The Day Has arrived for The UK

Actually osulle was almost right in that the number was bang on for the EU. From that BBC article:



RE "the hoards are waiting to flood in": record immigration to the UK has, as I've repeated many times, been well below what is considered healthy for a Western developed nation. That number is apparently 1% per year which in the UK would mean roughly 650,000 which is almost twice what the record number has recently been. So, theoretically , there's a considerable way to go yet and -- I believe it could be reasonably argued -- it might not have been so wise to dump the entire EU project because of something that might've maybe happened some time down the road. Needless to say those who wanted to dump the EU anyway would certainly disagree.

That said having your hands tied in terms of any control on immigration does not seem a wise course to follow over the long run. Perhaps that could have been something to negotiate with the EU -- safe limits -- but that's all piffle now.



We're not talking about whether the average person is richer -- I reckon current government policies have a hell of a lot more to do with that than a modest level of immigration does -- we're talking about whether the nation as a whole is economically healthy or not. As far as I know GDP is the usual measure of that.

I've looked at your migration watch site and it's obviously a platform to press the anti-immigrant agenda. Not much of a reliable source for level-headed and bias-free analysis, AFAICT.

Respectfully guys, I'm done here. Thank you for your thoughts and time but IMO there's not much to be gained from continually kicking this can back and forth across the street.
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Maxd.....you are always welcome back to Canada.
 
Hmmm,


as I understand there is no actual accurate data on youth turnover (because it can't be harvested just like that. Correct me if I'm wrong?). Some pollsters and news sources have made guesstimations over it, and if they're even remotely close on the money it's a pretty disturbing thing. Regardless of opinion on leave/remain the youth pretty much betrayed themselves, mainly because they are the demographic that will be mostly affected by this, their entire future might be somewhat decided by the vote they wish not to participate in.
 
I still find it troubling that we haven't invaded Sweden! Luxembourg I can understand because there's bugger-all there. I suppose because it's always been a neutral nation in wars that there's been no reason to.

Mind you they've been here before when Sweden/Norway/Denmark had no borders and were one Norse area.

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Actually, Hano in Sweden was invaded it appears...:confused::confused:

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I don't think it's too late. Yes, we may have missed a couple here and there, but given time we can rectify that oversight and return the 'great' back into Britain!

We'll make some use of Camoron and make him admiral. We'll just call our fleet 'Nelson Brexit II' and see how that goes.

Chad, here we come!!! :axeman:
 
You're so far off the mark with that it's unreal mate!

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Max - this is what (as a chap who studied economics for 4 years!) I was trying to tell you about the one-sided rather glib "immigration grows the economy" argument. It does in GDP terms because the government borrows money to fund it, but there is zero or negative impact on per capita wealth (which is the REAL way to judge if the average individual is better-off.)

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The net figures comes from the amount of migration into the UK from EU countries less the amount of UK citizens that migrated out. The report comes from fact check.org.
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The lies started long before the referendum. Cameron promised in his manifesto to bring immigration down to the tens of thousands, when the referendum campaign began, part of the leave argument was that Cameron had failed to deliver on his promise to bring the numbers down, and had blamed EU membership for not being able to fulfil the promise. In fact, it was an impossible promise, and he knew it, but he lied because it was a vote winner in a difficult election campaign, and UKIP were fighting on a promise to exit the EU and regain control of our borders, and this was proving to be very popular. In order to match UKIP, Cameron promised to bring migration down to a net figure in the tens of thousands, but remain in the EU.

The initial loss of control was caused by the UK allowing free movement of the Eastern Europeans almost right away, whereas many other countries took advantage of transitional arrangements that delayed this right. Naturally, this meant that the UK was the only country worth migrating to that would actually let them in, so it should have been obvious that the UK would end up with ALL of the first wave of migrants from these countries, and also obvious that by making the decision not to take advantage of the transitional arrangements, the earlier promise on migration could not possibly be met.

Now, whilst 1% of population is a sustainable figure, it would also require a matching 1% growth in provision of things like housing, schools, healthcare. The failure to match the up to 1% migration rate with anything like this level of expansion of services over decades has lead to the current crisis where voting for Brexit was the only way many people felt their voices would be heard by those in power.

