Probabilities

[Zoozie]

I have improved program to also calculate the variance of the slot. However it does matter how many lines you play. So in order compare Thunderstruck(9 lines) with Loaded (25 lines), I have run the variance simulation for Loaded when playing only 9 lines. This way the variance between the slots can be compared. Here are the variance results. I have included the payout% result found earlier for the slots.

TallyHo:
Payout%=96.0%+-0.1%(95.9%-96.1%) Can be found more accurate if needed
Average feature win(in bet size):31.8
Variance(9-line):1070+-10


ThunderStruck:
Payout%=95.02%+-0.01% (95.01%-95.03%)
Average feature win(in bet size)35.3
Variance(9-line):1145+-10

Loaded:
Payout%=93.7%+-0.1% (93.6%-93.8%) Can be found more accurate if needed
Average feature win(in bet size):31.6
Variance(9-line):1290+-10
Variance(25-line):4332 +-5 (simulation ran for 7 hours)


Video Poker JoB(1-line) has variance 19.5 and JoB (50-line) has variance 116.

The simulation need to run much longer(hours) to get the variance correct compared to payout%. Convergence is much slower.

Simulation program and source code included. Unzip to new folder and
click the wanted simulation.

Edit: Variance is a measure how of 'spread out' the distribution is. Blackjack has
very low variance, even after playing for a long time, you often end up close
to your starting point. For slots it is more likely you will loose a good amount
or end up with a good win. The higher variance, the more likely you
ending point will be far from your starting point.





Zoozie

 

[KasinoKing]

I have improved program to also calculate the variance of the slot. However it does matter how many lines you play. So in order compare Thunderstruck(9 lines) with Loaded (25 lines), I have run the variance simulation for Loaded when playing only 9 lines. This way the variance between the slots can be compared. Here are the variance results. I have included the payout% result found earlier for the slots.

For the benefit of us thickies - can you explain what your 'Variance' figures mean in plain English?

Thanks! :notworthy

 

[Zoozie]

I managed to find the excact payout of ThunderStruck. Earlier I found the 'base payout%' (Pb) if there was no freespins(~70.2%). This was done simply by iterating through all possible spins once. However I was not able to estimate the value of the freespins. The freespin feature is basically just 1 added win to getting the scatters.

The problem was I was not able to calculate the average number of free spins because of retriggers, but I can do that now. If the number of freespins is n and the probability for a feature is p, then the average number of freespins turns out to be n * (1/(1-np)), it took some heavy math to get to this. I case of Thunderstruck this is actually 16.7758...
In case of getting 4 rolls with a dice and getting a six will give you 4 more rolls and so on , then the average number of rolls is 12 using this formular.


The formular for 'real payout%' can then be shown to be:

Pr= payout% real
Pb=payout% base
n=number of freespins (retrigger allowed)
m=free spin multiplier.
f=chance of getting a feature ( 3 or more scatters)

Pr=Pb*(1+f*m*n(1/(1-np)))

For Thunderstruck the values(excact!) are:

Pb=25043928/35640000(~0.702691682...)
n=15
m=3
f=249966/35640000 (~0.00701363.....)

Which gives:
Pr=0.9507267..... (it can be written as an excact fraction if needed)
So thunderstruck has payout%=95.07267....%

The 8 hour brute-force simulation gave Pr=95.02% . And the above result is actually
close to this! (scary, eh?)

In case of 'Loaded' etc where the is no retriggers, then the n(1/(1-np) is simply just replaced by n.

The program takes about 3 minutes to analyze a slot this way, and I might post the program it later with improved output.

And curse Slotmachine for starthing this thread and making me do all this


Zoozie

 

[Zoozie]

Ups. I an called 'f' for 'p' in one of the places. The correct is here:

The formular for 'real payout%' can then be shown to be:
Pr= payout% real
Pb=payout% base
n=number of freespins (retrigger allowed)
m=free spin multiplier.
f=chance of getting a feature ( 3 or more scatters)

Pr=Pb*(1+f*m*n(1/(1-nf)))

Formular just add the expected (excact) win whenever a feature is hit.
(using the correct number of freespins due to retriggers. Every spin has value
equal to the base payout%).

 

[Zoozie]

Very tiny correction (not that it really matters). In the above 'excact' value
of payout% for ThunderStruck. I only used 6 digits for each number and this
made the final result a bit off, though the formular was used correct.(I should have known better than this... shame on Zoozie *BLUSH*). Actually this took the result even closer to the 8 hours brute force simulation

Now I have added the calculation to the program and it uses the full 17 digits accuracy of the numbers now. Here are the updated EXCACT(12 digits..) payout% of the slots we have analyzed. In future version I might even add the result as a fraction for 100% completeness. Since I have made so much of the simulation allready I am thinking of just adding some GUI and make the simulation in applet where you can design your own paytables/symbols/reels and then calculate the payout%. I am so close to it anyway.
Not that it would have much practical use except for casino slot designers or extreme slot nerds.

