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KENTUCKY DERBY 2006 (May 6, 2006)

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Pinababy69, Mar 19, 2006.

    Mar 19, 2006
  1. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    The 132nd running of the historic Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is fast approaching, and I thought that it might be fun and informative to start getting the lowdown on some of the contenders. In JohnSteed like (I hope) fashion, I have compiled some data and photos, and have included my own opinions on some of the horses. Please DO NOT take my comments too seriously, as I do this strictly for fun. Also keep in mind that the actual race itself is almost seven weeks away, and in that time anything can happen. There are many prep races still to be run, and there are so many variables to take into account, that this is really a very preliminary rundown. I'll try to keep this thread updated with prep race results, injuries, and any other pertinent information I come across. I have only included 13 horses here as a starter, more may be added as time goes by.

    While I know there are some very knowledgeable "horse people" here at CM, I am sure there are also some who know very little about stats, so I'll include a brief description of what each means, and a somewhat condensed version of horse racing lingo and variables for predicting performance. I am also probably going to break this down into a few posts as it will be VERY long, and if I lose any of it, I will subsequently lose what is left of my mind. Bryan assured me there is no post "length limit", but I am thinking I may go over one page, lol.

    Sire and Dam - horse's father and mother respectively (name in brackets is the dam's sire). The term bred for (speed, stamina) "on top" refers to the sire's side, "on the bottom" refers to the dam's side.

    Record - total starts and in brackets, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes.

    Graded Earnings - refers to money won in graded events. All horse races have classes attached to them, or what "company" a horse runs in. There are maiden races (for non-winners of any race), claiming races (where a horse is claimed prior to the race for a predetermined amount), allowance races (slightly larger purses, sometimes a test to determine a horse's class), and stakes races (the highest class, ranging from ungraded to G3, G2 and G1..with G1 being the creme de la creme). Figures in this category only take into account what the horse has earned in G1, G2 and G3 races.

    Last Races - includes the date, name of the race, whether it was a graded event or not, and the horse's finishing position.

    A mile is equal to eight furlongs, as a point of reference. The Kentucky Derby is run at 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs). Just something to keep in mind when trying to pick a horse, and determining if he can "go the distance". None of the horses profiled here have raced at 1 1/4 miles, just another variable to keep in mind, and this is where breeding really comes into play.

    Two of the sites that I used for reference are:

    You must register/login in order to see the link.

    You must register/login in order to see the link.

    Both excellent sources of info, and both updated regularly. Okay, now that I've bored everyone to tears...on to the horses.


    ACHILLES OF TROY
    Sire - Notebook
    Dam - Steamy Recipe (Relaunch)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Frank Amonte Jr.
    JOCKEY - Ramon Dominguez

    RECORD - 7 (3-1-1)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $6,000

    LAST RACES
    03/18/06 - Gotham (G3) 5th
    02/11/06 - Whirlaway Stakes 1st
    01/07/06 - Count Fleet Stakes 1st

    Achilles of Troy has not won at a distance over 1 1/16 miles and is very lightly raced in graded stakes company. The one positive is his win in the Count Fleet, the same race that produced the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones. While beautiful to look at, I don't see him making that much of an impact come race day.

    BARBARO
    Sire - Dynaformer
    Dam - La Ville Rouge (Carson City)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Michael Matz
    JOCKEY - Edgar Prado

    RECORD - 4 (4-0-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $150,000

    LAST RACES
    02/04/06 - Holy Bull (G3) 1st
    01/01/06 - Tropical Park Derby (G3) 1st

    Barbaro has won at 1 1/8 miles, and it's hard to argue with a 4 for 4 record. You have to keep in mind that a horse's form goes in cycles however, and I hope this one hasn't peaked too early. While his sire Dynaformer is predominantly known for his turf offspring, he has also produced some notable main track winners. Barbaro won the Holy Bull in convincing fashion on a track that you could have done the backstroke on. With Carson City on the dam's side, should the track come up sloppy on Derby day, this horse becomes my number one pick. Big contender either way. I will be anxious to see his next and probably final prep race, maybe the Wood Memorial. It's also worth noting here that jockey Edgar Prado is slated to ride both Barbaro and First Samurai (who barring unforeseen circumstances may be one of the race favourites). The time will come when Prado has to choose which mount to keep, and it bears watching to see which horse he chooses.

    BLUEGRASS CAT
    Sire - Storm Cat
    Dam - She's A Winner (A.P. Indy)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Todd Pletcher
    JOCKEY - John Velazquez

    RECORD - 6 (4-1-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $237,980

    LAST RACES
    3/18/06 - Tampa Bay Derby (G3) 2nd
    2/18/06 - Sam F. Davis Stakes 1st

    Bluegrass Cat has Storm Cat as his sire, and you can't ask for much better than that. Throw A.P. Indy into the mix, and it just gets better. However, he's lightly raced, and I'll have to see a bit more from him, before making any judgements. He has won at 1 1/8 miles, and I don't see any problem with the additional furlong.

