KENTUCKY DERBY 2006 (May 6, 2006)

The Florida Derby goes today at 5:40 p.m. EST, and Barbaro is entered and is the morning line favourite at 8-5. He has drawn post position number 10 in the eleven horse field. Barbaro is 4 for 4 lifetime, and this 1 1/8 mile race should be a good test for him. Also entered is Flashy Bull, morning line of 4-1. Another one I was watching just because he is a son of Holy Bull. I'm pretty upset though, I went and checked my tv listings and this race is not being shown up here. Grrrrrrr......I really wish TV networks would devote more airtime to horseracing, especially at this time of year. Makes me wish I still had The Racing Network. Now I will have to wait until the race is over and find a replay to watch.
 
Barbaro Wins The Florida Derby

Barbaro captures Florida Derby

Hallandale, FL (Sports Network) - Barbaro, ridden by Edgar Prado, out- fought Sharp Humor down the stretch to win Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. The win establishes Barbaro as the current favorite for the Kentucky Derby on May 6.

Breaking from post 10 in the 11-horse field, Barbaro broke well and joined Sharp Humor on the lead. Sharp Humor, with Mark Guidry riding, set the pace with Barbaro just off his right shoulder.

Prado allowed Barbaro to begin to edge closer to the leader around the turn for home. At the top of the stretch Sharp Humor held a slight lead with Barbaro to his outside.

It was not until deep stretch that Barbaro took the lead and went on to win by a half-length over Sharp Humor. Sunriver finished third followed by Sam's Ace, Hesanoldsalt, High Blues, Flashy Bull, Charming Image, Saint Augustus, Doc Cheney and Rehoboth.

The time for the 1 1/8 miles was 1:49.01 on a fast track.

Owned by Lael Stables, Barbaro remains undefeated in his five career starts and collects $600,000 with the Florida Derby victory. The colt has earned a total of $849,000. Barbaro is trained by former Olympic equestrian rider Michael Matz.

Barbaro returned $5.20, $3.60 and $2.80. Sharp Humor paid $5.80 and $3.80, and Sunriver paid $3.60 for show.

An important race on the road to the Run for the Roses, the last Florida Derby winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Monarchos in 2001. In 2003 Empire Maker was second to Funny Cide at Churchill Downs and then won the Belmont Stakes.



So, one of my original picks is looking mighty fine.....although if he IS the favourite come raceday, I doubt very much I would bet him. Sure is hard to ignore an unbeaten horse though. There are still some decent races to come, not the least of which is the Santa Anita Derby next weekend.
 
Pina... just an interesting sidenote to what you posted... the bottom paragraph...

the last Florida Derby winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Monarchos in 2001. In 2003 Empire Maker was second to Funny Cide at Churchill Downs and then won the Belmont Stakes.

Funny Cide raced today... 3 years after his Derby win in 2003... at Aqueduct, and finished 2nd! Still a classy horse!

5 West Virginia 17.40 8.30 4.70
4 Funny Cide 6.50 3.60
2 Colita 3.10
 
Thanks Mrracetrack...that is interesting. Did you ever notice how few horses who run in and win any of the Triple Crown races actually continue racing after their three year old season is over? It seems that so many get retired to stud duty (not the worst thing in the world I guess, lol) right after the season is over. Capitalizing on the Triple Crown win I guess? Thanks for that though, nice to see a past winner still performing.

And I haven't been able to find a replay of the Florida Derby as yet, not a free one anyway. I want to see the race, as I want to see how much effort Barbaro had to put forth to get the win.

Which reminds me I have to get that link for the Rebel, so you can watch Lawyer Ron's win. Impressed the shit out of me that's for sure. I'll be back. :)
 
Lawyer Ron in The Rebel

Okay, here we go... I just watched it again. I signed up (it's free) so I can watch all the replays, but I think they let you watch one before they make you sign up. I thought this win was really impressive. The acceleration the horse showed just before the final turn is exactly what I look for in a Derby horse. And he did give him a few cracks of the whip to get him going, but once he picked up speed he kept accelerating. And when he galloped out after, he looked like he could have gone another furlong or two, lol. Maybe I'm seeing things that aren't there, and not really sure what he beat, but he looked good doing it.

And a sidenote....the headline on the website is "Barbaro Earns Hard Fought Florida Derby Victory". It's that hard-fought that worries me. On one hand it shows he knows how to win, and has determination. On the other hand, how much did it take out of him, and is he gonna bounce next race out? He had been off for eight weeks, so with the Derby five weeks away, that would be his second race off the layoff. Hmmmm.....so many things to consider, lol.

Here's the link to the Rebel...

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Simmo! said:
It was also the era of "Lochsong" - a horse that was just incredible to watch over 6f (or was it 5f?). Frankie Dettori just had to mount it (in a nice way!)...could have had his tea and a sandwich while he was up there for all he had to do. Not that he'd have had time mind! It just lifted off the ground and romped away with every Group 1 going. I'm sure it either had wheels attached to the underbelly or was a new breed of "hover-horse"!

Ah well...May 6th...its in my diary :)

Funny you should mention Frankie Dettori (awesome jockey btw) Simmo. I just watched a replay of the UAE Derby from last weekend, in which Discreet Cat was the winner. You wanna talk about him having time for a smoke and a drink (okay tea and a sandwich, lol), this victory looked like a walk in the park. Frankie was just along for the ride, lol. Wonder if he'll come over here to ride him in the Derby? He looked amazing, but I have a problem betting horses that have shipped from overseas, and especially from the Middle East. They're nervous animals, and that long flight, and the change in climate and running surfaces often takes a huge toll on them. Would have liked to have seen a race like that over here.
 
Florida Derby

barbaro_200x137_040106.jpg

Barbaro defeats Sharp Humor by a
half-length in Saturday's Grade 1
Florida Derby. He will now move
on to Louisville undefeated.


BARBARO bobbled and bumped with CHARMING IMAGE at the start, moved up to prompt the pace outside SHARP HUMOR, made a run to reach near even terms for command midway of the far turn, then wore that rival down in a long drive to be up late. SHARP HUMOR quickly moved to fore, made the pace along the rail into the far turn, responded when challenged by BARBARO and continued on gamely while unable to resist that rival off late.

