Transparency In Published Expected Returns (By Game)

[Jasminebed]

Well, I have not yet taken my opportunity to vote, as I'd like to hear more from other members.

I've seen issues of Casino Player magazine. I've been told here on the forum that betsize does not affect theoretical rate of return here in the online world the same way the different denominations on B&M work. I admit I wonder about the new multi-denomination machines.

Quebec VLTs display 93 percent payout.

At one time, Rideau Carleton Racetrack and Slots introduced new games at an advertised 100 percent payback for the first 6 months, later dropped to 3 months and then abandonned the scheme entirely. These slots were always busy, and I never once walked away ahead from them, or even even.

A visit to the Trump Marina a few years ago had several banks of nickle slots with advertised 99 percent payback.

Sometimes what players get in bonus offers, free chips, loyalty rewards and unique tournaments can result in a Return to Player that is higher than merely the expected theoretical return of the games.

Not all of us get to play in Vegas or Atlantic City. I've heard (and believe) that the penny slots at the OLG casinos pay back less than 82 percent. I cannot find published results, but this information came from a small news item regarding a fine levied against the management company operating the one closest to my home. This is from a few years ago, when the pennies just hit the scene.

Publishing theoretical returns are just that...theoretical. I think in some cases players might be deluded that if a slot pays back 100 percent, they will win their money back, not really realizing these returns are over MILLIONS of spins.

Rival shows theoretical percentages, and I did not find them to be too deeply buried (sorry, been a while) or a really good indicator of how I would do.

Casinos that choose to publish these returns do so in the hopes that this will influence players to choose them. I can no longer choose Rival, and I can't choose Wagerworks either.

I don't get game by game breakdowns at my favourite B&M, and I don't really hold online casinos to higher standards.

So, undecided for now, but I reserve my right to vote at a later time.

 

[TOC]

No, not in a similar way to WagerWorks or Rival - it should be on the main playing screen, not tucked away at the back of some "rule" page.
Wouldn't it be fantastic if all softwares were forced to do this, then we'd really see some RTG operators squirm!

KK

I recently purchased some new boots before wading through the current thread. I'm not picking on you KK but if you're going to slam RTG remove them from your site. This is twice in the past couple days you have discussed wrong doing by RTG, this one points to RTG affiliates/casino operators, squirm. If you remove all RTG from your site then I'll respect the posts, if not you're a bag of HOT AIR! I'm an RTG operator and have NO reason to squirm. Do ya see CM pulling all his RTG promoted sites from this forum? Come on...!!!! If CM pulls his sites I'll follow suite. If not back off until you can back up what your saying. OH MY

 

[4 of a kind]

Sometimes what players get in bonus offers, free chips, loyalty rewards and unique tournaments can result in a Return to Player that is higher than merely the expected theoretical return of the games.

Casinos that choose to publish these returns do so in the hopes that this will influence players to choose them.

Exactly my point in my post earlier here except explained better. Online can't offer much more then you said above which in turn would make it hard for a site to be unique from the others. The publishing of returns by B&M's no doubt is just a marketing tool, with endless offers to win loyal customers.

If all online casinos were forced to publish returns (theoretical), would only end up making them all the same, and the only way to fight for customers could only be done by the games offered, or by better comps.

If this were done online it would only benefit us the player. Even though posted returns are theoretical, why would anyone play at a lesser one.

That's why this will never happen...


P.S. I will scan a copy of the B&M's listings later when I get home.

 

[Nifty29]

Good discussion.

Sometimes what players get in bonus offers, free chips, loyalty rewards and unique tournaments can result in a Return to Player that is higher than merely the expected theoretical return of the games.

Yes this is important, just ask KK with the figures he publishes from his bonus safaris...it can be the difference between winning and losing. However, it does not affect the actual or theoretical payout % of the machines or games themselves...this is based on the reels and paytables and jackpots (if any) on each game.

Publishing theoretical returns are just that...theoretical. I think in some cases players might be deluded that if a slot pays back 100 percent, they will win their money back, not really realizing these returns are over MILLIONS of spins.

Maybe Dogboy can answer this one as Ive never seen a definitive explanation to this question:

Over how many spins is the RTP calculated? Ive seen some say 'over the lifetime of the machine' but that seems to suggest that one year it might pay out 81% and the next year 110% and still be in the 95% range...?? Ive also heard that its based on the reel positions and how many possible combinations there are in the game...i.e. if there are 150,000 combinations and only one jackpot combination, then you can expect it to happen about once in 150,000 spins.....but could happen also at spin 299,998 and 299,999 and still be on track at spin 300,000 (hope that makes sense)

Dogboy...hellllppp!!