    BOB AND JOHN
    Sire - Seeking The Gold
    Dam - Minister's Melody (Deputy Minister)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Bob Baffert
    JOCKEY - Victor Espinoza

    RECORD - 8 (3-1-3)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $140,373

    LAST RACES
    03/18/06 - San Felipe (G2) 3rd
    02/04/06 - Sham (G3) 1st
    01/20/06 - Allowance Race 1st
    12/17/05 - Hollywood Futurity (G1) 3rd

    If I were forced to make one choice right now, Bob and John would be it. There are so many things to love about this horse, not the least of which is the Bob Baffert angle. Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem....all Baffert success stories. And all of them so close to the Triple Crown Holy Grail. Add Victor Espinoza into the mix, who rode War Emblem to impressive wins in both the 2002 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and you have a winning combination. His sire Seeking The Gold has produced five champions and six millionaires. Bob and John is beautiful to look at and has powerful hindquarters, which is something I look for. He has won at 1 1/8 miles and I don't foresee distance being a problem. As of right now, this horse is my top pick and I am anxiously awaiting his next start prior to the Derby. If I know Bob Baffert, he will have this horse peaking at just the right moment. I hate to be premature, but I'm even thinking Triple Crown. Did I mention the Bob Baffert connection? :D

    BROTHER DEREK
    Sire - Benchmark
    Dam - Miss Soft Cell (Siyah Kalem)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Dan Hendricks
    JOCKEY - Alex Solis

    RECORD - 7(5-0-1)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $664,980

    LAST RACES
    03/04/06 - Santa Catalina (G2) 1st (in 1:41.96)
    01/14/06 - San Rafael (G2) 1st
    12/17/05 - Hollywood Futurity (G1) 1st

    When you look at Brother Derek's record and earnings, it's pretty hard not to like him. But I don't. He has won his last three races, including the G1 Hollywood Futurity. He is one of only two G1 winners in the field. The time he put forth in winning the Santa Catalina is outstanding. His sire Benchmark is a son of Alydar. He has won at 1 1/16 with ease. He has outstanding workouts. But my concern is how long can this form last? The Derby is still seven weeks away and this horse has already been in peak form for more than three months with another race to go prior to the Derby. I have no doubt that he will be the raceday favourite, which is another reason for me not to bet him. Historically, the favourites do not do well on Derby day. But perhaps he IS a super horse, and will prove me wrong. That wouldn't bother me a bit, as I love to watch history in the making.

    Okay, five down and eight to go. I am going to continue this in another post...and give my fingers a break for a few minutes.
     
    4 people like this.
  2. Mar 20, 2006
  3. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    KENTUCKY DERBY (Cont'd)

    CAUSE TO BELIEVE
    Sire - Maria's Mon
    Dam - Imaginary Cat (Storm Cat)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Jerry Hollendorfer
    JOCKEY - Russell Baze

    RECORD - 9(6-3-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $137,500

    LAST RACES
    03/11/06 - California Derby 1st (1 1/16 1:41.07)
    01/29/06 - El Camino Real (G3) 1st

    Cause To Believe was originally purchased for the paltry sum of $50,000 which is hard to believe. His sire, Maria's Mon, had two Grade 1 wins at the age of two and also sired the 2002 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. Cause To Believe's time in winning the California Derby is phenomenal, irregardless of it being a graded race or not. He has won easily at 1 1/16 miles and with his breeding, distance should pose no problem. I want to see one more race before I decide, but this one is a definite possibility and maybe with a decent price attached. Dependent on his next performance, I would definitely be throwing him into my exotic tickets.

    CORINTHIAN
    Sire - Pulpit
    Multiply (Easy Goer)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - James Jerkens
    JOCKEY - Javier Castellano

    RECORD - 4(2-1-1)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $33,000

    LAST RACES
    03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) Finished 1st, placed 3rd for interference
    02/06/06 - Allowance

    Some horses are just bad actors, and this guy is one of them. He can't behave in the starting gate, and he can't behave on the track. He did win the Fountain of Youth, but was promptly disqualified because of his antics. None of this bodes well for him, as the excitement and noise of Churchill Downs on Derby day has been known to upset the calmest of horses. A throwout for me.

