Brexit - whats the difference.....

So, on a day in which our Prime Minister has been found by the highest court in Scotland to have wilfully misled the Queen, the government has released a heavily summarised (and somewhat redacted) version of the Yellowhammer report.

In the government's own words, this is the reasonable worst case scenario. i.e. it's NOT the worst case scenario. It's more likely than that.

And in summary, this is what our government is CHOOSING to do to this country.

  • No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security coordination with Ireland. EU Citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled to prior to exit from the EU, at the point of exit.
  • Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for.

  • HMG will act lawfully and in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.
I had to laugh at that one.
  • The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold "unready" HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer
So after three months, if we're lucky, our ability to move stuff to the continent and back might be almost back to three quarters of what it is today.
  • In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route should there be significant and prolonged disruption
  • The BDG/DfT planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies.
  • The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits.
  • Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In NI there will be not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid SEM split could occur months or years after EU Exit. In this event, there would not be security of supply issues. However, there will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts
So it's going to cost more just to have electricity.
  • Any disruption to reduce, delay or stop supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks' worth of stockpiling which took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption.
Don't worry about the costly electricity and the lack of medicines though, because...
  • Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease.
  • Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption
...we'll probably be more concerned about lack of food than lack of medicine.

  • Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.
That's nice.

The whole document is a summary, and doesn't go into huge amounts of detail.

What is clear though is it dry, and it is realistic. And it reads like a country preparing for war, and all of the disruption associated with that.

And we don't have to do it.

There is no good reason to do it.

Aside from your medicine issues are you really worried about running out of food for example, if it was going to get like Venezuela here then sure it would concern me, but some short term disruption is neither here nor there in the big scheme of things. There's too many bleedin hgvs on the roads as it is, we can use the channel tunnel and put on more goods trains.

Japan has twice the population of the uk and relies heavily on imports for all sorts of things, food and medicines etc...they seem to manage pretty well.

And I noticed there wasn't much mention of time frames in the above document (how long will the disruption go on for, weeks, months etc...) or the govt plans to tackle the forecasted problems, surely vital medicines don't have to come in by road on hgvs they could be flown in, while any long term supply issues are resolved.

As I understand it, it is the EU that insist 5% VAT is levied on electricity and gas, once outside of the eu we can remove this charge.

Edit: I see a 3 month time frame has been given for the channel supply route delays/problems
 
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That was just my summary. The full document runs to five pages and goes into more detail -
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And yes, I would be worried about running out of food. Because that's what the government is planning for.

It'll be supermarkets on Christmas eve, every day, for months.

And Japan has trade deals. If we leave the EU, we have none.

Basically, believe it or don't believe it; that's the government's own advice, and we are fucked.
 
So, on a day in which our Prime Minister has been found by the highest court in Scotland to have wilfully misled the Queen, the government has released a heavily summarised (and somewhat redacted) version of the Yellowhammer report.

In the government's own words, this is the reasonable worst case scenario. i.e. it's NOT the worst case scenario. It's more likely than that.

And in summary, this is what our government is CHOOSING to do to this country.

  • No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security coordination with Ireland. EU Citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled to prior to exit from the EU, at the point of exit.
  • Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for.

  • HMG will act lawfully and in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.
I had to laugh at that one.
  • The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold "unready" HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer
So after three months, if we're lucky, our ability to move stuff to the continent and back might be almost back to three quarters of what it is today.
  • In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route should there be significant and prolonged disruption
  • The BDG/DfT planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies.
  • The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits.
  • Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In NI there will be not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid SEM split could occur months or years after EU Exit. In this event, there would not be security of supply issues. However, there will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts
So it's going to cost more just to have electricity.
  • Any disruption to reduce, delay or stop supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks' worth of stockpiling which took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption.
Don't worry about the costly electricity and the lack of medicines though, because...
  • Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease.
  • Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption
...we'll probably be more concerned about lack of food than lack of medicine.

  • Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.
That's nice.

The whole document is a summary, and doesn't go into huge amounts of detail.

What is clear though is it dry, and it is realistic. And it reads like a country preparing for war, and all of the disruption associated with that.

And we don't have to do it.

There is no good reason to do it.

Sounds great to me dan, and this is exactly what 17.2 million people voted for three years ago. This is literally the precise scenario that they all had in mind.

Obviously we can't run the 2016 referendum again because that would be 'anti-democratic', but Johnson is quite right to call for another general election (last held in 2017) and Corbyn is 'anti-democratic' for refusing to give Johnson what he wants, where Johnson tries to dig himself out of the world's biggest hole.

EDIT - Holy crap I just read mack's reply, whereby we literally have the phrase 'aside from your medicine issues'. You know there are many people in the UK who are now genuinely terrified of losing ready access to the medicines they need to stay alive?

And beyond that, we're now talking about 'not worrying about having enough food to eat' as if it's a positive?

