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let's get serious about roulette systems

Hi rouletteguy
The runs I saw were black, broken with a red than back to black for the next lengthy run. Another broke with a zero, opposite colour and then back to lengthy run. Then after three, maybe four more rolls another run started. This was painful as it was like a stale-mate for me whilst playing opposite colour each time. I have seen the double run several different times.

Wish I had been psychic and known this post was coming as I would have screen copied and posted for you, but I will do so if ever I come across it again in the future. You probably would have loved this as you would have made substantially by chasing these runs through. Good luck with all.
 
rouletteguy said:
I haven't posted any math's because it's just common sense and I'm too lazy. So let's review shall we..........run of 10 is 1024-1 according to wizard of odds
very rare occurrence, my opinion is the odds of seeing the same sequence soon after is even rarer my opinion is that if you do see it then the odds of seeing 2 huge runs back to back again is even rarer still .....it's happened and not likely to repeat any time soon. Your argument is it's random and it will repeat. Odd's my friend is all it is. In layman's terms it could happen but it probably won't.
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Rouletteguy,

The mistake you are making is the schoolbook example of the gamblers fallacy. It is a combination of two misconceptions, misunderstandings that together typically lead to a monetary loss that is inversely proportional to the time it takes one to realize these mistakes.

I'll try to explain these in layman's terms. For our sample lets use a roulette without 0 so that the red/black odds are exactly 1/2. Consider the following three sequences of 10 spins :

Sequence A : red red red red red red red red red red

Sequence B : black black red black red black red red red black

Sequence C : red black black red black red red black red black

From the wizard of odds you've learned that the odds for sequence A are 1 in 1024. Do you fully appreciate that the odds for sequence B are also 1 in 1024 ? And the same for sequence C ?

The first mistake, in layman's terms, is to try and detect patterns. A gambler that suffers from the gamblers fallacy will judge sequence A as being less likely than sequence B or C - because his brains pattern detector doesn't trigger on sequence B or C, and so he fails to differentiate between the two, resulting in the (wrong) perception that B and C are the same type of events (those without pattern) which to him feel more common than sequence A.

Since the collection of all runs in which you don't detect a pattern is much larger than the collection of all runs in which you do detect a pattern, you end up with the belief that somehow a run of 10 reds like in sequence A is less likely to occur than sequence B or C.

Detecting patterns in a random event is like searching for figures in the clouds - it can be very fun - but they're not really there.

The second mistake is in essence the gamblers fallacy itself but it is important to realize that you can only make it after you make the first mistake. It is the belief that red after sequence A is less likely to occur
than red after sequence B or C. From a mathematical point of view the odds of seeing sequence A, B or C followed by red are all 1 in 2048.

So, to recap :

mistake 1 : looking for patterns.
mistake 2 : assuming a random distribution averages out on the short or mid term.

But mistake 1 is by far the most important one here. A random sequence is the never-ending mix of all possible patterns. In fact, one of the best ways to prove an event is not random is by finding a pattern that doesn't occur.

To close, consider the following analogy .. looking for patterns in random data is like shooting blindfolded at a wall, then going in to paint bull's eyes around the bullet holes. If you do the shooting before the painting - its not target practice. If you didn't predict it - its not a pattern.

Cheers,

Enzo
 
mistake 2 : assuming a random distribution averages out on the short or mid term.
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Ah Ha. My Point Exactly. Great post Enzo. They DO NOT average out in the short or mid term. Only in the long run. hence my post about how long is, "the long run".? The long run is made up of what? It is made up of short and mid runs, over an over an over again.

In the long Run, every number will hit % wise 1/37.
In the short run, some numbers will not even be close to the 1/37, while other numbers will be hitting 2/37, or higher.

As you leave the short run, and approach the mid run, Enzo point is still true. Just because the #7 has gone over 100 spins without hitting, "short run", It can/does sometimes go another 100 spins, or more, without hitting. It DOES NOT average out. In the Short run, verry few things, "possible bets", average out. One color hits more than the other. Some numbers hit a lot more than other numbers. A dozen is not even close to hitting 1/3, and so on.

Thus, imhop, and many years of expierience, Stop betting on things to average out, and start betting on the Un-Equal distribution of #'s, That ALWAYS happens in every short run ever made in the history of the game.
 
That was a really good post Enzo! Very informative

I think I'm just not explaining myself clearly and concisely, 1024 -1 is pretty good odds the event won't occur anyway but my argument is that the pattern won't repeat either indefinitely or soon after it's appeared. The other side is that it can and will...........eventually.

