Brexit - whats the difference.....

[ChopleyIOM]

Yes, because pretending something doesn't exist and/or isn't real makes it go away!

 

[thr0b]

Yes, because pretending something doesn't exist and/or isn't real makes it go away!

It's astonishing. People argue facts and hand-wave them as lies. Half a nation was groomed, and a good proportion of that half are still denying it.

 

[mack341]

I give the link but the daily express is a nightmare of adverts and popups interspersed within the article. [25th june 2020]

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" Economist Roger Bootle argued the EU's root contradiction has been exposed and could spell the end of the bloc. While speaking on YouTube channel Brexit Watch, Mr Bootle claimed there was tension building between two groups that both support the institution of the EU. The economist claimed, the tension was rising between those that wanted to see a United States of Europe and those that wanted a Europe made up of individual cooperating member states. "

Mr Bootle said: "I think the wheels are coming off the EU and I have thought this for a long time.

"In my book 'the Trouble with Europe', I actually forecast then not just the Euro would break up but the EU would eventually break, it wouldn't survive.

"I stand by this, though it is not bound to happen but right at the centre of the EU there has been a contradiction."

He said: "In its very essence you have those people who wanted to create a United States of Europe, who wanted to drive Europe into ever-closer integration.

"Then you had others who didn't subscribe to that aim who essentially wanted to keep it a Europe of nation-states.

He continued: "These two things are fundamentally in opposition to each other.

"Th EU behaved with the attitude of, oh it will be alright, it will work on the night.

"That is exactly what the monetary union is, what the Euro is.

"It is a halfway house, a half-completed monetary union."


Mr Bootle concluded: "It nearly collapsed in 2012 and it has been on the ropes ever since.

"Now we have got the coronavirus crisis and it has exposed the problem I referred to.

"The contradiction of groups and the tension between those that want a proper full union and those that don't.

"It is right at the root of the union and I think Europe is going to have to face up to this.

"It is not going to be able to go on fudging it and thinking it is all going to be alright on the night."

-------------

I definitely get the sense our negotiators aren't panicking like they were before under Theresa may, probably because they know a WTO based no deal is not the end of the world, and preferable to a rushed bad deal with longer term consequences. We can always renegotiate individual matters as things pan out. The whole world economy is probably going to be in trouble now due to the virus, 'the great reset' is on it's way.

 

[thr0b]

There is not a major developed nation in the world that trades solely on WTO terms. It is NOT a good thing.

The EU are not panicking. Our negotiators aren't panicking because Johnson's team does not want a deal; they never have.

And all the time, right-wing newspapers are telling you not to worry. Because their owners are going to be just fine, no, better off because of the oncoming clusterfuck.

There's a reason Farage and Johnson's relatives are taking up their citizenship options for other EU nations.

The EU is not remotely close to collapse. If it were, they would not be speaking in a united voice still against a former member state. There would be no sense in doing so if others were considering leaving, as they'd be damning themselves down the line.

I really can't believe people are still falling for the Mail/Express shit, which has been consistently and provably wrong.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I definitely get the sense our negotiators aren't panicking like they were before under Theresa may, probably because they know a WTO based no deal is not the end of the world, and preferable to a rushed bad deal with longer term consequences. We can always renegotiate individual matters as things pan out. The whole world economy is probably going to be in trouble now due to the virus, 'the great reset' is on it's way.

With all due respect though mack, that's the kind of rhetoric we've been hearing for years and yet here we are, the EU is still intact, 'Project Fear' is becoming 'Project Reality' in front of our eyes, and all the stuff that the Leave campaign told us would happen ('exact same benefits as we have now' etc) is being revealed for the stack of lies it was all along.

No one ever said it would be 'the end of the world' to leave the EU without a deal, but let's face it, that's a pretty low bar to cross. I mean, 'Well it could have been worse I suppose, the world could have ended' isn't exactly a shining endorsement of a course of action, is it?

For example, current best estimates are that in a no deal scenario, the prices of everyday staples will increase by 5-20%, with some issues around availability of fresh produce, shelf life etc.

