Unibet Casino - The Last Bastion of Default RTP in the UK?

[snorky510238]

Why all the fuss about rtp? It’s bullshit put out there to baffle folk. Explained before, you can have a slot that has a rtp of 99% and it can still be the worst slot you have ever played.

How? Simple! It’s the providers job to create the best strategy for the house to take your money. To take it to the extreme, if it’s programmed (and let’s not piss about saying games are random, we’re adults for god’s sake) to pay out 99p every time you spin a £1, then your rtp will be spot on. You’ll never be ahead though.

Obviously, they can’t make it that blatant but the greater the illusion created by the graphics, the more appealing the game will seem. Ultimately though, the only thing that really matters is how those wins are programmed to pay out.

You have the genuine games like DoA, where even if the rtp is lowered, the big wins will still appear, just not as often. Then you have the bullshit games. Where all the little piddly wins make up the bulk of your rtp. You can spin away merrily, thinking one day, a big win will appear. On the vast majority of slots, a big win will never occur because it ain’t in the program. RTP is still met though (allegedly) because of all the 0.5-2.5 wins you keep hitting.

To back up this theory, just look at how many games that have the alleged “Potential” to pay out millions, don’t come with a win cap. Do we really think Casinos would host these games if there was a realistic chance, one lucky hit could bust them? Would they hell as like.

Get your head out of the sand peeps.

 

[Schind]

I like the 'allegedly'.
I'd like to see the actual RTPs the game has paid out rather than the theoretical. Can't do it for new games obviously but after a few hundred thousand spins it's perfectly possible. I can't remember where I saw it but there was a game somewhere that showed their theoretical at 94ish percent but their actual over the last six months was 74ish percent. Refreshingly honest.

Tiki Treasures Megaways has a theoretical of 95% or 96.03% depending on version. I know it's a Jackpot King game and I know the 10,000 spins since I started counting don't mean much but it's paying out 76.09% to me. I only started calculating the RTP as I suspected it was paying out well under since I started playing it (for me anyway). All the other games I play regularly, including other Jackpot King games such as Diamond Mine, are in the ball park of the stated RTP but this one - well, I've finally given up on it this week.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Of course the volatility profile and win distribution matters to a player's experience with a game, but to say RTP 'doesn't matter' is nonsense.

I remember when VS started dropping to 94% and many people said 'Ahhh it's only 2%, I won't notice it', very few people left saying that now.

Ultimately a game will hit T-RTP eventually, and each game round will, on average, cost you the house edge. Do you want that house edge to be 4% or 6%? (And remember, 6% is 50% more than 4%.)

Or let's take it out to the PnGs being run at 91% or even 87%, does it still not matter?

Let's say you set about one of Tombola's games at 98.2% RTP and a PnG running at 87%, you've got £100 and you do £1 game rounds. You play to a bust out. On average, which one do you think is going to give you the better chance to (a) Achieve a decent profit and/or (b) Achieve solid playtime.

But yeah, sure, RTP is 'bullshit'.

 

[Avernite]

I think a high RTP is important, but at the same time if a few providers at one casino are set 1-2% lower than max RTP it's not the end of the world. Especially if the promotions are good enough to balance it.

 

[snorky510238]

Once you become a seasoned and very experienced player, it’s as plain as day that the whole thing stinks. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there was some top-end stuff running in the background on the software.

One question I have asked a few times and never got an answer for, is what are you actually logging into?

What I mean by that is, say for example you walk into an arcade, you choose which machine to play. There could be 10 machines that all host 50 games.

Now which machine you choose and which game you choose will influence if you win or lose. I honestly can’t believe people see it differently and that it’s all random. It absolutely isn’t. I’ve seen posts that claim the results are taken from rng’s doing thousands of spins per second or whatever.

So you’re telling me, that if I’d sat there for 5 seconds longer before I had pressed spin, I would have got a different result. Absolute bollox and pretty laughable to be honest.

Back to the point. If 20 people went to the arcade every day for a year and chose different machines and lots of different games, then at the end of the year asked for their rtp on each game and overall, (assuming they had done a decent amount of spins), I absolutely guarantee their rtp’s would be all over the place.

Why? Well because of all the variables involved. When you walk in, there may be a couple of games due to pay, on a couple of different machines. You have to be lucky enough to pick the right machine and the right game. You may get lucky and do this on numerous occasions, whereas player 5 for example, is so unlucky, they never manage it once. Your rtp’s are going to differ drastically.

What I am getting at, is with online gambling, what are you actually accessing? Your own personal version of the game? A version that is linked to all the others at that said Casino? Is it like a game for a PlayStation, where once that game is in your library, play is automatically saved after each session, enabling your journey to be totally controlled?

You see, this is what I find impossible to equate. You have a game (megaways for example). Theoretically there are millions of different outcomes (or should be) possible for every spin. That doesn’t just mean that to get near rtp you would need to do a million spins. No, because mean averages come into play so the actual figure would be trillions upon trillions before you could draw a fair conclusion. Yet when you check your rtp, on most occasions, it’s usually somewhere near. This can only be so consistent if your outcomes are being controlled.