Posted by Pina...
And a sidenote....the headline on the website is "Barbaro Earns Hard Fought Florida Derby Victory". It's that hard-fought that worries me. On one hand it shows he knows how to win, and has determination. On the other hand, how much did it take out of him, and is he gonna bounce next race out? He had been off for eight weeks, so with the Derby five weeks away, that would be his second race off the layoff.

This was a good tightener for Barbaro... he got bumped at the start (which in a large Derby field is likely to happen to a few horses) he was tested by a horse today, and dug in to win... he gained some good experience in this race... the only question will be can he maintain his sharpness over the next 5 weeks.

Thanks for the link to the replay of the Lawyer Ron race, Pina. :thumbsup:

I agree with you that it was a very impressive race, although the competition he faced was far less than he will have in the KY.Derby... but the way he won was very similiar to the way he will need to race in the Derby... and that style seems to fit him well. He had plenty left at the finish... and looks like he should easily handle the extra distance of the Derby.

Although with 5 weeks remaining before the Derby... and a few prep races still to come... I do not have a strong opinion yet on who I like to win... but both Lawyer Ron and Barbaro have certainly been impressive... and will be added to my "mental list" I'll be making over the next few weeks to try and come up with the Derby Winner! ;)
 
Remaining Prep Races

These are the major KY Derby prep races that remain:

4/8 SA Santa Anita Derby-G1 1 1/8m
4/8 Haw Illinois Derby-G2 1 1/8m
4/8 Aqu Wood Memorial-G1 1 1/8m
4/15 OP Arkansas Derby-G2 1 1/8m
4/15 Kee Blue Grass Stakes-G1 1 1/8m
4/22 Kee Lexington Stakes-G2 1 1/16m
4/29 Aqu Withers Stakes-G3 1m
4/29 CD Derby Trial-G3 1m


The results of the Wood Memorial and the Arkansas Derby will make the Derby focus a lot clearer.
 
Thanks Mrracetrack!! I absolutely agree with you. At least the Wood Memorial is on TV here this weekend. Nothing like watching a race live...although once I got feeling a bit better on the weekend, I spent a couple of hours watching replays of the last four or five races of all the contenders, trying to get a feel for them.

That victory in the FD for Barbaro was indeed hard-fought....it was a battle all the way, and pretty decent fractions too (if I remember, they're all becoming a blur, lol). No doubt a character builder, and the horse looks tough. Taking nothing from Sharp Humour either, hell of a race he put forth. I'll be keeping an eye out for Barbaro's next published work as well, sometimes an indicator (length, time, B or H). If you haven't signed up for that Kentucky Derby 2006 site, it's worth it just for the replays.

This weekend and next will be really interesting, that's for sure.
 
Santa Anita Derby Preview...

HORSE RACING

Five rivals take shot at Brother Derek
COLT'S BLAZING WORKOUT LEAVES JOCKEY 'AMAZED'
By Beth Harris
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Santa Anita Derby

ARCADIA, Calif. - Brother Derek was installed as the 3-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, where only five other 3-year-old colts will challenge him.

Brother Derek was assigned the No. 2 post at yesterday's draw. He has won five of seven career starts, including three in a row.

"You always hope to get a horse that just keeps improving. Each week, each race, he's done that," trainer Dan Hendricks said.

A victory in the 11/8-mile West Coast prep would solidify Brother Derek's status as the favorite for the May 6 Kentucky Derby.

"The overall plan has always been to get there," Hendricks said. "Luckily, we've been improving and he's doing well. Once we get through Saturday and everything goes well, we'll start planning on from there."

A.P. Warrior, winner of the San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago, drew the No. 1 post and is second choice at 7-2. He's trained by John Shirreffs, who saddled Giacomo to an upset victory in last year's Kentucky Derby.

Point Determined was made the 4-1 third choice and will break from the far outside. Trainer Bob Baffert is seeking a record fifth Santa Anita Derby victory.

Point Determined's sire is Point Given, the 2001 Santa Anita Derby winner who won the Preakness and Belmont that year after finishing fifth to Monarchos in the Kentucky Derby.

Heavy rain hit Santa Anita for the second straight day yesterday. The extended forecast calls for clear skies starting today.

"Track condition is going to play a major part," Baffert said. "Some horses are going to love it, some aren't."

The race also will go a long way toward deciding who stays on or falls off the Triple Crown trail.

"Brother Derek is definitely the best horse I've seen this year," Baffert said. "We're going to find out if we belong. We're hoping to run 1-2-3, be close to him. That will be the telltale sign if we belong in the Kentucky Derby."

Brother Derek's 5-furlong workout in 1:00.20 on Sunday was still being buzzed about three days later.

"It was very amazing," said jockey Alex Solis, who was aboard. "Every week that goes by, he keeps amazing me more and more."

Sacred Light, second to Brother Derek in the Santa Catalina Stakes a month ago, will start in the No. 5 post at early odds of 9-2.

"Although Brother Derek will be the lone speed, at some point you always get pressure in a race," said Aaron Gryder, Sacred Light's jockey. "Whether we catch him or not, it's about this horse moving forward, it's about him learning a little bit more, and I think he's going to do that."

The two long shots are 30-1 Indy Wildcat (No. 4 post) and 50-1 Wildfang (No. 3 post).
 
Brother Derek's 5-furlong workout in 1:00.20 on Sunday was still being buzzed about three days later.

Would you be buzzing about that Mrracetrack? It's a nice work, but buzzing? Was it B or H? I remember picking a maiden winner years ago at Santa Anita who had worked 4 furlongs five days previous to his race in :46B!!!! I thought it was a typo, but checked the form and the program and the track works. It was legit. And he went off at about 25-1, ha ha. Cleaned up that day.

Do you like Brother Derek? I watched his past races and gotta admit he looks pretty damn good, but I'm always looking for someone to beat the favourite. And I guess you know who I'm rooting for in the SA Derby? This one won't be on TV for me. :mad:
 
Brother Derek's Workout...

No, Pina... I wouldn't be making any "big deal" over that work... it wasn't even the fastest of the day... A bunch of horses went faster... including Point Determined, with Citibrat the fastest of the morning.