If the government didn't want Brexit, they should have acted to ensure that provision of basic services kept up with the migration rate. The claim that it was impossible to do this without being able to control the numbers is bullshit, they can use decades of past statistics to work out how much the "uncontrolled increase" has been in the past, and as a minimum ensure that provision of basic services catches up with past increases in demand, and hazard a guess that next year will see another 350,000 the year after another 350,000 etc. This would at least ensure that if we did get a higher figure one year, it could be managed.

One problem that we have suffered from is the global obsession with "doing more with less" in the guise of "efficiency". This has lead to the practice of cutting surplus provision such that our services are always "running hot", which is highly efficient as there is no wasted capacity costing money but not being utilised, but this strategy requires very accurate forecasts of future demand. It is this practice of "running hot" in our hospitals, ensuring that the average bed occupancy rate is as high as possible for maximum efficiency, that causes the catastrophic problems when a relatively minor increase in the rate of A&E arrivals quickly brings the system into chaos with queuing ambulances and patients being treated in corridors. Of course when you have lived with this system for much of your life, the LAST thing you want to see is even more people coming along who are entitled to use these same services along with your own family, and you won't care that they are helping the country through working and paying taxes, they could make the difference between you being the last one to fit into A&E and getting treated in the corridor or being the one that dies in the ambulance whilst waiting to be unloaded.

ALL parties campaigned during this referendum on the basis that migration would in future be better managed, and all parties made impossible promises. Stay or leave, net migration will still be around the same level given the same level of activity and demand in the economy. If anything, the shock of Brexit to the markets has made the situation worse, and the only way this can be salvaged in the short term is for new migrants to stay away until things settle back down, and then come back in as before, in the same numbers but under the new post Brexit system.

In the UK the uncomfortable fact is that we can do very little as individuals to tackle the problems ourselves. We can't simply decide that we will solve our own housing problem because the government can't. WE run up against strict planning laws that mean we can only build ourselves a house where the government says we can, and almost all of the places that the government has identified as permitted places to build have been bought up and "banked" by the big developers. These developers are deliberately sitting on large land banks and not building in order to keep house prices high, even though we have a severe housing shortage. If ordinary people could more easily buy single plots and build their own houses the big developer would lose money, so they do their best to prevent us from having this freedom. So far, self build is something of a niche activity, and it's pretty difficult to navigate all the legalities, and this is before you come up against council planners who often block individuals from building a single house, yet will let developers build a thousand, something on the SAME LAND that some years prior they refused individuals permission to build or extend due to "green" issues, and problems with extra traffic.

We can't even build in the wilds, as all of this is owned by someone and classified as "protected green space", so we are restricted to building in already crowded places like cities and towns, or uncomfortably close to existing settlements that invariably object strongly.

The worst is here in the South, where everyone wants to be and where it's so crowded. Further north, it's less crowded and in some places there are even homes sitting empty because no one wants them. Unfortunately, few people want to live up there because there is much less work available, and new investment continues to pour into the South. The communities up north are often poorer as a result, suffering decaying local services and infrastructure, but all those surplus houses are the cheapest place to put migrants, especially those who don't work, or who are not allowed to work. This makes the already inadequate provision of services even worse, and is where we have seen the worst excesses of far right activism.

Even now, politicians are STILL lying about what they will do post Brexit, continuing to focus on the renewed ambition of cutting migration drastically, but they SHOULD be embarking upon an expansion of basic provision to catch up with the migrants who are already here. If they don't, people will still experience severe shortages of the basic services, and will see migrants already here as the solution, as in making them go home as fast as possible so as to release capacity in local housing, schools, and healthcare.

If our services were coping well with the influx of migrants, we would not have voted for Brexit, and many of the tensions between the different communities would not have developed to the extremes we face today.

I bet those countries who are able to sustain a 1% population growth per annum through migration have ensured that housing, schools, and hospitals have largely kept pace. Given that all our politicians agree that migrants benefit the economy and pay taxes, the money should already be there for this provision, unless of course this is yet another lie, and in fact migration really is the huge burden on the nation's finances that the far right claim.