 

[Simmo!]

Hi All,

Even though I'd be interested in knowing the % return of each slot, it certainly wouldn't stop me from playing a slot.

I agree when a new slot is launched, it wouldn't generally affect me either, but where an existing slot had it's percentage changed, up or down, it might make a difference. Especially down as it leaves a negative impression.

Remember when Crypto changed their VP to redeal discarded cards thus lowering the returns? That stopped me playing, although if that "feature" had been present from Day 1, I probably wouldn't have cared.

 

[jetset]

Good point....and another reason why such disclosures would be in the players' interest.

 

[Mavin1]

I agree when a new slot is launched, it wouldn't generally affect me either, but where an existing slot had it's percentage changed, up or down, it might make a difference. Especially down as it leaves a negative impression.

Remember when Crypto changed their VP to redeal discarded cards thus lowering the returns? That stopped me playing, although if that "feature" had been present from Day 1, I probably wouldn't have cared.

I agree with you Simmo! If these things were in place from the start, none of us would care. But when players have been playing at a certain return level and then find it has changed to a lower or no return level it is very disheartening and IS causing players to not stay loyal or walk away and never look back.

My feeling about the RNG thing which is also voiced in this thread, is that it is probably based on a certain amount of players. For instance if the RNG of 96% is based on 200 players then you will have a very good amount having longer play times and being able to make withdrawals. BUT, now take that same RNG that is based on 96% at 200 players but now you have 200,000 people playing, then the 96% would actually drop down to something like 15%, (math is not my thing) in reality, but the 96% is still being based on the original 200, because we cannot say how many players they actually have at any given time. Sure you will still have that small group of 200 spread out in that 200,000 still winning or having good play times but the vast majority are not having the same experience when playing today as they did say 3 years ago.

So to get to my point here, I feel part of this transparency should include how many players are the RNG's based on.

 

[casinojack]

So to get to my point here, I feel part of this transparency should include how many players are the RNG's based on.

hate to say this but..

Depends.


For RTG, is based on 1,000,0000.

 

[4 of a kind]

 

[4 of a kind]

The above post is only one page of five from Casino Player magazine. This is also out of the August 09 edition. A lot of poker players visit my office and walk off with my magazines. That's the latest edition I have. If you want more info or newer edition, I should receive 1/10 in a few days.

Didn't know how to get text in above post, and am impressed I even pulled that scan off.

 

[Mavin1]

Thanks 4 of a Kind!

If land based casinos can put out reports like that then why shouldn't online ones follow suit. It only helps to make the online players to make better decisions in where and how to spend their money.
It gets old bouncing around and managing to only hit all the low % games, like trying to find your way out of a canyon blind.
A better informed player is a happy player and more likely to stick around.

 

[casinojack]

I agree with you Simmo! If these things were in place from the start, none of us would care. But when players have been playing at a certain return level and then find it has changed to a lower or no return level it is very disheartening and IS causing players to not stay loyal or walk away and never look back.

My feeling about the RNG thing which is also voiced in this thread, is that it is probably based on a certain amount of players. For instance if the RNG of 96% is based on 200 players then you will have a very good amount having longer play times and being able to make withdrawals. BUT, now take that same RNG that is based on 96% at 200 players but now you have 200,000 people playing, then the 96% would actually drop down to something like 15%, (math is not my thing) in reality, but the 96% is still being based on the original 200, because we cannot say how many players they actually have at any given time. Sure you will still have that small group of 200 spread out in that 200,000 still winning or having good play times but the vast majority are not having the same experience when playing today as they did say 3 years ago.

So to get to my point here, I feel part of this transparency should include how many players are the RNG's based on.

Thanks 4 of a Kind!

If land based casinos can put out reports like that then why shouldn't online ones follow suit. It only helps to make the online players to make better decisions in where and how to spend their money.
It gets old bouncing around and managing to only hit all the low % games, like trying to find your way out of a canyon blind.
A better informed player is a happy player and more likely to stick around.

Mavin

Just one question for you. The above is fully audit-able by a regulatory body. Even if I posted ours today, how would you know?

I am curious is all, this is a good conversation, just wondering your thoughts.

