Ukraine Mess

[wyder33]

I read some of the comments and it dawns on me that not everyone knows why the US and UK are so involved in this conflict. Well, the answer is the Budapest Memorandum. If Ukraine had not disarmed under this agreement, Russia would never have attacked Ukraine. The United Kingdom and the US will simply feel that they will abide by the then concluded agreement. Zelenski feels cheated just like the whole Ukrainian nation, but not by the above-mentioned countries, but by Russia. I encourage you to familiarize yourself with what the Budapest Memorandum was.

 

[Webzcas]

This is well worth a watch

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[bamberfishcake]

I actually disagree Bamber. Our letting the eye off the ball and subsequent 30 year's worth of real term cuts to the UK Defence budget, puts us in a very worrying position. If the planned cuts to the Army go ahead and not reversed, it will be our smallest force in terms of numbers since the 1700's.

Unfortunately, with regards to Russia, both Churchill and General Patton were bang on the money in their assessment on how it should have been dealt with.

Perhaps have a look at the brilliant Julia Davis's work translating the Russian Television channels and you will see exactly what message the Kremlin is sending to their countrymen and women. Chilling if not laughable at the same time.

Its far too hard to find the truth. Imagine the time you would need to watch all the worlds media, which is completely contradictory from East to West, before being able to draw a solid conclusion with confidence.

I can only judge by what I have seen and heard, and what little I know in the grand scheme of things.

But first and foremost, a country's forces should be there to defend itself from invasion. I cannot think of a time in my life, except for the Falklands, when the UK has actually been under any kind of threat apart from minority group terrorism.

Back to the Ukraine War - many claim that this has been building since 2014 when a civil war broke out, courtesy, some say, of US destabilisation. I am also under the impression, rightly or wrongly, that the country is divided by the civil war, pretty much into a 50/50 split between pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian.

I do not like that we are supplying them with arms and have been training them for war since 2014, and continue to do so while nurses and teachers strike due to low pay. I don't see piling money into a war we are not directly involved with is going to benefit our nation or anyone else's to be honest.

I think we either get directly involved or leave it alone, not fuel the conflict with arms and training, basically profiting from encouraging death but doing nothing to solve the conflict.

Enough of our money has been spent on defence. We may have much less than before, but we are still up there amongst the most equipped in the world.

 

[Webzcas]

Without an armed forces, there will be no schools for teachers to teach in or hospitals for nurses to work in. Sorry, but I completely disagree with you. Unfortunately defence spending is a necessary evil and the swathing cuts to the defence budget are now coming home to roost

 

[Daavid63]

Its far too hard to find the truth. Imagine the time you would need to watch all the worlds media, which is completely contradictory from East to West, before being able to draw a solid conclusion with confidence.

I can only judge by what I have seen and heard, and what little I know in the grand scheme of things.

But first and foremost, a country's forces should be there to defend itself from invasion. I cannot think of a time in my life, except for the Falklands, when the UK has actually been under any kind of threat apart from minority group terrorism.

Back to the Ukraine War - many claim that this has been building since 2014 when a civil war broke out, courtesy, some say, of US destabilisation. I am also under the impression, rightly or wrongly, that the country is divided by the civil war, pretty much into a 50/50 split between pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian.

I do not like that we are supplying them with arms and have been training them for war since 2014, and continue to do so while nurses and teachers strike due to low pay. I don't see piling money into a war we are not directly involved with is going to benefit our nation or anyone else's to be honest.

I think we either get directly involved or leave it alone, not fuel the conflict with arms and training, basically profiting from encouraging death but doing nothing to solve the conflict.

Enough of our money has been spent on defence. We may have much less than before, but we are still up there amongst the most equipped in the world.

No civil war in Ukraine, no 50/50 split. Just a war against an invading force.

Militias trained by the Russians tried to annex the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and little green men invaded Crimea and annexed it.