Here are the fresh and most accurate results(probably 12 digits correct) so far:
(still this assumes we got the reels correct)

Thunderstruck:
Seconds running:140.3
Number of iterations:35640000
Total paid:35640000
Total added wins:25043928
Number of feature starts:249966
Base payback(no free spins):0.7026915824915825
Probability for getting a feature each spin:0.007013636363636363
Average number of spins each feature with retriggers (calculated):16.763607731579082
Average number of win each feature(in bet size):35.33893813551429
Total payout (excact!)= 0.9505460440511214
---------------------
Loaded:
Seconds running:182.3
Number of iterations:50769180
Total paid:50769180
Total added wins:33431090
Number of feature starts:446580
Base payback(no free spins):0.6584918251584918
Probability for getting a feature each spin:0.008796281523554252
Average number of spins each feature with retriggers (calculated):24.0
Average number of win each feature(in bet size):31.607607607607605
Total payout (excact!)= 0.9365212399610434
--------------------
TallyHo:
Seconds running:128.8
Number of iterations:35640000
Total paid:35640000
Total added wins:26287245
Number of feature starts:249966
Base payback(no free spins):0.7375770202020202
Probability for getting a feature each spin:0.007013636363636363
Average number of spins each feature with retriggers (calculated):10.754265043750307
Average number of win each feature(in bet size):31.7283950617284
Total payout (excact!)= 0.960108445566779

Zoozie

 

[feif]

I have just made a short movie of Thunderstruck in fun mode and I believe the spins contain the genuine reel bands!!
My camera isn't up to the full task. I believe my new DVD Digital video camera (thanks All Slots!), will be up to the job. I will need to be able to play the movie frame by frame and note the partial bands as the loop. While the whole band does not show, each string is considerably longer than 3 symbols under the current spin and take notes methodology, and should make the task a good deal easier.

Hi,
not sure whether it matters, I use a tool called Hypercam (www.google.com) to create Screenshots and Screenshot movies . Saves all spins or any motion on screen as AVI/MPG movie including chats with support folks or whatever
Cheers
Feif

 

[wizard]

Bravo

Very impressive work Zoozie.

May I quote it on my web site? If you are agreeable please contact me through my web site (Old / Expired Link. I'll keep an eye out for your message.

 

[Simmo!]

Very impressive work Zoozie.

May I quote it on my web site? If you are agreeable please contact me through my web site (Old / Expired Link. I'll keep an eye out for your message.

 

[Zoozie]

The real wizard???

I am honoured then.:notworthy

Zoozie

 

[jetset]

Respect, Zoozie!

Very impressive work Zoozie.

May I quote it on my web site? If you are agreeable please contact me through my web site (Old / Expired Link. I'll keep an eye out for your message.

Whoa, that's real respect coming from the Wizard, Zoozie - good one!

 

[steinhaug]

TallyHo:
Payout%=96.0%+-0.1%(95.9%-96.1%) Can be found more accurate if needed
Average feature win(in bet size):31.8
Variance(9-line):1070+-10


ThunderStruck:
Payout%=95.02%+-0.01% (95.01%-95.03%)
Average feature win(in bet size)35.3
Variance(9-line):1145+-10

Loaded:
Payout%=93.7%+-0.1% (93.6%-93.8%) Can be found more accurate if needed
Average feature win(in bet size):31.6
Variance(9-line):1290+-10
Variance(25-line):4332 +-5 (simulation ran for 7 hours)

First of all, great work!

Theese stats really are depressing to look at, especially when you look at the average feature win. What the feature win tells me, is what I already much knew concerning own experience, is that doin more than 30 spins is pointless - since it means you will be loosing!

Your crunching points in the same direction, do 30 spins and if you win - good, if not stop!

Another post in another thread noted that the feature win could easily be multiplied with a 100 and the payout wouldnt be affected to much for the casino - but then again you would accually win money and probably cash out happily. With theese payouts you never accually win anything and keep spinning...

You said it yourself somewhere Zoozie, theese stats are depressing! (Which ironicaly - is a good thing!)

 

[Zoozie]

First of all, great work!
Another post in another thread noted that the feature win could easily be multiplied with a 100 and the payout wouldnt be affected to much for the casino - but then again you would accually win money and probably cash out happily. With theese payouts you never accually win anything and keep spinning...