Battle Born 1:00.60 H 17
Bella Bolchina :59.60 H 5
Bound for Seattle 1:03.40 H 46
Brass In Pocket (NZ) 1:00.80 H 19
Brother Derek 1:00.20 B 9
Bullish Yield 1:01.60 H 34
Citibrat :59.00 H 1
Convenient Marquet 1:03.00 H 44
Evaluate (IRE) :59.80 H 6
Four More Years 1:02.00 H 37
Fourstarimage 1:03.40 H 46
Hello Fame :59.20 H 2
Hemet Humor 1:00.80 HG 19
Hickory (CHI) :59.40 H 3
Point Determined :59.80 H 6


I think after the SA Derby it will be a bit easier to consider Brother Derek's chances of winning the KY Derby.

I will also be looking at Point Determined to see how he does. I am starting to like that horse... ;)

Pina... don't you get NBC? The race is being televised on that station...

Television: Saturday, 5-6 p.m. Eastern, NBC
 
Oh really? NBC??? Woo hoo, lol. I know the Wood is on TV....I'm sure I looked it up. My mind's becoming a blur, lol. So they'll both be on then...guess I know what I'm doing Saturday.

Thanks for clarifying the works for me. Okay, so it was breezing, but still... See, that kind of hype gets people all worked up, lol. So you're starting to like Point Determined? I just got this feeling, don't know why. But you're absolutely right...gotta see the race first. That's a nice tightening work for Point Determined though, and I loved his last race against A.P. Warrior, he may just start to be coming into his own. I sort of wish that Baffert would get him a different jock though.....can't say I'm a huge Garrett Gomez fan (it is Gomez right?). Well, he starts from the outside this time so no trip excuses. I am looking forward to Saturday!!! :D
 
Horses To Watch Today

Santa Anita Derby

Brother Derek (Alex Solis) 3-5
A.P. Warrior (Corey Nakatani) 7-2
Point Determined (Rafael Bejarano) 4-1

This will be the best and most interesting race of the day for me, even with only six entrants. A test for Brother Derek to see if he is as good as all the hype. And a chance for me to see if I'm even close to being right about Point Determined. Note the jockey change on Point Determined from Garrett Gomez to Rafael Bejarano, more on this in the next post. Point Determined had a horrible trip in his last race, was stuck down along the rail for the whole race and Gomez tried to take him out and then back in and lost some precious ground. Considering the horse only lost by a narrow margin to A.P. Warrior, it was very costly.

Wood Memorial

Bob and John (Garrett Gomez) 2-1
Keyed Entry (Edgar Prado) 5-2
Deputy Glitters (?) 7-2

Another jockey change here on another Baffert horse. Bob and John loses Victor Espinoza and picks up Garrett Gomez. Not sure I understand this one, but I guess that's why Bob Baffert is a millionaire and I'm not. Bob and John was a beaten favourite in his last race and was taken five wide into the stretch. It's quite possible that Baffert wasn't happy with Espinoza, or he may just be trying to find the right jockey/horse combo for Point Determined and Bob and John.

Illinois Derby

Sweetnorthernsaint - Kent Desormeaux
Cause To Believe - Russell Baze
Racketeer - Patrick Valenzuela

I'm interested in this race only to see how Cause To Believe performs. He was one of my wildcard/longshot horses back in my original posts. If he has a good race, I may be throwing him into the mix on May 6th.
 
Serious Jockey Shortage?

I mentioned in a previous post how sad it was that the racing world lost Pat Day, Jerry Bailey and Gary Stevens all in the same year, all to retirement. And there's no Chris McCarron, Mike Smith or Shane Sellers either, just to name a few. The real impact of this didn't hit me until the last few days when I realized who is left to choose from. Here's my top three of who is still riding.

Edgar Prado - Probably my favourite of the three. Prado is the regular rider of Barbaro, Keyed Entry, First Samurai and Strong Contender....all Derby possibles/probables. He can't ride four horses and is going to have to make a choice and soon. Three of these horses are going to need another jockey, and as you read on, you'll see there's not alot left to choose from. Prado rides Keyed Entry today in the Wood and dependent on that one's performance, I think he'll be choosing between him and Barbaro. I have a pretty strong feeling that he'll be going with Barbaro, barring any unforeseen injuries/scratches, etc. In any event, he's taken.

Alex Solis - Always loved this guy, superb jockey. But he is the regular rider of Brother Derek and there is no way he's giving up this mount unless some catastrophe occurs.

Corey Nakatani - He is the regular rider of A.P. Warrior, and again unless A.P. Warrior scratches, he's taken. Funnily enough, although Nakatani is one of the all-time leading/high profile riders, I've never cared for him. He gets results, but he's never been one of my faves. The only exception was his win on Lit de Justice in the 1996 Breeders Cup Sprint here at Woodbine. That was what I consider to be one of the most brilliant rides by any jockey I have ever seen.

So what does that leave us with? In no particular order these are the jockeys that I personally consider to be the best of who's left -

Kent Desormeaux - riding Sweetnorthernsaint today in the Illinois Derby. If this horse doesn't make it to the Kentucky Derby, Desormeaux may become available, and if I were a trainer, I'd be snapping him up. Hello Bob Baffert, are you listening?

Victor Espinoza - was the regular rider on Bob and John, but Bob Baffert has removed him and replaced him with Garrett Gomez for today's Wood Memorial. Bob and John was one of my early choices, but not with Garrett Gomez in the irons. Whatcha doin Baffert?

Jeremy Rose - is the regular rider of Great Point, who is a possible for the Derby, and I stress possible. I'm not sure where he is running next, but dependent on that race Rose may be available come Derby day. This kid is brilliant, absolutely an outstanding jockey and has been since his apprentice year. I'd be down on my knees begging him to ride my horse if I had one. And Mr. Baffert, young Jeremy would look awesome on Point Determined.

John Velazquez - is the regular rider of Bluegrass Cat, another Derby possible, although I don't see him making it there. If Velazquez becomes available he will be snapped up pretty quickly I'm sure.

Patrick Valenzuela - is riding Racketeer today in the Illinois Derby. I highly doubt that Racketeer will make it to Louisville though, so Valenzuela may be free. Despite his highly publicized and sad battle with cocaine addiction (and multiple suspensions), you can't ignore his natural talent and I'd be willing to take a chance on him if I were a trainer....and pray that he can keep his nose clean (pun intended).

