phynqster said:
So although the jackpot was not hit, the jackpot sequence was hit so the slot will probably not be hit for awhile.
Not if the machine is random....same old story. The fact that your neighbor just hit the jackpot sequence makes no difference to your chances of hitting the jackpot sequence. OK, if the jackpot is hit but not paid, and resetted anyway, then it will make a huge difference to the expected return %. I would never play in a casino that resets their progressive jackpot even if they didn't pay the previous winner...
Speaking of free chips and bonuses. I don't think free chips are very risky for the casino, especially when they have the WR attached. I didn't invent gunpowder so somebody needs to help me out with the math:
Let's assume that a major online casino called Casino VirtualPayouts is giving out $100 in no-deposit bonuses to 10,000 customers. No WR attached, immediately cashable. Worst case scenario: Everybody cashes out immediately. The casino loses $1,000,000. But it's more likely that everybody will wager some. If the Casino give it a slots (progressives excluded) 1xWR, the Casino's expected loss is about $950,000 (I think, please feel free to correct me if I'm completely wrong). And that's only if everybody wagers it minimum WR on average. But alas, people will wager more than once. In fact, most players will play it down (it's free money, right, might as well go for those high bets and big wins!) I don't know the math, but I'll just guess that the casino might expect to lose directly about $100,000 for having this very nice promotion event that will make a lot of players happy and they get a lot of publicity and loyal players = $$ in the future. Of course there is the possibility that someone will get extremely lucky and blow up the vault with a $150,000 Thunderstruck win
but that's just going to be a dip in the monthly profit curve and given that the big casinos make a profit of tens of millions of dollars each year, it's no biggie.
OK, you mathheads out there. Assume it's a 100% match bonus on slots (95% average return), i.e. deposit $100 get $100. 10xWR on slots. What is the casino's expected loss here, from this promotion, not counting the increased business following the promotion??? I can't do the math, but I suspect the expected loss is not big. In fact, all things considered, I expect the casino will actually make a profit from this promotion.
Cheers,
SM