Brexit - whats the difference.....

[dunover]

NON-EU player wins biggest ever Big Time Gaming jackpot!!

Never would have happened if it wasn't for Brexit, would be a Swede or Malteser.

**or a Manxman ahem...**

UK Player Wins 1.475 million x bet on BTG's Millionaire Megapays, video! - Casinomeister Forum

 

[ChopleyIOM]

With the much vaunted Brexit Benefit UK-US trade deal now officially dead in the water, Daniel Hannan doesn't miss a beat and starts waxing lyrical about how the UK could get involved with the US-Mexico/Canada deal, saying he's talked to loads of people about it who are very interested. Only problem is the other guest actually sits on the committee which discusses that very thing and he says he's never heard anything about it. When pushed Hannan concedes he 'doesn't know'.

If only there were, oohhh I dunno, some kind of Single Market type arrangement right on our doorstep, that'd be a super thing to be a member of I reckon.

 

[cncas2123]

With the much vaunted Brexit Benefit UK-US trade deal now officially dead in the water, Daniel Hannan doesn't miss a beat and starts waxing lyrical about how the UK could get involved with the US-Mexico/Canada deal, saying he's talked to loads of people about it who are very interested. Only problem is the other guest actually sits on the committee which discusses that very thing and he says he's never heard anything about it. When pushed Hannan concedes he 'doesn't know'.

If only there were, oohhh I dunno, some kind of Single Market type arrangement right on our doorstep, that'd be a super thing to be a member of I reckon.

View attachment 158760

I think the democratic will of the people of the UK was to leave the single market on their doorstep due to the strings attached to it, so maybe a different single market mightnt have the same strings?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

That's odd, because in 2015 Daniel Hannan himself said 'absolutely no one is talking about threatening our place in the single market', and leaving the single market certainly wasn't an option on the referendum ballot.

The decision to leave the single market and customs union was only made in 2017, after the referendum, by Theresa May.

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[mack341]

If we were in the single market wouldn't that have meant adopting any new EU rules re the single market, without any say in what they were, like norway. I think to say to the british public 'right, we've done brexit, we're no longer in the EU...but we remain in the single market and customs union' would be a bit of a stretch.

This submarine business seems to have unnerved the french, the old rivalry is poking through. I think they resent us being free from the plodding, control freak eu bureaucracy. I'm not boris's biggest fan, but in terms of getting on with other leaders, using persuasion and charm, he's a bigger asset than macron or merkel. Keir starmer comes across like a tank top wearing librarian in comparison, he's devoid of charisma. Nice enough but would soon be forgotten by people worldwide.

 

[cncas2123]

That's odd, because in 2015 Daniel Hannan himself said 'absolutely no one is talking about threatening our place in the single market', and leaving the single market certainly wasn't an option on the referendum ballot.

The decision to leave the single market and customs union was only made in 2017, after the referendum, by Theresa May.

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Is it my imagination or was one of the conditions of being in the single market freedom of movement? I am sure another one was connected to the ECHC? In fact I believe there were many strings attached to remaining in the single market, and I believe that a democratic vote wanted to remove these strings? Or maybe I just imagined all this, maybe the UK could have had its sovereignty et al and still been a member of the single market without having to contribute or abide by the rules that the other 27 member states had to stick to? That sounds like a great deal to me, I am amazed that not a single leaver wanted this gold plated deal..

 

[dunover]

If we were in the single market wouldn't that have meant adopting any new EU rules re the single market, without any say in what they were, like norway. I think to say to the british public 'right, we've done brexit, we're no longer in the EU...but we remain in the single market and customs union' would be a bit of a stretch.

This submarine business seems to have unnerved the french, the old rivalry is poking through. I think they resent us being free from the plodding, control freak eu bureaucracy. I'm not boris's biggest fan, but in terms of getting on with other leaders, using persuasion and charm, he's a bigger asset than macron or merkel. Keir starmer comes across like a tank top wearing librarian in comparison, he's devoid of charisma. Nice enough but would soon be forgotten by people worldwide.