I was going to add Jorge Chavez to the list here, but am not even sure if he's still riding or not? Maybe Mrracetrack would know? Another very good and capable jockey IMO.

So with a possible twenty horses starting in the Derby, you can see there is a serious jockey shortage. Lots of jockeys out there, but not with the kind of experience and capabilities and nerve that this race requires. Not in my opinion anyway. The Kentucky Derby is a jockey's race, just as much as it is a horse race. I would hate to be a trainer right now with a horse headed to the Derby, unless you've got one of the top three committed to you. I'd really hate to be the trainer of the three "other" horses that Prado will have to decline the ride on. They are going to be left scrambling when he makes his final decision. And as much as I like and respect Bob Baffert, I cannot figure out his strategy. He has replaced Garrett Gomez with Rafael Bejarano on Point Determined for today's race. Both of them are regular riders for him, but with Victor Espinoza available, why not use him instead? And why did he remove Espinoza as the rider for Bob and John to begin with? And replace him with Garrett Gomez? Espinoza is Baffert's top rider, shouldn't he be on at least one of Baffert's horses today? I don't get it. Anyway, just some more points to ponder..and some more variables to consider in picking a horse. My final choice will certainly be influenced by who the rider will be.

I'm praying that young Jeremy becomes available for the race, and that some trainer sees the value in having him ride. What he pulled off in last year's Preakness aboard Afleet Alex should prove his worth to any trainer.

Mrracetrack, I'd be interested to see if you agree with me about the jockey situation this year....and if you have anyone else that I've maybe overlooked who should be added onto the list of top remaining jockeys? I'm sure there must be at least one or two, and I bet you have some favourites that I haven't even thought of. Looking forward to any comments you may have. :)
 
Eating My Words

I'll comment more later on the actual races themselves....but I think I owe Garrett Gomez an apology. Masterful ride today on Bob and John (and on Too Much Bling in the Bayshore). Bob and John won the Wood Memorial (woo hoo, one of my early picks). Gomez sat just off of Keyed Entry (the favourite) for the majority of the race and timed his move perfectly. Very nice ride indeed. Still not the same as riding in a 20 horse field, but nice nonetheless. I guess the Silver Fox (Baffert) knows what he's doing after all eh? His horses only made close to a million dollars today, standard day for Bob. :D

One interesting note.....Baffert chose to go to Aqueduct for the Wood (and the Bayshore) as opposed to staying home for the Santa Anita Derby where Point Determined was running. There's probably a message in there somewhere, lol.
 
Last edited:
Wood Memorial... Santa Anita Derby... and Jockeys...

Pina... that was a GREAT post about the jockeys... interesting to read... well thought out... and very insightful... NICE JOB!! :notworthy

There isn't a thing I could possibly add to that... you pretty much covered it all... :thumbsup: (and I totally agree with what you stated)

But I can comment on today's races... ;)

The Wood Memorial... Bob and John... VERY impressive... stalked... challenged... took the lead and drew off. Certainly raised his stock today.
His chances in the Derby will improve if it's an off track at Churchill on Derby Day. The only concern I see for him is he will need to avoid traffic in the Derby.

Keyed Entry... a disappointing race for him. Prado didn't even try to save second, as he got nailed at the wire by the fast closing Jazil.

The Santa Anita Derby... Brother Derek... much the best today. Since he was never challenged in the race... it's hard to get a good read on just how good he may be.

Point Determined... no match for the winner... but clearly second best. Should like the added distance in the KY Derby.

A.P. Warrior... good trip... had nothing when it mattered. A disappointment. Can't see him doing a thing if he races in the Derby.

The Illinois Derby... Sweetnorthernsaint... Impressive win... but he didn't really beat much... and the Illinois Derby isn't known as a "springboard" to the KY Derby. None of the others in that race did anything to impress me at all. I'll be looking elsewhere for my Derby selection.
 
Blast from the past...

Pina stated:

The only exception was his win on Lit de Justice in the 1996 Breeders Cup Sprint here at Woodbine. That was what I consider to be one of the most brilliant rides by any jockey I have ever seen.

I have that race on tape! (I have the whole card from that day)

That was an amazing stretch run... last to first! I loved the announcers call as Lit de Justice was flying through the stretch... "A GREY BLUR!!"

Here is a link for Lit de Justice...
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Also very impressive that day in 1996 was Alphabet Soup. ;)

Note to SIMMO... both the above mentioned Breeders Cup Winners were... GREY!! :D
 
In Total Agreement

mrracetrack said:
Pina... that was a GREAT post about the jockeys... interesting to read... well thought out... and very insightful... NICE JOB!! :notworthy

There isn't a thing I could possibly add to that... you pretty much covered it all... :thumbsup: (and I totally agree with what you stated)

Thanks Mrracetrack. :)

Just a couple of notes....I agree with your comments on Keyed Entry, and even though Prado has come out and said that it's almost for sure he will ride Barbaro in the Derby, I don't think the trainer of Keyed Entry needs to look for a replacement jockey. That horse ain't going 1 1/4 miles. In addition, I don't think that Kent Desormeaux will be available as I'm sure that Sweetnorthernsaint will be heading to the Derby given his win yesterday. Totally agree he beat nothing, but I still think they'll send him. I also think that Corey Nakatani may become available because based on yesterday's performance, A.P. Warrior does not belong in the Derby. And I think that Baffert may just leave Gomez on Bob and John, they seem to fit well together. Which means that IF he sends Point Determined, maybe he'll put Espinoza on him? I can't see him sending him with Bejarano, but hey, I could be wrong. :oops:

Mrracetrack said:
But I can comment on today's races... ;)

The Wood Memorial... Bob and John... VERY impressive... stalked... challenged... took the lead and drew off. Certainly raised his stock today.
His chances in the Derby will improve if it's an off track at Churchill on Derby Day. The only concern I see for him is he will need to avoid traffic in the Derby.

Keyed Entry... a disappointing race for him. Prado didn't even try to save second, as he got nailed at the wire by the fast closing Jazil.

The Santa Anita Derby... Brother Derek... much the best today. Since he was never challenged in the race... it's hard to get a good read on just how good he may be.

