- Joined
- May 8, 2018
- Location
- south east england
So, on a day in which our Prime Minister has been found by the highest court in Scotland to have wilfully misled the Queen, the government has released a heavily summarised (and somewhat redacted) version of the Yellowhammer report.
In the government's own words, this is the reasonable worst case scenario. i.e. it's NOT the worst case scenario. It's more likely than that.
And in summary, this is what our government is CHOOSING to do to this country.
- No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security coordination with Ireland. EU Citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled to prior to exit from the EU, at the point of exit.
- Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for.
I had to laugh at that one.
- HMG will act lawfully and in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.
So after three months, if we're lucky, our ability to move stuff to the continent and back might be almost back to three quarters of what it is today.
- The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold "unready" HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer
So it's going to cost more just to have electricity.
- In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route should there be significant and prolonged disruption
- The BDG/DfT planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies.
- The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits.
- Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In NI there will be not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid SEM split could occur months or years after EU Exit. In this event, there would not be security of supply issues. However, there will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts
Don't worry about the costly electricity and the lack of medicines though, because...
- Any disruption to reduce, delay or stop supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks' worth of stockpiling which took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption.
...we'll probably be more concerned about lack of food than lack of medicine.
- Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease.
- Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption
That's nice.
- Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.
The whole document is a summary, and doesn't go into huge amounts of detail.
What is clear though is it dry, and it is realistic. And it reads like a country preparing for war, and all of the disruption associated with that.
And we don't have to do it.
There is no good reason to do it.
Aside from your medicine issues are you really worried about running out of food for example, if it was going to get like Venezuela here then sure it would concern me, but some short term disruption is neither here nor there in the big scheme of things. There's too many bleedin hgvs on the roads as it is, we can use the channel tunnel and put on more goods trains.
Japan has twice the population of the uk and relies heavily on imports for all sorts of things, food and medicines etc...they seem to manage pretty well.
As I understand it, it is the EU that insist 5% VAT is levied on electricity and gas, once outside of the eu we can remove this charge.
Edit: I see a 3 month time frame has been given for the channel supply route delays/problems
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