N.B. This post is based on slots being compensated, which they are.

 

[snorky510238]

Let's say you set about one of Tombola's games at 98.2% RTP and a PnG running at 87%, you've got £100 and you do £1 game rounds. You play to a bust out. On average, which one do you think is going to give you the better chance to (a) Achieve a decent profit and/or (b) Achieve solid playtime.

But yeah, sure, RTP is 'bullshit'.

If games were truly random I could agree to a point regarding solid play. As for achieving a decent profit, like I said it depends how the wins are distributed.

You could play Starburst type games (assume they still have high advertised rtp) and NEVER attain a decent profit or you could play a more volatile game like DOA even on a lower rtp and still hit a monster win.

 

[snorky510238]

'd like to see the actual RTPs the game has paid out rather than the theoretical.

I would like to see that too. Across every Casino that runs the game. I’d need some proof that the audit was authentic too.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

You see, this is what I find impossible to equate. You have a game (megaways for example). Theoretically there are millions of different outcomes (or should be) possible for every spin. That doesn’t just mean that to get near rtp you would need to do a million spins. No, because mean averages come into play so the actual figure would be trillions upon trillions before you could draw a fair conclusion. Yet when you check your rtp, on most occasions, it’s usually somewhere near. This can only be so consistent if your outcomes are being controlled.

But that's just not how mathematical distribution works. Even on a very volatile game, a huge amount of RTP is in small and midsized wins, the monster hits are massive statistical outliers.

So if you draw 10,000 results (spins) from a pool of millions/billions of possibilities, where the vast majority of those possible results are between 0x and 50x, you're going to end up with a number not that far removed from T-RTP, get that spin sample up to 100,000 and yes, you're going to be +/- a few percent of T-RTP, that's literally just how the maths behind this stuff operates.

In your example above, get to one million spins and you'll be close to T-RTP on just about any slot in the world.

 

[justdoit]

not sure about RTP all time I play Red Tiger games on 92% or 91% RTP I hit Epic win I dont really care much for RTP any more I just play where I feel happy spending my money

 

[johnnymcc1966]

not sure about RTP all time I play Red Tiger games on 92% or 91% RTP I hit Epic win I dont really care much for RTP any more I just play where I feel happy spending my money

But how much time and money have you spent getting to that Epic Win? A higher RTP means less money spent and more play time given so as you actually achieve that win. You may disregard RTP but if only your bank balance could speak!

 

[heojinus]

Playngo is on my blacklist eversince they drop to 94 nevermind 87 lol

 

[snorky510238]

But that's just not how mathematical distribution works. Even on a very volatile game, a huge amount of RTP is in small and midsized wins, the monster hits are massive statistical outliers.

So if you draw 10,000 results (spins) from a pool of millions/billions of possibilities, where the vast majority of those possible results are between 0x and 50x, you're going to end up with a number not that far removed from T-RTP, get that spin sample up to 100,000 and yes, you're going to be +/- a few percent of T-RTP, that's literally just how the maths behind this stuff operates.

In your example above, get to one million spins and you'll be close to T-RTP on just about any slot in the world.

Well let’s put it another way. What is impossible to believe in any way shape or form, is that if you are genuinely pulling random results from a pool, how on earth you can consistently pull thousands of completely dead spins day after day and then get 1 particular day when you seem to pick nothing but good ones. This sequence and consequence happens over and over with online gambling.

Sessions would not be that black and white, if it was genuinely random.

 

[Jono777]

I'll type this for the umpteenth time....

Slots are random BUT only within controlled parameters.

(Weak but accurate) EG: Monday you can randomly hit 0x - 1000x

Tues you can hit 0x - 10K x

Rest of the week it will pay nothing over 500x no matter what.

Bigger wins are available but obviously in minority, abundance of mid range wins 50-250x and even more available in the 0-20x range.

I do agree these are distributed at random but as I say from a very, VERY controlled 'pot' of available results.

AWP's and online slots are VERY similar and BOTH compensated.

Those who want to mock or argue away, go for it my friends but 30 years gambling experience and what I witness, together with a big chunk of common sense will not see my thoughts facts swayed.

 

[snorky510238]

Yep, these Providers can fool some of the people, all of the time and all of the people, some of the time. BUT, they can’t fool ALL of the people, ALL of the time.

N.B. I would not think that the Casinos themselves are aware of what goes on (perhaps the owners). It’s the providers that are the underhanded party in what is happening. They are just using the Casinos to peddle their wares. Which is partly why you cannot have an informative “live chat” with a Casino rep, because I believe they are genuinely non the wiser.

 

[mack341]

But that's just not how mathematical distribution works. Even on a very volatile game, a huge amount of RTP is in small and midsized wins, the monster hits are massive statistical outliers.

So if you draw 10,000 results (spins) from a pool of millions/billions of possibilities, where the vast majority of those possible results are between 0x and 50x, you're going to end up with a number not that far removed from T-RTP, get that spin sample up to 100,000 and yes, you're going to be +/- a few percent of T-RTP, that's literally just how the maths behind this stuff operates.