And what have we got out of it? Blue passports designed by a French owned company that are made in Poland.

 

[mack341]

There is not a major developed nation in the world that trades solely on WTO terms. It is NOT a good thing.

The EU are not panicking. Our negotiators aren't panicking because Johnson's team does not want a deal; they never have.

And all the time, right-wing newspapers are telling you not to worry. Because their owners are going to be just fine, no, better off because of the oncoming clusterfuck.

There's a reason Farage and Johnson's relatives are taking up their citizenship options for other EU nations.

The EU is not remotely close to collapse. If it were, they would not be speaking in a united voice still against a former member state. There would be no sense in doing so if others were considering leaving, as they'd be damning themselves down the line.

I really can't believe people are still falling for the Mail/Express shit, which has been consistently and provably wrong.

They are quoting a well respected economist, that is the whole basis of the article, if you read it he said the break up was not 'bound to happen' but there is a glaring contradiction between countries that want closer alignment and others that don't. In an economist's terms close could be two decades or longer, as he uses the word 'eventually'

I think you'd have to be a bit of a blind EU fanatic to believe everything is sailing along fine just the same as the late 90's to early 2000s?

[ There's also no need to swear in reply to a post unless you are seeking confrontation? ]

 

[thr0b]

Bootle is a serial Eurosceptic, who has made lots of money and written books consistently on the subject. A one-note thinker. He's also a regular Express contributor, and most of his writing appears only in right-wing and Eurosceptic newspapers.

I don't hold much weight in his assessments. Again, he is provably wrong. And the Leave argument has been proved to be built on lies.

You cannot argue with facts, and he doesn't. He argues an opinion.

 

[mack341]

With all due respect though mack, that's the kind of rhetoric we've been hearing for years and yet here we are, the EU is still intact, 'Project Fear' is becoming 'Project Reality' in front of our eyes, and all the stuff that the Leave campaign told us would happen ('exact same benefits as we have now' etc) is being revealed for the stack of lies it was all along.

No one ever said it would be 'the end of the world' to leave the EU without a deal, but let's face it, that's a pretty low bar to cross. I mean, 'Well it could have been worse I suppose, the world could have ended' isn't exactly a shining endorsement of a course of action, is it?

For example, current best estimates are that in a no deal scenario, the prices of everyday staples will increase by 5-20%, with some issues around availability of fresh produce, shelf life etc.

And what have we got out of it? Blue passports designed by a French owned company that are made in Poland.

I don't have a lot of faith in our leaders and decision makers to fulfill the ambitions for the country that they speak about, but that wil be part of our democratic process and debate [hopefully]

The cost of food has already shot up during the lockdown, but you have to look at how Uk/britain plc makes a lot of it's money/income, and how that will be impacted by a no deal with europe. London is probably still the leading financial centre [maybe number two] we'd be in trouble without it.

Many, many top conservatives were in favour of remaining, cameron and osborne, May etc.. and of course the biggest fanboy is crony blair, so I'm willing to take my chances and ignore them.

 

[paul7388]

Everywhere is totally fucked with economies ruined through the Coronavirus. So who knows if it will get worse or not because of Brexit.

But I would imagine some countries in EU would want best deals they can get with UK as it is proven fact their economies rely on UK visitors. If they make things too difficult for UK and it affects the amount of tourists to their countries they would be totally screwed.

 

[mack341]

Bootle is a serial Eurosceptic, who has made lots of money and written books consistently on the subject. A one-note thinker. He's also a regular Express contributor, and most of his writing appears only in right-wing and Eurosceptic newspapers.

I don't hold much weight in his assessments. Again, he is provably wrong. And the Leave argument has been proved to be built on lies.

You cannot argue with facts, and he doesn't. He argues an opinion.

He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Merton College, Oxford before completing his graduate studies at Nuffield College.

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Bootle began his career in the academic world as a lecturer in Economics at St Anne’s College, Oxford.

He worked as an economist for Capel-Cure Myers and Lloyds Merchant Bank. From 1989 until 1998, he was an economist at Midland Bank/HSBC, rising to the position of Group Chief Economist of the HSBC group. During the John Major government in the 1990s, he was appointed to the UK treasury’s panel of economic forecasters under Kenneth Clarke.