Yes, considered a virtue to get anywhere in the Labour Party.

 

[dunover]

Is it my imagination or was one of the conditions of being in the single market freedom of movement? I am sure another one was connected to the ECHC? In fact I believe there were many strings attached to remaining in the single market, and I believe that a democratic vote wanted to remove these strings? Or maybe I just imagined all this, maybe the UK could have had its sovereignty et al and still been a member of the single market without having to contribute or abide by the rules that the other 27 member states had to stick to? That sounds like a great deal to me, I am amazed that not a single leaver wanted this gold plated deal..

Yes, this is what I told @ChopleyIOM the other day when suggesting a quick fix was to be in the Customs Union viz-a-viz Norway. Alas that isn't possible without an open border for people from the EU as well as goods.

 

[geordiecolin]

I respect how Chops hangs onto every counter argument.Sometimes by a single thread. Especially when the EU itself's future is so uncertain yet sovereignty of many member states of the EU and its diktats are making the unions future so questionable in itself.
Do you really think that the EU has a future Chops? If so then why do you think it has?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

@mack341 @cncas2123 @dunover

Yes that is correct, remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union would have involved compromises that many on the Leave side would have found unacceptable, but do remember that wasn't on the referendum ballot, and I still think a more skilled politician than May could have sold a Brexit whereby the UK left the EU but remained in the Single Market and Customs Union.

I appreciate this is all largely academic now, but looking at the Brexit-related strife the UK is currently experiencing (which may well get considerably worse before it gets better, I see BP is now reporting fuel shortages at some of its petrol stations citing 'supply chain issues'), and as per my long post a few pages ago in this thread, I can't help but think this whole thing could have been done a lot better from both the Leave and Remain side.

Brexit - whats the difference..... - Page 177 - Casinomeister Forum

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I respect how Chops hangs onto every counter argument.Sometimes by a single thread. Especially when the EU itself's future is so uncertain yet sovereignty of many member states of the EU and its diktats are making the unions future so questionable in itself.
Do you really think that the EU has a future Chops? If so then why do you think it has?

The thing is geordie, I can't overstate how little of a fan I am of the EU in many regards, I found this post post I made on some videogame forums back in 2012 (this isn't the whole thing but an excerpt from it).

It seems to me that the banking elite is making a real play for total societal domination in Europe at the moment, what was in the past achieved with soldiers and bombs, is now achieved through crushing financial repression and 'austerity measures'. Greece is no longer a democratic nation in the true sense of the word, it'll be interesting to see if there's some sort of attempt to derail/postpone the upcoming elections, as the political parties that have signed up to what is effectively a hostile EU invasion are sure to be wiped out at the polls.

And beyond that, even in this thread I've not exactly been banging the drum for how great the EU is an organisation, my point has always been that like it or not, it's a major economic and political force in the world, and it's better to be a big 'top table player' in that organisation with some real clout, than sitting on the sidelines moaning about stuff. (Which is the status the UK has relegated itself to.)

It's like, if you're a member of a local golf club and there are elements of the club that you really like and enjoy, and you can see the benefits of, but also stuff you think is crap and want to change, what's the best way to effect that change?

Let's also assume you're a powerful member of that golf club, you're on the executive committee, you help pay towards its costs but you also reap rewards from it in other ways, and if you're pissed off about something the club does, your voice gets listened to and sometimes the entire golf club has to bend to do what you want. (Which is absolutely what the EU used to do all the bloody time for the UK.)

So in that scenario is it best to stay a member of the club and use the power and influence you have to steer the club in the direction you want it to go, or just cancel the whole lot and write the entire thing off as a bad deal? And the kicker is of course, with the latter choice, you realise you actually still want to play golf at the club and your business interests at the club are no longer considered because you're no longer a member and you gave up your spot on the committee.