    FIRST SAMURAI
    Sire - Giant's Causeway
    Dam - Freddie Frisson (Dixieland Band)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Frank Brothers
    JOCKEY - Edgar Prado

    RECORD - 7(5-1-1)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $834,900

    LAST RACES
    03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) finished 2nd, placed 1st
    02/04/06 - Hutcheson (G2) 2nd
    10/29/05 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) 3rd

    First Samurai is one of only two horses to have won a Grade 1 event, and he has won two of them, the Champagne and the Hopeful, both in 2005. He's already close to the million dollar mark in earnings, and based solely on those criteria looks like the class of the field. However, it seems that his top performances came last year and one has to wonder where he is in his form cycle? On the upside or the down? This is Edgar Prado's other mount, and as mentioned in the comments about Barbaro, I am waiting to see which he chooses. I think that will tell us alot. And truthfully, I like Barbaro much better than this horse. First Samurai came 3rd in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile behind Stevie Wonderboy (a scratch for the Derby) and Henny Hughes (he hasn't even raced this year). Maybe it was some bad karma on the track that day, but I'm steering clear of this one.

    FLASHY BULL
    Sire - Holy Bull
    Dam - Iridescence (Mt. Livermore)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Kiaran McLaughlin
    JOCKEY - Rafael Bejarano

    RECORD - 8(1-4-1)
    GRADED EARNINGS - ?

    LAST RACES
    03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) finished 3rd, placed 2nd

    I included Flashy Bull in this list even though he wasn't one of the top 12 choices on the official Kentucky Derby website. This is my wildcard horse. He did manage a third place finish (moved to 2nd) in the Fountain of Youth, but was badly interfered with by Corinthian (the eventual disqualified winner). In circumstances such as those, there is no way to tell what the outcome may have been. With his breeding, 1 1/4 miles should be no problem. He is scheduled to run next in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on April 1st, and we should have a better grasp then of what he's capable of. If I could pick a horse on looks alone, he would be it. And with Holy Bull as his sire, I think he deserves at least some small consideration.

    HENNY HUGHES
    Sire - Hennessy
    Dam - Meadow Flyer (Meadowlake)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Saaed bin Suroor
    JOCKEY - ?

    RECORD - 6(3-3-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $558,000

    LAST RACES
    10/29/05 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) 2nd
    10/08/05 - Champagne (G1) 2nd

    Henny Hughes is bred top and bottom for pure speed and has not won a race at a distance over six furlongs. Truly, I don't even know he managed to come second in the BC Juvenile and the Champagne. I don't care that he's made over half a million, this horse has not even raced in five months, nor are there any published workouts for him. He is currently stabled over in the UAE and is slated to run in a Grade 1 event on March 25th. Good luck to him, I wouldn't bet him with Monopoly money.

    Only three more to go.....can my fingers make it? :)
     
  4. Mar 20, 2006
  5. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    KENTUCKY DERBY (Last Part)

    KEYED ENTRY
    Sire - Honour and Glory
    Dam - Avaknowsthecode (Cryptoclearance)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Todd Pletcher
    JOCKEY - John Velazquez

    RECORD - 4(3-1-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $130,000

    LAST RACES
    03/18/06 - Gotham (G3) 2nd
    02/04/06 - Hutcheson (G2) 1st

    This is a hard one to call. The sire, Honour and Glory, was known primarily as a miler, and Keyed Entry himself hasn't won at a distance longer than 7 1/2 furlongs. However, he does have Cryptoclearance on his dam's side, and that translates to stamina. This is the second of two entries that Todd Pletcher has, both of them with John Velazquez listed as the jockey. The other is Bluegrass Cat. So once again, I will wait to see which horse John Velazquez opts to go with. I really don't think this horse can get the distance, his next prep should reveal quite a bit more information.

    LAWYER RON
    Sire - Langfuhr
    Dam - Donation (Lord Avie)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Bob Holthus
    JOCKEY - John McKee

    RECORD - 13(6-1-3)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $160,800

    LAST RACES
    03/18/06 - Rebel (G3) 1st
    02/25/06 - Southwest Allowance 1st
    01/14/06 - Risen Star (G3) 1st

    Things that make you go hmmmmm...... I just cannot make up my mind about this one. If I had a sentimental pick, Lawyer Ron fits the bill due to his Canadian connection. His sire Langfuhr was the 1996 Canadian Sprint Champion, whose specialty was 7 furlong races. I watched him race on more than one occasion at Woodbine, and he was truly amazing. But the Derby is 10 furlongs, not 7. Lawyer Ron has won at 1 1/16 miles, but his style is that of a frontrunner, and besides War Emblem, I can't think of a recent Derby winner who employed that racing tactic. The front is not where you want to be at Churchill Downs going 1 1/4 miles. On the other hand, he does seem to be steadily improving and stranger things have happened. Another one to watch, I am not totally discounting him. His win in the Rebel yesterday was most impressive.

    PRIVATE VOW
    Sire - Broken Vow
    Dam - Smooth As Silk (Deputy Minister)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Steve Asmussen
    JOCKEY - Shaun Bridgmohan

    RECORD - 6(4-1-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $317,888

    LAST RACES
    11/26/05 - Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) 1st

    There's not alot to go on here. Private Vow hasn't raced in four months. He is scheduled to race in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby on April 15th, but I cannot see any horse winning the Kentucky Derby with only one race in five months under his belt. I just don't think he can possibly be fit enough to contend. I guess the Arkansas Derby will tell the tale. On the upside, he is bred for distance, and his sire is a son of Unbridled.

