Online black jack crazy low % bust hands

Mickyia

Newbie member
Hi, this is my first post, and have for long time suspected online blackjack is not random,has anyone ever looked at the % bust hands the dealer gets against expectation, and particularly the ammount of bust hands dealer gets when holding a "stiff" first card , I have just recorded 17 sessions of a total of 2600 single hands and the results are unbelievable, any comments would be great

Mike
 

hedgehok

Meister Member
mm3
Can you be a little bit more specific please? Tell us the number of hands busted, hands-won%, hands-lost% the name of the game you played and so on.

I've played "Blackjack" (not Blackjack Surrender, Perfect Blackjack, etc.) in August about 20,000 hands and came out over 100% RTP. It's fairly save to say the game is "within expectation".
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
It was normal blackjack no surrender , I have all the logs but basicly dealer bust 21.2% over 2600 hands and expextation is 28.2%
 

hedgehok

Meister Member
mm3
Okay I calculated a little bit:

Sample Size: 2600
Sample Observed Mean: 0.281921
Standard Deviation: 0.45002
Desired Confidence Level (%): 99.9

Results: Confidence Interval: +/- 0.03 (range 0.25 to 0.31)

So the probability of your result (0.212) is far, far below 0.01.


A little bit too early for me to be suspicious though. I had far better results.
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
Hi thanks for that reply , these results were just the last few days , it's very similar on every session, I stopped playing this game for 2 years after losing A LOT of money on Playtech at William hill, these are the only results that seem to prove something not right, in one session of 163 hands the dealer had a 2 or 3 21 times , it only busted once !!
 

hedgehok

Meister Member
mm3
Those streaks you are reporting are not at all uncommon. I had them with basically all major game-providers and a small sample size like 21 hands is just not enough to prove anything.

Did you count dealer blackjacks as "non-busted" too ?
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
Yes I accept that, but was just pointing out the stiff card rate of busts, yes dealer black jack counting as not bust
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
Hi, these are the results of the past few days playing one hand black jack using 6 decks, my bets were usually £5 or £10
With very occasional increase.

These figures are aimed at the % bust that the dealer has, and in particular the soft cards 2,3,4,5,6

Hands. Dealer bust. Dealer 1st card. Average % bust
Not bust against bust
2. 3. 4. 5. 6.


175. 39. 10/1. 12/4. 8/7. 4/8. 6/6. 22.2%
168. 35. 8/3. 10/2. 6/2. 5/7. 11/8. 20.8%
171. 46. 8/7. 9/7. 3/3. 8/7. 7/10. 26.9%
161. 35. 10/3. 5/5. 7/6. 7/3. 6/2. 21.7%
157. 24. 12/6. 5/1. 8/4. 10/4. 7/2. 15.3%
85. 16. 2/3. 4/3. 2/2. 5/0. 4/0. 18.8%
171. 44. 4/2. 13/4. 8/5. 10/3. 7/3. 25.7%
165. 35. 8/3. 8/2. 5/5. 5/5. 7/5. 21.2%
166. 34. 7/1. 5/3. 3/3. 8/9. 10/7. 20.5%
121. 31. 5/4. 6/2. 2/3. 6/3. 7/5. 25.6%
165. 34. 15/2. 14/3. 1/3. 10/9. 6/3. 20.6%
112. 21. 5/2. 2/5. 3/2. 5/4. 4/1. 18.8%
162. 32. 5/1. 6/4. 7/4. 5/4. 7/3. 19.8%
176. 35. 10/2. 9/2. 5/2. 8/1. 7/5. 19.9%
163. 33. 11/1. 10/0. 7/4. 10/4. 8/6. 20.2%
126. 30. 11/5. 1/1. 5/4. 6/2. 7/4. 23.8%
172. 32. 8/4. 10/4. 4/2. 8/2. 9/5. 18.6%

The actual as per wizard
Of odds is. In %. 35.35. 37.42. 39.58. 41.84. 42.28. 28.19

As you can see out of 17 sessions of 2616 hands not once did the dealer go near the 28.19% needed
My grief has always been with the ammount the dealer does not bust on a stiff card, most of the above % bust
Results on stiff cards are crazily low compared with what it should be.
 

hedgehok

Meister Member
mm3
I put your data in a spreadsheet for proper analysis:

MickyiaBJresultsanalysisfinal.JPG

Dealer busts against dealer upcards 2 and 3 have been far below expectation. However the amount of hands played is still to low to conclude the game being non-random. The results for upcards 4, 5 and 6 seem fine to me.
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
Thanks I really appriciate that good work, but don't forget the overall % bust on all cards
This must mean the dealer busts against A,7,8,9,10 and picture cards is way low to expectation ?
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
I can work it out, but if the overall average is 21.2% against expectation 28.2 these cards must be below as well, I would have thought ?
 

Mickyia

Newbie member
Just did 2 sessions today to emphasise

170. Hands dealer bust 36. 21.2%
162. Hands dealer bust 30. 18.5%
 
Top