Then the Russians invaded the rest of Ukraine.

We are directly involved, if you mean boots on the ground then that's a current major escalation and would indeed lead to a nuclear exchange. We are supplying massive amounts of training in the UK to Ukrainian troops in conjunction with other NATO countries and a massive amount of intelligence (Sat, and Rivet Joint operations in Black sea and borders), weapons systems, again in conjunction with NATO partners and affiliated countries..IE the Baltics.

 

[bamberfishcake]

Without an armed forces, there will be no schools for teachers to teach in or hospitals for nurses to work in. Sorry, but I completely disagree with you. Unfortunately defence spending is a necessary evil and the swathing cuts to the defence budget are now coming home to roost

Nobody is saying 'without an armed force.' I am not advocating for an arms amnesty.

Perhaps some of the billions spent could be used for better things than funding a War in Ukraine that we are kind of involved with; but not really involved with; just stoking the fires and making a few quid from it.

I am also not opposed to going directly into Russia should the need require it. We are undeniably involved in a proxy war for profit I am afraid.

I am from a family with a proud naval heritage. My Uncle was quite high up in the Navy before he retired, and he is a little bemused by what's going on. He is a forces man through and through and used to necessary evils.

 

[bamberfishcake]

No civil war in Ukraine, no 50/50 split. Just a war against an invading force.

Militias trained by the Russians tried to annex the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and little green men invaded Crimea and annexed it.

Then the Russians invaded the rest of Ukraine.

We are directly involved, if you mean boots on the ground then that's a current major escalation and would indeed lead to a nuclear exchange. We are supplying massive amounts of training in the UK to Ukrainian troops in conjunction with other NATO countries and a massive amount of intelligence (Sat, and Rivet Joint operations in Black sea and borders), weapons systems, again in conjunction with NATO partners and affiliated countries..IE the Baltics.

Leading to a nuclear exchange is speculation. We have already been threatened.

This way, the war will never end. I don't see this as a winning situation. Cannot see any resolution except for a peace deal, a full war, or this - a neverending half-arsed conflict.

As for the green men and 50/50 split, its undeniable that the USA has influenced much of what goes on over there since the civil war.

 

[Daavid63]

Leading to a nuclear exchange is speculation. We have already been threatened.

This way, the war will never end. I don't see this as a winning situation. Cannot see any resolution except for a peace deal, a full war, or this - a neverending half-arsed conflict.

As for the green men and 50/50 split, its undeniable that the USA has influenced much of what goes on over there since the civil war.

If NATO puts boots on the ground in an official capacity then a nuclear exchange will take place, whether tactical or ICBM's, why do you think NATO has not deployed troops?

The USA..oh dear.

Maybe the article below will help you understand one of the reasons Russia invaded, not only a land grab, but mineral wealth as well. Anyway I will bow out now.

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[Webzcas]

You really need to check out Julia Davis's YouTube Channel here:

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To get a handle on what Russian propagandist's message is being conveyed to the Russian public. Quite sickening and albeit laughable as well.

Not a day goes by when one of them doesn't wish for Nuclear Armageddon

This is the mentality of what Ukraine is up against and why the west is right in supplying arms to Ukraine.

 

[deleted20230517]

This is the mentality of what Ukraine is up against and why the west is right in supplying arms to Ukraine.

And thus involving the EU, US and all that, into a proxy war (because thats what this is). The true problem is the ever expanding EU and the Nato litterally installing equipment near moscow which triggers russia to say no more at some point.

We had a referendum on Ukr and i think it was a phat no due to it's corruption of the country. Now it's getting accepted in the EU with no referenda, no nothing, just a casual oh it's convenient to insert Ukraine into the EU.

The weapons supply does benefit one party alone; the arms dealers. All the funding send to Ukraine is directly diverted to buying more and more weapons and thus making the US bank on this proxy war thats bin going on.

