong in this doesn't matter. I guess Nigel is one of those people who is either a hero or a villain depending on whom you ask. To be fair I have no idea why he was an MEP in the first place since he wanted out of the EU.


I honestly cannot speak to what happened to him in the EU Parliament in previous years but that does not excuse his behaviour in the last few weeks. I didn't like him before his outburst last week and I like him less now. I also think his resignation is cowardly. He was pivotal to the Brexit campaign and I think he should stick around and deal with the consequences of that.

I know many people like him and I totally respect that view but personally I don't care for him one bit.

I am not his cheerleader here. I think that he is just as bad as most other politicians. I understood that he is hoping for a part in the brexit negotiations so he is not running away. He probably does not see the point of UKIP either. It's main reason for being is finished.

 

[Dinahnana]

I am not his cheerleader here. I think that he is just as bad as most other politicians. I understood that he is hoping for a part in the brexit negotiations so he is not running away. He probably does not see the point of UKIP either. It's main reason for being is finished.

I guess I see your point. I am just a bit mad about the whole thing and what that means for people like me. My grandmother was born and raised in Northern Ireland pre Irish Independence. My grandfather was born in the south and served in the British army through two world wars. He chose to have and raise his family in the south of Ireland. When I was a child I remember the difficulty my parents had bringing my Grandmother to Northern Ireland to visit her relatives.

So Brexit means that the UK is out of the EU but does that mean people from the Republic of Ireland will need some kind of visa to visit the North of Ireland and visa versa? This is what pisses me off the most of all about the Brexit vote. Ireland as a whole has had peace for many years and it is my greatest wish that it endures. I know that people born in the North of Ireland have a right to Irish citizenship if they chose and rightly so. On the other hand I am very pissed off that I might have to get a visa in the future to go to the North of Ireland which is technically my country. I hope that this does not happen. I don't want to see my country divided any more than it has been. I think whatever negotiations occur that ties between North and South of Ireland remain strong and people on both sides of the border can move freely and trade as they have been doing. I am not a political person but I feel passionate about this. Other than that I totally respect the whole Brexit vote even if I dislike the players in that game including Farage. In the end I hope the Uk comes out of it strong because it is to the benefit of everybody if it does. End of....


PS. Half of my Dads siblings settled in the Uk in the 1950's and 1960's so I have a lot of relatives living in the Uk. Maybe I am not qualified to have an opinion on this whole thing but I can't help but have feelings regarding the matter. If at the end of the exit that free movement and trade is retained between Ireland and the Uk I will be happy but I doubt the EU officials will allow that. I am not upset at those who chose to vote out for whatever reasons. I am just upset of what that means to my country which is tied to the UK for good or for bad.


PPS. I wonder if Farage et al. ever considered what a Brexit vote would mean to Northern Ireland or did they even care. Now the majority of the Brexit supporters have left the political stage to leave the rest to clean up the mess.

 

[LOOKAWAY]

Well the lazy shit that I am I skimmed most off the above.

The UK will always have allies in Europe.

America's reason for having an opinion on the European referendum was the loss off troops in WW 1 and WW 2.

How many British have died defending Europe? A hell off a lot more.

We can and did have a referendum as a democratic country.

We are a big player in NATO.

And there are the big scary Russians to contend with, how many countries in Europe have a decent fighting force? Germany/nope/under occupation still, which has helped there economy a lot.

France/Military complex based on less imports think less foreign tech and just what they make there selves that is still pretty good. Mainly due to being able to defend there selves on there own, expected outcome after WW 2 and not very global community oriented as well I might add, then look at the Littoral combat ships that are being sold to Russia. (Not checked this story for over a year now might have changed.)

Eastern Europe will still be are friends and USA just for above reason alone.

They can't punish us as we would have even more cuts to are military and that would piss the USA off and we wouldn't be able to keep up are NATO spending making it even more expensive for USA.

Keeping Western Europe including Germany safe has cost the UK a lot off money since WW 2. And Germany has spent very little since then in comparison.

Imagine if the UK said sod you back would the French pick up the slack?.....NOPE

My point is we are still part off Europe as we are European and are still needed for the foreseeable future.