We can't make it compulsory for migrants to "fit in" completely, but we CAN make it very clear that when they are here, they obey our laws, and they won't be getting any special treatment. This is another area of failure by politicians, too much "special treatment" of migrants, even special exemptions from laws that the rest of us must obey such as being allowed to choose not to wear a motorcycle helmet, even though for the rest of us it's not something we can choose, but is dictated by law on "heath and safety grounds" that we must wear one or be fined. Surely if a law is there for a good reason, there can be no exemptions simply because one chooses to wear headgear that isn't compatible with a helmet. There are not many of laws that work like this, but coupled with the disease of political correctness, it has lead to the perception that migrants get special treatment as a matter of course, and this political correctness disease is also behind many of the decisions by officials that lead to "queue jumping" by migrants for things that are in short supply because they worry that telling ethnic minorities to wait their turn in the queue might be perceived as discrimination against them.
 
I have to say I am surprised Ireland is not on that list since we were invaded and occupied by England and under English control until 1921. Granted the invasion was a few times so history is a bit murky there but we should be on that list.

No, the list of countries is those NEVER invaded by the British. I think you've got it the wrong way round mate.
 
There you go... BoJo not going for PM :rolleyes: :confused:

First shouting around driving everyone nuts, then taking the tail between his legs and heading for the hills :eek: :rolleyes: :D
 
The lies started long before the referendum. Cameron promised in his manifesto to bring immigration down to the tens of thousands, when the referendum campaign began, part of the leave argument was that Cameron had failed to deliver on his promise to bring the numbers down, and had blamed EU membership for not being able to fulfil the promise. In fact, it was an impossible promise, and he knew it, but he lied because it was a vote winner in a difficult election campaign, and UKIP were fighting on a promise to exit the EU and regain control of our borders, and this was proving to be very popular. In order to match UKIP, Cameron promised to bring migration down to a net figure in the tens of thousands, but remain in the EU.

The initial loss of control was caused by the UK allowing free movement of the Eastern Europeans almost right away, whereas many other countries took advantage of transitional arrangements that delayed this right. Naturally, this meant that the UK was the only country worth migrating to that would actually let them in, so it should have been obvious that the UK would end up with ALL of the first wave of migrants from these countries, and also obvious that by making the decision not to take advantage of the transitional arrangements, the earlier promise on migration could not possibly be met.

Now, whilst 1% of population is a sustainable figure, it would also require a matching 1% growth in provision of things like housing, schools, healthcare. The failure to match the up to 1% migration rate with anything like this level of expansion of services over decades has lead to the current crisis where voting for Brexit was the only way many people felt their voices would be heard by those in power.

If the government didn't want Brexit, they should have acted to ensure that provision of basic services kept up with the migration rate. The claim that it was impossible to do this without being able to control the numbers is bullshit, they can use decades of past statistics to work out how much the "uncontrolled increase" has been in the past, and as a minimum ensure that provision of basic services catches up with past increases in demand, and hazard a guess that next year will see another 350,000 the year after another 350,000 etc. This would at least ensure that if we did get a higher figure one year, it could be managed.

One problem that we have suffered from is the global obsession with "doing more with less" in the guise of "efficiency". This has lead to the practice of cutting surplus provision such that our services are always "running hot", which is highly efficient as there is no wasted capacity costing money but not being utilised, but this strategy requires very accurate forecasts of future demand. It is this practice of "running hot" in our hospitals, ensuring that the average bed occupancy rate is as high as possible for maximum efficiency, that causes the catastrophic problems when a relatively minor increase in the rate of A&E arrivals quickly brings the system into chaos with queuing ambulances and patients being treated in corridors. Of course when you have lived with this system for much of your life, the LAST thing you want to see is even more people coming along who are entitled to use these same services along with your own family, and you won't care that they are helping the country through working and paying taxes, they could make the difference between you being the last one to fit into A&E and getting treated in the corridor or being the one that dies in the ambulance whilst waiting to be unloaded.