This is not correct. It was the 5-wilds pay that could be increased a lot.
If it was increased 100 times on Thunderstruck(so 1M for 5 thors) the payout would
be 99%-100%(cant remember excact, but it was in this range).
They payout% is VERY sensitive to the average feature wins.
If #free spins on Thunderstruck was increased to 18, the payout% would be near 100% also.

 

[steinhaug]

This is not correct. It was the 5-wilds pay that could be increased a lot.
If it was increased 100 times on Thunderstruck(so 1M for 5 thors) the payout would
be 99%-100%(cant remember excact, but it was in this range).
They payout% is VERY sensitive to the average feature wins.
If #free spins on Thunderstruck was increased to 18, the payout% would be near 100% also.

Thanks for correcting this. But wouldn't it be easy to tweak the system, so that feature wins appeared not that often - but instead had a better payout. I think that the average payout of ~30x is not good at all for a freespin, and all in all it doesnt add to much to your win since many times you spin more than 30 spins to accually get it. Sure you win on the other 30 spins aswell, but I think you get my drift.

If the freespins feature, atleast was added sure wins, and say the x30 payout was a more like x100. I would guess that this machine would only be more popular since :

1. When you get the bonus, you can safely add a nice smile to your face, since you know you are in for a treat.
2. When you know that you do win some, the machine only becomes more fun to play.

Question :
To me it seems that the payout is tweaked on a very low payout, just to be sure that you don't win to much. (Landbased slots does give better payouts in bonus feature, thats my personal opinion). Would you agree?

Question :
Have you by the way done a simulation on Ho Ho Ho, Elementals/Cabin fever, Mermaids millions. I find theese slots terrible in the freespins feature. Sure, Mermaids are abit different with an extra bonus feature - but the freespins are usually worthless.

Question :
Are your simulations based on a perfect world, meaning that the MG system is not biased in any way, meaning that your simulation are based on that the wheels are infact going completely random as they should do?

The reason I ask this is that I remember What a hoot, in a nice streak of winning there, in 4 spins I had 3 of them with the exact setup of the wheels. And in a random system that should not work. (Just as on 1 payline machines, the jacpot often lands on line 1 and line 3, quite often infact.) It seems you have studied this and the math behind it far more than I have so i might aswell ask for your opinion,

 

[steinhaug]

Here is another tactics question I would love some other brains to digest :

Taking for granted that the freespins occure at random, and that we mathematically can calculate the odds of this happening and such. Take into the mix the chance of the wheels lining up for a good win, 4 symbols or say 5 symbols of the same - this would on any game give a good pay.

What are the chance of such a win appearing together with the freespins feature?

The reason I ask is this :
If you get the freespins feature in say Thunderstuck. Instead of starting, you can quit the game and disconnect. You could relogon tomorrow, and start the freespins then. Sure - does MG then start at another cycle with the freespins, or do you continue where you left last day? Alot of people has played in the meantime meaning that the odds are changed.

My question is therefore, would I have a better chance of winning by quitting the game and do the freespins tomorrow, than doing them at once?

 

[Zoozie]

If the freespins feature, atleast was added sure wins, and say the x30 payout was a more like x100. I would guess that this machine would only be more popular

I tend to agree, but I think the casinos dont want this. Then more people will get away with soe money, since they cannot loose a good feature win in the next 20 minutes like it is now.

Have you by the way done a simulation on Ho Ho Ho, Elementals/Cabin fever, Mermaids millions. I find theese slots terrible in the freespins feature. Sure, Mermaids are abit different with an extra bonus feature - but the freespins are usually worthless.

I need someone to 'crack' the reels. It took 10+ hours for me to do this for Loaded, if you do them, I will make a simulation for them

Here is another tactics question I would love some other brains to digest :
My question is therefore, would I have a better chance of winning by quitting the game and do the freespins tomorrow, than doing them at once?

What only matters is what time you decide to press the start button. If you
wait 1 second it will be totally different.(same for single spin slots in vegas actually) And during the free-spins, the speed of you computer combined with network traffic influence on the rest of the spins in the free spins mode. (this is MG casinos where the RNG generate each spin, there are some rumours that RTG actually sends all 15 spins at once).

Btw, the famous wizard that posted in this thread has a great webpage where
he has answered similar questions for years. Go check it

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

Zoozie

 

[42ndSSD]

I tend to agree, but I think the casinos dont want this. Then more people will get away with soe money, since they cannot loose a good feature win in the next 20 minutes like it is now.

Perhaps more importantly, they get enough players as things are now. Knowledgeable gamblers are not likely to start playing slots just because they have a 99% payout. Most habitual slot players wouldn't understand or care. There's no obvious benefit to the casino, so why change it?