^ that sounds to me like he is an intelligent man and respected as an economist; he is sceptical of the EU, it is allowed and not a modern day heresy. He probably realises endless EU red tape is not good for small and medium sized businesses in the uk, doesn't mean the uk govt won't adopt the same approach, as Chopley has mentioned recently. But at least (theoretically) we can vote in politicians who wish to change that.

 

[thr0b]

Red Tape?

Oh man, you really have fallen for it.

The fact that on the most basic level - there was previously little to no red tape for trucks to cross from the continent to us, yet next year they will have to fill out more paperwork and we will have to pay more people to review that paperwork which right now is not necessary has not been noticed by you?

The fact that the cost of running just one lorry park in Kent (which their Brexiteer MP has whinged about being placed in his constituency) will more than outweigh any negligible benefit appears to have been ignored.

"the UK government expects businesses to complete hundreds of millions of additional import and export customs declarations - an official estimate of around 400 million was later revised down to 215 million - as a result of Brexit, at a cost previously estimated by HM Revenue and Customs at anything up to £20bn a year."

And that's just the customs costs.

You think we've got price rises now due to a temporary blip? Just wait until that temporary blip hits the reality of what's coming on January 1st. Get used to potatoes.

 

[goatwack]

These Remainers' optimism is infectious, to the point where I'm almost exploding with joy

I mean sure, potatoes. We could have mashed, wedged, hell even 'Potatoes Au Gratin' so don't be knocking its unquestionable versatility!

We'll become a Third-World Country outpost that likely sinks to the bottom of the ocean

Rather reminiscent of the Millennium Bug, I recall the fear-mongering employed back then and people profiteering heavily off the back of that

Only realistic short-term fallout felt for the next couple of decades will be due to, shit what was it, Cor.....Cov.....some sort of biblical pandemic that decimated world economies in a Quarter. But no, let's beat the Brexit Pessimism Drum and attribute our collective failings on that!

So yes, we're all f*cked. These Remainer parties must be fun

 

[thr0b]

No. We've now got Covid PLUS the reality of Brexit combining.

A sensible government, acting in the interests of the nation would've taken up the opportunity at a time of global pandemic to extend the transition agreements. The option was there. They did not reject it to look after the interests of the nation, rather as ideology.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

That's the thing, just because you've got a broken leg doesn't mean you throw yourself out of a window to break your arm as well, since the broken leg is already causing you a lot of pain so you might not notice the difference that much.

Brexit was already a crazy act of national self harm, to deliberately do it off the back of Covid (when we had the opportunity to extend transition) is insanity driven by wild-eyed ideology and disaster capitalists eyeing the spoils of the economic carnage.

I do note however that literally no one, at all, anywhere, is still trying to make the case for anything that Brexit might actually make better.

 

[goatwack]

 

[goatwack]

But wait, there's more!

 

[goatwack]

And of course finally, not forgetting, we have

 

[mack341]

No. We've now got Covid PLUS the reality of Brexit combining.

A sensible government, acting in the interests of the nation would've taken up the opportunity at a time of global pandemic to extend the transition agreements. The option was there. They did not reject it to look after the interests of the nation, rather as ideology.

If you extend the transition agreements on the basis of the 'pandemic' what time frame are you going to put on it, given the scientists keep saying it's going to be with us for some time and there will be further waves.

You could be looking at delaying brexit until 2022. The EU always want something, I bet any extension would have had extra big costs. [maybe political sovereignty concessions] I do not object to giving more time to EU citizens seeking uk residency as the lockdown may have caused problems for people.

 

[goatwack]

If you extend the transition agreements on the basis of the 'pandemic' what time frame are you going to put on it, given the scientists keep saying it's going to be with us for some time and there will be further waves.

You could be looking at delaying brexit until 2022. The EU always want something, I bet any extension would have had extra big costs. [maybe political sovereignty concessions] I do not object to giving more time to EU citizens seeking uk residency as the lockdown may have caused problems for people.