ALL parties campaigned during this referendum on the basis that migration would in future be better managed, and all parties made impossible promises. Stay or leave, net migration will still be around the same level given the same level of activity and demand in the economy. If anything, the shock of Brexit to the markets has made the situation worse, and the only way this can be salvaged in the short term is for new migrants to stay away until things settle back down, and then come back in as before, in the same numbers but under the new post Brexit system.

In the UK the uncomfortable fact is that we can do very little as individuals to tackle the problems ourselves. We can't simply decide that we will solve our own housing problem because the government can't. WE run up against strict planning laws that mean we can only build ourselves a house where the government says we can, and almost all of the places that the government has identified as permitted places to build have been bought up and "banked" by the big developers. These developers are deliberately sitting on large land banks and not building in order to keep house prices high, even though we have a severe housing shortage. If ordinary people could more easily buy single plots and build their own houses the big developer would lose money, so they do their best to prevent us from having this freedom. So far, self build is something of a niche activity, and it's pretty difficult to navigate all the legalities, and this is before you come up against council planners who often block individuals from building a single house, yet will let developers build a thousand, something on the SAME LAND that some years prior they refused individuals permission to build or extend due to "green" issues, and problems with extra traffic.

We can't even build in the wilds, as all of this is owned by someone and classified as "protected green space", so we are restricted to building in already crowded places like cities and towns, or uncomfortably close to existing settlements that invariably object strongly.

The worst is here in the South, where everyone wants to be and where it's so crowded. Further north, it's less crowded and in some places there are even homes sitting empty because no one wants them. Unfortunately, few people want to live up there because there is much less work available, and new investment continues to pour into the South. The communities up north are often poorer as a result, suffering decaying local services and infrastructure, but all those surplus houses are the cheapest place to put migrants, especially those who don't work, or who are not allowed to work. This makes the already inadequate provision of services even worse, and is where we have seen the worst excesses of far right activism.

Even now, politicians are STILL lying about what they will do post Brexit, continuing to focus on the renewed ambition of cutting migration drastically, but they SHOULD be embarking upon an expansion of basic provision to catch up with the migrants who are already here. If they don't, people will still experience severe shortages of the basic services, and will see migrants already here as the solution, as in making them go home as fast as possible so as to release capacity in local housing, schools, and healthcare.

If our services were coping well with the influx of migrants, we would not have voted for Brexit, and many of the tensions between the different communities would not have developed to the extremes we face today.

I bet those countries who are able to sustain a 1% population growth per annum through migration have ensured that housing, schools, and hospitals have largely kept pace. Given that all our politicians agree that migrants benefit the economy and pay taxes, the money should already be there for this provision, unless of course this is yet another lie, and in fact migration really is the huge burden on the nation's finances that the far right claim.

We can't make it compulsory for migrants to "fit in" completely, but we CAN make it very clear that when they are here, they obey our laws, and they won't be getting any special treatment. This is another area of failure by politicians, too much "special treatment" of migrants, even special exemptions from laws that the rest of us must obey such as being allowed to choose not to wear a motorcycle helmet, even though for the rest of us it's not something we can choose, but is dictated by law on "heath and safety grounds" that we must wear one or be fined. Surely if a law is there for a good reason, there can be no exemptions simply because one chooses to wear headgear that isn't compatible with a helmet. There are not many of laws that work like this, but coupled with the disease of political correctness, it has lead to the perception that migrants get special treatment as a matter of course, and this political correctness disease is also behind many of the decisions by officials that lead to "queue jumping" by migrants for things that are in short supply because they worry that telling ethnic minorities to wait their turn in the queue might be perceived as discrimination against them.

well said. Thank you
 
An extraordinary day in an extraordinary week....who would have thought so much political and economic change and confusion could so swiftly wrack an internationally respected and influential nation.

I see the Conservative Party contenders are now lining up, and Michael Gove is being labelled "Brutus" for the number he allegedly did on BoJo...few friends in politics, especially on the run-up for a leadership election!

And what will Corbyn do next...he's certainly keeping the pot boiling over at Labour HQ.....

And the pound still battling...
 