Point Determined... no match for the winner... but clearly second best. Should like the added distance in the KY Derby.

A.P. Warrior... good trip... had nothing when it mattered. A disappointment. Can't see him doing a thing if he races in the Derby.

The Illinois Derby... Sweetnorthernsaint... Impressive win... but he didn't really beat much... and the Illinois Derby isn't known as a "springboard" to the KY Derby. None of the others in that race did anything to impress me at all. I'll be looking elsewhere for my Derby selection

I agree with every single comment you made!!! Most impressed by Bob and John, especially given the fact he was a late foal, and won't even be three until May 17th. He's still learning, and I thought that was a gutsy performance, given the fractions and the track condition. I also liked the fact that he won on a different track than California....shows some versatility. I'm especially happy that this horse was my original early choice back when I first started this thread. Liking him more and more. As for Keyed Entry, I said back then also I didn't think this horse could get the distance and it looks like that is the case. He has neither the running style nor the stamina for the Derby. Now that Jazil....wtf?? Where the hell did he come from? That one could be dangerous come Derby day if there is a hot, contested pace up front.

The Santa Anita Derby.....just like you said. Brother Derek looked like he was on the track for a workout. I hate races like that, I don't think you get a fair rating of ANY of the horses. If you go with him, you burn yourself out....if you let him get away, he 's gone. And besides Point Determined and A.P. Warrior (who looked horrible) what did he beat? A maiden with lifetime earnings of $6,600 and a horse who went to his knees out of the starting gate. I haven't totally given up on Point Determined...there was a few things to like in the race...the fact that he stayed fairly close throughout and that even though clearly beaten, he did not give up. I even thought that he may have quickened in the last 1/16th? Not sure if he actually did or if A.P. Warrior just packed it in totally, but it looked to me like he lengthened his stride. My take on him was that he is green, and he actually may be a bit lazy. Some horses can't wait to run, and some have to be "encouraged", lol. Sure looked to me like Bejarano had to really get into him to get him going. I agree that the extra furlong of the Derby could only help him. And I'm thinking he may like the Belmont even more. I guess we'll see what Baffert decides to do with him. One thing I noticed about Brother Derek is that he seemed to get awfully hot before the race, but when galloping out after, he looked sweat-free? Can't say that I've ever seen that before. And I would have liked to have seen Brother Derek run somewhere besides his home track.

As to the Illinois Derby, you are so right. Sweetnorthernsaint looked very impressive, but beat absolutely nothing while doing it. I guess I can scratch off Cause To Believe who had been my wildcard horse...hoping he may have shown me something, but there was nothing there but a very beaten horse.

I pretty much have my list down to about five horses, I am just waiting for Lawyer Ron to run next weekend so I can see what he does. I can't get that victory in the Rebel out of my mind, but it is a bit reminiscent of the Illinois Derby. He really didn't beat anything. What I do like though is that Lawyer Ron has always been a frontrunner and for that Rebel win, they held him back and brought him from off the pace. A test I'm sure, which he passed with flying colours. That is the style he will have to employ if he does run in the Derby. And he is my sentimental choice, being the son of Langfuhr. My biggest concern is distance.

So I'd say that after next weekend, we should be pretty close to our picks Mrracetrack. Only thing to really watch after that is their workouts, which should never be overlooked (IMO). And I see that Mike Battaglia who sets the morning line odds for Churchill said that Brother Derek will be the morning line favourite with Barbaro second choice. Another reason for me to look for someone to beat him, lol.
 
1996 Breeder's Cup

You have that on tape??? Wow, would I love a copy of that, lol. You gotta agree, that was a masterful ride by Nakatani. He didn't just go last to first by charging up the outside. He wove in and out and in and out, like a reckless driver on the freeway at rush hour. It still stands out in my mind. Thanks for the link to the Lit De Justice page Mrracetrack. What an imposing looking animal he is. You see the muscle in his hindquarters? :eek2: Did you see his track record at Del Mar......7F in 1:20 :eek: :eek: Also notable from his win was the fact that he had a female trainer (Jenine Sahadi). Only woman to win a Breeder's Cup race, to this day even (I think)?

And yes, I remember Alphabet Soup also....he beat Cigar that day. I had been hoping that Cigar could win the Classic yet again, but no cigar, lol. That was such a great day here at Woodbine, sure wish they'd bring it back again.

Oh, and Simmo, there was another grey winner yesterday. Baffert's other horse, Too Much Bling, won the Bayshore sprinting 7F in most impressive style. I believe he's actually the top sprinter in the country right now. So grey horses can run, no doubt about it.
 
Arkansas Derby & Bluegrass Stakes...

These are pretty much the last two prep races that matter, as to looking for the Kentucky Derby winner... ;)

Both these races will be televised on ABC at 5:00pm EDT today.

My Picks... :)

Arkansas Derby... Lawyer Ron... possible upsetter... Steppenwolfer

Bluegrass... Strong Contender... possible upsetter... Storm Treasure



A capsule look at both these races from the Daily Racing Form writers:




Keeneland - Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
By BYRON KING


Little Cliff
Zito has been high on him for quite some time, and while he hasn't yet placed in a stakes race, he has shown steady Beyer improvement; additionally, Zito is on a roll here, this one is drawn on the fence, and horses that last raced at Tampa are 5 for 16 here through Wednesday.

Bluegrass Cat
His stock dropped with a loss in the Tampa Bay Derby to Deputy Glitters, a colt that was subsequently sixth in a sloppy Wood; the thinking here is that race wasn't all that bad; he earned a career-best 99 Beyer, and he reportedly lost a shoe in the race; through Wed., horses that last raced at Tampa are 16-5-1-2 here with a $7.08 ROI - suggesting Tampa form is underrated by the public; choice.

Storm Treasure
Again, horses that last raced at Tampa are 16-5-1-2 this meet with a $7.08 ROI; they tend to be dangerous longshots; Asmussen must really think a great deal of this horse to try the G1 Bluegrass with a N1X eligible runner; Guidry takes over in the irons - Bridgmohan, Asmussen's current go-to jockey, is riding Private Vow Sat. in the Ark Derby.