I think a personable visit would be the best. If you like, next week, add me to skype, casinojack69, and I might have an idea or 2 for you to think about.

Good luck

 

[Mavin1]

Mavin

Just one question for you. The above is fully audit-able by a regulatory body. Even if I posted ours today, how would you know?

I am curious is all, this is a good conversation, just wondering your thoughts.

I think a personable visit would be the best. If you like, next week, add me to skype, casinojack69, and I might have an idea or 2 for you to think about.

Good luck

Maybe casinos should have a stat page that is accessible through the home page or on the casinos site itself, I know many casinos have a news section, this would be a good place for stats also. I certainly wouldn't know how to go about it, but just some kind of report that is updated regularly designed not to hurt casinos but to aid the players to make better informed decisions.
4 of a Kind seems to be the one that really makes sense and has a great example of a public report that is published. If you, 4 of a Kind, Scooter, Simmo and others with the real knowledge of online gaming would get together on this, I think you all could come up with a slammin idea that would certainly put you on top above and beyond any online casinos that would refuse.
For myself, Silcnlayce, Greek, Amatrine and others that have voiced our feelings and many that didn't, we are just pleading with all of you that are in the know to please do us this favor. Our loyalty would be forever stronger towards a casino that shows beyond a shadow of doubt that you do care about the players, no matter how small we are.

Oh, and sorry not to appear I'm from the stone ages, but I have never paid any attention to skype, don't even know what it's purpose is.

 

[4 of a kind]

Oh, and sorry not to appear I'm from the stone ages, but I have never paid any attention to skype, don't even know what it's purpose is.

Skype Make free calls and great value calls on the internet
With Skype you can make free calls over the internet to other people on Skype for as long as you like, to wherever you like. It is free to download.

(google)

 

[Mavin1]

Skype Make free calls and great value calls on the internet
With Skype you can make free calls over the internet to other people on Skype for as long as you like, to wherever you like. It is free to download.

(google)

Thank you for the info, but not for me , my poor old computer can't take much more. I even sent my cell phone to the landfill (dump). My microwave is in the shed. Not a fan of to much technology

 

[DogBoy001]

Maybe Dogboy can answer this one as Ive never seen a definitive explanation to this question:

Over how many spins is the RTP calculated? Ive seen some say 'over the lifetime of the machine' but that seems to suggest that one year it might pay out 81% and the next year 110% and still be in the 95% range...?? Ive also heard that its based on the reel positions and how many possible combinations there are in the game...i.e. if there are 150,000 combinations and only one jackpot combination, then you can expect it to happen about once in 150,000 spins.....but could happen also at spin 299,998 and 299,999 and still be on track at spin 300,000 (hope that makes sense)

Dogboy...hellllppp!!

Heya,

RTP on a random spinning reel slot in its basic form is a calculation based on 1 cycle, this being the total number of possible combinations, if each possible combination spun in once only during that cycle.

An example is probably the easiest way to explain it:
Suppose you have a slot with 30 positions on each reel (for ease of calculation). The game's cycle is 30^5, so there are 24,300,000 possible combinations that could appear on a given spin.
Each combination represents a single order of stop positions on the reels. So, for example, based on 5 random requests for a result (one for each reel):
Stop position 13 (reel 1), followed by stop position 11 (reel 2), followed by stop position 18 (reel 3), followed by stop position 3 (reel 4), followed by stop position 30 (reel 5)
So there are 24.3M possible ways the 5 reels could line up.

Different symbols may appear on different reels more than once, so you could get repetition of possible prize-winning combinations, e.g.: There may be 1 combination yielding 5 substitutes (if there is 1 wild on each reel), but there may be 20,000 ways of getting 5 of a lower symbol.

So, getting back to what RTP is:
The theoretical return to player is an exact value, but only if each possible combination (24.3M in the above example) occurs once, and once only, during a cycle, in this case 24.3M spins.
Since results are random, the same order could appear more than once, hence why real results differ from theoretical.