    And so there we have it, some of the top contenders for this year's Run For The Roses. We still have a way to go before the field is finalized and opening odds are posted. There will probably be more horses than those I've listed here, and some of the ones I have profiled may not run. Here is a list of 6 of the more high profile upcoming prep races if anyone is interested in keeping up to date.

    Florida Derby (G1) - April 1st, Gulfstream Park
    Illinois Derby (G2) - April 8th, Hawthorne
    Santa Anita Derby (G1) - April 8th, Santa Anita Park
    Wood Memorial (G1) - April 8th, Aqueduct
    Bluegrass Stakes (G1) - April 15th, Keeneland
    Arkansas Derby (G2) - April 15th, Oaklawn Park

    This has been quite an undertaking. JohnSteed, I don't know how you do it, simply amazing. It should be alot of fun for me to come back to these original posts after May 6th and see how far off I was and how much crow I have to eat. Given my present run of luck (or lack of), a good betting strategy may be to take every horse I've tossed, and box them on an exotic ticket, lol. Best of luck to all!!
     
  6. Mar 20, 2006
  7. johnsteed

    johnsteed Ueber Meister

    Occupation:
    N/A
    Location:
    N/A
    ***

    Great list Pinababy69!​

    :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy ​


    I knew absolutely nothing about horse racing... up until today. I love that 4-0 record by "Barbaro" (and that $150,000 graded earnings) . I know it's a horse, but it reminds me of Michael Jordan. That's a start.

    I'd like to expand my portfolio this present year, and I'm thinking of doing more sportsbetting (as opposed to getting rocked by slots again). Actually, I've never really gone that route and I'm unsure as to why I never have. I've got the NBA, NHL, and MLB down (and I suppose tennis as well) in terms of knowing everything about the sport (or as much as I possibly can), and I've been looking to expand to horseracing and NFL football. Thanks for the push (and the links).

    Wonderful work! :thumbsup:

    Steed

    ***
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2006
    1 person likes this.
  8. Mar 20, 2006
  9. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    Thank you Mr. Steed!! I knew I could count on you to actually read what I wrote, lol. Horseracing is a wonderful, exciting sport. And come closer to raceday, I will probably post a poll for people to vote on their choices. Should be interesting to see how bad we really are.

    Right back at ya JohnSteed. :notworthy
     
  10. Mar 20, 2006
  11. mrracetrack

    mrracetrack Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    North of Pluto
    Great Thread Pina!

    Very informative, Pina... and a good read. :thumbsup:

    I'll add a few thoughts on the Derby as it gets closer.

    A lot of horses not highly thought of at this time, will win a few races in the next few weeks, and that will add a bit of interest to the mix.

    About 2 weeks prior to the Derby, things will be a bit clearer. ;)
     
  12. Mar 20, 2006
  13. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    Occupation:
    Bum
    Location:
    Pennsylvania
    Just don't count out the longshots....can't forget what happened not too long ago :D
     
  14. Mar 21, 2006
  15. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    Thank You!!!! I wasn't even sure if anyone would actually read this, lol. I am really looking forward to any comments or additions you have Mrracetrack. You are absolutely right that things could change drastically in the next few weeks, I figure by Mid April, we should know alot more. The three races I will really be watching are the Florida Derby on April 1st and the Wood Memorial and SA Derby on April 8th. I have a feeling that both Barbaro and Flashy Bull may run in the Florida Derby or the Wood. That Flashy Bull really has my interest piqued, and I'd like to see a race from him. And Barbaro is definitely one of my choices. You would probably know better than I would (I'd have to look it up), but historically, I don't think that Wood Memorial winners have fared all that well in the Derby, have they? So while I'm not looking for a win necessarily from either, I would like to see a good solid tightener with good form from both of them. And as of right now, Bob and John would be my pick, so I'll be watching the Santa Anita Derby on the 8th, I think that's where Baffert will run him. It will be interesting to see if Baffert puts his other horse Point Determined in the SA Derby as well. He ran on the weekend and came 2nd I believe (don't quote me, and I can't remember the race, maybe the San Felipe or the Rebel)? One or the other. I'll have to do some research on Point Determined, I know nothing about him, but I hate to overlook another Baffert horse. And does he share any bloodlines with Point Given? The other horse I think deserves some consideration is Cause To Believe, who also may run in the SA Derby. That time (1:41) in the California Derby really caught my eye, as does his sire. Not sure if he can handle the G1 company, I guess we'll find out. I always say if a horse can run, and has the heart, he doesn't know what company he's running in, he just runs. Pretty simple I know, lol.

