Blackjack Switch - Variance

wesleyhoulihan

Newbie member
PABnoaccred
Joined
Sep 17, 2018
Location
UK
Are there any maths whizzes around that can work out variances and standard deviations for BJ Switch (playing optimal strategy)? I've had some crazy swings on this game and maybe its a lot more volatile than I give it credit for. The last run is probably the worst of them all so far. I'd like to roughly work out the likelihood of a run like this. Playing it it just seemed like the dealer was constantly hitting 20 or 21 no matter what card they were showing. Pushing 1 hand was the best I could do a lot of the time. On a game with a 99.87% RTP this must be pretty unlikely. Screenshot below. Stakes were constant 100 per hand (ie 200 per round prior to splits/doubles)

Screenshot 2020-09-14 at 21.12.08.png
 
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wesleyhoulihan

Newbie member
PABnoaccred
Joined
Sep 17, 2018
Location
UK
It's pretty painful. I'm happy to accept losses of course but its pretty extreme. I think I'm done with that game now. I continued on today but it was just the exact same. Dealer constantly hitting 20 and 21. At no point did I win a few hands in a row, a constant downward trajectory. The Playtech RNG strikes again

Screenshot 2020-09-15 at 16.34.28.png
 

davidsmith56

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2012
Location
Kent,United Kingdom
It is not just Playtech or Blackjack Switch but computer blackjack in general.It beggars belief at how often the dealer makes 20 or 21 or blackjack from a 10 upcard or how the player consistently is dealt a low card when doubling down.Stick to the live game and i will accept the award of a tin foil hat.:D
 

JordanR

Newbie member
Joined
Aug 19, 2020
Location
London
I'm not going to be able to work it out but a couple of questions anyone who could work it out would need to ask:
Are you playing perfect strategy, and is your bet size consistent each hand?

I'm not particularly well-versed with Blackjack Switch but it seems like there could be more RTP variation than standard, depending on how you play the switches. Standard blackjack is already notorious for having real observed RTP at casinos well below the theoretical RTP
 

wesleyhoulihan

Newbie member
PABnoaccred
Joined
Sep 17, 2018
Location
UK
I'm not going to be able to work it out but a couple of questions anyone who could work it out would need to ask:
Are you playing perfect strategy, and is your bet size consistent each hand?

I'm not particularly well-versed with Blackjack Switch but it seems like there could be more RTP variation than standard, depending on how you play the switches. Standard blackjack is already notorious for having real observed RTP at casinos well below the theoretical RTP
Answer to both your questions is yes. Consistent bet size and switching calculator in use for decisions. The switching does make the variance calculations tricky. Could understand how it increases it. A lot of the time you are sacrificing one hand to make the other hand 10 or 11 and then doubling on that hand. As @davidsmith56 has said, it was crazy how often I was getting a low card or ace when doing this and the dealer rarely busting. And of course always getting a 10 when hitting on 12!
 

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