RTP of games, how is it monitored, by whom and at what point is action taken?

[deleted-user-20240310]

Hello!

I was just wondering how can a game (Tombstone) advertised at approx 96% RTP run at significantly lower RTP for a very long time? In my knowledge, the only sites which show the true RTP of games are videoslots.com and mrvegas.com. I know for a fact, that mrvegas is approx one year old, and their RTP shows 87.9%. Videoslots has been around for years, and I guess they have had Tombstone from the games publication - yet it still has approx 4% lower RTP than this game should have (92.1%). I know the game is volatile, but there has most certainly been billions of spins on this game in this timeframe. All casinos say that the RTP should come close to the TRTP over time, but in my opinion 4% (let alone 9%) is quite a difference.

So, at what point is the RTP checked and by who and what actions are taken if the game constantly runs on too low RTP?

Obviously the game exists on plenty other casinos as well, so it might be that some of them is sporting way over 100%RTP over the years, but the only available data is from the sites showing the true RTP. And videoslots is quite popular site..

PS. Before anyone says the game is not popular enough, I checked on mrvegas.com, Tombstone is on page 525/544 when sorted by least played ascending (10/page)...

PPS. For instance Bonanza is spot on (96%) on both casinos.

 

[PMKFRUITPRO]

The last time this point was raised about said game it was running at 78%!! Search for it!!

Videoslots had apparently moved the server to a British service station.

 

[Kroffe]

Not quite... It would be 2 spins in total returned 1000x stake -> 1000/2 -> 50000% which is entirely possible with a samplesize that small.

The mathmodel / reel-layout / whatever does not change based on the betsize and does not take into account any spins made in the past. which to me means that for calculating the rtp% you can only look at the return in terms of x times stake and not at the net-result in terms of money won / lost.

@trancemonkey : even though i am sure you answered that probably a couple hundred times in your encyclopedic threads, but maybe you c provide your take / explanation on the correct calculation of rtp% - especially regarding how / if to take into account betsizes

Right, i counted the 1000x win as 1000%.
I blame being tired, but it probably had more to do with me being bad at math.

 

[ShadyFei]

Videoslots is using the 94.2% rtp version of Tombstone, so there is only 2% missing.
Wouldnt surprise me if Mrvegas was using a even lower version, they do that for some providers (i think PnG was 91% at Mrvegas)

But i get the feeling they are hiding something, look what happened when i went to check the rtp for separate months just now.
First time getting this error on Videoslots.

View attachment 159692

Ban or no ban, I got you Fancy bear.

Here is Tombstone's actual RTP figures starting with Alltime actual RTP, then from June 2021 to October 2021. I don't know how statistically significant this is without a lot more data points, but here it is. Tombstone used to be 96.2% theoretical RTP - now it's 94.2%.

Does anyone know when VS dropped the RTPs for NoLimit City?

 

[Mr Wild]

Ban or no ban, I got you Fancy bear.

Here is Tombstone's actual RTP figures starting with Alltime actual RTP, then from June 2021 to October 2021. I don't know how statistically significant this is without a lot more data points, but here it is. Tombstone used to be 96.2% theoretical RTP - now it's 94.2%.

Does anyone know when VS dropped the RTPs for NoLimit City?

View attachment 159706

December 2019.

 

[Mr Wild]

Videoslots is using the 94.2% rtp version of Tombstone, so there is only 2% missing.
Wouldnt surprise me if Mrvegas was using a even lower version, they do that for some providers (i think PnG was 91% at Mrvegas)


But i get the feeling they are hiding something, look what happened when i went to check the rtp for separate months just now.
First time getting this error on Videoslots.

View attachment 159692

View attachment 159694

If you refresh the page too many times you get ban for x amount of mins as its a DDOS protection.

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

Thanks all for replies. I found this interesting article on UKGC.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

I basically play on MGA casinos, so I don't know if these same rules apply as such, however this will give some insight on the matter.

**

QUOTE from the page:

After a significant amount of plays the actual RTP should be very close or equal to the theoretical RTP. To continue with the above example, if the game had a volatility (standard deviation) of 5.6 then the acceptable upper and lower tolerance will be as below:

..table...

after 1 000 000 spins, the approved tolerance is 1.1% in RTP

EDIT:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

. That page is missing the chart I am interested in.

**

As we know, Tombstone is very volatile game. However, I am having trouble in believing a game must be played 'billions' of spins for it to reach the TRTP? However, this is all just speculation until an exact number of spins played on the game can be found.

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

And another thing is games with Bonus Buys (not relevant as such to this thread, just came to mind).

How is actual RTP for games with bonus buys calculated? Are bonus buys included in total RTP and if so, are they calculated by bet size (eg: 0,2e) or by price of the buy (eg. 200e)? If I buy a bonus on eg. San Quentin, the bet size is 0,2e. However, the best bonus costs 400e. I will probably win 200e -> is this calculated as 1000xbet win or 0,5xbet win?

 

[Kroffe]

If you refresh the page too many times you get ban for x amount of mins as its a DDOS protection.

