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Online black jack crazy low % bust hands

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Mickyia, Oct 13, 2015.

    Oct 13, 2015
  1. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Hi, this is my first post, and have for long time suspected online blackjack is not random,has anyone ever looked at the % bust hands the dealer gets against expectation, and particularly the ammount of bust hands dealer gets when holding a "stiff" first card , I have just recorded 17 sessions of a total of 2600 single hands and the results are unbelievable, any comments would be great

    Mike
     
  2. Oct 13, 2015
  3. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    Which software?
    If you don't know - which casino?

    KK
     
  4. Oct 13, 2015
  5. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Playtech,
     
  6. Oct 13, 2015
  7. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Casino is jackpot 247
     
  8. Oct 13, 2015
  9. hedgehok

    hedgehok Meister Member mm3

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    Germany
    Can you be a little bit more specific please? Tell us the number of hands busted, hands-won%, hands-lost% the name of the game you played and so on.

    I've played "Blackjack" (not Blackjack Surrender, Perfect Blackjack, etc.) in August about 20,000 hands and came out over 100% RTP. It's fairly save to say the game is "within expectation".
     
  10. Oct 13, 2015
  11. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    It was normal blackjack no surrender , I have all the logs but basicly dealer bust 21.2% over 2600 hands and expextation is 28.2%
     
  12. Oct 13, 2015
  13. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    I could send you the results if your interested
     
  14. Oct 13, 2015
  15. hedgehok

    hedgehok Meister Member mm3

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    Germany
    Okay I calculated a little bit:

    Sample Size: 2600
    Sample Observed Mean: 0.281921
    Standard Deviation: 0.45002
    Desired Confidence Level (%): 99.9

    Results: Confidence Interval: +/- 0.03 (range 0.25 to 0.31)

    So the probability of your result (0.212) is far, far below 0.01.


    A little bit too early for me to be suspicious though. I had far better results.
     
  16. Oct 13, 2015
  17. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Hi thanks for that reply , these results were just the last few days , it's very similar on every session, I stopped playing this game for 2 years after losing A LOT of money on Playtech at William hill, these are the only results that seem to prove something not right, in one session of 163 hands the dealer had a 2 or 3 21 times , it only busted once !!
     
  18. Oct 13, 2015
  19. hedgehok

    hedgehok Meister Member mm3

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    Germany
    Those streaks you are reporting are not at all uncommon. I had them with basically all major game-providers and a small sample size like 21 hands is just not enough to prove anything.

    Did you count dealer blackjacks as "non-busted" too ?
     
  20. Oct 13, 2015
  21. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Yes I accept that, but was just pointing out the stiff card rate of busts, yes dealer black jack counting as not bust
     
  22. Oct 13, 2015
  23. hedgehok

    hedgehok Meister Member mm3

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    Germany
    If you like you can share your data here in this thread.
     
  24. Oct 13, 2015
  25. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Ok I shall send the full analysis
     
    1 person likes this.
  26. Oct 13, 2015
  27. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Hi, these are the results of the past few days playing one hand black jack using 6 decks, my bets were usually £5 or £10
    With very occasional increase.

    These figures are aimed at the % bust that the dealer has, and in particular the soft cards 2,3,4,5,6

    Hands. Dealer bust. Dealer 1st card. Average % bust
    Not bust against bust
    2. 3. 4. 5. 6.


    175. 39. 10/1. 12/4. 8/7. 4/8. 6/6. 22.2%
    168. 35. 8/3. 10/2. 6/2. 5/7. 11/8. 20.8%
    171. 46. 8/7. 9/7. 3/3. 8/7. 7/10. 26.9%
    161. 35. 10/3. 5/5. 7/6. 7/3. 6/2. 21.7%
    157. 24. 12/6. 5/1. 8/4. 10/4. 7/2. 15.3%
    85. 16. 2/3. 4/3. 2/2. 5/0. 4/0. 18.8%
    171. 44. 4/2. 13/4. 8/5. 10/3. 7/3. 25.7%
    165. 35. 8/3. 8/2. 5/5. 5/5. 7/5. 21.2%
    166. 34. 7/1. 5/3. 3/3. 8/9. 10/7. 20.5%
    121. 31. 5/4. 6/2. 2/3. 6/3. 7/5. 25.6%
    165. 34. 15/2. 14/3. 1/3. 10/9. 6/3. 20.6%
    112. 21. 5/2. 2/5. 3/2. 5/4. 4/1. 18.8%
    162. 32. 5/1. 6/4. 7/4. 5/4. 7/3. 19.8%
    176. 35. 10/2. 9/2. 5/2. 8/1. 7/5. 19.9%
    163. 33. 11/1. 10/0. 7/4. 10/4. 8/6. 20.2%
    126. 30. 11/5. 1/1. 5/4. 6/2. 7/4. 23.8%
    172. 32. 8/4. 10/4. 4/2. 8/2. 9/5. 18.6%

    The actual as per wizard
    Of odds is. In %. 35.35. 37.42. 39.58. 41.84. 42.28. 28.19

    As you can see out of 17 sessions of 2616 hands not once did the dealer go near the 28.19% needed
    My grief has always been with the ammount the dealer does not bust on a stiff card, most of the above % bust
    Results on stiff cards are crazily low compared with what it should be.
     
  28. Oct 13, 2015
  29. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Those figures didn't come out in the format that I typed them , if anybody is confused let me know
     
  30. Oct 13, 2015
  31. hedgehok

    hedgehok Meister Member mm3

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    Germany
    I put your data in a spreadsheet for proper analysis:

    Online black jack crazy low % bust hands: MickyiaBJresultsanalysisfinal.JPG,Oct 13, 2015

    Dealer busts against dealer upcards 2 and 3 have been far below expectation. However the amount of hands played is still to low to conclude the game being non-random. The results for upcards 4, 5 and 6 seem fine to me.
     
  32. Oct 13, 2015
  33. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Thanks I really appriciate that good work, but don't forget the overall % bust on all cards
    This must mean the dealer busts against A,7,8,9,10 and picture cards is way low to expectation ?
     
  34. Oct 13, 2015
  35. hedgehok

    hedgehok Meister Member mm3

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    Germany
    Have you similar detailed numbers for 7-A ?
     
  36. Oct 13, 2015
  37. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    I can work it out, but if the overall average is 21.2% against expectation 28.2 these cards must be below as well, I would have thought ?
     
  38. Oct 13, 2015
  39. Mickyia

    Mickyia Newbie member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Birmingham england
    Just did 2 sessions today to emphasise

    170. Hands dealer bust 36. 21.2%
    162. Hands dealer bust 30. 18.5%
     

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