My argument is based on the assumption that the randomness keeps it from forming patterns such as this very often. "It could happen but it probably won't" Chances are pretty good you'll profit from the strategy as opposed to not.

It's gambling .....no matter which way you look at it it's gambling you may win you may lose but I'd rather put my faith in the belief last week's lottery numbers won't come up this week.
"It could happen...........but it probably won't.

If I ever see a run of 20 one colour even knowing the odds are 50-50 every spin of red or black I'd bet a progressive on black and if it stayed red til table limit and busted me I'd do the same thing if I ever saw that run again and why? because the odds of a run of 20 are huge a run of 30 even greater and if the odds are good then to me it's a good bet.

Roulette is a tricky game though, Say you were at a horse race with a 400 pound jockey nobody's gonna bet on that horse but if he wins..............would you bet in favour of him and the jockey on another race?

(I'd dye the horse's hair every week and change it's name travelling with a 200 pound jockey around the country betting on him as the longshot)
 
My head hurts reading this thread LOL

From what I read it seems as if people actually believe the roulette ball has a higher chance of landing in black, if the last 10 spins were red. Are they losing their minds :lolup::lolup:

I mean FFS if its just done 10 reds its a 60% chance its gonna be red again, lump on that RED!!! (And dont tell everyone but number 7 always follows 23 for some reason)
 
yeah your right catch the run on the 4 or 5th consecutive and hold it til it cracks. But then........you'd be lending credibility to love2winalot "what happen's the most will happen the most" It's not a rigid system every strategy is open to adaptability. run's of 10 uncommon runs of 17 rare take a gamble on where it's going to go.

Since I've only seen a run of 17 once maybe twice betting opposite would be a "civil" bet. It could stay red forever.........but it probably won't. I guess I've succumbed to the gambler's fallacy and it is a hopeless endeavour to try and convert me.
 
love2winalot said:
Ah Ha. My Point Exactly. Great post Enzo. They DO NOT average out in the short or mid term. Only in the long run.
Click to expand...

NO NO NO NO NO!!!

Roulette wheels do not have short term, medium term OR long term memories, it's just a wheel and a ball. Look up the word "random" in a dictionary, you may be surprised as to the true meaning of the word. Really, please look it up.

Once you know what the word "random" really means, and you accept that online roulette uses random numbers, how can a working system exist?
 
Hey Hobbit thumper how ya doin? First off the word system is a no-no here for roulette players. we prefer strategy and method. The word system and roulette in the same sentence would get you impaled here if we lived in medieval times. We're discussing what works for us and what does not. Nay-sayer's are continually jumping in and trying to get us all committed to a mental hospital. We don't believe our strategies will work indefinitely or 100% of the time. Only enough to be in a profit. As well we wish to promote roulette as a skill game.

Using a specific betting sequence or pattern is no more harmful than throwing chips randomly on the board. So far for most of us a strategy is working out much better. (I personally employed a new one today for an easy 400 bucks)

So we come on to the forum and post what's working (found through experience) and get ridiculed by nay-sayer's (founded through quoting)

It's most enjoyable glad to see your jumping aboard. Someday at some point our method's will fail and we don't argue that point ( the stock market crashes too) but til then............we'll do what works.
 
rouletteguy said:
Nay-sayer's are continually jumping in and trying to get us all committed to a mental hospital. We don't believe our strategies will work indefinitely or 100% of the time. Only enough to be in a profit. As well we wish to promote roulette as a skill game.
Click to expand...

I reckon that's grounds to be committed ;)

I think using a strategy is more harmful than throwing random chips down - only because you are giving people false hope here that might not know any better. What you post on this forum (and others maybe) is harmful.

I don't have a problem with posting results for your roulette experiments, but to keep repeating assertions which are catagorically and undeniably false is dangerous. This is a busy forum, some people are almost certainly reading your posts and losing money because of them.


rouletteguy said:
So far for most of us a strategy is working out much better.[/b]
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This just isn't true. Strategy = random betting = losing money.

Take everyone on this forum who plays strategies. Find out their total win/loss figures. The overall result is a loss. I don't even need to do the survey to know this.
 
liquuid_fusion it's all gambling and FYI strategy does not need to imply a system alway's. It can be cutting losses at a specific point It can be an alteration of flat betting it can be a number of things. I do alright employing strategy with roulette so does love2winalot so does staceylee and klash might someday when his visions tell him to gamble instead of ask how.

What your trying to say is flat bet on red for an hour will yield the same results as responsible progression betting alternating colors and cutting loss. It's simply not true. Or that flat betting on a specific number is the same as betting a dozen bet with reverse martingale. doesn't matter your gonna lose no matter what you do. Again simply not true.

