KENTUCKY DERBY 2006 (May 6, 2006)

Close Your Eyes, Pick A Number

Nothing like waiting til the last minute is there? Well, I've been in there, lol. For some reason I thought I had already posted my pick(s) here? I must be losing it.

Okay, to win...... #5 Point Determined. Son of the great Point Given, showing improvement every race, finished only 3 lengths back of Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Handicap, has 3-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert as his trainer...and he should be double digit odds. I think he will love this distance, and may even want further than 1 1/4 miles.

(psssst) - I'm quietly cheering for Lawyer Ron as well, but don't bet favourites.

$1 Exactors ($15 Total Investment)

#5 Point Determined, #7 Bob and John and #17 Lawyer Ron (all to win)


#2 Steppenwolfer, #5 Point Determined, #7 Bob and John, #8 Barbaro, #17 Lawyer Ron and #19 Storm Treasure (all to come second)

May as well close your eyes and draw a number out of a hat this year. I think there are at least 9 or 10 legitimate horses in here, any one of them could win, and it wouldn't surprise me. Gonna have fun watching though. Back I go to lie down and get comfy. Good luck!! :thumbsup:

Ooops, almost forgot!! MrR.....Sweetnorthernsaint?'re probably gonna end up looking like a genius, lol. :D
Sorry, almost forgot....Soflat, thanks for posting your picks!!! Glad to see that someone besides MrR and myself got involved in this. I didn't give you the public thanks, but check your rep pts. :D
Yep, you might as well draw one out of hat. It is a tough one.

I had to drop a horse, so Lawyer Ron is out of my picks (still my emotional pick, just not my betting one).

So my three bets were on: Sinister Minister, Showing Up, and AP Warrior.

Then I decided Barbaro is the best 3-yo in the country and bought a ticket on him too.

I'm glad my account is empty, because I could just keep picking more horses otherwise.

We'll find out soon...
Not sure if anyone is interested, but I wrote a couple of things on the Derby for WinnerOnline, the second one is how I think the race will play out. Nothing like having everyone know what a terrible handicapper you are, lol.

Here's the links.

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Hope Bryan doesn't mind the links back to WOL? :D
Barbaro should never be discounted; he is 5 for 5 lifetime. You cannot argue with an undefeated horse that up to this point has done nothing wrong. By the day of the race, Barbaros last race will have been five weeks previous and is likely to be forgotten by many. That could be a huge oversight.

I wrote those words one week ago. I guess I should have listened to myself, lol.

I was really disappointed in the race overall. I've seen more hotly contested races run here at Woodbine by a bunch of claimers. Not to take anything away from Barbaro however, he looked awesome. All I can say is WOW!! Much the best horse, Edgar Prado never even touched him, he was just along for the ride. And the horse didn't even break a sweat. If he stays healthy, I won't be betting against him in the Preakness. He looked like a true champion today...and still undefeated.

Note to Soflat - WTG!!! You picked the winner, and you see who came second? Bluegrass that was a shocker. Too bad you didn't have that exactor, think it paid $586 or close to there.

Steppenwolfer closed for third, no surprise there at all. $11,000 triactor. Would have liked that one for a buck, lol.

1 1/4 Miles Dirt STAKES PURSE $2,000,000 Open
Value of Race 2213200 Value to Winner 1,453,200 2nd 400,000 3rd 200,000 4th 80,000 4th 80,000 Mutuel Pool $49,682,267.00 Exacta Pool $23,071,712.00 Trifecta Pool $27,062,557.00 Superfecta Pool $8,776,694.00 Superfecta Pool $.00