Ok, suspicion put on hold for now.
But if i find out that 'DDOS protection' is short for 'Dodgy Documents Out of Sight protection', then its back on.

 

[brianmon]

I wouldn't expect the TRTP of a game at any individual casino is particularly important from a regulator's point of view.
The TRTP is the expected figure over ALL players and ALL casinos.
So if it is checked, it'll be at the provider's end.

 

[Reelsoffun]

Not quite... It would be 2 spins in total returned 1000x stake -> 1000/2 -> 50000% which is entirely possible with a samplesize that small.

The mathmodel / reel-layout / whatever does not change based on the betsize and does not take into account any spins made in the past. which to me means that for calculating the rtp% you can only look at the return in terms of x times stake and not at the net-result in terms of money won / lost.

@trancemonkey : even though i am sure you answered that probably a couple hundred times in your encyclopedic threads, but maybe you can provide your take / explanation on the correct calculation of rtp% - especially regarding how / if to take into account betsizes

We don’t need trance to confirm the way RTP is calculated as many have explained it already and for the avoidance of doubt it is all money won / all money wagered * 100. This would be across all casinos hosting said game with all players and all stakes.

As mentioned high rollers will swing the RTP quite a lot in either direction in comparison to a low roller etc

 

[Reelsoffun]

And another thing is games with Bonus Buys (not relevant as such to this thread, just came to mind).

How is actual RTP for games with bonus buys calculated? Are bonus buys included in total RTP and if so, are they calculated by bet size (eg: 0,2e) or by price of the buy (eg. 200e)? If I buy a bonus on eg. San Quentin, the bet size is 0,2e. However, the best bonus costs 400e. I will probably win 200e -> is this calculated as 1000xbet win or 0,5xbet win?

It would be calculated the exact same way 200/400*100 = 50% RTP so in your example 0.5x win as any sane ( non streamer ) person can see that.

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

@brianmon wait, what? providers are checking the games they are providing? this cannot be true?
@Reelsoffun exactly, thats how it should be - but is this a fact or a guess?

 

[Reelsoffun]

@brianmon wait, what? providers are checking the games they are providing? this cannot be true?
@Reelsoffun exactly, thats how it should be - but is this a fact or a guess?

Its a fact.

As for providers checking games, I’m sure they monitor all games for any irregularities, and they will have a far clearer view far earlier than any single casino, especially if things are going way out of mathematical variance.

Its also a licensing requirement for the uk as well.

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

@Reelsoffun good to know it is a fact!

On the other issue: let me get this straight so I am not misunderstanding anything. By provider, in this case you mean No Limit City? Don't they get their share of the money created by people playing their games? Is the RTP only checked / monitored by the provider or is there a third party here who doesn't gain any income by games running below their TRTP?

 

[Reelsoffun]

The provider has to monitor it as they are in the best position to of course. They also have to keep records that can be requested to be seen should the ukgc need to as far as I am aware, but I don’t personally know that for certain but I would expect that’s very much the case.

What you have to understand is just because the RTP is low at one casino that really means nothing, as it has many factors that can influence it, eg not as popular at that casino, or an higher than average high rollers playing that didn’t do well Etc etc just as it could just swing back the following month.

This is why its only really the provider that can see whats really going on RTP wise.

In exactly the same way as some players run way above RTP on a game while others constantly run way below, DOA2 is a good example of this.

 

[goatwack]

So in answer to the actual question of who monitors RTP, when and how, it boils down to blind faith & trust, "probably", "I'd think they do it", "It's in good hands" and "Why would they not?"

Are any of these audits ever published and the information disclosed? How often are they conducted? I'd have thought these things are regularly relayed to the consumer in some guise so as to keep trust in the product, unless I'm mistaken. No one's actually provably accountable for keeping things tickety-boo

Never mind, I guess I'll just go with that it's being conducted to a tee. Probably by the Underpants Gnomes when no one's looking

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

@Reelsoffun - Yes, in my first post I did state that the game can have bigger RTP:s on different casinos, however no one knows as no other casino provides any data of actual RTP..

But it does get rather interesting here, if I am understanding correctly, there are no third-party constantly monitoring the RTP. This does bring a lot of problems (as @goatwack stated on previous message): data can be falsified very easily if it is requested afterwards. So, it all comes down to players believing providers/casinos (who get their income from players). Someone please prove this to be wrong - how could this be the case in such industry where players might lose a LOT without getting concrete goods in return?

I am also very curious to know about the audits, how often they are done, by whom and is this information available to the public.

 

[trancemonkey]

@Reelsoffun has described it all very well. As a provider, if you want to be 100% safe and remove issues caused by large bet sizes, you would monitor cash in / cash out for each stake independently. I know some providers do that, but i'm not sure how many.

@manttih All games are independently tested and verified - at least in regulated markets. RTP's are checked and certified. Does that mean that mistakes don't happen and some games run under / over? No - look at NetEnt's streetfighter for example.