It is possible to calculate, using normal distribution and the game's standard deviation, a range of what most (but not all) RTP results will fall into over a given period of play.
95% of the area under a normal curve lies within roughly 1.96 standard deviations of the mean, so taking a popular, but unnamed, game as an example; 95% of results should fall within +/- 8.2% of theoretical RTP over 50,000 spins. Move that out to 250,000 spins and 95% of results should be within +/- 3.7%.
Over a shorter period of play results skew wildly. At 90% confidence (1.645 SD), this same game would have +/- 49.15%...so 90% of sets of 1000 spins should fall into a band from an RTP of 46.05% to 144.35%

However, even then, some results will fall outside an expected range, on either side of the scale

Features tend to increase volatility, which all affects expected RTP ranges over given periods of play.
Variables such as pick feature probability schedules still yield a prize range and an associated probability, so everything can still be built into a standard deviation prize table for calculation.
And as far as RTP goes for these, again it's just a certain number of trigger combinations will, according to a pick probability schedule, yield a certain prize.
Features that don't have pick schedules attached are simply another reel strip combinational calculation, with overall average return from the feature simply multiplied by the odds of triggering, or in the case of a retrigger feature that overall odds of being a feature game.

The important items to remember are:
1) RTP is a theoretical calculation based on a complete cycle without repetition
2) Random systems do not have any correlation between spins, so it is possible to achieve exactly the same combination on successive spins.
3) There will be massive swings away from expected RTP (on both a positive and negative end), especially over smaller periods of play
4) In relation to periods of play, 1000 spins on a slot on a given day isn't small to the player, 5000 is huge...but both are small statistically speaking

That's the beauty of randomness, but it can also bite.

Woooof

 

[Nifty29]

Thanks heaps Poochman!!

The important items to remember are:
1) RTP is a theoretical calculation based on a complete cycle without repetition
2) Random systems do not have any correlation between spins, so it is possible to achieve exactly the same combination on successive spins.
3) There will be massive swings away from expected RTP (on both a positive and negative end), especially over smaller periods of play
4) In relation to periods of play, 1000 spins on a slot on a given day isn't small to the player, 5000 is huge...but both are small statistically speaking

I would encourage every player to read the points above as they do explain a lot of complaints that they post about terrible returns etc especially in one session.

 

[jetset]

Mavin

Just one question for you. The above is fully audit-able by a regulatory body. Even if I posted ours today, how would you know?

I am curious is all, this is a good conversation, just wondering your thoughts.

I think a personable visit would be the best. If you like, next week, add me to skype, casinojack69, and I might have an idea or 2 for you to think about.

Good luck

Another valid aspect worthy of discussion - would players be satisfied with the casinos' say-so? How could the casinos add visible credibility to the ERs claimed on their games?

I know in the past there have been those who have questioned and even derided audited percentage payouts from recognised international companies like PwC, KPMG etc., claiming that if the auditor was paid by the casino it is not unbiased and independent.

 

[Scooter7]

The important items to remember are:
1) RTP is a theoretical calculation based on a complete cycle without repetition
2) Random systems do not have any correlation between spins, so it is possible to achieve exactly the same combination on successive spins.
3) There will be massive swings away from expected RTP (on both a positive and negative end), especially over smaller periods of play
4) In relation to periods of play, 1000 spins on a slot on a given day isn't small to the player, 5000 is huge...but both are small statistically speaking

That's the beauty of randomness, but it can also bite.

Woooof

(bold added to DogBoy's quote)

This is exactly why I (usually) do a quiet, slow burn when people constantly post about this or that software must be cheating because they lost their whole deposit on a few hundred spins that provided a lousy return. These people are victims of a couple of things:

1) Selective Memory

I can't count the number of times I've seen a player at a Blackjack table yell at someone for standing on 16 against a face card because the next card was a 5; "It was YOUR fault that we lost that hand!!" is a common sentiment. The problem though is that the rude MF in seat 1 has erased from his mind the hand 3 minutes ago where the mathematical moron in the anchor seat did the EXACT SAME THING and 'made everyone' win a hand that they would have lost. The slot players online generally suffer from the same malaise; forgetting quickly when they only had a couple hundred spins and hit a big symbol combination or a jackpot for an RTP in the 1000+% range.


2) Lack of Regulation

People love rules, regulations, and government involvement when it comes to financial transactions. They're not too thrilled about government bailouts these days, but that's another story What people do want from their governments (even me, a guy who leans towards anarchist ), are regulations to protect their bank accounts. Isn't a casino account akin to a bank account? How many people would be filling this board with "Casino X stole my money" threads if online casinos had government regulation? Instead, they'd be complaining that their leaders were spending all the tax money from online gaming on the wrong programs


Thanks again to DogBoy for a well-written explanation of the basic math behind the slot reels. I'm too far removed from my university statistics courses to be able to DO the math, but I remember the CONCEPTS; the post made perfect sense. For people who haven't studied this before, you've been given a very easy to follow introduction to the subject.