The problem with slots isn't so much the overall long-term return (though that doesn't help) but that too much of the return is from low probability events. And we all know those events have a habit of not showing up quite as often as we'd like... it take a lot of spins to get to the "expected return," and the average player will be below it most of the time. Profitable for the casino, but a real money loser for the player.

 

[steinhaug]

I need someone to 'crack' the reels. It took 10+ hours for me to do this for Loaded, if you do them, I will make a simulation for them

Well I'm cracking HoHoHo for you as we speek, the game-reels are pretty straight forward cracking. You need max an hour cracking each. Ill send you the reels for HOHOHO as soon as Im ready on PM.

 

[Zoozie]

Any luck cracking 'Ho Ho Ho' yet?

I have generalized the 'slot equation'. There are now a new brand of slots that change the reels during free spins (Kathmandu, Moonshine, Avalon). ( 1 symbol becomes wild or scatter)

These can also be analyzed EXCACT also by using the equation and the
program to iterate though all combination for finding the payout%.


This is for a 5 reel slot where the paytable change during free spins and
retriggers are allowed.

The Slot Equation:

Pr= payout% effective
Pb=payout% base when not in free spin mode (need the program to find this)
Pf=payout% during feature (need the program to find this)
n=number of freespins
m=free spin multiplier.
f=chance of getting a feature ( 3 or more scatters normally) on the base paytable

Pr=Pb+m*n*Pf*f*(1/(1-nf))

In case Pb=Pf (those earlier analyzed) this becomes the former equation
Pr=Pb *(1+m*n*f*(1/(1-nf)))

In case there is no re-triggers allowed then (1/(1-nf)) is just replace by 1 as before.

Work on making a GUI for the analyzer has been a little slow, but I a still working on it.
Zoozie

 

[Simmo!]

LOL. I trust you Zoozie. But i gotta ask...did anyone else understand that?

 

[Zoozie]

Work on making a GUI for the analyzer has been a little slow, but I a still working on it.

Finally I had some more free time, so I put a simply GUI around the slot-simulator/analyzer program. I call this Version 0.1, but it is fully functional for analyzing payout%. I have not added a 'Delete Symbol' button and a help text yet though.

Also I want it to do some of the other stuff that the core program is capable of.(life time simulation,finding highest pay combination dependant on number of lines, hyperspeed autospin simulation)

You can load "Thunderstruck" data and change reel/symbol pays/number of freespins and much more and what impact it has the payout%. I will not have time to make any progress on this for some time.

To 'install' the program just unzip all the files. (It will create a new folder) and
press the Start_SlotSimulator.bat file. No virus/adware/regedit entries.. It is pure Java. Delete the folder again and it is gone.

Zoozie

 

[SlotsWizard]

Harveys Analysis - Help with Paylines

I have been analyzing the Harveys slot for the past few nights. You can find an attachment at the bottom of what I believe to be the painstakingly accurate reel layouts.

The scatters and bonus symbols are very easy to calculate the probability of, because you can do so without regard to where they land.

But when it comes to the actual paylines (25 in this case), what is the proper method for calculating the odds? There must be some sort of special consideration for the various different paylines, correct? Do you calculate the odds for a single payline and just use that, or do you multiply that result by 25, or something entirely different?

I had written a program to iterate through all 58.1 million combinations of reel stops and store the winning payouts in a database, but that was taking too long to run and I would prefer to do it mathematically anyway.

Can anyone here help?

A note about the attachment: there is a symbol that looks like it could either be 2 lobsters, 2 shrimp, 2 popsicles, or some other type of dessert. It is this symbol that I have labeled as "Mystery Food".

 

[brianzz]

Those are lobster tails, lobster tails, with no butter. See the little feet and the tail curled up beside them and the antenna sticking out of what used to be the head.

When I tested real video slots at real casinos to determine the payouts using PAR sheets I used the 5 symbols that appeared across the reels, thats how IGT programmed the games, using that and having the par sheets allowed me to determine a machines return within 5 or 10 plays of the game playing just 1 line.

Just from my experience from testing video slots, the ~ symbols, or blanks, are where the "reel strip" would begin, ie shorter reel strips on certain reels.

I'm not sure what you're meaning by the payline layout, it's really insignifigant if the reels are not weighted. All the paylines return about the same amount in all multi-payline games with the exception of a game with a progressive that pays only on a certain payline or paylines, ie Wheel Of Fortune Video Slots, and the return on that line is increased by 1% which is the games contribution to the progressive, 1% of each bet.