You dont want to escalate with a country that has more nuclear warheads then any other country in the world. Why the f would you provoke it in the first place? We used to be fine; we used to be OK. But remember when this escalates they have enough to wipe out EU, US and they coud'nt care less if they die at the proces. Any idea the consequences a nuclear war will bring?

It's death and destruction. Not just with the initial blast but for years to come as well. And then we have a general stating on public news that we could go to nuclear war with china in 2025. I mean the world is in a bad place right now, and more weapons brought to Ukraine is only worsening the situation on long term for everyone.

Germany is right not to deliver any more tanks due to escalation - but not even a day later they agreed todo so. Whats the point of this political correctness. One or the other is giving in sooner or later at the cost of thousands of lives and ripped apart family's.

 

[Webzcas]

.You dont want to escalate with a country that has more nuclear warheads then any other country in the world. Why the f would you provoke it in the first place? We used to be fine; we used to be OK. But remember when this escalates they have enough to wipe out EU, US and they coud'nt care less if they die at the proces. Any idea the consequences a nuclear war will bring?

I live not too far from Sailsbury, you know what happened there a few years back don't you? A couple of Russian tourists checking out the spire of the cathedral no less.

This has got nothing to do with NATO or indeed the EU. This is about one man's ambition to restore the old Soviet Union.

 

[bamberfishcake]

I'm not supporting Putin, merely pointing out that this proxy war is riddled with far too much profit-making and not enough problem-solving.

I don't subscribe to the idea that we are not poking the bear because he has nuclear capability. It sounds like a brick-wall excuse to use humanitarian excuses to fund its continuation.

Its a tragedy for sure.

 

[mack341]

This is about one man's ambition to restore the old Soviet Union.

Surely if his plan has been to do this then going in in 2014 would've made more sense, invading 8 years later provided time for the west to upgrade the ukrainian armed forces making 'the first step' to restoring the soviet union harder?

 

[Webzcas]

I see more veiled threats made again…

 

[goatwack]

Usually the preserve of business meetings, social virtual gatherings, or to discuss what party food to arrange for Irene's 18th.

Less so to gather as a collective band of pro-Russia enthusiasts. You'd have to wonder how stupid people are still capable of being, in a constantly- monitored, technological age we live in, and think nothing of discussing their thoughts in Ukraine, during the height of the conflict.

Then you remember yes, of course they're capable! Unfortunately for them then, as they get caught out and chastised by Ukraine's security services and charged as traitors, only to have the national anthem played as the finishing flourish!

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[sufferinsilence]

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[bamberfishcake]

A Central Bank Digital Currency suggestion for Ukraine.



p.s. Skip to 12:38 for the Ukranian promotional video.

 

[mack341]

Slightly hard to follow but seems like the soldiers are exhausted, cold etc.. and are being required to go back in.

It's as I thought they're outmanned and outgunned and miracles are being expected of them, the tanks [mostly old] and other vehicles on their way are not going to make enough of a difference [imo].

Russia is calling up 300,000 or more reservists, who I'm guessing have some military training/experience, whereas Ukraine is sending the modern equivalent of press gangs to go round streets and areas looking for youngsters who might just be old enough, and old people who might still be fit enough, bearing in mind the upper age is 60.

NB: The sensitive content is a message that the men all died, don't know if that is true or possibly russian misinformation.

 

[bamberfishcake]

It's as I thought they're outmanned and outgunned and miracles are being expected of them, the tanks [mostly old] and other vehicles on their way are not going to make enough of a difference [imo].

Russia is calling up 300,000 or more reservists,

I just saw Britain announced a training program for Ukrainian fighter pilots to be able to fly NATO planes.

Like you mentioned, we are also sending tanks now. I agree, I don't think it will make much difference.

Was only a short while ago that we were told planes and tanks were off the table.

I don't mind admitting I am more worried about the future of the world than ever before in my life.