Is there literally One. Single. Thing. that anyone from the Leave camp can still list as a positive in all of this?

Rules of the game:

1) Getting rid of foreigners doesn't count unless you're prepared to accept it was just racism all along.

2) We won't starve to death isn't a positive.

EDIT:

3) If it's THE EU TELLS US WHAT TO DO! Then list one thing the EU forced upon you prior to 2016 you hate so much that wasn't to do with immigration/foreigners.
 
EDIT - Holy crap I just read mack's reply, whereby we literally have the phrase 'aside from your medicine issues'. You know there are many people in the UK who are now genuinely terrified of losing ready access to the medicines they need to stay alive?

Well chop I have no idea the kind of medicine dan is on, I remember him mentioning it earlier in the thread, I don't know if it's life saving or there's no other medicine he can take that would be available and not subject to shortages. Obviously he is right to be concerned by that, but were that not to be an issue, is he worried in a broader sense, running out of food etc... that's what I meant, maybe I didn't word it in the right way and it sounded dismissive regarding his medicine but that wasn't my intention
 
No offence about my medication taken.

But the problem is this - there's a whole list of medication that will be in short supply. Some people will be able to be swapped to other medication if they can be. But that will impact on the supplies of that medication.

Every link in a chain is essential. Take one out, and the cogs might move a little for a short time. But eventually, the chain is going to whip up and have your eye out.
 
It's the terrifying, blinkered refusal to see facts as anything other than "Project Fear" that is, well, terrifying.

Yeah I know, even a dispassionate and objective assessment by the civil service and all associated essential services (sorry 'Remoaner Civil Servants who love Corbum', need to get the language right), is dismissed as Project Fear.

We're genuinely into the realms of flat-earthers here, it's faintly terrifying.

We now have people telling us that most medicines will probably be available and we'll still have enough food to eat (although not the food we necessarily want), and trying to palm it off as a good thing, because we break free of 'shackles' that can neither be explained or defined.

Oh well, at least there's alcohol to take the edge off.
 
Where there's a will there's a way though, all these wars in the middle east we took part in the last two decades, required supply chains, it was done because the will to do it was there. I can't help it as a leave voter if our govt is useless and won't make the required preparations to secure adequate supplies of all required medicines ahead of the 31st oct.

Edit: this was a reply to dan's post at 1,333
 
Instead of project fear, have the remoaners considered that there is actually really something to be frightened of? The reactions of millions of people denied democracy due to the self-serving interests of a cabal of elected representatives who cannot seem to get the message that the people chose to leave? Like riots, attacks on MP's, civil disobedience, withholding of taxes etc. if Article 50 is revoked or the people bullied into reversing their decision?

And don't the alleged threats to supply of certain goods expose a massive inherent weakness in our trade structure that is a result of 40 years of pandering to Eurocrats in the first place? Don't any of you see that this is in fact a very good reason why we did right in choosing to leave?
 
I've considered that. But law-breaking can be dealt with in fairly short order.

And there is no weakness in the trade structure. We chose to align with Europe because it is better to be part of the biggest trading block in the world than not.

Three years ago, we didn't have any trade negotiators because we didn't need them. We get great deals through Europe.

No deal means just that. We start with a baseline of zero, and with little trust, same as someone who refuses to pay his credit card off won't get a new card.
 
I've considered that. But law-breaking can be dealt with in fairly short order.

Really? The Police couldn't even deal with a few hundred climate loonies illegally blocking streets in London. Mass disobedience would overwhelm the authorities and could only be dealt with by the assistance of the military. But as long as your tomatoes are 10p a kilo less from the EU I suppose that's OK.

Our farms could produce far more food than now if they hadn't been paid OUR money via the EU to set aside useful land to ensure we became more reliant on imports and therefore subsidizing less efficient French farmers for example. Don't mention the plunder of our territorial waters either.

You'll just have to eat more Swizzels and less Haribo.
 
Jesus Christ.

Our farms can't produce more now. The document literally says that. It's the worst possible time to tear up trade agreements, due to it being winter.

Admit you've been sold a pup. Own it. Because I have no responsibility for the shit that is going to hit the fan in the name of everyone who ticked the Leave box.
 
Jesus Christ.

Our farms can't produce more now. The document literally says that. It's the worst possible time to tear up trade agreements, due to it being winter.

Admit you've been sold a pup. Own it. Because I have no responsibility for the shit that is going to hit the fan in the name of everyone who ticked the Leave box.

I didn't say produce more right now! I am saying there is plenty of under-utilized farm land.

The EU works like a controlling husband psychologically bullying the wife. Gradually he control which friends she can or cannot see, makes her reliant on his supposed munificence whilst not letting her earn to her full potential, controls the household bank accounts, hands her a bit of money and instructs her how to spend it and ignores the fact he's only in the house because she paid for much of it but still tells her who to let into it.
When one day she sees the light and says she wants out, he says "Without me you are NOTHING and don't forget it!"
Pffftttt....
 