If you're just trying to figure out the probability of a winning combination hitting on a specific line or number of lines you just do the math. I'm at work and keep getting interupted so I can't give you the exact numbers this moment but on most 5 reel games is somewhere in the neighborhood of the top jackpot paying out ON AVERAGE every 2.5 or so million plays no matter which line it lands on. So theoretically you could hit the jackpot 25 times in a row on a 25 line video slot. This isn't really unheard of, I've seen a 3 reel machine hit the top jackpot of 10,000 coins on 2 spins in a row.

In the world of slot machines you're always cheating yourself by not playing max paylines, the coins really don't matter because if a machine "accidently" overpays what it was supposed to, ie the machine pays more than the coin in total, it'll always tighten up and get it back later. Again at land based casinos it's not out of the oridinary to have a video slot to return 250 to 300% of the coin in for a month or two and then for the next 3 to 4 months it'll return 80% or less to get back in check, this usually happens on very volitale games.

I'm sure internet slots are alot different than those in the land based casinos, to be sure of all the speculation someone would have to get with a programmer and talk to them for awhile and maybe get some PAR sheets for a few of the games.

When you're trying to figure out the probabilities you really need to consider how many symbols per reel there really are in the RNG, usually on the reel strip the number of symbols is multiplied 2X or 3X in the RNG to make it really random and harder to win. The newer IGT 3 reel machines have 128 stops per reel which makes the odds of a top jackpot astronomical, 1:2 million spins.

 

[KasinoKing]

I have been analyzing the Harveys slot for the past few nights. You can find an attachment at the bottom of what I believe to be the painstakingly accurate reel layouts.

Excellent!

 

[Zoozie]

I have been analyzing the Harveys slot for the past few nights. You can find an attachment at the bottom of what I believe to be the painstakingly accurate reel layouts.

But when it comes to the actual paylines (25 in this case), what is the proper method for calculating the odds?
I had written a program to iterate through all 58.1 million combinations of reel stops and store the winning payouts in a database, but that was taking too long to run and I would prefer to do it mathematically anyway.

Good work on Harveys. When it is possible to play Harveys ín the flash client, I have a way to help you check if you got the reels correct.

It does not matter how many lines you play, the payout% is the same. In my program I just play 1 line when analyzing payout% to speed up the process. It is pretty simple to understand why it does not matter. When iterating over all combinations with 1 line, you will hit every combination once. If you play 2 lines, you will hit all combinations twice. But this will 'cost' you twice as much, but the wins are also double compared to 1 line. So this gives the same. Besides this simple explanation my programs shows excacly the same.

Actually only the number of times each symbols occours on each reels is important. Changing the order does not change the payout%. It does change the maximum win combination that my slot also can find though.

This only gives what I call the basepayout%. If you want to take the free spins into account, you have to use the formular I have written earlier in this thread. And in the case of Harveys, this is a problem since there is a random weight factor that each win are multiplied with during the freespins. Since we dont know this, we can not find the payout%. If we know what the feature would pay on average (in bet size) we could calculate the payout%.

It could be interesting just try find the free spin multier (on average). Since these slots have payout in the 95-96% range, we could work backwards and find the free spin multiplier.

I made some small improvements to the GUI of my slot simulator. (TallyHo and Loaded included also) I will post it again later with your the Harvey reels.

To find the payout% as you tried, the ONLY way is to iterate through all combinations and adding together all the wins. But when same symbols occours more times on the same reel, it is possible to make some SMALL performance improvements, but it is not worth it. (Same principle as Video poker analyzer programs, where this gives a gigantic improvement). It only takes 2 minutes to analyze a slot with 5 million combinations (Loaded) allready.

This is what my program does besides taking the free spins into account also.


Zoozie

 

[BlackjackInfo]

In the world of slot machines you're always cheating yourself by not playing max paylines, the coins really don't matter because if a machine "accidently" overpays what it was supposed to, ie the machine pays more than the coin in total, it'll always tighten up and get it back later. Again at land based casinos it's not out of the oridinary to have a video slot to return 250 to 300% of the coin in for a month or two and then for the next 3 to 4 months it'll return 80% or less to get back in check, this usually happens on very volitale games.

Amid an otherwise interesting post, this part is utter nonsense, and I expect you know better yourself. This is akin to saying that coin flips will trend toward heads if you've seen a propensity of tails over the last month or two.

 

[brianzz]

Programmed random? NOT

What is non-sense about it? I hate you tell you but it's called a random number generator for lack of a better name. How can it be random if it's programmed? Has nothing to do with coins. It's programmed to win a majority of the time for the casino but in short terms some RNGs win for the player more than was played in the machine. It's a proven fact, I've seen data sheets from machines that do it with my own eyes. This might not happen at online casinos because most slot machines have returns set so low that something like this will never happen. At real casinos where players expect competition casinos have to put machines on the floor that have a hold of 1% or 2%, online casinos don't have to worry about this because they know other players can't walk up and watch you play this machine so they can get away with machines that hold 20% 30% 40%, they don't have to answer to anyone so they can practically do what they want.