    I'd love for you to add any additional horses or insights you have Mrracetrack, and thanks again for the compliments. Coming from you, high praise indeed. And feel free to point out any inaccuracies I may have posted as well, this was a long one, lol. :)

    Winbig, I never forget the longshots. Giacomo last year :eek: And he was also a son of Holy Bull, which is maybe why Flashy Bull caught my interest this year. And traditionally, favourites in the Derby do not do well. I always look for value and a decent price, and seldom bet favourites. :D
     
  16. Mar 22, 2006
  17. Daffy

    Daffy Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    middle management
    Location:
    Dallas,TX
    Good work!!!:thumbsup:

    I like the looks of BROTHER DEREK. Long and lean...I believe the "biggies" are all distance/endurance races. Also the Hollywood Futurity win looks good on a resume'.

    Too bad about CORINTHIAN...that's a good-looking horse...maybe he'll mature into something.


    D~~~~
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. Mar 22, 2006
  19. mrracetrack

    mrracetrack Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    North of Pluto
    Latest Rankings...

    These are the March 20th rankings of 3year olds posted by the NTRA...


    Three-Year-Old Poll
    HORSE A-S STS-1-2-3 PTS PVS PROBABLE NEXT START

    1. Brother Derek (13) 3-C 2-2-0-0 165 1 4/8 Santa Anita Derby

    2. Lawyer Ron (3) 3-C 3-3-0-0 152 3 4/15 Arkansas Derby

    3. A.P. Warrior 3-C 2-1-0-0 87 - 4/8 Santa Anita Derby

    4. Barbaro 3-C 2-2-0-0 83 5 4/1 Florida Derby

    5. First Samurai 3-C 2-1-1-0 82 4 4/15 Toyota Blue Grass

    6. Cause to Believe (1) 3-C 3-2-1-0 64 10 4/8 Illinois Derby

    7. Corinthian 3-C 2-1-0-1 61 6 4/8 Wood Memorial

    8. Bluegrass Cat 3-C 2-1-1-0 60 2 Undecided

    9. Keyed Entry 3-C 3-2-1-0 37 8 4/8 Wood Memorial

    10. Point Determined 3-C 4-2-2-0 34 - Undecided

    Age-Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, F-filly.
    Other Horses Receiving Votes: Bob and John-28, Balance-18, Like Now-17, Deputy Glitters-12, Flashy Bull-8, Strong Contender-6, Red Raymond-5, Sharp Humor-4, Too Much Bling-4, Fast Parade-3, Sunriver-3, Laity-2.
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Mar 22, 2006
  21. mrracetrack

    mrracetrack Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    North of Pluto
    The Wood Memorial...

    Pina asked:

    LOL... I had no idea, Pina... so I was happy to look it up... :)

    This is what I found:

    Stats from the Wood Memorial:

    11 Wood Memorial winners have won the Kentucky Derby, the most recent being Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000

    7 horses that have finished 2nd or 3rd in the Wood Memorial went on to win the KY.Derby.

    In 2005, Bellamy Road was a 17 length winner in the Wood, and based on that awesome win, went off as the 5-2 favorite in the KY.Derby, where he tired and finished 7th, to 50-1 long shot Giacomo.


    Pina also inquired about:

    He sure does... ;)

    POINT DETERMINED
    Owned by... C B Robert B. & Beverly J. Lewis... trained by Bob Baffert... breeding... Point Given-Merengue
     
    1 person likes this.
  22. Mar 22, 2006
  23. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    Thank you Mrracetrack. That list of rankings is great! I'm disappointed to see Bob and John all the way down there at #11, but am happy to see Barbaro at #4 and Cause To Believe at #6. As you said before though, with so many prep races still to come, the overall picture is likely to change. I still see Brother Derek being the raceday favourite, I'll have to make sure and watch the SA Derby as stats and charts are great, but nothing compares to actually watching a horse run. Maybe I'll hop the private jet to California and see what's what. :D

    And thanks for the stats on the Wood, the winners have actually fared a bit better than what I thought. I'm more likely to be watching who finishes in the top three or four though. I may go and put some data together on the more prestigious of the upcoming prep races, as to which races have produced the most winners etc.

    And Point Determined is a son of Point Given? And owned by the Lewises? And trained by Baffert? All that's missing is Gary Stevens (he did ride Point Given didn't he, lol)? And how in the hell did I miss A.P. Warrior? Back to the research lab for me, these two absolutely have to be included in the overall picture.

