Maybe you missed these interesting articles I posted here a while back.
Do The Casinos Cheat At Video Games
So I had to do my homework. My fellow gaming writers have assumed that because New Jersey is a regulated state, its regulations are the same as Nevada concerning video-poker machines. Had anyone really bothered to talk to the members of the New Jersey Casino Control Commission or ask to see a copy of the regulations? If the anonymous letter writer in Blackjack Forum was right—New Jersey did not have the same rules governing video-poker machines as did Nevada.
I called the New Jersey Casino Control Commission to see if I could ease my fears or fuel my fire. After all, the control commissions of the various gaming jurisdictions set the rules that the casinos must abide by. Supposedly these commissions exist to protect us—the players. I spoke with Tony DiFlorio who told me that while the video-poker machines must conform to the same payback percentage range as any other slot machine, that is 83% to 99% return, "they are considered slot machines" and that there are no separate requirements for them as in Nevada. When I asked him if they must be based on a totally random shuffling of the cards, and that each hand must theoretically appear with its expected frequency, he stated that there were only two criteria for the machine. The first— “that it falls within the payback scheme” (83% to 99%) and the second that "every sequence be in the programming."
"But that means," I said, " that if a natural royal flush is a 40,000 to one shot, the machine could be programmed to pay it once in every 300,000 hands or more?"
"Yes," he said. "The machine has to have the royal flush sequence in the programming just as a slot machine would have to have for example the triple 7's but the frequency is up to the programming."
Two days later I received a set of the regulations from John M. Kovac, Administrative Practice Officer for the New Jersey Casino Control Commission concerning slot machines in New Jersey. No distinctions were made between video-poker and other slots. The information that Mr. DiFlorio had given me checked out. Indeed, the letter writer to Blackjack Forum had been correct. Video-poker machines in Atlantic City are slot machines and the probabilities are not necessarily the same as they would be for similar machines in Nevada. Remember, Nevada is based strictly on the random shuffling of 52 (or 53) cards. The hands will appear in the long run within their expected frequency range. This does not have to be so for New Jersey Casinos. The game will be random, yes, but random the way a slot machine is random—that is, based on a program that dictates the probabilities and not based on the probabilities in a 52 (or 53) card deck.
The bottom line? Here it is. For those of you who can play in Nevada, assuming the problem of like-card discard was just a "blip" or at worst a programming flaw in some machines as Dr. Schneider suggested, all the strategies in this book can be confidently applied because the game is what it appears to be—video poker based on a random shuffle with no variable programming or secondary decisions. The hands will come up with their expected probability in the long run.
Unfortunately, I can't recommend the Atlantic City video-poker games because I can't be confident that the strategies outlined in this book would be the most effective strategies to play on variable programming machines or secondary decision machines—especially for the supposedly better-paying machines. If, for example, the royal flush is a one in 1,000,000 chance instead of a one in 40,000 chance in Atlantic City—a Draw Poker Jacks-or-Better hand such as ten of spades, jack of spades, queen of spades, king of spades and a king of hearts would probably return more by keeping the two kings and discarding the other cards. You might have to play the Atlantic City game based on the "a bird in the hand is worth more then two in the bush" principle. Take your little wins when you get them and be happy. For Atlantic City, the best principles to use would be to choose a video-poker machine as you would choose a slot machine. Use the money management techniques of a slot player because you could be playing a slot machine dressed in video-poker machine's clothing.
But what of other jurisdictions in America? With gambling fever spreading like wild fire throughout the country how can players know what they're playing? They can if they take the time to look over the regulations governing the machine games in the casinos where they wish to play. All regulatory states must explain the criteria of their machines. New Jersey isn't cheating the players (technically)—the rules clearly show what their machines have to be—slot machines returning 83 to 99 percent. The fact that the players and gaming authorities assumed the New Jersey rules were the same as Nevada is their fault.
Some other excerpts from a different article:
Video poker machines use random number generators to determine which cards to deal. This makes the dealing completely random. For this reason, the odds of being dealt a winning hand after the pre-draw are entirely predictable. However, the odds of winning after the discard depend on your discarding strategy.
In Nevada and most other locations in the U.S. where casino gambling is legal, the software used in any video poker or video blackjack game has to be approved by the state’s Gaming Control Board or other government entities. In most states (but not all), the law requires that for video games that represent card games, the cards must be dealt randomly from a full 52-card deck or decks. In these games, the house edge on a machine can be accurately determined by a player simply by looking at the machine’s payout schedule and rules. If the payout schedule and rules would give the house a ½% edge dealing fairly from a full 52-card deck or decks, you know that you will be giving up ½% on every bet you place in this game.
So by crooked, I mean any software in which a game is either not being dealt from a full 52-card deck, or in which the cards are not being dealt randomly. Instead, the games are rigged to pay out at fixed percentages just like slot machines.
The fear of this type of crooked software is what keeps most gamblers from playing at Internet casinos.
In a casino where the software is rigged to give the house a higher edge, the cards may never even out. You may keep busting your stiffs and losing your double downs, or never getting royals or 4 of a kinds or flushes or even pairs of jacks or better, because the software is designed specifically to deal you cards that will make you lose.
Crooked software is perfectly legal in some states and foreign countries.
These types of software are legal to use in Internet casinos as well, unless the country where the casino is physically located or licensed prohibits the use of such software. Nevertheless, while this software may be legal, just as it may be legal to set a slot machine to win whatever percentage the casino wants, most players would not consider these games fair.