PN Horse M Eq Wt PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 1m Str Fin Jockey Odds
8 Barbaro L 126 8 41 1/2 41/2 13 13 14 16 1/2 Prado E S 6.10
13 Bluegrass Cat L 126 13 51/2 61/2 55 55 21/2 22 Dominguez R A 30.00
2 Steppenwolfer L 126 2 13hd 111/2 7hd 7hd 51 31 Albarado R J 16.30
1 DH-Jazil L c 126 1 20 191/2 172 172 61 41/2 Jara F 24.20
18 DH-Brother Derek L 126 18 91/2 141/2 10hd 10hd 71/2 41/2 Solis A 7.70
6 Showing Up L 126 6 3hd 3hd 41/2 41/2 31 1/2 63 Velasquez C 26.20
11 Sweetnorthernsaint L b 126 11 111 51/2 3hd 3hd 4hd 71 Desormeaux K J 5.50
14 Deputy Glitters L 126 14 151/2 161/2 91 91 101 81 1/4 Lezcano J 60.60
5 Point Determined L b 126 5 10hd 71 61/2 61/2 81/2 9hd Bejarano R 9.40
15 Seaside Retreat L 126 15 71 1/2 101/2 15hd 15hd 9hd 104 1/2 Husbands P 52.50
19 Storm Treasure L 126 19 182 13hd 12hd 12hd 111/2 111 3/4 Flores D R 51.90
17 Lawyer Ron L 126 17 81/2 9hd 81/2 81/2 121 1/2 12no McKee J 10.20
16 Cause to Believe L 126 16 192 20 184 184 172 133 Baze R A 25.90
20 Flashy Bull L c 126 20 17hd 171 141/2 141/2 151 142 1/2 Smith M E 43.00
12 Private Vow L 126 12 161/2 121/2 111/2 111/2 141 1/2 152 3/4 Bridgmohan S X 40.50
4 Sinister Minister L b 126 4 22 21 1/2 2hd 2hd 131 1/2 161 1/2 Espinoza V 9.70
7 Bob and John L b 126 7 121 8hd 161/2 161/2 161/2 17nk Gomez G K 12.90
10 A. P. Warrior L 126 10 141 181/2 195 195 195 181 1/2 Nakatani C S 14.10
9 Sharp Humor L 126 9 6hd 151 1/2 20 20 20 197 1/2 Guidry M 30.10
3 Keyed Entry L 126 3 12 11 1/2 13hd 13hd 182 1/2 20 Valenzuela P A 28.80

Off at 6:15 Start Good for all but Barbaro. Won Driving. Time , :22 3/5, :46, 1:10 4/5, 1:37, 2:01 1/5, Clear65. Track: Fast.

8 - Barbaro ...... 14.20 8.00 6.00
13 - Bluegrass Cat ...... 28.40 15.40
2 - Steppenwolfer ...... 7.80
$2 Exacta 8-13 Paid $587.00
$2 Trifecta 8-13-2 Paid $11418.40
$2 Superfecta 8-13-2-1 Paid $84860.40
$2 Superfecta 8-13-2-18 Paid $59839.00

BARBARO stumbled at the start, came up running and leaned in soon after bumping with BOB AND JOHN placing him in tight, raced under light restraint while between horses early, continued five or six wide around the first turn and into the backstretch, raced to the leaders under his own power midway on the far turn, reached the front at the five-sixteenths pole, accelerated quickly to a clear advantage approaching the stretch while angling near the inside, then drew off under under strong hand urging as much the best. BLUEGRASS CAT, never far back, maneuvered nicely between foes to reach the rail entering the first turn, followed BARBARO while just inside that one on the backstretch, angled outside the winner nearing the final quarter, then couldn't menace at the end while clearly second best. STEPPENWOLFER, bumped after the start by KEYED ENTRY and forced in, saved ground in hand, rallied between horses three or four wide on the far turn, lacked room at the five-sixteenths pole, worked his way out six wide when straightened into the stretch to make his run, loomed a threat through the upper stretch, then failed to sustain his bid while drifting out slightly. JAZIL swerved in at the start, was unhurried while outrun for six furlongs, continued to save ground while rallying along the rail on the far turn, angled out between foes four wide when entering the upper stretch to make a serious bid but failed to sustain his effort while dead heating with BROTHER DEREK for fourth. BROTHER DEREK worked his way in six wide by the first turn, moved out wider when the field bunched nearing the end of the backstretch where he was steadied twice, fanned out nine abreast when making a run into the upper stretch, but came up empty while finishing evenly with JAZIL for fourth. SHOWING UP bobbled at the break, came out bumping with BOB AND JOHN, gained a forward position near the inside, went along under careful handling, raced between foes four wide nearing the final quarter, was just off the winner briefly when entering the stretch and flattened out in the drive. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, steadied when bumped at the start by A.P. WARRIOR and forced out on PRIVATE VOW, was steadied again under the wire the first time in tight quarters, worked his way between foes around the first turn, angled inside on the backstretch, boldly came through close quarters along the rail at the five-sixteenths pole, but faltered when straightened for the drive. DEPUTY GLITTERS, outrun five wide into the backstretch, inched forward around the far turn, came out eleven wide for the drive, leaned in and bumped SEASIDE REATREAT at the furlong grounds, then lacked a further response. POINT DETERMINED, bobbled lightly at the start, was well placed near the inside from the outset, moved between horses five wide into the lane, came out and bumped with SEASIDE RETREAT at the eighth pole and was finished. SEASIDE RETREAT, unhurried and six wide, reached striking distance on the far turn, came out wider entering the stretch, was bumped from both sides at the eighth pole and had no further account. STORM TREASURE, steadied behind horses nearing the first turn, made a mild move between rivals approaching the final quarter but failed to continue. LAWYER RON, well placed early, raced between foes around the first turn, was steadied entering the backstretch, continued within striking distance until the stretch and tired. CAUSE TO BELIEVE never reached contention. FLASHY BULL broke awkwardly and raced wide most of the way. PRIVATE VOW, sluggish to start, was bumped soon after by SWEETNORTHERNSAIT and steadied, then never was a factor. SINISTER MINISTER vied for the lead soon after start while battling outside of KEYED ENTRY, surrendered the advantage to that one just before the opening quarter expired, tracked KEYED ENTRY to the far turn, briefly gained the lead between calls approaching the stretch, lost it to the winner after several strides and faded. BOB AND JOHN, bumped at the start by SHOWING UP, then steadied soon after and bumped again when BARBARO leaned in, was finished after seven furlongs. A. P. WARRIOR came out at the start bumping SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, then was finished early. SHARP HUMOR came out after the start bumping A.P. WARRIOR, faded after a half, bore out midway on the second turn and wasn't abused in the drive. KEYED ENTRY leaned in at the start bumping STEPPENWOLFER, went up inside SINISTER MINISTER to fight for the lead, gained a slight edge after going a quarter, was clear on the first turn, showed the way to the far turn and gave way readily after seven furlongs.
Thanks Pina!!