    You know what's sad for me is that there is no Gary Stevens, Pat Day or Jerry Bailey this year. All of them retired in one year. The end of an era for sure. I had just been going to post that it was too bad young Jeremy Rose didn't have a Derby mount this year, and what a shame this was. However, I thought I'd better go take a quick gander and lo and behold, Nick Zito has a horse named Great Point (2nd in the Holy Bull to Barbaro and another son of Point Given!!) possibly pointed towards the Derby, and Jeremy Rose is his jockey. I've been watching that kid for a while now, and he has talent on top of talent. That ride on Afleet Alex last year in the Preakness still amazes me, how the horse stayed on his feet, and how JR stayed on his back defies logic. So many memorable Derby moments, I sure hope that this year's race provides some history as well. Thanks for the input Mrracetrack, keep it coming!! :D
     
    1 person likes this.
  24. Mar 25, 2006
  25. mrracetrack

    mrracetrack Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    North of Pluto
    UPDATED MARCH 24th...

    Who's Hot, Who's Not​


    WHO'S HOT: There were wholesale changes to the top 25. Although there are only two newcomers - Like Now and Red Raymond - several horses either moved way up or way down because of their performances last weekend. Like Now, the winner of the Gotham Stakes, and Red Raymond, who was second in the Rebel Stakes, are both 50-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Lawyer Ron, 20-1 a week ago, is now the second choice at 6-1 following his victory in the Rebel. A. P. Warrior, the San Felipe winner, also made a big move forward. He is now 15-1 after being 60-1 last week.

    WHO'S NOT: Corinthian was dropped from the list because of a minor fracture that will force him to miss the rest of the Triple Crown series. Refinery was dropped after a fifth-place finish in the San Felipe. Achilles of Troy, fifth in the Gotham as the favorite, is now 40-1 after being 15-1 last week. Other horses whose prices were raised significantly by Watchmaker following last week's races were Keyed Entry (30-1 from 15-1) and Private Vow (40-1 from 15-1).

    ON THE BUBBLE: Greeley's Legacy, who was fourth in the Gotham, and Racketeer, who was fourth in the San Felipe, are the next in line to move onto the list, pending the results of races this weekend in Kentucky and Dubai.
     
    1 person likes this.
  26. Mar 25, 2006
  27. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    Thanks for the info/update Mrracetrack. I've been working on a few different things this past week, and haven't been able to do the additional research that I wanted to do. But I am off to do that now. I am going to add profiles for three more horses - Point Determined, A.P. Warrior and Great Point (this one just on his breeding alone deserves consideration).

    I'm happy to see that some of the horses I discounted at the start, have lived up to my non-expectations (is that a phrase?). While I don't like seeing any horse suffer an injury, I am not sorry to see Corinthian scratched. The last thing we want is an erratic and unpredictable horse running in a big field of 20 or more horses, with 100,000 plus people screaming in the background. Recipe for disaster if you ask me. This race is dangerous enough just given the size of the field, and the jockeying for position that goes on. I'm also not surprised to see Achilles of Troy, Keyed Entry and Private Vow become even bigger longshots. I really think that by a week or two before the race I won't have a problem picking a horse, and perhaps an exotic ticket or two. I hope that you also are going to post your picks. And I had really been hoping that more people may be into this, but so far it looks like you and me, lol. Which is okey dokey too. This is going to be interesting. :)
     
  28. Mar 25, 2006
  29. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    3 More To Consider

    A.P. WARRIOR
    Sire - A.P. Indy
    Dam - Warrior Queen (Quiet American)
    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - John Shirreffs
    JOCKEY - Corey Nakatani (Garrett Gomez?)

    RECORD - 7(3-1-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $233,185

    LAST RACES
    03/18/06 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) 1st (1 1/16 1:42.4)
    01/29/06 - El Camino Real (G3) Out of the money

    I knew nothing about this horse except that with A.P. Indy as his sire, I wanted to know more. He was apparently an unruly two year old (not all that uncommon in this game), but the general consensus seems to be that he is starting to come into his own and is learning how to run (yes horses have to be taught how to run and to win). I decided to take a look at his win in the San Felipe, and saw things I both liked and disliked. Once he got the lead, he never relinquished it. Point Determined tried to sneak by him on the inside just before the wire, but A.P. Warrior pinned his ears and dug in. This shows some character and determination. The downside of this to me is that the San Felipe was only 1 1/16 miles and I'm not entirely convinced that 1 1/4 miles is within this one's reach. With A.P. Indy as his sire, it shouldn't be a problem, but I wanna see one more. His next start is slated to be the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 8th. I will definitely be watching.

