Betfair BlackJack - too strange !!!

poser

Dormant Account
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Location
Hamburg
Hi,

I just had my strangest BJ experience I ever had:

Playing normal BJ at Betfair Casino:

In 36 hands, the dealer had 12 times a natural BJ, nearly all with a Ten showing, getting an Ace as second hole card.

Plus, the dealer had extreme good luck in drawing cards, eg, 5 times to 21.

I won 5 hands of those 36 (2 pushes) !!

Too bad that the history doesn't show the exact cards.

This is the first time, I really think a game is broken. If you had this, you'd believe it too...
 

chuchu59

gambling addict
PABnonaccred
CAG
PABinit
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Location
SOMEWHERE IN ASIA
Drawing 5 times to 21 out of 36 hands is not impossible but 12 natural BJs out of 36 is near impossible. How many BJs did you get? If none at all, you might consider quitting this game altogether.
 

james01

Dormant account
Joined
May 13, 2007
Location
Germany
that does seem fixed, but.. here's the thing. In the lottery, the chances of the numbers being 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 are exactly the same as them being any other combination.
36 hands just isn't a large enough sample to "prove" that it's fixed. Still, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, I wouldn't be surprised if it has webbed feet.
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
I had very unlikely losing session at Betfair Zero Blackjack too, which I posted in Games with 'par' odds thread. Although unlikely results can happen sometimes, the frequency with which they occur on Chartwell software (the one Betfair uses) does really raise the question of the randomness of this particular software.
 

poser

Dormant Account
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Location
Hamburg
Hi,

@ Chuchu59: I had some BJs too, near all were pushed.

belive it or not, my brother played on Betfair Black Jack today too, as he had the same bonus as me.

I told him before of my experience and I was on the phone when his game went stranger and stranger too. Dealer had too many BJs, many 21s (6+T+5...), and he had a series of 20 hands with NO wins at the end of his play (4 ties)....

I was playing at Betfair before and NEVER had this...

Now, thats really suspicious...

I know: small sample size. But I play A LOT BJ, so I know bad streaks, but I really couldn't believe it, when I played that session...

EDIT: Just realized, that my history stops at the middle of my last session !!!!! Can't believe it.
 

chuchu59

gambling addict
PABnonaccred
CAG
PABinit
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Location
SOMEWHERE IN ASIA
Throw your brother's experience in and combined with mine and you start to believe that chartwell BJ is well, really streaky. My experience was over a year ago when I lost ten straight hands after raising my bet to $5 per hand at a poker room that used chartwell. I shrugged it off believing it was purely back luck then.
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
Throw your brother's experience in and combined with mine and you start to believe that chartwell BJ is well, really streaky. My experience was over a year ago when I lost ten straight hands after raising my bet to $5 per hand at a poker room that used chartwell. I shrugged it off believing it was purely back luck then.

I would like to correct one misconception here. People seem to think that a game can be "streaky" and fair and random at the same time. That's not mathematically possible. If the game indeed is streaky and gives results outside 1 Standard Deviation more than 31.7% of the time, then it has to have some non-random element to it and it is the same thing as being rigged. In other words: A fair Blackjack has to behave exactly the same independent of software used.
 

james01

Dormant account
Joined
May 13, 2007
Location
Germany
Throw your brother's experience in and combined with mine and you start to believe that chartwell BJ is well, really streaky. My experience was over a year ago when I lost ten straight hands after raising my bet to $5 per hand at a poker room that used chartwell. I shrugged it off believing it was purely back luck then.

Chuchu: were you playing poker? Because poker is a whole different ball game - presumably you're playing against other players and not the site.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
Hi,

I just had my strangest BJ experience I ever had:

Playing normal BJ at Betfair Casino:

In 36 hands, the dealer had 12 times a natural BJ, nearly all with a Ten showing, getting an Ace as second hole card.

Plus, the dealer had extreme good luck in drawing cards, eg, 5 times to 21.

I won 5 hands of those 36 (2 pushes) !!

Too bad that the history doesn't show the exact cards.

This is the first time, I really think a game is broken. If you had this, you'd believe it too...
I assume by natural BJ you mean only 2-card 21s (not any hand with sum of 21). With this assumption, I get a 1 in ~18 million chance of 12+ out of 36 being BJs. And a 1 in ~45 billion chance of 12+ out of 36 being 10 first BJs.
 

dorsetpotter

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 25, 2008
Location
dorset
betfair live dealer blacjack

Drawing 5 times to 21 out of 36 hands is not impossible but 12 natural BJs out of 36 is near impossible. How many BJs did you get? If none at all, you might consider quitting this game altogether.