Online casinos can throw those PWC reports up every month but I'm not impressed by that, in fact it proves nothing to me with the exception of adding bounses and progressive wins can balance the books. Now if a casino wants to publish a monthly report represents depostied monies - bonuses given by the casino = actual coin in + wins to the player - progressive jackpot wins = actual return of the machine. Awhile back I noticed the PWC reports showed a small spike in "returns" when several casinos were offering buy $50 get $200 free and a little less spike when they offered "play an hour on us" for a deposit bonus.

 

[BlackjackInfo]

Perhaps I wasn't clear in what I was contesting in your post...
Yes, games sometimes pay unusually high amounts. In your example, a month where the aggregate was 250%. That's randomness for you.

What I disagree with is that the machine will subsequently "tighten up and get it back later". Unless the casino management changes the game to be tighter, the game's not going to change it's expected hold. If the game is set for an average return of 97% and one month it has a 200% payout instead, the next month's AVERAGE return is still the same 97%. Of course, in reality it may pay out 90% or 200% or 500%. The more play the game gets, the more likely the result will be near the expected 97%.

Steering this thread ever further from the original topic, I'll point out an interesting irony that results from this fact. Many Microgaming casinos publish the payout percentages from PWC. If we assume that all Microgaming slot payouts are set the same (I don't know if that's true or not, but it seems likely), then we're virtually guaranteed to find the highest PWC-audited payout percentage at the less popular casinos.

Why? The popular casinos get enough play that their game payout percentage should be near the theoretical hold, while the casinos with fewer players stand a better chance of bucking the odds and posting a big payout number.

 

[Zoozie]

Here is the newest version of the slot analyzer program and it is now fully functional.
The GUI is still butt-ugly because I am not a GUI programmer.

It comes with the following slots: Tally Ho, Thunderstruck and Loaded.
But you can always define you own from scratch.

And it has 3 functions:
1) Analyze payout% excact
2) find maximum win combination for a given slot/number of lines played
3) Full simulation. (Do a few million autospins, and see how much you lost, or maximum bankroll and when it happened etc.)

In next version it will be able to simulate Harveys. I need to change the core program so it can handle the left to right 'scatters' which is a new type of symbols. But it will be at least 2 weeks before this is ready. I also want to add a few more functions.

Then I will probably declare it finished.

Please report any input/feedback/bugs before the final release. I just need 1 or 2 people to give it a small test.

Unzip all files (it creates a new folder). No virus/adware/registry entries. Pure Java!

Zoozie

 

[tiger2006]

Great work.

Can you do the same with the Moonshine Slot?

LG tiger2006

 

[Awai]

Hi,
not sure whether it matters, I use a tool called Hypercam (www.google.com) to create Screenshots and Screenshot movies . Saves all spins or any motion on screen as AVI/MPG movie including chats with support folks or whatever
Cheers
Feif

very interesting topic guys...i've just run a test using screen cap software on my editsuite (i run a multimedia company) and am able to frame accurately scan the reels - i did the test with Thor but in theory it should work with an online slot which doesnt "mask" the spin with cartoony fx. i'll check the layout i create tomorrow against a 50 spin play test - if the results are of interest or use i'll post them here.

in theory if it works it'll cut down the play time for "cracking" the reel sequence to about 20mins...

Awai.

 

[Zoozie]

Okie, here is an update.

I improved the program to handle 'left to right' scatters since another member had found the reels on 'Harveys'. The program did work, however it was useless since there are two unknowns in 'Harveys'.

1) The number of free spins won
2) The multiplier.

To simulate 'Harvery' I needed the average of these two. (actually I only need the product of these two). However the number has very high influence on the payout and even small changes can make the payout% jump 5%. But I found out that this number was much lower than I had expected. So if you feel you win 6 or 10 free spins all the time and the multiplier is rarely higher than *2 or *4, then it is by design!

Next, about Moonshine.
I do not think Moonshine has the same problem. Can anyone confirm the
number of different squares in the bonus picking game always is the same?
Ie.
2 stop
4 multiplier +1
9 freespin +1

If the picking game is fair I can find the average by mathematics.
But I need someone to find the reels of Moonshine first.

Many of the new slots have new features and it would take me too long to
implement them all, and the simulator was just intended to pry out the mechanics of MG slots.

Still the reels of 'Isis' is #1 on my wish list. The program only needs a very small change (20,25,30 freespins won) instead of always the same number.
And 'Isis' is also one of the few slots I ever play.