I'm well aware of casinos panicking and asking us to check games for being over percentage as well as being under. However, the regulators only have to be informed if the game is under-paying as this is not in the players benefit. Of course, the provider will be told if it's over, and will be expected to check and fix if necessary

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

@trancemonkey. Checked and certified by whom? How often? What is the accepted deviance from the TRTP and in how many spins? Is the link I sent earlier any indication at all (medium-volatile game, approx 1% deviation in million spins)

Who informs the regulators if the game is under-paying? Casinos themselves, why would they? Providers, why would they? Also, what happens if the game has been under-paying for, say a year, and the fix is necessary - what happens to the money already lost by players?

 

[andym]

What a scam…

 

[abuyang]

I am a little bit confused. Nolimit website advertises the RTP of all of their slots. In case the certain slot has 2 rtp setting - then both are shown. Now, the Tombstone on nolimitcity.com is advertised as 96% Rtp slot ONLY. HOW COMES THERE EXIST LOWER VERSIONS of the slot and even as low as 90% ? Are we intentionally misinformed by the slot provider ?

 

[NolimitCity - Pelle]

Quite the thread - haven't had time to read all of it. But it's fairly easy to explain. We've had similar discussions with Manttih earlier.

1. You're looking at the data from one casino only, we look at the entire network mainly. I haven't dug down into the data at Videoslot especially. No idea of how VS does this algorithm - their rep might be able to shed some light. It's a marketing tool to make players play a slot that is "hot" or "cold". You either bet on a "cold slot" because you believe that it will soon pay out big, or you bet on a "hot slot" because you think it's currently on fire and will pay out even more. Read up on Gamblers Fallacy if you'd like to learn more.
2. We constantly monitor the RTP levels - this is a requirement from regulations like UKGC, but also other regulators. That goes for any deviation - both up or down. This is reviewed by the regulators as well. Of course we get contacted by our customers when a player hits big - most of the customers wants to make sure that it's a correct payout if the amount is quite big - that why you can see a delay in payouts as it's usually the casino wants a go ahead from the supplier.
3. A game can be "under-paying" for a period, or "over-paying" for that matter - it all depends on what timeline you're looking at. It's just part of the randomness of a casino game. Otherwise we'd all just make games that pays out 96% on every spin - and that's no fun.
4. Tombstone has a very stable RTP. The RTP becomes more and more stable if more rounds are played on it of course - and even though Tombstone is very volatile, it's an older game that still attracts its players. My gut feeling is that Tombstone isn't huge at Videoslots - as they've got 3000+ games and this game is not located in their lobby in a very attractive way.

 

[bamberfishcake]

Great thread, have been trying to find out about this for a while.

(medium-volatile game, approx 1% deviation in million spins)

If you are talking about the information on the UKGC website, don't forget that the first million or so have a much wider deviation because the slot RTP needs to bed in.

But agree, this is a vague area in terms of how it is checked and how it is rectified.

@trancemonkey @NolimitCity - Pelle

May I ask:

So, the RTP is not monitored per casino but overall across the network?

How is it rectified if too far under the guideline deviation?

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

@NolimitCity - Pelle
1. What do you mean how does VS do this algorithm? When you look at all time actual RTP, is there some other way to do this than bets/wins * 100? This has nothing to do with 'gamblers fallacy', if the actual RTP of all players in all time is lower than it should. But as I said in the very first message, there might be some other casinos where RTP is over 100% - not that the player would know about this as this data is (for some reason) hidden on other casinos.
2. Can you be more specific on This is reviewed by the regulators as well? How often, between how many spins and what's the approved deviation in x number of spins? You can understand why you monitoring the game is not enough, as you get income from games running at too low RTP (4% lower over 1000 000 spins is A LOT of money).
3. I understand this. However, what is the period a game can be under-paying? Lets say a game runs at 30% RTP for billion spins, would this be acceptable as 'the RTP is calculated over billions of spins'. This is exactly why I want to know how often RTP is monitored and if it is monitored frequently by someone not receiving any income from too low RTP.
4. I also dont know how often this is still played - it is on top 150 on mrvegas if I calculated correctly.

 

[deleted-user-20240310]

@bamberfishcake , I'm sorry but I don't understand what you mean by this:

If you are talking about the information on the UKGC website, don't forget that the first million or so have a much wider deviation because the slot RTP needs to bed in.

what do you mean by bed in ? If I read the UKGC article correctly, it says in plain English:

After a significant amount of plays the actual RTP should be very close or equal to the theoretical RTP. To continue with the above example, if the game had a volatility (standard deviation) of 5.6 then the acceptable upper and lower tolerance will be as below:

... followed by a table where 1000 000 spins on med-volatile game. Also:

So if 400,000 games had been played to accrue turnover and win figures of the example then the allowable tolerance will be 1.75 above or below 91.68. The game could return between 89.93% and 93.43% and still be considered to be performing as expected.

Nothing about bedding in

Which brings me to another question: I understand high-volatility games can deviate a bit more from this. However, I dont think these rules change to over billions of spins - is there any data available on accepted high-volatility game-deviations?