An extraordinary day in an extraordinary week....who would have thought so much political and economic change and confusion could so swiftly wrack an internationally respected and influential nation.

I see the Conservative Party contenders are now lining up, and Michael Gove is being labelled "Brutus" for the number he allegedly did on BoJo...few friends in politics, especially on the run-up for a leadership election!

And what will Corbyn do next...he's certainly keeping the pot boiling over at Labour HQ.....

And the pound still battling...

freefalling....


Just read an interesting article
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Maybe the whole thing was a stitch up by the government gone horribly wrong. The referendum was designed so that we would vote remain, and the government would use this to validate their policies for staying in the EU. The initial question had to be changed because it was felt to be too biased towards remain, and the claim was that this would "rig" the vote in favour of the remain camp. The question we ended up with was a simpler choice, with all bias left to the campaigning. The remain camp had all the advantages, it was the official government view. Rules were put in place to cripple the leave camp by forbidding government ministers and senior establishment figures for speaking out in favour of leave, but no such restrictions were placed on speaking out in favour of remain, as this was "government policy". A couple of establishment figures did break this rule, speaking out in favour of leave, and lost their jobs. There were no job losses for those speaking out in favour of remain.

The disaster was the result, it was not supposed to happen, the government were completely wrong footed and there was no plan to deal with this eventuality. The plan was that we would vote remain, parliament would close for the long summer holiday, and it would be business as usual with the democratic vote to remain being used to stamp out any further dissent from the leave camp.
 
No, the list of countries is those NEVER invaded by the British. I think you've got it the wrong way round mate.

Sorry my bad. I did think that it was a rather short list:p

Having said all that I do have to throw my 1cent into the ring. My family is Irish but my grandfather chose to join the British Army and fight in the trenches in WW1 and received a medal because he was injured during battle and lost the use of his left arm. He was one of the lucky ones. I think he also was part of another campaign previous to WW1 but records are kind of scarce.

He moved back to Ireland when his father got sick and decided to raise his family there, his wife my grandmother was born and raised in Northern Ireland and half of my uncles and aunts on my fathers side emigrated to England in the 1950's so I have a lot of family in England. I think because of all of these factors I feel overly emotional about this whole brexit thing and am left feeling my family's sacrifices were for nothing for better or worse.

Growing up I never had any animosity towards the English (except in football or rugby tournaments :D) and have always considered the Brits to be brothers in arms so to speak. And I come from a part of the south of Ireland that was very pro Republican and gave my father a very hard time growing up because his father was in the British army. I guess no matter what I am hoping Ireland and the UK can keep the strong ties that were hard won on both sides and be prosperous in years to come. From where I am sitting from is if the UK goes down financially so does Ireland and I don't want to see that. I would also hate to see migration limited in our two islands because I have seen the benefits of Irish moving to the UK and British moving to Ireland. Agree or disagree with me but this is how I feel and I think a lot of people from my generation feel the same way.

Lastly Ireland only joined the EEC because the UK did....
 
Maybe the whole thing was a stitch up by the government gone horribly wrong. The referendum was designed so that we would vote remain, and the government would use this to validate their policies for staying in the EU. The initial question had to be changed because it was felt to be too biased towards remain, and the claim was that this would "rig" the vote in favour of the remain camp. The question we ended up with was a simpler choice, with all bias left to the campaigning. The remain camp had all the advantages, it was the official government view. Rules were put in place to cripple the leave camp by forbidding government ministers and senior establishment figures for speaking out in favour of leave, but no such restrictions were placed on speaking out in favour of remain, as this was "government policy". A couple of establishment figures did break this rule, speaking out in favour of leave, and lost their jobs. There were no job losses for those speaking out in favour of remain.

The disaster was the result, it was not supposed to happen, the government were completely wrong footed and there was no plan to deal with this eventuality. The plan was that we would vote remain, parliament would close for the long summer holiday, and it would be business as usual with the democratic vote to remain being used to stamp out any further dissent from the leave camp.

The way things are going I'd believe almost anything now...this included, although it does sound a bit Machiavellian!