I didn't say produce more right now! I am saying there is plenty of under-utilized farm land.

The EU works like a controlling husband psychologically bullying the wife. Gradually he control which friends she can or cannot see, makes her reliant on his supposed munificence whilst not letting her earn to her full potential, controls the household bank accounts, hands her a bit of money and instructs her how to spend it and ignores the fact he's only in the house because she paid for much of it but still tells her who to let into it.
When one day she sees the light and says she wants out, he says "Without me you are NOTHING and don't forget it!"
Pffftttt....

I've made this analogy before outside of this forum. Very apt.
 
I didn't say produce more right now! I am saying there is plenty of under-utilized farm land.

The EU works like a controlling husband psychologically bullying the wife. Gradually he control which friends she can or cannot see, makes her reliant on his supposed munificence whilst not letting her earn to her full potential, controls the household bank accounts, hands her a bit of money and instructs her how to spend it and ignores the fact he's only in the house because she paid for much of it but still tells her who to let into it.
When one day she sees the light and says she wants out, he says "Without me you are NOTHING and don't forget it!"
Pffftttt....

Umm...what? That gotta be one of the most ridiculous analogies ever made. EU is just sitting and waiting for you to make your own decision. EU hasn't done anything...it's all you! You decided to leave and now you can't agree how to leave while the EU is just silent. It's not EU's fault if your leaders lie to your own citizens and what it means to have brexit. You have had 3 years to get ready for brexit. Where are your brexit leaders to help you through this period?
 
Umm...what? That gotta be one of the most ridiculous analogies ever made. EU is just sitting and waiting for you to make your own decision. EU hasn't done anything...it's all you! You decided to leave and now you can't agree how to leave while the EU is just silent. It's not EU's fault if your leaders lie to your own citizens and what it means to have brexit. You have had 3 years to get ready for brexit. Where are your brexit leaders to help you through this period?
Then you need to go back and check out comments by the French and Spanish regarding fishing rights, Gibraltar. Amongst others. Our 'Brexit Leaders' are simply hamstrung by a bunch of traitorous MP's who are using the process for their own ends, ignoring the referendum result. It's all a numbers game, and while Leave got the numbers in the referendum, sadly these few hundred creeps who are sabotaging and obstructing the process have decide their opinions are more important than 17.4 million votes.

Oh, and if you actually believe the words in your post, tell my why they haven't just got fed up, lost patience and MADE us leave? Maybe because they don't want the UK to go and thus shrink their sorry little corrupt power-grabbing club?
 
Then you need to go back and check out comments by the French and Spanish regarding fishing rights, Gibraltar. Amongst others. Our 'Brexit Leaders' are simply hamstrung by a bunch of traitorous MP's who are using the process for their own ends, ignoring the referendum result. It's all a numbers game, and while Leave got the numbers in the referendum, sadly these few hundred creeps who are sabotaging and obstructing the process have decide their opinions are more important than 17.4 million votes.

Oh, and if you actually believe the words in your post, tell my why they haven't just got fed up, lost patience and MADE us leave? Maybe because they don't want the UK to go and thus shrink their sorry little corrupt power-grabbing club?

Of course the EU doesn't want you to go. It's not good for the EU and not good for you either obviously. But in the end it's your decision to make. Stop blaming the EU and start behaving like adults. All I hear is whining about E-USSR and corrupt leaders and whatever...get ready for the brexit instead! I'm sure your leaders become so pure and free of corruption right after the brexit is done. Then Dunover will finally be happy and not whine about anything.
 
But in the end it's your decision to make.

Yeah we made that decision back in 2016 but our wise leaders and those that run the country, the same people who decided to give us a referendum, had immediate second thoughts after the result was declared :laugh:

And have been dragging their feet like screaming toddlers ever since, we've had three years to resolve the problems outlined in this yellowhammer report.

I can quite understand your opinion on us needing to start behaving like adults but our governing class can't accept the outcome of a democratic vote which they spent millions trying to influence to go the other way. [So we've had the circus come to town in the HOC, and the ridiculous shenanigans and sly maneuvering that's entailed, for 3 bleedin' years]
 
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Our 'leaders' are no longer in control, the ERG and Dominic Cummings are, and we must brexit soon not because of 'democracy' its because of all those pesky EU offshore tax haven laws kicking in by Jan 2020 and JRM, Arron Banks, Nigel Farage, various newspaper owners and other stupidly rich people will have to pay their fair share of tax on their vast offshore fortunes and be slightly less stupidly rich. The real reason behind brexit urgency.

And so many mugs have fallen for what is now basically a cult of 'You lost get over it' and all those promised benefits pre-ref are long since forgotten.
 
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Not only forgotten. Apparently they never voted for those benefits. It’s astonishing Orwellian radicalisation.
 
Good point., they called it project fear but it's apparently what they knew would happen and what they wanted all along.
 

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