The EU is deeply flawed in many ways, and yes, it's over-reached what it should be in some regards too, but the UK did at least have a seat at the top table of one of the most powerful economic and political forces in the world, what we said mattered, and even countries like Germany and France couldn't ignore what we said.

We gave it up for flags and fish, we didn't get the fish and our new blue passports are made in Poland.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

'There's going to be a shortage of British turkey this Christmas and it's entirely down to Brexit, nothing to do with Covid'

 

[mcgameboy]

Can I be middle-wing? rather than left-wing or right-wing.......I prefer to think for myself and not dedicate my life to a storm of confrontation and pigeonholing.

If you put on lots of weight, you can perhaps become a bingo-winger?

Not a great solution to your dilemma, I must admit.

I'll see myself out....

 

[pocoman]

'There's going to be a shortage of British turkey this Christmas and it's entirely down to Brexit, nothing to do with Covid'

This has been dealt with a hundred Times already Choppers - LOL WHO EVEN NEEDS TURKEYS LOL

 

[mack341]

That turkey farmer had about a 4 year transition phase to adjust, plan on the basis of worst case scenario. Is he saying it is impossible to find anyone capable in the uk who will do this work. And interesting how he said he's had this team 15 years, time wise that goes roughly back to when the EU expanded east, what did he do before then.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Well we'll still get the turkeys of course, but we'll be importing them from the EU......

There was an interview with another major UK turkey farmer on the news earlier, he was saying he was looking at a 20-30% reduction in his turkey yield this year and last year he was sold out. Same story, EU workers aren't interested anymore and he was reliant on them, Brits either aren't interested and/or not qualified to do the work.

Once again, he expects the gap to be plugged by turkey imports from the EU.

The 'barrier to entry' as it were for EU workers into the UK is now such that they can't be arsed, there are plenty of other opportunities for them within the EU.

@mack341 as for your question above he didn't have a four year transition phase at all, no one even knew what Johnson's deal would finally look like until last December, and businesses were promised 'the exact same benefits as being an EU member' all the way through the Brexit process, remember.

 

[mack341]

Well we'll still get the turkeys of course, but we'll be importing them from the EU......

There was an interview with another major UK turkey farmer on the news earlier, he was saying he was looking at a 20-30% reduction in his turkey yield this year and last year he was sold out. Same story, EU workers aren't interested anymore and he was reliant on them, Brits either aren't interested and/or not qualified to do the work.

Once again, he expects the gap to be plugged by turkey imports from the EU.

The 'barrier to entry' as it were for EU workers into the UK is now such that they can't be arsed, there are plenty of other opportunities for them within the EU.

@mack341 as for your question above he didn't have a four year transition phase at all, no one even knew what Johnson's deal would finally look like until last December, and businesses were promised 'the exact same benefits as being an EU member' all the way through the Brexit process, remember.

As per my post 'plan on the basis of worst case scenario' I still feel that is relevant.

I don't know why boris hasn't opted to permit temporary workers but maybe then he'd have to allow other sectors the same option, and then it distorts the labour market.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The thing is mack the guy's a turkey farmer, not a trade negotiator. What do you suppose he should have done? Researched all the nuances and impacts of all the possible Brexit outcomes and expend his time and money creating a contingency plan for every single one? The government didn't have the remotest clue what it was doing and where everything was going to land, and it also lied throughout about what the impacts of Brexit would be, what chance does a turkey farmer have against that backdrop?

It's literally the job of government to sort this shit out, and the government failed, and British businesses are paying the price, and now we get to eat EU-sourced turkeys at Christmas. It's almost poetic in its awfulness.

 

[Kroffe]

Found a video of one of the EU workers saying goodbye to the turkeys for the last time.
Heartbreaking.