 

[KasinoKing]

Would be pretty hard to do at the game lobby level, but on the site we, as operators could this much easier then getting RTG involved. The lobby programming is much more time consuming. Maybe walk before we run ?

I never said anything about putting it in the lobby...
I said on the playing screen, to clarify what I mean, like this:-

Old Attachment (Invalid)

I recently purchased some new boots before wading through the current thread. I'm not picking on you KK but if you're going to slam RTG remove them from your site. This is twice in the past couple days you have discussed wrong doing by RTG, this one points to RTG affiliates/casino operators, squirm. If you remove all RTG from your site then I'll respect the posts, if not you're a bag of HOT AIR! I'm an RTG operator and have NO reason to squirm. Do ya see CM pulling all his RTG promoted sites from this forum? Come on...!!!! If CM pulls his sites I'll follow suite. If not back off until you can back up what your saying. OH MY

I am not "Slamming RTG" as a whole - I think their software is very good!
If I knew what each casino had their slots RTP set to then I would state it on my sites and maybe I would remove the lower paying ones, but since it is a huge secret I just do not have the information on which to make that decision.

It's the same with casino bonuses; on my site I list them in order from best to worst value, a) to guide players to the more generous sites, and b) to try to shame the less generous casinos to get more competitive.
This certainly works with Rival casinos; the more generous ones get loads of players, while the one with stupid phantom bonuses or crazy high WR get none. I give that information to players so they can make their own choice.
I my ideal world, the casinos would do the same.

KK

 

[casinojack]

I never said anything about putting it in the lobby...
I said on the playing screen, to clarify what I mean, like this:-

Old Attachment (Invalid)


KK

Yeah in that case would be an RTG thing. Operators cannot control this.

 

[Mavin1]

Quote:
Originally Posted by casinojack
I have not danced around any of your questions, but if I had not made something clear let me know.

I thought I was helping you reach your goal, but now you saying I deceived you?

What is unfair if the slot is set at 91% or 95% ???

Because now I feeling by reading the comment you made below, that for the $25 player we will get the 91% and the $100 player will get the 95% or higher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by casinojack
next time you do, Pm me you top 3 games you like and I will make sure they set to the highest setting...

Statement made in the Playfair thread.



This is the comment you made that totally solidifies mine and others suspicions towards casinos that rng's are being manipulated in the favor of the casinos and hand picked players.

If you are offering to adjust the RNG for a player on this forum, (probably because you feel safe in making this comment), but then this says you can do it at a whim for whom ever you choose to grace with a good win to get some promotional mileage out of it on this forum and where ever else.
So let's stop the double speak and be upfront.

Players want honest casinos and reps to deal with, thus honest transparency!

KasinoKing, again I commend you for going the extra mile as well and showing an excellent example of how RNG's can be posted on a game itself. Thank you.

 

[Wildfire7]

I never said anything about putting it in the lobby...
I said on the playing screen, to clarify what I mean, like this:-

Old Attachment (Invalid)


KK

A very simple idea to implement you would have thought. KK - Would this be a static RTP or a live ticker RTP that continually updates during play?

Surely either of these methods are not beyond the scope of mankinds knowledge?!

Mike

 

[KasinoKing]

Yeah in that case would be an RTG thing. Operators cannot control this.

Exactly!
I think that's what everyone here wants; to see RTG (and all other softwares too) incorporate this into their software so it gets displayed on ALL games in ALL casinos.
Here in the UK it is the law that gaming machines have the RTP clearly stated on them - I don't see why online should be any different...

A very simple idea to implement you would have thought. KK - Would this be a static RTP or a live ticker RTP that continually updates during play?

I think you're maybe looking at this the wrong way;
I'm not saying it should display the return each player is getting individually as they play, but the actual RTP of the machine. This is a fixed value which stays the same, unless the casino (or software provider) updates it.

KK

 

[gloria460]

This question has been in the back of my mind. In a land based casino you're going to have a multitude of people playing one given slot over time and can quickly get to the 23mil combination for the given payout of that slot over it's life time but what I would like to know is how is this obtained on an online casino?

Since this is a downloaded version do the reels only count towards your spinning or everyone who plays that slot in the online casino? If a casino has 10 to 20k people signed up does the game count only the player that downloaded or the group that's playing?

Very interesting discussion!