Zoozie

 

[tiger2006]

@Zoozie

Here is a good site to see information about moonshine and other slots
Old / Expired Link

or Old / Expired Link

LG tiger2006

 

[Zoozie]

@Zoozie

Here is a good site to see information about moonshine and other slots
Old / Expired Link

or Old / Expired Link

LG tiger2006

Thanks, but it is really no use. It is just the paytable.
I need the reels. (or actually just how many times each symbols occour on each reel)

 

[MrVan]

Thanks, but it is really no use.

Not true.... the mystery food is crayfish

 

[tiger2006]

What about your project now?
Can you do the same with the RTG Series Real Slots?

LG tiger2006

 

[Zoozie]

What about your project now?
Can you do the same with the RTG Series Real Slots?

LG tiger2006

A few people have complained the program was a little hard to use, and this is probably right since the 'help' section was never written. Maybe I should do that and release it again. And also explain what the different numbers in the output means and how to read them.

The RTG slots can be analysed right away if they are standard free-spin/multiplier. But it can take hours to find the reels, but you are welcome. Before you start, you better post what slot you are cracking the reels for, because then I can check it is one of those the program can handle as it is now. RTG slots are not that hard to find the reels for as you can often see a sequence of 5 symbols at a time. (one above and below the reels if you are fast). Solving the puzzle from fragments this big is easy.



Zoozie

 

[Lord_Have_Mercy]

Zooie, wouldn't it be easier if one would capture the spins on video and play them back in slow motion and write down the patterns?

 

[Zoozie]

Zooie, wouldn't it be easier if one would capture the spins on video and play them back in slow motion and write down the patterns?

For the old MG slots the graphics are blurred, it not something moving fast.
So it does not really work here.

For the new style MG slots (Witch Doctor etc.) the symbols are actually moving and can be caught on video. The same goes for RTG slots.

 

[Lord_Have_Mercy]

You're a good man, Zooie! You are very smart. Question? Do you actually gamble online? I havent seen many Winning Screen Shots from you. But I would bet that you do pretty well if you do. You seem to have the knowledge of numbers down pack! I bet you know just went to bet $20 on that up coming spin.

 

[bridgehajen]

Interesting thread ..

Oh, memories

I did some work myself a few years back figuring out the reels in Thunderstruck. I managed to get the reels but I never really got my program to properly calculate the result like Zoozie did in this thread. I suspect that the bug was in the calculation of the free spins but I never really had the time or enthusiasm to debug it. I'm happy to see that you guys made it all the way. Also, it's nice to see that the payout is about 95% which is not too awful for a slot machine.

I had planned to analyze all of the multiline slots so I did a lot of automation; one program to press the spin button and analyze screenshots; one program to string together all the three symbol subsequence for a given reel; one program to do a thorough analysis (never quite finished this one). The result didn't really please me as it wasn't as automated as I would have liked it to be. The Java code is now hidden under three inches of dust and for all I know it's quite hideous ...

Anyway, kudos to Zoozie for his contributions to this thread. I take it that you work professionally within software development? I also take it that you must be an "educated player" with a very good understanding of strategies and expected returns ..

 

[Zoozie]

You're a good man, Zooie! You are very smart. Question? Do you actually gamble online? I havent seen many Winning Screen Shots from you.

I do gamble online a lot - mostly playing Video-poker and NL cash-games.

I only play slots if I get a bonus since I feel the 5% house egde is not really worth the entertainment though it is fun. But since Big Dollar casino opened I play a lot more slots since they give 100% bonuses every week. If online slots with payout >98% existed, then I might play slots without bonuses for entertainment. I also only play 5-reel slots since 3-reel slots do not excite me at all.

I have posted a lot of screenshots. I just only post a screenshot from slots if it is something really special. 5 scatters/wilds of 1000+ bet-size wins. Recently I also posted a pat RF from 10-line VP.

Oh, memories I managed to get the reels but I never really got my program to properly calculate the result like Zoozie did in this thread. I suspect that the bug was in the calculation of the free spins but I never really had the time or enthusiasm to debug it.

Anyway, kudos to Zoozie for his contributions to this thread. I take it that you work professionally within software development? I also take it that you must be an "educated player" with a very good understanding of strategies and expected returns ..

Hi! I remember you from casino.dk, right?

Earlier in this thread you can read how to calculcate the contribution to the payout% from the freespins. If retriggers was allowed this was not trivial. I do work with software development, but unfortunately not gaming/casino software. It would be more fun.

I rarely play a game if I do not have +EV, which you can get with bonuses. Only exception is VP, I can live with the small house egde for the entertainment value.