    GREAT POINT
    Sire - Point Given
    Dam - Crafty Queen (Crafty Prospector)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Nick Zito
    JOCKEY - Jeremy Rose

    RECORD - 6(2-1-0)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $30,454

    LAST RACES
    03/04/06 - Fountain of Youth (G2) 10th (last)
    02/04/06 - Holy Bull Stakes (G3) 2nd

    I am such a huge fan of Point Given, that I simply cannot overlook any of his offspring. So once again, I decided to watch race replays of both the Fountain of Youth and the Holy Bull. All I can say to the Holy Bull is WOW!!! Barbaro was the eventual winner, once he got the lead, he never looked back. But Great Point was at least 20 lengths out and dead last before they hit the final turn for home. I watched the replay three times and I still can't figure out where he even came from. All I know is that when they started moving down the stretch, he was charging like a freight train on the outside. Given another 1/16 of a mile to work with, I am totally convinced he would have won this race. To put things in perspective though, the track was like soup that day, and Great Point had some pretty decent fractions to run at (good contested pace upfront). So I then moved on to the Fountain of Youth replay, where Great Point was 10th and last, and never even got so much as a call in the race. What happened? I have no idea....maybe he bounced (oftentimes happens after a huge effort in a previous race), maybe he didn't feel well that day, maybe the move up in company from a G3 to a G2 was more than he could handle. And the fractions in that race were painfully slow IMO, 23.8, 48.3, 1:12.3, 1:36...with a finishing time of 1:49 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. So he really had nothing to run at, although I feel it's more than that. I can't throw out that Holy Bull performance though, and I'm really hoping to see this once bounce back. I love the Nick Zito/Jeremy Rose angle as well.

    POINT DETERMINED
    Sire - Point Given
    Dam - Merengue (Broad Brush)

    [​IMG]

    TRAINER - Bob Baffert
    JOCKEY - Garrett Gomez

    RECORD - 5(2-2-1)
    GRADED EARNINGS - $50,000

    LAST RACES
    03/18/06 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) 2nd

    Yet another son of Point Given, and Baffert's "other" horse. Point Determined was purchased for the sum of $290,000 as a yearling. He hasn't won at a distance longer than 1 1/16 miles, but given his breeding, this is absolutely not a problem. I watched a replay of the San Felipe (more on that later) where Point Determined finished a very game 2nd to A.P. Warrior. He had post position number one that day and was stuck down along the inside for the whole race (not an optimum place to be dependent on how the track was playing). A.P. Warrior definitely had the advantage with a clean outside trip. Point Determined never gave up though, and once he did manage to find some racing room, he made a bold move along the inside to actually poke a nose in front for a brief moment. However, A.P. Warrior pinned his ears, dug in his heels and regained the advantage. I still have to wonder though had Point Determined had a more advantageous race/starting position, if the outcome may have been different? Very impressive race overall, and I think that added distance can only help this horse in the long run. Watching this one really closely to see how his next race pans out. I was also a little disappointed to see that the Churchill Downs handicapper has not even included this one in his Top 10....I think that's a mistake, but then again, what do I know?
     
    1 person likes this.
  30. Mar 25, 2006
  31. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    Point Given (What A Horse)!!

    I've been rambling on about Point Given, and I guess it's pretty obvious that he's a favourite of mine. This is his first crop of three year olds running this year, and I am dying with anticipation to see if he is going to be as great a sire as he was a racehorse. This short bio below was taken directly from the Three Chimneys farm website, where Point Given currently stands stud.

    The most dominating presence at the races in 2001 was Point Given. Nationally, globally, and historically, he towered over his competitors in the manner of the great ones.

    On the racecourse, Point Given was a dual Classic winner, champion 3 year old, and Horse of the Year. He earned $3,968,500 with nine wins and three seconds in 13 career starts.

    At 2, he was nosed out for the two year old crown (in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile), but he did win two Graded stakes, including the Hollywood Futurity-G1. At 3, his record of six wins in seven starts in six Grade I races earned him the overall championship.

    His Timeform rating that year of 133 was the highest for any American racehorse, and he was awarded the ultimate honor-becoming the 11th three year old to earn the gold Eclipse Award, as Horse of the Year.

    Historically, Point Given casts an even more imposing shadow. He won the "Test of Champions," the Classic Belmont Stakes, by over 12 lengths. His time of 2:26 2/5 is the fourth fastest Belmont on record, faster than the last two Triple Crown winners, immortals Affirmed and Seattle Slew, and significantly faster than the last three Belmont winners, Afleet Alex, Birdstone, and Empire Maker.

    His feat of winning the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers has been accomplished just four other times in the last 103 years*by Hall of Fame members Man o' War, Whirlaway, Native Dancer and Damascus.

    Daily Racing Form's esteemed Joe Hirsch was never prone to hyperbole. Upon the announced retirement of Point Given, he wrote: "We were fortunate to have him as long as we did, and we will treasure the rich memories he left us."

    A superior physical specimen with scope, grace and a dominant presence, Point Given is by Classic-winning champion Thunder Gulch, out of Broodmare of the Year Turko's Turn. America's Leading Sire with just three crops racing, Thunder Gulch has emerged as a leading source of Classic horses worldwide.