I dig the shout-out Mack, kudos

Spoiler

please don't cart me off to Azerbaijan. I have so much left to give

 

[thr0b]

 

[goatwack]

Cruel, yet funny

 

[mack341]

Red Tape?

Oh man, you really have fallen for it.

The fact that on the most basic level - there was previously little to no red tape for trucks to cross from the continent to us, yet next year they will have to fill out more paperwork and we will have to pay more people to review that paperwork which right now is not necessary has not been noticed by you?

The fact that the cost of running just one lorry park in Kent (which their Brexiteer MP has whinged about being placed in his constituency) will more than outweigh any negligible benefit appears to have been ignored.

"the UK government expects businesses to complete hundreds of millions of additional import and export customs declarations - an official estimate of around 400 million was later revised down to 215 million - as a result of Brexit, at a cost previously estimated by HM Revenue and Customs at anything up to £20bn a year."

And that's just the customs costs.

You think we've got price rises now due to a temporary blip? Just wait until that temporary blip hits the reality of what's coming on January 1st. Get used to potatoes.

If you read my post you can see I mentioned red tape [and Chopley raising that issue recently]

But how do you know the border red tape is not at the EU's insistence as they are worried about imports from us undercutting their set up ? [a bit like the gray imports issue from years back]

And you really don't need to try and make these discussions personal, just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they're gullible fools who have fallen for something - why not keep it civil? Otherwise I've made a mistake engaging with this thread again.

I read the for and against posts and the remainer arguments remain unconvincing, and how they feel the EU will benefit the average person in the street is not coming across very clearly [ it's approach to bureaucracy is like the ukgc on steroids from where I'm sitting ]

 

[thr0b]

I won't waste my time typing the many, many positives of the EU, nor that the laws of the EU were in almost every single case approved by the EU's elected members, and that we were at the top of the table throughout.

I will simply put it this way; the Brexit campaign was based on lies and run by liars. Liars who have variously been found in contempt of parliament, have links to Russian oligarchs, who run hedge funds who will benefit massively from us crashing out without trade deals, based on a referendum which had no legal force and has been found to have been gamed from the start by foreign actors. The current government has only this morning told people they should return to working in offices at the height of a pandemic, simply to protect the economy, not out of any change in the medical advice. Their own medical advisor said only yesterday there is no reason to amend the work from home advice. Johnson this morning said "We listen to advice, but we make the decisions."

And you put your trust in this shower.

You Brexiteers can own this. If it works out, great. I'll be shocked, but I'll be happy.

But admit it to yourself; the course is insanity. Steer away from the right-wing media, look directly at reports from international sources. We're a fucking laughing stock of a nation with a currency now being treated as that of an emerging nation.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

But how do you know the border red tape is not at the EU's insistence as they are worried about imports from us undercutting their set up ? [a bit like the gray imports issue from years back]

The border 'red tape' was inevitable mack, it's been inevitable ever since the decision was made (on May's watch, the 'ardent remainer'......) to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union.

At the time both the EU and the 'Remoaners' said (this was years ago now, remember) - 'Holy shit folks, there's going to be a hell of a lot of form filling required as a result of this approach, you're gonna need some big ass lorry parks in Kent, tens of thousands of extra staff to cope with all the extra paperwork, a load of extra customs infrastructure, and you're going to add billions of pounds per year to the cost of doing business with the EU, as well as slowing it all down'

What was the Brexiteer answer to that? Project Fear.

And now where are we? That's exactly what's happening.

As dan said above, lies on top of lies on top of lies, and now the tower of lies is coming crashing down. Truth always wins in the end.

 

[thr0b]

The amazing thing is, they're not even trying to hide that they're lying anymore.

They're not even bothered about breaking the law. Attempting to shut down parliament.

This week, Johnson chucked one of his MPs out of the party for not voting in his incompetent tame mate to the security committee. A vote which was not Johnson's right to demand (and that was set in law in 2013.)

Now why would he want a tame yes-man on the team which could block the release of the Russia report if it's chairman wanted?