I bet on the race today - online - and I won $237!!! Not bad for a beginner. My Hubby bet at OTB in Iowa and he picked the two that thought they were in a parade - not a race - LOL! But then he hit Keno at the local watering hole for $265 - so it was a good day for both.

So when is the next race - two weeks? Preakness??

I'm just leaving the $$ in my account and use it for the next race(s).

Hope you keep us informed on the next races too.

Hey Nina, that's cool. Glad to hear it. Yep, we'll get something together for the Preakness.....won't we MrR? :D

I'm going to Montreal on Monday the 15th, but will be back at the puter by the 18th, and the race is on the 20th, so we'll post something. So are you saying that the bullshit MrR and I posted actually helped you? Ha, ha, ha... :p
This could be the year!!

I would have made a lot more if my longshots came in, but this was actually the best outcome in my opinion because Barbaro is a legitimate threat to sweep the Triple Crown.

With a field this large, there is a question as to how much he benefited from from bad post positions and traffic problems of some top contenders.

But Barbaro really did look like a champion as he waltzed home with plenty left in the tank after stalking close behind a solid pace.

For me, Bluegrass Cat was the biggest surprise. That horse was my top early pick this year, but he really disappointed me when he couldn't completely dominate the horses at Tampa.

This has been quite an undertaking. JohnSteed, I don't know how you do it, simply amazing. It should be alot of fun for me to come back to these original posts after May 6th and see how far off I was and how much crow I have to eat. Given my present run of luck (or lack of), a good betting strategy may be to take every horse I've tossed, and box them on an exotic ticket, lol. Best of luck to all!!​
WOW........what a great piece of work Pina. I was just browsing thru some posts with the BELMONT coming up and ran across this most impressive post, no other words to describe than WOW.......such a joy to read and the memories it stirred up for me caused me to go searching for my keepsake , no not a winning ticket,damn:D but a reminder of one great day thanks to Harrah's and Caesars (still need to attend an Indy 500 and I will be complete,:what:).........WOW AGAIN AND THANKS FOR THE TERRIFIC READ.............I did find my keepsake thanks to you:​
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I like....

I think hard spun and Curlin have the best chances to win... Although rags to riches has a slim outside shot of pulling an upset...But I got to think that Curlin and Hardspun will both get our front and it come down to the wire...Should be a good one and I can't wait to watch it....:thumbsup:
Well, who went and dredged up this year old thread? LOL.....thanks Nash, I worked on this for a long time. Wish I could have done the same for this year's Derby.

Re: your invitation. I am SOOOO jealous. That is one of my dreams. To be at Churchill on Derby Day. Thanks for posting that, you lucky barstard!! So did you get to see Barbaro then? Was he as imposing looking in person (?) as he was on tv? Such a sad story.

Tdoggy, I think you're probably right about Curlin..not so sure if Hardspun can go 1 1/2 miles on the front end though. Plus he was used pretty hard in both the Derby and the Preakness. Curlin, now he looked like he could run all day, lol.

I sort of lose interest once the potential of a Triple Crown Winner has been removed. I'll probably still watch, but don't really care all that much, lol. It will depend if I'm still alive in my poker tourney, or if I've been eliminated.
i was Dead wrong....

Wow a Philly won??? When is the last time that happened? 1900's???? I was stunned.... Rags to Rices beats Curlin down the stretch... And Hard Spun didn't do to well at all.... Well thats gambling for ya... What did Rags to Riches go off at 3-1???? Wow what a race and what a win for a Philly!!!! :D

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