Strong Contender
A win gives him enough graded earnings to get into the Derby that is likely to be oversubscribed, a 2nd-place finish puts him on the bubble; the sales topper at the Kee 2YOs in training sale last year, he is a gifted horse who has done nothing wrong in two starts; he is giving up considerable experience, however; and remember that his schedule has been interrupted due to missing a start in the Lane's End when excluded due to limited earnings.

First Samurai
The move to traditionally speed-biased Kee should aid this two-time G1 winner - all 6 dirt races Wed were won wire to wire; still have doubts; he didn't accelerate like he should have in the FOY after racing loose on the lead; he was 7-10 odds, and had a perfect trip for the first 6f of the race; he appeared to fight in the late going - but that may have been visually deceptive due to Corinthian playing around once he made the lead.

Court Folly
That third in the Swale looks good - with Sharp Humor, the Swale winner, coming back to finish a close 2nd to Barbaro in the Fla Derby; that noted, this horse has been a come-from-behind sprinter to this point; he faded in his lone start going two turns; prefer those with more route experience.

Sinister Minister
Like that Baffert is running this colt at Kee, a track typically speed biased, and also encouraged that Baffert is reuniting the colt with Gomez; last time this horse an insane pace in NoCal and bounced his way down the rail in the stretch; Cause To Believe, the winner, came back to finish a non-threatening third in the Ill Derby; best hope is that First Samurai is rated - setting him up to grab the lead.

Sadler's Trick
Biancone showed earlier this meet that he isn't afraid to put one in a stakes after a maiden win; Likely won the Lafayette for him impressively after a single maiden win at Turfway; Leparoux was on that one, too; on the downside - his closing style doesn't suit the kee track profile, and his last 2 figs leave something to be desired.

Seaside Retreat
While With A City was able to save ground for much of the Lane's End, this horse had to race at least three or four paths off the rail throughout; but wide trips aren't as costly at TP now that the track has Polytrack; no match for Bluegrass Cat two starts ago; his form in Canada was good at 2 when matched against lesser; those with faith will be offered a price.





Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby (G2)
By JEFF TAYLOR


New Joysey Jeff
Can't blame them for trying as they ship all the way in here in quest of at least part of the seven figure purse; still winless on the main but to their credit, they have not really ducked anyone out there thus far while trying progressively further distances; encouraging, improving yet brief career suffered a setback last time when he saved ground to no avail and failed to fire off one of his belated rallies; they add blinkers for this which probably puts him a little closer early and he did run that 92 fig two back with a clean trip; there is likely to be plenty of traffic problems today but if the equipment change helps, he will pull his weight in the field coupling that stands a chance for part.

Steppenwolfer
Word came down from here where he was stabled back in December prior to that first Louisiana Downs start that this was a talented colt and was headed for great things; a big disappointment that day but he redeemed himself in his first start as a 3-year-old; another step forward in his local debut then came the bouts with Lawyer Ron; almost a draw in the Southwest while a relative outsider but little doubt who was best in the Rebel; his progress has slowed and he is certainly not the 'now' horse that he once was; couple of nice works since his last but just don't know where the needed improvement is going to come from.

High Cotton
Most thought the Rushaway was a better chase going in than the Lane's End and that popular opinion is likely to prove correct; that only means that Turf's premier event was a little soft this year, not that this one's win was particularly impressive; not to take anything away from him, however, as he did what he needed to do in front running fashion and he drew the best of the speed in here which deserves mentioning in this large cast; he still has some room to improve, at least to the lower 90 Beyer level he threw as a juvie and the strip started out the week playing toward speed; Poly imports did not fare very well early in the meeting but there are worse options in here than betting on a wire job from this one.

With a City
Blew up tote with that Lane's End win and it is easy to say now that he should not have gone off close to 50-1; he still has a lot to prove in the Derby hunt as he has seen rather limited success over conventional dirt; just his maiden score as a matter of fact; as discussing 'Cotton's chances, many of those sporting Polytrack form here to begin the meeting did not do well, 0-for-39 to begin the season; he is certainly a useful colt but the novelty of the blinker change is over and his dirt record too sketchy to qualify for a repeat; have to start culling somewhere in this large field and he fails to make the cut.

Lawyer Ron
Even money might be hard to take in a field this large and diverse but it is going to be equally difficult to bet against him; did not look entirely comfortable rating off the pace last time but he did and he left little doubt when he moved on the leaders that the race was for second money; he is plenty tactical enough to outbreak and outrun any traffic trouble early and this beneficial post will help in that department; he is simply too tough an hombre for any one of this group to handle alone so that means it will take a bad trip to beat him; not banking on that happening either and he continues to train like a good one; forget the declining Beyers and bet on THE Derby winner.

Well Said
Continues to make progress and for an instant in the Rebel, it appeared as if he was going to be somebody down the lane; that tepid bid flattened out but his Beyer didn't as he took another step forward; has to deal with all three of those that finished in front of him last time and to cope with this kind of traffic means a real gut check although he is another race seasoned from that last; more natural speed than he showed and today would be a good day to show it as the field is likely to collapse toward the inside past the stands for the first time; one of the more likely in here to move forward so he makes the trifecta list.

Jealous Profit
Graded stakes performer as a baby starts all over in his 3-year-old debut in a maiden race that was scheduled for the grass, not the dirt; all of the sudden he is reborn and is back on the Derby Trail; sounds like something out of a fairy tale and likely is as one six and half furlong sprint is not likely to equip one to go nine furlongs against at least one soph that is definitely top shelf; the four lengths to Brother Derek before the Breeders' Cup last fall looks pretty good but the West Coast fraternity of quality youngsters very small and the ranks even slimmer into this season; will strike the fancy of many but his chances just don't add up.

Private Vow
Close second choice on tote in the Rebel between Ron and Steppen but failed to live up to his advance billing when he came up dead empty in the lane; granted he did not have the best of trips with his jaw broke behind the pace and the traffic; but he just had so very little left; some believe it may have been by design and Asmussen sandbagging a bit with the bigger picture in mind; the 3-year-old game all about what have you done for me lately and this one has likely fell out of favor with many bettors; expect he rebounds and runs at least good enough with his past history to grab a share.