Every strategy invented exists because it is more successful than random betting. So hey if you think they're gonna lose anyway ain't it better they get longer play time for the same amount of money?
 
Admin Note: thread split

I've split the thread - the discussion between Winbig and 4ofakind about RTP vs Random BJ has been moved to here:
https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/is-online-blackjack-software-rtp-based-or-random.38938/



rouletteguy said:
...First off the word system is a no-no here for roulette players. we prefer strategy and method. The word system and roulette in the same sentence would get you impaled here if we lived in medieval times. We're discussing what works for us and what does not. Nay-sayer's are continually jumping in and trying to get us all committed to a mental hospital. We don't believe our strategies will work indefinitely or 100% of the time. Only enough to be in a profit. As well we wish to promote roulette as a skill game.

Using a specific betting sequence or pattern is no more harmful than throwing chips randomly on the board. So far for most of us a strategy is working out much better. (I personally employed a new one today for an easy 400 bucks)

So we come on to the forum and post what's working (found through experience) and get ridiculed by nay-sayer's (founded through quoting)

It's most enjoyable glad to see your jumping aboard. Someday at some point our method's will fail and we don't argue that point ( the stock market crashes too) but til then............we'll do what works.
Click to expand...
The problem with discussing roulette "systems" on boards like these, is that in most cases those who tout that systems work usually have a vested interest. lovestoWinalot sells a system on his website for $349.00. So far we've had Klash - a repeat offender for spamming roulette systems, and now recently a number of threads that pump up these systems.

Our members may be a lot of things, but stupid they ain't (well, maybe a couple :p). For the most part, the math heads and (real) professional gamblers will chime in this thread reminding everyone that systems are hooey. If you are trying to convince me that systems work with roulette, you might as well try to sell me that the earth is flat, or that it's only 6000 years old because it's basically the same thing.

My main concern is that some naive newbie will get suckered into believing that there is any substance to this.
 
Just to be fair - lovestoWinalot is not actively selling any "system" at the moment. His site is pretty much dead. I didn't want give the impression to anyone that he is shillin' anything.
 
I have stayed away from this thread because other people have done a perfectly good job of explaining the pitfalls.

Enzo explained this brilliantly rouletteguy but you are still falling into the same trap over and over so I will try another analogy.

The only thing I can think of as a way for you to visualise how one random event does not effect on the probability of an equal independent random event is to use a coin toss analogy - assuming we know the coin has a 50/50 probability of heads or tails.

By definition your reasoning would be that if a coin were tossed 10 times and landed heads each time the probability of the next toss being a tail are greater than if the last 10 tosses were all tails.
For this to be true we would need some supernatural force acting upon the coin on the next time it is tossed. I think you and others may see probability as this force and that is the problem.
(Actually there is a profound topic of discussion there but that is not for here)

Or to put it another way if there is no connection between the two events one can not be influenced by the other.
The only possible way a system could work were if the RNG were faulty for online play or the table was not correctly balanced in land based - this would provide a common connection that could have the same influence on otherwise random events.

As Enzo states the brain looks for patterns which is why a lottery sequence of 1,2,3,4,5,6 seems intuitively more unlikely than 4,19,21,22,36,46 or any other sequence are brains do not see a pattern in.

Enzo did a better job of explaining this but maybe this helps.
 
rouletteguy said:
What your trying to say is flat bet on red for an hour will yield the same results as responsible progression betting alternating colors and cutting loss. It's simply not true.
Click to expand...


Err.... it simply is true.



rouletteguy said:
Or that flat betting on a specific number is the same as betting a dozen bet with reverse martingale. doesn't matter your gonna lose no matter what you do. Again simply not true.
Click to expand...

:what:


In terms of House Advantage, ie expected amount lost, you are wrong on both points here. Full stop, this cannot be argued.

Betting on a number vs betting on the dozens has the same expected loss, but the variance is greater on the numbers. So you will see wilder swings up and down with the same end result.
 
I still say to get in and out with a profit your much better off to use a strategy. I'll refer back to the wizard of odds site where in 1 million spins the numbers all averaged out to within a few hundred of each other. If everything has an equal chance but they all balance out then what the hell?

I do what works for me as every gambler does but I see Brian's point that some newbie could come on here and think they found the holy grail of roulette and bet the rent on it so maybe it's best we let this thread fade off into oblivion.
 
rouletteguy said:
I still say to get in and out with a profit your much better off to use a strategy.
Click to expand...

So you have figured a way to beat roulette. How much you have earned with this "strategy"? You should be rich man by now, right?

