Question for the industry guys (RTP)

andym

Experienced Member
Joined
Jul 6, 2013
Location
germany
Hi guys,
i have one question for you and would be happy if someone can answer that.
Lets assume there is only one online casino out there. This online casino licensed only one slot. This one slot has a theoretical RTP of 96%.
In that online casino only two players are playing the whole time.

Player1 made a really good win on the slot and get an RTP of 104%. Then Player1 stopped immeadiately playing.
Now whats the most likely real-RTP-outcome for Player2 who still continues playing with a very lot or unlimited spins:

1. Player2 will end up at 96% RTP
2. Player2 will end up at 88% RTP

Thanks
Andy
 
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Solution
You are talking about the concept of compensation if you're thinking Scenario 2 is the answer, online slots are random and are not compensated. therefore Player 1's results and Player 2's results are entirely independent of each other.

Eventually Player 1 and Player 2 will, given a sufficient number of spins, reach the T-RTP of the slot, but their results along the way do not influence the other at all.

Twin

Head of Casino
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May 24, 2017
Location
Malta
No. the Game does not care if one person wins. same reason why the chance is there to hit the Mega Moolah jackpot twice with 2 spins in a row.

It's all chance-based.
 

Kroffe

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well yes I get that, but the main point was the number of spins. 10 billion is a massive amount, but nowhere near 11 trillion, and if you do enough spins then there will be a point at which you are likely to reach the outcome you want.
It's more, why pick 11 trillion spins as the test amount, when other providers are doing far less. Surely the testing should be uniform, and be over a set number of spins? And a set number of goes, then possibly take the average. For example, do 10 billion spins 5 times. Get the RTP from each set, add together and divide by 5. Rather than do as many spins as it takes to get the result you want, then stop.

Imagine if that type of 'testing' was done in other areas, it would be viewed as completely unreliable.
The best i can give you is a 'i have no idea'
:p

Maybe one of the providers on the forum could provide some insight to how they choose how many spins to do during testing etc.
 

Kroffe

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No. the Game does not care if one person wins. same reason why the chance is there to hit the Mega Moolah jackpot twice with 2 spins in a row.

It's all chance-based.
I just did two spins on Moolah, didnt win the jackpot even once.
Just my luck.
 

Kroffe

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I guess there must be a technical/purity difference, maths is not a strength so it would probably go over my head!
If you go to random .org you can get more info if you are interested.

But in short:

"Perhaps you have wondered how predictable machines like computers can generate randomness. In reality, most random numbers used in computer programs are pseudo-random, which means they are generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula. This is fine for many purposes, but it may not be random in the way you expect if you're used to dice rolls and lottery drawings.

RANDOM.ORG offers true random numbers to anyone on the Internet. The randomness comes from atmospheric noise, which for many purposes is better than the pseudo-random number algorithms typically used in computer programs."

So apparently we can get true random, but not by using a mathematical formula.
 

ChopleyIOM

Hearthstone Addict
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In simple terms you need a truly random external 'input' to the computer (known as entropy) for it to generate a truly random number.

Pseudorandom will generally use a seed and an algorithm, if you know the seed and the algorithm, and have some of the sequence of results, you can theoretically work out what's coming next. (Back in the 80s some guys famously worked out the P-RNG on US casino video poker machines and were able to work out where in the sequence the machines were and therefore when winning hands would be dealt, they made a lot of money.)

Pseudorandom is actually fine for a lot of applications (do you really care if the random play on your CD player is 'true' random or pseudorandom?), but for true randomness you need an external input of a random value.
 

paul7388

Ueber Meister
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In simple terms you need a truly random external 'input' to the computer (known as entropy) for it to generate a truly random number.

Pseudorandom will generally use a seed and an algorithm, if you know the seed and the algorithm, and have some of the sequence of results, you can theoretically work out what's coming next. (Back in the 80s some guys famously worked out the P-RNG on US casino video poker machines and were able to work out where in the sequence the machines were and therefore when winning hands would be dealt, they made a lot of money.)

Pseudorandom is actually fine for a lot of applications (do you really care if the random play on your CD player is 'true' random or pseudorandom?), but for true randomness you need an external input of a random value.

Glad you used simple terms lol.
 

ChopleyIOM

Hearthstone Addict
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who decides the 'solution' and is this a new forum feature as I haven't see it before?

edit: not disagreeing with Chop's post, other than I believe the rng is 'pseudorandom'

I don't know who did that, I didn't ask for it or influence it! :)

Still, make hay whilst the sun shines and that.