Red Raymond
Went through some trying times late last year after a promising early career that had Holthus thinking he was the best of his 2-year-olds and that group certainly included Ron; has regrouped to a degree this year and while not nearly as flashy as his barnmate, he did run a pretty nice one himself in the Rebel; two solid works between starts and while it might be an abstract concept, he seems to thrive a little on contact and trouble and with his running style, there should be plenty of chances for swapping bumps today; perseveres and gets part once again.

Simon Pure
Van Berg's maiden tried to flatter him off that runner up finish in that maiden tilt but neither one of that one's races here have done that; went too fast in the San Felipe to hang on but if he was the real deal, he would have lasted better than finishing in front of only two; on the other hand, he may only have to outrun Cotton early to clear and there is plenty of room, about three sixteenths of a mile to the first turn, to clear and settle on the rail; the strip has been playing kinder and kinder toward speed of late but keep in mind, McKee and Ron is not going to let anything go unopposed up front; theft possible but want double digits on tote before betting to find out.

Nob Hill Deelite
First venture outside the confines of Cajun-bred company not a bad one as he was forced to wait at a critical juncture of the Rebel; empty when clear for the drive but can see him sitting well of the pace today and making the one run down the lane; the winner has probably checked out by then but that should not prevent him from improving his position enough to pick off a share of the superfecta; another member of the field who could be heard from as their betting position should be considered.

Superfly
Still waiting for him to take that necessary step forward from age two to three if he wants to be a major player; it did not happen at short prices at the Gulf nor did it happen in the Lane's End where he regressed when the real running started after making a modest middle move; he will obviously need to run on today and he simply has not done that; connections dangerous and Willie coming in to ride does make one pause and take notice but he has just not accomplished enough.

Film Fortune
Third member of the mutuel field who somehow remained a maiden after that last effort which only goes to show you that if in this game it looks too good to be true, it often times is; better effort in the Rebel with that troubled start and altered course but similar to the rest of the second flight finishers that day, he was in no danger of catching Ron; not saying that last disappointment is indicative of his true colors but this is an awfully tough spot to try and break your maiden; adds just a little more ammo to the field if you want to use them in the bottom of the gimmicks.

Sayhellotolarry
Continues to make progress, even if the Beyer fell off last time in his first try against winners; rather businesslike in that most recent after a tough trip through the first turn; Borel known for his patience his ability to save some ground so if anyone can salvage this outside post, he should be able to at least do a little; many in here appeared to have reach a plateau but he is riding a good streak right now and offers more hope than most that he can step forward; Borel has a history of winning some of the region's biggest races for 3-year-olds at huge prices, including Rockamundo's stunning $218 win in this race in the 90?s; like him for part and little doubt he will be a much better price.
 
Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (G1)

Even though this is the higher ranked event of the two races today, I think the Arkansas Derby will have more impact on the Kentucky Derby.

Winner - Strong Contender
Longshot - Little Cliff

I like that Little Cliff has picked up Corey Nakatani to ride him, and I don't ever overlook Nick Zito's training capabilities and his ability to have a horse ready for big races. There's a million bucks up for grabs here and Zito is here to get a piece of it.

Interesting sidenote - The #9 horse Seaside Retreat was bred in Kentucky but is Canadian-owned, trained and ridden. Trainer Mark Casse has been the top trainer here at Woodbine many years, and his regular rider Patrick Husbands has made the trip to Keeneland to ride in today's race. They are a lethal combination here in Canada, can't say I know too much about the horse or what impact, if any, they may have on the race. I'll be watching them though. I like the fact that Casse gave his jockey a chance to ride in the race today, rather than going with a home track jock, or trying to get a bigger name to ride him. I'm not a Patrick Husbands fan, but he is a very good jockey when he wants to be...and it's nice to see a Canadian jock get a shot at a big race. We have what I consider to be some world class jockeys up here, but they never seem to get much recognition outside of Canada. Will be fun to watch.
 
Arkansas Derby (G2)

This race has had more impact on the Kentucky Derby than any race in recent years.

2004 Winner - Smarty Jones - went on to win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

2005 Winner - Afleet Alex - went on to finish 3rd in the Derby, win the Preakness and the Belmont.

Also interesting to note is that prior to winning the Arkansas, Smarty Jones won the Southwest Stakes and the Rebel that year....which is the EXACT same route that Lawyer Ron has taken this year, winning both those races also. A win today or at least a very good showing will probably make him my first or second choice in the Derby.

Winner - Lawyer Ron
Longshot - Sayhellotolarry

Longshot first...I doubt this horse can win, but he will be a huge price I'm sure and I would definitely be including him in my exactors and triactors. He has Calvin Borel in the irons and this guy can ride. In a thirteen horse field, half of the race is just staying out of trouble. The horse is also improving somewhat, and I always look for a horse on the move upwards in their form.

Now to Lawyer Ron. I am loving this horse so much, he's already done more than maybe anyone expected of him. He won the Rebel in come from behind fashion, which was something totally new to him. This is a strategy he must get used to if he wants to win the Derby. He looked like he could have run another three furlongs easily that day. His sire Langfuhr was a fixture here at Woodbine, but was a champion sprinter and I'm not sure if he ever won a race at any distance over a mile. So I still wonder if Lawyer Ron can go 1 1/4 miles. Today's race should answer that question, even though it is only 1 1/8 miles. We have to watch how he finishes the race and see how much effort he has to put forth. The other thing that concerns me somewhat is that Lawyer Ron has been very heavily raced thus far for a three-year old, I think 13 or 14 races....that is alot. How much does he have left in the tank? I am really rooting for this one big time, and as Mrracetrack said to me last night, I hope that both of us being high on this horse isn't the Kiss of Death, lol.

Mrracetrack, did you see this BTW?

Oaklawn Workouts

April 8, 2006

Lawyer Ron 5F :59B

How come no one is BUZZING about that workout? :rolleyes:

I have to at least give Steppenwolfer a quick mention. Today's race will definitely determine if he is Derby material or not. I have my doubts, but he has Robby Albarado (how did I miss him in my jockey post, outstanding rider) on his back and I never toss out a jockey of his calibre in a race like this. Alot of people think that horses do all the work in a race....not true. A jockey can win or lose a race easily. Best horse has a bad trip....he loses. And Simmo......Steppenwolfer is a grey!!!!