    RACE RECORD

    AGE 2

    Won
    Hollywood Futurity-G1
    Kentucky Cup Juvenile-G3

    2nd
    Breeders' Cup Juvenile-G1
    by a nose, to the champion
    Champagne S.-G1

    AGE 3

    Won

    Preakness S.-G1
    Belmont S.-G1
    2:26 2/5, 4th fastest in history
    Travers S.-G1
    117 Beyer, best of year for 3yo colt
    Haskell Invitational H.-G1
    Santa Anita Derby-G1
    San Felipe S.-G1


    Sadly, he was retired after his three year old season due to a tendon injury. In his career, he had 13 starts and finished first 9 times and second 3 times, accumulating total earnings of $3,968,500. The one race he couldn't win was the Kentucky Derby. There's no telling what he could have done if he had been able to continue racing. My thoughts are that he would have been remembered as one of the truly great ones (in my mind he is anyway, lol). Can ya tell? :D

    Point Given was trained by Bob Baffert, and Point Given's son Point Determined is also trained by Bob Baffert this year. I would love nothing better than to see his son go on and accomplish what he wasn't able to do. Fate maybe?
     
    1 person likes this.
  32. Mar 28, 2006
  33. mrracetrack

    mrracetrack Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    North of Pluto
    Current Odds

    These are the current odds offered by Pinnacle Sports (as of 3/28/06)

    Kentucky Derby
    Odds To Win
    Sat May 6th ​

    101 First Samurai +1498
    102 Bluegrass Cat +1833
    103 Brother Derek +810
    104 Barbaro +1653
    105 Achilles of Troy +3019
    106 Private Vow +4065
    107 Keyed Entry +1749
    108 Lawyer Ron +917
    109 Bob And John +1819
    112 Sweetnorthernsaint +2614
    114 Point Determined +2068
    116 Strong Contender +1292
    117 Great Point +5000
    118 Music School +10000
    119 A.P. Warrior +1157
    121 Flashy Bull +6000
    122 Itsallboutthechase +10000
    123 My Golden Song +6500
    124 Noonmark +10000
    125 Steppenwolfer +4249
    127 High Cotton +6000
    129 Tatsuji +12500
    134 Really Indian +9000
    136 Dr. Pleasure +10000
    137 Sacred Light +2339
    138 Sunriver +3003
    139 Cause To Believe +2436
    140 Discreet Cat +711
    141 Showing Up +2568
    142 Deputy Glitters +5000
    143 Like Now +6000
    144 With a City +2814
    145 Seaside Retreat +4109
     
    1 person likes this.
  34. Mar 28, 2006
  35. Pinababy69

    Pinababy69 RIP Lisa

    Occupation:
    Crusader
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario - Canada
    So...as of now, their top three are Discreet Cat, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. I sort of figured the last two would be there....did Discreet Cat do something over the weekend I don't know about? I know there were some prep races over the weekend, and I haven't had one second to look up what happened in them, guess I'll have to get on that.

    Nice to see that Point Determined and Great Point are at least included in that list, keep my hopes alive. And Bob and John's next race will tell the tale for me.

    Mrracetrack, I'll be back later with some links to some video feeds....not sure if you saw Lawyer Ron's performance in the Rebel? If not, I sure would appreciate you watching it and letting me know if you see the same things I see in him. I gotta dig up the link to it....

    Thanks for the odds, a good start. And to the people who thanked me/added rep........thanks!!!
     
    1 person likes this.
  36. Mar 28, 2006
  37. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    Might have to keep my eye on this one. I used to "do the horses" (smalltime) back in the mid-90s when i took a year out. A horse called Ballasecret was my fave...they'd feed it up, let it wobble home, then send it flying in at a low weight in the next handicap at 40-1 :D If you could predict when they hid its feed, you could be quids in. Thinking about it, it may have been the world's first bullemic horse. Ah well...long gone along with my wad.

    It was also the era of "Lochsong" - a horse that was just incredible to watch over 6f (or was it 5f?). Frankie Dettori just had to mount it (in a nice way!)...could have had his tea and a sandwich while he was up there for all he had to do. Not that he'd have had time mind! It just lifted off the ground and romped away with every Group 1 going. I'm sure it either had wheels attached to the underbelly or was a new breed of "hover-horse"!

    Ah well...May 6th...its in my diary :)

    Oh and here's a tip I learned from bad experience: never back a grey! Its more likely an old van they forgot to paint (so especially dont back it over fences!).
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2006
  38. Mar 29, 2006
  39. mrracetrack

    mrracetrack Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    North of Pluto
    Simmo posted:

    Don't tell that to the people that owned Kentucky Derby Winner Spectacular Bid... ;)

    SPECTACULAR BID (USA) grey. H, 30 Starts, 26 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $2,781,608

    And for Pina... a "Canadian Grey"... ADMIRALS EXPRESS... who has won more than $1,000,000... and has 60 wins in his career! (most at Woodbine & Mohawk raceways)

    [​IMG]

    Here is a link to an "ALL GREY HORSE" website... :)

    You must register/login in order to see the link.
     

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