Zoozie

 

[bridgehajen]

Hi! I remember you from casino.dk, right?

Yes, I have been quite active on the Danish forums but not so much these days since I haven't placed any bets anywhere for about a year. Still, the math of casino bonuses thrills me. Besides, I'll be moving to Norway shortly, and I suppose that this will bring some new bonus opportunities.

Earlier in this thread you can read how to calculcate the contribution to the payout% from the freespins. If retriggers was allowed this was not trivial. I do work with software development, but unfortunately not gaming/casino software. It would be more fun.

I work in software development as well. I quite like doing a bit of software in my spare time, especially the part about designing things from the bottom. At the job, I'm mainly dealing with maintenance projects where I can only design a widget here and a gizmo there. Alas, spare time is a scarce commodity.

 

[Mousey]

I do gamble online a lot - mostly playing Video-poker and NL cash-games.

I only play slots if I get a bonus since I feel the 5% house egde is not really worth the entertainment though it is fun. But since Big Dollar casino opened I play a lot more slots since they give 100% bonuses every week. If online slots with payout >98% existed, then I might play slots without bonuses for entertainment. I also only play 5-reel slots since 3-reel slots do not excite me at all.

Zoozie

Not to me, they don't. They have sent me 0 offers since I signed up and deposited (losing deposit & sign up bonus in record time, I might add). I even made another bonus free deposit after signing up but still no offers. Are these guys affiliated with Grand Prive by any chance?

 

[Zoozie]

A few people wanted the sources code, so here it is.

But I still plan to make a release where the help-file is actually not empty.

Zoozie

 

[jamiester]

yes!!!

im pretty sure that the spin is just a graphic, and that the reels are not actually spinning - the outcome has already been decided as soon as the spin button has been pressed

unless you can prove otherwise vinylweatherman

You are exactly right. The reels aren't really spinning. It is just animation. Much easier just to write down the results of each spin. The sequences will become clear after a while, especially if you are good at puzzles. NOTE: the animated reels must = the virtual reels for this method to work. Many sites (Slotland, Lasseters) don't show the virtual reels.

 

[jamiester]

ohhh

For the old MG slots the graphics are blurred, it not something moving fast.
So it does not really work here.

For the new style MG slots (Witch Doctor etc.) the symbols are actually moving and can be caught on video. The same goes for RTG slots.

I did not know this. That would make mapping easier.

 

[jamiester]

just wanted to say excellent!

This is Real information. I posted the same about a year ago (but in much less attractive fashion and about a much less popular casino) and I am glad to see that people have gotten down to actually figuring out the underlying structure (virtual reels) of slots and, hence, the payouts. Very well done. This is excellent stuff:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy

 

[Zoozie]

After a long break I worked 1 hour more on the program. I am trying to add so the number of scatters give different number of freespins . Ie. 'Isis/Madhatters' style. The problem I am having is with the math behind calculating the exact average number of freespins each feature, but maybe I will make progress.

However I did simulate(so not exact values, but close!) Thunderstruck with the following modification:
3 scatters= 15 freespins
4 scatters= 20 freespins
5 scatters= 25 freespins

And I was surprised to see how little effect this actually had.

With the modification:
Average #spins/feature:17.07
Average feature win(in bet size):35.98
Payout%: 95,5-95.6%

Normal Thunderstruck:
Average #spins/feature:16.76
Average feature win(in bet size)::35.33
Payout%~95,05%

However changing the number of freespins won with just 3 scatters does really effect the payout, but the casinos can change the number for 4 and 5 scatters without changing payout% much.

Zoozie

 

[vinylweatherman]

You are exactly right. The reels aren't really spinning. It is just animation. Much easier just to write down the results of each spin. The sequences will become clear after a while, especially if you are good at puzzles. NOTE: the animated reels must = the virtual reels for this method to work. Many sites (Slotland, Lasseters) don't show the virtual reels.

In the MGS files, there are two sets of symbols held for each slot, one set are blurred, and one not. I suspect the blurred ones may well be the actual virtual reels, but with the blurred symbols being used until the reels come to rest, when they are substitited with the clearly defined ones.

 

[Zoozie]

I have now finally made it into an applet so it is easy accessible and I can update it with the latest versions etc.

It still needs a little improvement. Etc. a progress bar when analyzing. And I needs to write something in the help files also. I now have 3 gambling applets on my page.

Btw. what happened to the www.gamblingtools.com homepage? It used to have several usefull applets like mine as well. In fact I wrote to them 1 year ago offering them my slot analyzer, but I never got any reply and a few months later the page was just the gambling link/affiliate site it is now.

Well, here is the slot analyzer in applet form:
Old / Expired Link

Zoozie