Hi KK,
I swore I wasn't getting involved in this one lol
Ok KK, the mistake you are making is the most basic one in the book. It's completely natural so don't feel to bad about it. The big major pitfall is that we as humans fail to appreciate our presence in time as an important factor here.
The odds that we will be seeing 10 heads in a row in our next 10 tosses is 1 in 1024.
The odds that we saw 10 heads in a row in our last 10 tosses is not 1 in 1024 . It's either 1 if we did, or 0 if we didn't.
If we use this in calculations the difference becomes apparent.
we will throw a coin 2 times. before we throw the odds of hitting two heads are 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.
after the first throw, the odds of hitting two heads have changed. If we hit a head the first coin it is
1 * 1/2 = 1/2
if we hit tail the first time it is
0 * 1/2 = 0.
Everything you see in the past happened, so it has a probability of 1. After you just hit the jackpot that only happens one in a million, its still probability 1 that it just happened .. cause it just did.
After you see 4 heads the probability for 5 heads is not 1 in 32 (1/(2*2*2*2*2)) but one in 2 (1/(2*1*1*1*1)).
In your reasoning, you take say 50 samples in the past that are unlucky, and 50 samples in the future that are undetermined. Then you say since I didn't hit in the first 50, and it hits on average every 100, I'm now more likely to hit in the next 50. Which is the equivalent of saying since the roulette just landed on red, and on average it has to land the same amount of times on red and black, it is now more likely to land on black. The slot is not more likely to hit in the next 50 and the roulette is not more likely to hit black since the odds of the past events are always simply 1 no mater how exceptionally rare they were.
In short, the OP and some of the other posters here are correct in saying that the strategy you outline on your website is (sensitively formulated) flawed. There's one good piece of advice there and that is always deposit with bonuses.
Apart from that it is by no means the most profitable strategy (play absolute maxbet on the highest variance game you find) - nor the least profitable one (play absolute min bet on the lowest variance game you find). It's just one of the many things 'inbetween' that one could do.
The reason you have consistently made a profit has nothing to do with your strategy. It has to do with the simple fact that if you calculate the following numbers :
X = total of KK own deposit.
Y = total of casino bonuses
Z = total stake on the slots
you made a profit because Z*0.05 < (X+Y) ..
And so the strategy that would be valid on the slotbeaters site is to keep Z as low as you can by maximizing bets and risk.
As a final note, I would like to add a little self-test here .. if you can answer the following question correctly, we both know that the explenation got through
Say I have a closed bag with in it two colored chips. One is red on two sides, and the other is green on one side and red on the other. I take one chip out of the bag and show you one side. You see red. What are the odds that I picked the chip with the green ?
Cheers,
Enzo