This is a really strange situation, at what point are we declaring war on Russia? Are we already at war, and the approach is to soften the blow? Is it only when we have boots on the ground? With AI and automated military equipment, drones, artillery etc, at what point is the use of British equipment a declaration of war?

Given the approach by the Allied countries, I don't see any swift resolution or relief for Ukraine in the near future, certainly not this year. I see only escalation of the conflict. Russia's defence minister has said more Western involvement will make things worse, which, of course, he would say, but I think it's the truth.

I see two ways out of this current situation - full-scale war or Ukraine signing their surrender. I get the impression that Ukraine is falling. Russia is making steady headway, and the currently bombarded city of Bakhmut, I believe, will fall.

 

[mack341]

I just saw Britain announced a training program for Ukrainian fighter pilots to be able to fly NATO planes.

Like you mentioned, we are also sending tanks now. I agree, I don't think it will make much difference.

Was only a short while ago that we were told planes and tanks were off the table.

I don't mind admitting I am more worried about the future of the world than ever before in my life.

This is a really strange situation, at what point are we declaring war on Russia? Are we already at war, and the approach is to soften the blow? Is it only when we have boots on the ground? With AI and automated military equipment, drones, artillery etc, at what point is the use of British equipment a declaration of war?

Given the approach by the Allied countries, I don't see any swift resolution or relief for Ukraine in the near future, certainly not this year. I see only escalation of the conflict. Russia's defence minister has said more Western involvement will make things worse, which, of course, he would say, but I think it's the truth.

I see two ways out of this current situation - full-scale war or Ukraine signing their surrender. I get the impression that Ukraine is falling. Russia is making steady headway, and the currently bombarded city of Bakhmut, I believe, will fall.

One view I recently heard was that ukrainian fighter pilots who are experienced at flying miGs will find it harder to learn how to fly a f-16 than a younger novice type pilot, as the systems are totally different. Does kind of make sense. Russian military doctrine also puts a lot of emphasis on air defense, much more than the US, as they cannot match the number and capability of Nato's airforce, so questionable whether 100 jets or something would make a difference.

I think the western govts hope by prolonging the war or outcome there is a better chance Putin will be ousted, economic sanctions bite the longer they go on, but saying that it's not the 80's anymore Russia still has lots of trade/oil export avenues, their old ally china's wealth and development the biggest difference to then and now.

Ukraine is losing lots of men trying to hold on in the east of the country, men which they can't simply replace, imo having a battle like bakhmut go on for months suits russia, as they can then concentrate their artillery and intel efforts in one place rather than spread out over miles with small skirmishes, where Ukraine can use hit and run guerilla type engagements.

This recent article from Colonel Richard Kemp warns of shock gains for Putin:

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Until now, the narrative in the West has been that Ukraine is comfortably winning this war, albeit while sustaining heavy bombardments on its major cities. The reality is more complex. The latest estimates suggest that each side may have taken upwards of 120,000 casualties already – hardly indicative of a triumph for Ukraine. And there may be worse to come: the truth is that recent promises of new combat equipment for Ukraine – especially longer range missiles, tanks and other armoured vehicles – are unlikely to be fulfilled in time to have an impact in this battle if Putin launches his offensive on the timetable Kyiv predicts.

...It is essential that we not only maintain our combat supplies to Ukraine, but step it up even further and even faster. If Putin gains more ground, then Kyiv will need to counterattack more strongly, and will need more armoured vehicles, better air defences, longer-range missiles and vast quantities of artillery shells and ammunition. The only alternative is that President Zelensky is forced to come to terms, handing victory to Russia and defeat to Ukraine and Nato.

The problem with that is we're not on a war footing in terms of munitions factories as we were in ww2, and this war does seem to be based around artillery, for all we know Russia may have been building up a massive stock of shells since 2014 just in case.