CHOPLEYIOM SOLUTIONS PROVIDER AT YOUR SERVICE - Solutions cost £250 each, payable to my Neteller account.
 

andym

Experienced Member
Joined
Jul 6, 2013
Location
germany
The thing is that everything is so hidden in so many conditions/preconditions/terms/hidden formulars,processes and "unlimited" proof of spins that you will be never able to judge if a casino cheated on you or if everything is just the "randomness"...
I mean how you want to proof that?
Example:
i make a big win on one day on one slot in an online casino. After that day i played 7 days in a row every day on different slots in the same casino. All slots i played have a T-RTP of 94-96%.
After these 7 days i ended up with an overall RTP of 62% for the complete week.
While i played a huuuuge amount of spins with an huuuge amount of euros.

Did the casino now cheated on me to get the money back? Impossible as every slot for itself is just random and not influenced by other slots/players or the casino... Or is it just random and bad luck?
And what, if i tell you now that exactly that pattern happened after my last 2 wins in that casino also.
So everything just random? how many spins/euros do i need to proof that its not random?...
Impossible guys. You have to live with that or stop gambling!
 

The Reel Story

Experienced Member
Joined
May 5, 2019
Location
United Kingdom
I have a video on this subject that people might find helpful. Will link it at the bottom.

However as was already stated, one players play has no impact on another. The VIP manager you spoke to was just explaining the concept very poorly. Conceptually he's correct, the RTP of a game over all its spins over all players will converge on the TRTP because some players will win big and others will not, but that is based on individual luck for those players, not because the game is 'keeping track'.

The more important thing these days is 'volatility'. Games these days are highly volatile, meaning there will be big winners and (more) big losers and means that a convergence on the TRTP takes millions and millions of spins, so any one individual would never be able to prove it based on their own play.

P.S, I 'know' this rather than 'think' this, because I used to make these games for a living :) And we used to simulate around billion spins to prove RTP's I believe (this is about 10 years ago, so games were less complicated back then).

If you have any specific industry questions, feel free to ask.

 

bamberfishcake

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I wonder what the chances were of that guy getting those identical bonuses on Diamond Mine, and suspiciously identical spins previously, didn't they payout the same also? On a slot that randomly produces mega ways :)

For games that are supposedly extremely random and unique for each and every single player, what are the chances eh :p

It's no wonder people wonder, that's just one guy that noticed it and records his sessions.

Edit: This one.. This'll Make the Sh*t Hit The Fan - Random Megaways? - Casinomeister Forum
 
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bamberfishcake

Senior Member
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Where are you guys getting the info on how many test spins were done at NetEnt etc?

As you may know, RTP is calculated and games tested over millions, billions and trillions of spins. This is recorded on game sheets and inevitably, some information gets out.

Some Providers, like Peter & Sons and Blueprint, have started listing full stats in the game menu and hopefully it won't be long before others follow such ethically pioneering ways :)
 

andym

Experienced Member
Joined
Jul 6, 2013
Location
germany
I have a video on this subject that people might find helpful. Will link it at the bottom.

However as was already stated, one players play has no impact on another. The VIP manager you spoke to was just explaining the concept very poorly. Conceptually he's correct, the RTP of a game over all its spins over all players will converge on the TRTP because some players will win big and others will not, but that is based on individual luck for those players, not because the game is 'keeping track'.
Sorry but I don’t get your statement. If the rtp is calculated over all spins and all players, then your clear answer in my case is player1-rtp affects player2-rtp.
please note that in my example you only have two players playing the slot.
 

The Reel Story

Experienced Member
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Location
United Kingdom
Sorry but I don’t get your statement. If the rtp is calculated over all spins and all players, then your clear answer in my case is player1-rtp affects player2-rtp.
please note that in my example you only have two players playing the slot.
You are missunderstanding RTP. It isn't a target, and it isn't something the game actively tries to hit. It's just the natural percentage the mathamatical model outputs. A single player, with enough spins, will converge on the TRTP. All players play together (with enough spins) will converge on the TRTP. It's just mathamatical statistics.

The play from one player does not effect another. If player 1 does two spins and wins big, they will have an RTP well over 100%. That win doesn't change the chance of anyone else winning or losing.

Month on month, the total RTP of the game is likely to vary above or below the TRTP, but it's just a number caluclated based on all the money staked vs all the money returned.
 

bamberfishcake

Senior Member
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Not sure if this helps but they are not on a cycle if that's what you mean? They don't run for their set testing, like a million spins then reset to spin 1 for people to play again.
 

Slottery

Senior Member
PABnoaccred
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If you flip coin, you should have pretty equal chance for both sides but you can get quite many heads/tails in row but even you would have 5 heads in row, on next flip it's still again 50/50 chance for both without any weighting to hit tails after 5 heads in row.

It's expected that what bigger sample of these coinflips you take, you end up nearer of 50/50 but there can be still quite significant discrepancies even after quite many throws but what bigger is your sample, nearer of "right" result you end up and in very big grand total it's getting really near of actual assumed result (like @The Reel Story clearly showed in his video).
 
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