I see that you're still playing those free money and deposit bonuses, but I'm guessing you're just doing it for fun. With working "strategy" you really don't need them.
 
actually you should read my new thread on bonuses trying to win with one of them is dumber than a slots player's strategy. And I do alright with my roulette play. I got what I wanted from this thread namely other's working strategies and evidence I am not alone in my thinking. Maybe I'm just really lucky. Let's leave it at that. This thread has gotten useless because it's become a tug-o-war neither of us can win. Both sides have presented arguments in a civil manner with some points of lasting interest along the way now I'm considering it old news and abandoning it. Again namely because I am concerned some newbie with no experience in roulette will lose the farm. What works for me may not work for you.
 
actually you should read my new thread on bonuses trying to win with one of them is dumber than a slots player's strategy.
Click to expand...

Enough with the jabs, already. You're insulting about 90% of the forum when you make stupid remarks like that. You know that, right?

This thread has gotten useless because it's become a tug-o-war neither of us can win.
Click to expand...

Only because you just have to have the last word.
 
let's get serious about roulette systems
This is what can be called an oxymoron!

I have not read one post here but am tired of seeing such a ridiculous heading .
There is no such thing as a "winning" strategy or system in any casino games!! You might get lucky and for a long time but you are destined to lose the more you play

This not meant to "flame" but just incase any newbies read this thread and is foolish enough to believe3 there is such a thing as a winning system
 
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Hey I may be dumb but I ain't stupid.

Isn't that pretty you back off and agree to disagree then take a jab at the jabber and you lose all your rep points.

Found in an old ask the meister post I like it!!!!! probably works best with Budweiser.

Deposit $200 (the hell with any bonus - you want to play with your money). Choose one of the MG 9 line slots - drink beer.
Start spinning at $9 a spin and hope and pray for some good hits or the "free spin" scatters. Speaking directly to the computer screen helps. Sometimes the game can hear you. Drink more beer.

If you happen to have a few good hits, and your total is above $225, increase the spins to $11.25 per spin. If it drops to below $175 decrease the spins to $9 per spin. If you get up to $275, start making those $22.50 spins - no less than four - then drop down again. Drink more beer.

The goal is to have enough to make a few $45 spins hoping to hit the free spin scatters (or the bonus rounds). If you happen to get past $400 - cash out $200 and start again. Drink a beer.

the point is everyone has a way they play. A strategy if you will. "Do what works" But after listening to the opinions expressed in this thread and words of wisdom I am genuinly concerned some kid will come on here go max out a credit card and lose.

That won't be the result of any system or strategy that will be a result of poor money management. A belief in an infallible system. So be it a slot's player who play's 10 spins and changes games "because that's how they alway's win" or a BJ player who play's strategy or a roulette player who play's strategy. We all have one we use end of discussion.

Probably the first 50 times I played roulette I lost, finally I got to where I was winning consistently I think to be successful at anything takes practice and experience. A newbie isn't going to invest the time to gain that experience. The purpose of this forum is to assist other players and learn from other players. What I do works for me and the more I think about it the more I realize experience play's a huge part. You just learn when to leave and when to use which strategy.

We did have a very good discussion each side offering up valid points etc.
And no spamming or sale of systems. Which is what I wanted. To be the guy who came on here rationally and logically discussing roulette strategies without total rejection from the get go. No amount of persuasion is going to convert the whole forum to trying their hand at the wheel but I'm sure we persuaded some. And I'm sure we persuaded some to view it as a skill game. WHICH CAN ONLY BE LEARNED THROUGH EXPERIENCE.

I think it should be left up for a few day's and then the thread should disappear so some kid doesn't invest more than they can afford to lose.
 
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Sounds like rouletteguy is thinking about calling it a wrap, okay by me.
 
https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/lets-get-serious-about-roulette-systems.38725/

Excellent post, Rouletteguy. I feel the same way about roulette. It requires experience to be good with it, and experience is skill (though that still might not be enough to be a winner in the long term.) I made a similar post in the Love2winalot thread about his strategy. He can post his strategy, but he can't post his time and experience that went into that strategy. I think the only way to go is to develop your own strategy over the course of months / years on low stakes / free games until you get to a point where you can ramp up the stakes and be confident that you won't lose your ass every time you play.
 
There's a guy with username 'Spike' who has claimed for years on gambling forums (gambler's glen and VLSroulette.com) that he can 'read' past outcomes on the roulette even chances with strike rate better than 70%. He claims it's just a matter of practice and that anyone can learn to do it.

Absurd of course, and you have to suppose he has some kind of scam going.
 

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