There is a danger of escalation and a bigger potential for false alarms in the 'nuclear weapons have been launched area' where first strike is a major advantage, I'm not too concerned atm but If the ukraine was directly attacking crimea in force that would be more sleep disruptive because the stakes are then much higher in terms of potential retaliation. It does worry me that man's fate/destiny could be tied to the nuclear weapon, that we invented our own destruction.

 

[slot_zombie]

Unfortunately we are likely to see big gains if not outright victory for Russia this year. There is simply no way Ukraine can win it on their own.

We should never have got involved in this because now we are either on the "losing side" or we go to full war with Russia, with all the horrendous consequences that entails. As unpalatable as it is, there would have been far less loss of.life if Russia were simply allowed to roll in. The end result is the same.

 

[mack341]

I looked up the minsk agreement the other day and I can't see anything that controversial, or more than we give scotland and wales, or the good friday peace agreement. Putin was not going to be around forever, whereas they're in a much worse situation now.

 

[wyder33]

Unfortunately we are likely to see big gains if not outright victory for Russia this year. There is simply no way Ukraine can win it on their own.

We should never have got involved in this because now we are either on the "losing side" or we go to full war with Russia, with all the horrendous consequences that entails. As unpalatable as it is, there would have been far less loss of.life if Russia were simply allowed to roll in. The end result is the same.

I understand that in the event of something you would give your homeland? I haven't read more nonsense. I know that people who are far from the conflict have a hard time understanding some things. Put yourself in the place of the Ukrainians, I wonder if you would like it if someone attacked your country and the rest of the world watched passively. Do you at least know how many kilometers the NATO-Russia border is and how many would it be if Rossia won Ukraine? Maybe it's time to get interested in this and the effects it would have in the future. This is not only about Ukraine, but also about peace in the rest of Europe. If you think that Russia would stop at the Ukrainian-Polish border, you are very wrong.

 

[mack341]

I understand that in the event of something you would give your homeland? I haven't read more nonsense. I know that people who are far from the conflict have a hard time understanding some things. Put yourself in the place of the Ukrainians, I wonder if you would like it if someone attacked your country and the rest of the world watched passively. Do you at least know how many kilometers the NATO-Russia border is and how many would it be if Rossia won Ukraine? Maybe it's time to get interested in this and the effects it would have in the future. This is not only about Ukraine, but also about peace in the rest of Europe. If you think that Russia would stop at the Ukrainian-Polish border, you are very wrong.

Ukraine's borders have changed many times over the centuries, crimea was added by khrushchev to the ukrainian state in 1954, some of west ukraine was part of poland until the 2nd world war including Lviv. Border changes often happen in peace deals to end wars, look how europe's have changed over the years.

What was so wrong or terrible about the minsk agreement, which would've seen the eastern areas still part of the ukraine but with a degree of self governance due to the majority number of ethnic russian ukrainians that lived there?

You would wish us to get militarily involved with boots on the ground and jets in the sky? If not the most likely outcome is how Zombie described, Russia will take those eastern areas and ukraine will lose more men trying to fight to keep them but without success, the only other hope is putin is dislodged and replaced by someone more moderate, that doesn't look to be on the cards.

 

[slot_zombie]

I understand that in the event of something you would give your homeland? I haven't read more nonsense. I know that people who are far from the conflict have a hard time understanding some things. Put yourself in the place of the Ukrainians, I wonder if you would like it if someone attacked your country and the rest of the world watched passively. Do you at least know how many kilometers the NATO-Russia border is and how many would it be if Rossia won Ukraine? Maybe it's time to get interested in this and the effects it would have in the future. This is not only about Ukraine, but also about peace in the rest of Europe. If you think that Russia would stop at the Ukrainian-Polish border, you are very wrong.

Russia aren't stupid. They would not attack NATO.

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Ukraine but with all the equipment in the world, eventual defeat is inevitable. All this military support being sent in our name is a waste of scarce resources, and it's just prolonging the bloodshed for the Ukrainians themselves. Harsh perhaps, but true.