Well, five minutes to race time, gotta go! Mrracetrack, thanks so much for participating in this thread. Without you, I'd be here talking to myself...although that in itself is not unusual. :D
 
Well Mrracetrack....you are a genius. :)

Toyota Bluegrass

1. Sinister Minister
2. Storm Treasure
3. Strong Contender

All I can say to this race is......HOLY SHIT!!!!! Sinister Minister? :22, :45.8, 1:09.9....and the horse wins by a dozen lengths? Jesus, that's what we get for overlooking a Bob Baffert horse on a speed-biased track. I was in awe, he reminded me of War Emblem. Note that Mrracetrack did pick the second place horse, Storm Treasure. Exactor paid $601, triactor paid $4,400. :eek: Strong Contender did what he could, but there was no one beating Sinister Minister today, most impressive. Baffert even looked sort of shocked. What I absolutely love about this is that this horse will give Brother Derek all he can handle on the front end in the Derby, and then some. Could set it up perfectly.

Arkansas Derby

1. Lawyer Ron (woo fucking hoo!!)
2. Steppenwolfer
3. Private Vow

So Mrracetrack called the exactor cold...wtg!! I am so excited about this race I can hardly type. LAWYER RON IS FOR REAL!!! He broke well out of the gate and sat fifth along the rail heading into the first turn/backstretch. John McKee moved him way early and truthfully I was cursing him wondering what in the hell he was doing. But he obviously knew what he was doing cause once Lawyer Ron got the lead, he never looked back. And he sure didn't look like an extra furlong will be a problem for him. In hindsight, I'm thinking that McKee was worried about being boxed in on the rail with nowhere to go when the time came to run. Whatever his reasoning for taking the lead so early, it worked. The fractions were :23, :46 and 1:10..with the finish time being slower than the Bluegrass, 1:51 I think. Great fractions, bit slow in the finish department, but McKee may have shut him down early. No sense wasting him when it so clearly wasn't needed. And the Derby is gonna be a speed duel upfront, I can see it now. If he can rate just off the frontrunners with a decent position, I love his chances.

So that is six in a row for Lawyer Ron, and his graded earnings winnings should be around 3/4 of a million dollars now. I think I got my Derby horse Mrracetrack, and the fact that Jerry Bailey also picks him, and did so after the Rebel win, makes me feel even more confident about it. Not sure what kind of price we'll get on him. Brother Derek will probably be the favourite, but I see Barbaro and Lawyer Ron taking alot of money as well. I haven't been this excited about a Kentucky Derby in quite a while. It is going to be a strong field of horses this year and the race itself should be awesome. :)

Sidenote - Did you catch the story about how Lawyer Ron got his name? Every year, there is always some sentimental story that tugs at my heartstrings, lol. The owner of Lawyer Ron, Jim Hines, named his horse after his lifelong friend/lawyer of 39 years, Ron Bamberger. Apparently he did that quite often, named his horses after friends and family. In February of this year Jim Hines died in a freak drowning accident and four days later Lawyer Ron ran in and won the Southwest. Then in March, he ran in the Rebel and won there also. Ron Bamberger was there that day to accept the trophy and winner's cheque on behalf of his friend. There's nothing I would like better than to see him in the winner's circle on May 6th.

Edited to add that prior to the race, the commentators did make mention of Lawyer Ron's workout that I posted in a previous post. They said that the jockeys were talking about it in "reverential" terms, lol. I should hope so, it was an outstanding work, on a track not nearly as fast or speed conducive as Santa Anita/Del Mar. Think I'm going to sign up for Equibase's workout notification....I wanna know when Lawyer Ron works next. I find the workout immediately following a big race can be most telling as to how the horse handled the race.
 
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Prep Race Results...

Bluegrass Stakes:

SINISTER MINISTER broke in the air, rushed to the lead after recovering, set a fast pace along the inside, and drew off in the stretch while under brisk left handed pressure. STORM TREASURE bumped with STRONG CONTENDER after the start, was outrun early along the inside, moved around LITTLE CLIFF with three furlongs to go, angled back to the inside and made a solid run to the furlong marker, could not sustain that rally but held on to be second best. STRONG CONTENDER bumped after the start, raced within striking distance inside, moved closest to the pace from the inside after a half, moved off the rail on the second turn and gave way.

Start Good for all but Sinister Minister. Won Driving. Time , :22 4/5, :45 4/5, 1:09 4/5, 1:35 2/5, 1:48 4/5


Sure was an impressive performance by Sinister Minister... And he didn't even break well from the gate!

His 6f time was really fast, and he had plenty left. But...as impressive as that looked... he will NOT get away on an easy and uncontested lead like that in the Derby. But he certainly gained a lot of new supporters from that fine effort today.

Storm Treasure beat everyone else... At 65-1 odds! ;)
He has a running style that could be very beneficial in that long stretch at Churchill Downs.

Arkansas Derby:

LAWYER RON broke in, bumped with foe, in a bit tight in the first turn, accelerated up the inside to outrun that traffic onto the backstretch, rated in the run up the backstretch though some lively fractions, remained clear, turned back a tepid bid from PRIVATE VOW nearing the furlong grounds while drifting in a bit under a steady right handed stick, increased advantage then held the runner up comfortably safe in the late going. STEPPENWOLFER lacked early foot, began a steady advance off the inside the third quarter while emerging from traffic, continued willingly to the finish while well off the inside. PRIVATE VOW prompted the winner up the backstretch, continued to chase through the second turn, lodged a mild bid on that on from the inside when straightened for home, was denied, weakened, caught for the place.

Start Good for all . Won Driving. Time , :23, :46 2/5, 1:10 4/5, 1:37 3/5, 1:51 1/5


Very Impressive win by Lawyer Ron!

Will now be the favorite or co favorite in the Derby.

As Pina mentioned, he rather surprisingly moved for the lead early in the backstretch, but his jockey obviously felt he had the best horse, and wanted clear sailing. A confident ride on a "much the best" horse.

Steppenwolfer rallied very well, and showed a strong closing ability, which will make him one of many who will like the added distance of the Derby.
The biggest concern for all the late closers in the Derby will be position and traffic woes.

I think with today's races, I have 3 horses that I like to win... with 3 more that can be upsetters. I will still need to see post positions, and how the track surface will be on Derby Day.

In other words... I still have "no idea" who I like... :confused: :D
 

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