I played live dealer blackjack the dealer had 5 blacjacks in 8 hands, i then played black on the roulette, 7 hands you have guessed it 7 straight reds, there staff are not much better completely incompetant avoid this casino at all costs, anybody lie to check my playing record contact me
 

dorsetpotter

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 25, 2008
Location
dorset
betfair live dealer blacjack

Drawing 5 times to 21 out of 36 hands is not impossible but 12 natural BJs out of 36 is near impossible. How many BJs did you get? If none at all, you might consider quitting this game altogether.

I played live dealer blackjack the dealer had 5 blacjacks in 8 hands, i then played black on the roulette, 7 hands you have guessed it 7 straight reds, there staff are not much better completely incompetant avoid this casino at all costs, anybody lie to check my playing record contact me
 

jstrike

Dormant account
Joined
Nov 16, 2010
Location
Europe
That's pretty weird, but definitely get those hand histories for analysis. That's priority #1 if you wannta prove anything.

Side note, when the hell did 8 deck blackjack become standard? I know now there's 3D televisions and people wearing star trek crap on their head, but seriously, who said 8 decks was an acceptable sized blackjack shoe?
 

Repro

Dormant account
PABnonaccred
PABnononaccred
Joined
Sep 15, 2010
Location
Netherlands
Uuuuhm... i don't want to act like a little bitch, but... why are people necroing a 3-year thread ???
 

secret2

irishbrit62
Joined
Nov 30, 2008
Location
New York, United States
Since the days of UB and AP , where I played almost every day for a few years, and witnessing the dealers hand of BJ 6 times in a row...and then the bots, it became apparent to me that I shouldn't play BJ online ever again. I mourn not playing Elimination BJ, that was very entertaining!...hence my user name.

I love to play it but I will never play it for real money online ever. I can't wait to go to AC and then play BJ. RTG BJ is not entertaining for me (USA).
 

jstrike

Dormant account
Joined
Nov 16, 2010
Location
Europe
Uuuuhm... i don't want to act like a little bitch, but... why are people necroing a 3-year thread ???

Don't know. Again I regret not checking dates more closely. I feel like a guy that wandered by a car accident and went :eek2:
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
Side note, when the hell did 8 deck blackjack become standard? I know now there's 3D televisions and people wearing star trek crap on their head, but seriously, who said 8 decks was an acceptable sized blackjack shoe?

Well, for Live Dealer games they do it to eliminate card counting. You do realize that with access to computer calculating power and the ease of tracking each card seen on the video, card counting with a computer is far more easy than in a physical casino where you cannot use any aids.
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
I wouldn't touch any BF related system as of the moment. Lately, they have been having problems internally.

Betfair is in for a rough ride over data theft*
30 Sep 2011*

Betfair will only refund bets in jackpot error*
28 Sep 2011*

Betfair 'removed £52,000 from account'*
23 Sep 2011*

Yeah I must admit that this BJ result hurt me a bit:

Expired Image

As for the 3-Handed surrender game: That's a 64.7% payout across 858 (286 x 3) player hands in total. The game's expected RTP is 99.65%.
 
Last edited:

bpb

Banned User - repeated violations of rule 1.14 (tr
PABnonaccred
PABnorogue
Joined
Jun 17, 2004
Location
Haverhill
As for the 3-Handed surrender game: That's a 64.7% payout across 858 (286 x 3) player hands in total. The game's expected RTP is 99.65%.

Why do you think your result is remotely interesting or statistically significant?
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
Why do you think your result is remotely interesting or statistically significant?

Some may find it interesting, some may not. Have you estimated the statistical significance of the above result before you made your comment?
 

Tengil

Senior Member
Joined
May 4, 2006
Location
Finland
Some may find it interesting, some may not. Have you estimated the statistical significance of the above result before you made your comment?

Well I find it highly interesting, especially because that should be basically impossible. Are you analyzing it further?

And its clear he hasnt estimated anything before he posted, trolls gonna troll.
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
Well I find it highly interesting, especially because that should be basically impossible. Are you analyzing it further?

And its clear he hasnt estimated anything before he posted, trolls gonna troll.

Yes, luckily it looks like that the detailed hand histories are available for the whole data in question so I would be able to conduct an analysis over the overall results on this game. It will take some time though.

What makes the result less significant, however, is that I had a very good upswing too, so even with that terrible negative -28K amount I ended up close to breaking even. But the thing is that the loss rate on that particular game is so statistically extreme that it does look like the software simply decided to take back what I had won there before with genuine luck.
 
Top