 

[mack341]

The thing is mack the guy's a turkey farmer, not a trade negotiator. What do you suppose he should have done? Researched all the nuances and impacts of all the possible Brexit outcomes and expend his time and money creating a contingency plan for every single one? The government didn't have the remotest clue what it was doing and where everything was going to land, and it also lied throughout about what the impacts of Brexit would be, what chance does a turkey farmer have against that backdrop?

It's literally the job of government to sort this shit out, and the government failed, and British businesses are paying the price, and now we get to eat EU-sourced turkeys at Christmas. It's almost poetic in its awfulness.

The only outcome relevant to him was would he be able to employ his team of EU nationals or not, I don't think it was that multidimensional; I'm sure there must've been a grapevine of info in his circles regarding what was likely, some poultry farmer's lobby group in touch with the govt or local mp's.

 

[mack341]

Just an add-on point, I agree broadly the govt's handling of things doesn't come across as particularly good, and that could be applied from the day after the result, asleep at the wheel a bit in terms of anticipating the problems (possibly because the machine of govt never agreed with or wanted brexit). 6/10 so far rather than the 8/10 you'd want.
There probably should be a brexit committee of enthusiastic mp's to oversee the project's teething problems, help find solutions, question the depts etc..

 

[Kroffe]

There probably should be a brexit committee of enthusiastic mp's to oversee the project's teething problems, help find solutions, question the depts etc..

Solution to business being slower due to Brexit.



Its possible that the issue with the turkeys may require a different solution.

 

[mack341]

EU revolt: 'Whole German public' fed up of paying for Brussels' spending ahead of election (msn-daily express)

Ms Munch, from the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, disputed claims about a pro-EU German government after Angela Merkel.
Ms Munch: "There is a more negative attitude.
"We have East Germans who are not so fond of the European Union.
"We have a whole German public not so fond of paying too much money to other member states.
"It is much easier to become pro-European when you are paid, than when you are paying for it. That is the difference."

-------
Maybe reform will occur, if defence is added the eu budget has to increase surely; I read france's budget contribution will be 25 billion euros, obviously they get money back, but where's the democratic aspect in how the money is spent.​

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Just an add-on point, I agree broadly the govt's handling of things doesn't come across as particularly good, and that could be applied from the day after the result, asleep at the wheel a bit in terms of anticipating the problems (possibly because the machine of govt never agreed with or wanted brexit). 6/10 so far rather than the 8/10 you'd want.
There probably should be a brexit committee of enthusiastic mp's to oversee the project's teething problems, help find solutions, question the depts etc..

My problem with that analysis mack is it suggests that Brexit itself isn't really the problem, it's just the way it's been done that's an issue, whereas my take on this is that Brexit is simply bad news, the old adage 'you can't polish a turd' springs to mind. Brexit is a turd that can't be polished.

That said, we've got the turd now whether we like it or not, and we don't have the option to return it to sender, so I think the best we can do is try to mitigate the worst of its effects, and for me that means getting back in the Single Market and Customs Union, with all the compromises that entails.

Let's see how things go this winter, if any of these shortages start to turn critical, the public mood will shift, and shift quickly. Some mainstream news outlets are now openly saying that Brexit is a contributing factor to the current problems (although the BBC appears to be largely cowed). Supermarkets are now warning that price rises are imminent, and then we've still got the tax increases to come, along with generally rising inflation.

Just as a quick example, from the 1st October EU identity cards are no longer accepted for entry into the UK, truckers from most EU countries drive all over Europe with a truck licence and an EU ID card, they're not going to want to obtain a full passport just to deliver to the UK, it's a bureaucratic hurdle they're not going to bother with.

This situation could get a lot worse before it gets better.

 

[mack341]

Chop I'll let that percolate through my grey matter rather than rush a reply.

The announcements of do not panic buy petrol have obviously had the opposite effect, the public doesn't have the same confidence in govt as they used to, it can either carry on declining or restore, that will take some doing on current form though. It's not all bad but something is missing that was there before, the belief central and local govt had a decent handle on things.

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