I'm stating the obvious when I say that it is imperative now to steady both the economic and political ships a.s.a.p. Business abhors uncertainty and too much volatility.
 
As i said in one of my earlier posts:

This will go down in history as the biggest political FARCE :rolleyes:

--> The REMAIN camp was sure they'd win and made no plans
--> The LEAVE camp was sure they'd lose and made no plans

Both presented only lies to their British citizens, each scaremongering them how Britain would go down badly if the other camp would win.

Who is going to pay all this and will suffer most --> The British people, not the politicians :eek:

Worst is BoJo, shouting around like he is going to reinvent the wheel after GB leaves the EU and then immediately runs for the hills with the tail between his legs. Shocking behavior. :eek: :mad:
 
As i said in one of my earlier posts:

This will go down in history as the biggest political FARCE :rolleyes:

--> The REMAIN camp was sure they'd win and made no plans
--> The LEAVE camp was sure they'd lose and made no plans

Both presented only lies to their British citizens, each scaremongering them how Britain would go down badly if the other camp would win.

Who is going to pay all this and will suffer most --> The British people, not the politicians :eek:

Worst is BoJo, shouting around like he is going to reinvent the wheel after GB leaves the EU and then immediately runs for the hills with the tail between his legs. Shocking behavior. :eek: :mad:
The British have always been world leaders in comedy... :thumbsup:

KK
 
My first thought when I saw the result from the referendum was that something had gone terrible wrong. After now almost a week I still have the same feeling. My opinion is that this is the biggest national harakiri ever and it shows how dangerous nationalistic populism can be.

I am sure this will stand for future generations as an another example what can happen when democracy is used by politicians in the wrong way.

I however still have hope that there are politicians within Britian that will fix this in the end. They can't all be suicidal or......
 
My first thought when I saw the result from the referendum was that something had gone terrible wrong. After now almost a week I still have the same feeling. My opinion is that this is the biggest national harakiri ever and it shows how dangerous nationalistic populism can be.

I am sure this will stand for future generations as an another example what can happen when democracy is used by politicians in the wrong way.

I however still have hope that there are politicians within Britian that will fix this in the end. They can't all be suicidal or......
I disagree.
The EU is a failed project and it had to be stopped, or reformed in a critical way (especially free movement of people).
I'm hoping that Brexit will be the catalyst for other countries to follow suit - then maybe the UK can get together with them and form a new and much better cooperation which does not have such a negative impact on the individual countries.

KK
 
I disagree.
The EU is a failed project and it had to be stopped, or reformed in a critical way (especially free movement of people).
I'm hoping that Brexit will be the catalyst for other countries to follow suit - then maybe the UK can get together with them and form a new and much better cooperation which does not have such a negative impact on the individual countries.

KK

I realize that “free movement” was probably the single biggest issue for people to vote Leave but what was missed I believe was that the best way to change that would have been to remain in the EU and change that from within. Now you will have to live with directives from the rest of EU with very little influence.

Don't for a second belive that you can change that if you want to have access to the EU market because it is one of the fundaments of EU. I guess you have to hope that EU will collapse for that to happen but that would I belive be the biggest purrus victory ever.
 
I realize that “free movement” was probably the single biggest issue for people to vote Leave but what was missed I believe was that the best way to change that would have been to remain in the EU and change that from within. Now you will have to live with directives from the rest of EU with very little influence.

Don't for a second belive that you can change that if you want to have access to the EU market because it is one of the fundaments of EU. I guess you have to hope that EU will collapse for that to happen but that would I belive be the biggest purrus victory ever.

You need to consider that the UK is a net importer, a lot from the Europe. Take Germany as an example, where the UK during April 2016 exported £2.7bn and imported £5.2bn. Same for France - exports worth £1.5bn and imports worth £2.8bn

If Europe were to put obstacles in the way they may well cut their nose to spite their face.

The free movement of people was just one of the issues that led to the vote by the majority of the UK population to leave the EU.

Perhaps it is worth considering that Europe may need the UK more than the UK needs Europe. Look at the Financial Markets immediately after the votes were counted. The European markets suffered more than the FTSE.
 

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