Red Dog statistics...


Dormant account
Oct 13, 2003

I have today played a session of red dog at Captain Cooks Casino and want to run a few numbers by you math wizards - coz I'm not sure I'm getting dealt a fair game here...

Flatbet 2$, total wager 2000$, Total games played 858, Total loss 244$

Wagering 2000$ in 858 hands means that I have wagered (2x858) 1716$ in normal bets and (2000-1716) 284$ by doubling. That means that I have gotten (284/2) 142 chances of doubling.

There are (as far as I can see) 13 different initial hands in Red Dog.
Spread 0: Same value or connected values - 2 possibilities
Spread 1-11: 11 possibilities

Out of these 13 possibilities, spread 7 to 11 is where you double. So 5 out of 13 initial hands, you will double.

Now, I was playing 858 hands. Wouldn't I expect to get (858/13*5) 330 chances to double?

If I am correct in this, then my session is lacking 188 chances to double. Thats a very big deviation, don't you think? I'm only getting about 43% of the opportunities to double that is expected!

Please correct me if I'm wrong in my calculations....
Isn't spread 0: 3 possiblilities?

If your first card was a 6, next card 5 6 or 7 = 0 spread.

Dunno about the rest of your maths, cos I think Red-Dog odds are very complicated! ie. like craps, chances of spread 1 or 11 is vastly different from 5 or 6. (I think!) ;)
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I think you are right... I used my brain a bit more and came up with that you are likely to be able to double 15 times out of 91. And if this is true, 142 doubles is spot on. I'll do some more math when I get home... Coz loosing 122 units in 858 games when expected to loose 23-24 units is still a lot....
I also had -crazy- loss at Red Dog on a Microgaming Casino (flash version). Over 300 pounds lost in 1500 hands - flat bet of 1 with raises on spreads of 7 or more.
If you played 858 hands and doubled 142 that means your double rate was 142/848 or 16.75% There will be a more accurate figure but I get 30 chances out of 169 (13x13 ) for a 17.75% thats for 26 cards (two suits) for simplicity. A full deck will give a slightly more accurate result. Remember the Ace has 5 chances for a 7+ spread, the king 4 chances and down. The six has one chance, the five has two and up. 5+4+3+2+1+0+0+0+1+2+3+4+5 = 30 Very simplistic, hope it helps, you didn't do well but only slightly off. Expectation for 858 hands would be around 152 opportunities.

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