In your example above, get to one million spins and you'll be close to T-RTP on just about any slot in the world.

Chop this sounds all reasonable and possible but conflicts 9 times out of 10 with how long a balance actually lasts, even on low stakes. I cannot remember a recent session that has been even near the advertised rtp, I got about 5 small wins in 100 spins once, it was ridiculous.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Chop this sounds all reasonable and possible but conflicts 9 times out of 10 with how long a balance actually lasts, even on low stakes. I cannot remember a recent session that has been even near the advertised rtp, I got about 5 small wins in 100 spins once, it was ridiculous.

How many spins are you talking about though? On what games? Over a few hundred spins on many slots you'll see massive variations from T-RTP, get to ten thousand and you'll be sort of vaguely in the ballpark albeit with some fair amounts of variance still, by 100,000 you'll be kind of close and at a million you'll be +/- 1%-2% of T-RTP. Get to a billion and you'll be almost bang on.

On the one hand we've got snorky saying it's fishy that you always seem to be close-ish to T-RTP once you do a large number of spins, and you're saying it's fishy that you can be well adrift after a small number of spins - and the answer to both of you is yes, that's how the mathematical distribution of pays on random games, and probability works.

You've got to remember that there's a massive amount of 'unused space' when it comes to the design of the maths models of random games, at one extreme (the example snorky uses above), where you just get exactly RTP back on every spin would be awful because you could literally never win and the game would be unspeakably tiresome. (i.e. every £1 spin returns exactly 95p.)

At the other extreme you could have a very small number of the max pays, and everything else is zero, so think DOA2 where you either win 111,000x stake (or whatever it is on that game), or zero. no other results exist. Again, no one would play it because 99.99999% of spins would return zero and nearly every single session would bust out in exactly the number of spins your bankroll could afford.

So if you imagine Slot A at the far left of this (rather excellent) diagram I've just knocked up, and Slot B at the far right, the fact is essentially all online slots exist in the grey area in the middle, out of all possibility volatilities, they're actually closer than you might think. Don't imagine Starburst at one end and DOA2 at the other, imagine them as being at different edges of the fairly narrow grey area in the middle. (Bonanza would probably sit somewhere in the middle of the two of them, but closer to DOA2 than Starburst.)

This is why 100K spins on a slot is almost always a sufficient number of spins to get respectably in the ballpark of T-RTP, and one million even more so.

As for Jono's example, I fully expect him to be a millionaire if he's worked out the 'pay cycles' of these compensated games pretending to be random games, like the people over in the Bonanza thread who claim to be able to tell within tens of spins if a session will be a losing or winning session. To those people I say, can I have a ride in one of your Ferraris please?

 

[Jono777]

I have not worked out pay cycles nor claimed to have done so.

I simply stated that (and already admitted my example was not great, trying to be quick at the time) sometimes not all "random" outcomes are available all of the time, which they are not. At times when they had been "rinsed" or "streaked" (or met or above T-RTP) Fruit Machines simply would not pay a JP (EG: Maygay £5 block) - I STRONGLY believe (as do others here) that online is little, if any different.

Play the same medium to HV game, 3-4 times a week for 2-3 hours at a time (and none of this mostly LV 3Dice crap ) for the years I've played DoA and Snorks has played Bonanza and although you probably won't change your mind, you may start to see where we are coming from.

Heysham to Douglas is not too an expensive crossing, been there and done it, if they don't charge too much to bring the Ferrari, I will pick you up at 10 in the morning

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I have not worked out pay cycles nor claimed to have done so.

I simply stated that (and already admitted my example was not great, trying to be quick at the time) sometimes not all "random" outcomes are available all of the time, which they are not. At times when they had been "rinsed" or "streaked" (or met or above T-RTP) Fruit Machines simply would not pay a JP (EG: Maygay £5 block) - I STRONGLY believe (as do others here) that online is little, if any different.

Play the same medium to HV game, 3-4 times a week for 2-3 hours at a time (and none of this mostly LV 3Dice crap ) for the years I've played DoA and Snorks has played Bonanza and although you probably won't change your mind, you may start to see where we are coming from.

Heysham to Douglas is not too an expensive crossing, been there and done it, if they don't charge too much to bring the Ferrari, I will pick you up at 10 in the morning

The thing I don't understand Jono, and which no one has been able to adequately explain (we've done this to death over in the Bonanza thread) - is why?

If we accept that the games make RTP - (and if you don't accept that, then by crikey never deposit a single penny online ever again unless you are content to pay your own money to play games that are apparently defrauding you) - then what difference does it make what 'buckets' they're picking their results out of on any day of the week? Why even remotely bother to go to all this design effort if the end result, eventually, is exactly the same?

AWPs are a massively different proposition to random online slots, AWPs always have been compensated and explicitly designed as such, they've also been massively vulnerable to manipulation and jiggery pokery over the decades too, why introduce that element of risk into an online game when random numbers will absolutely guarantee that the house always wins in the end?

We see it time and time again, someone cries foul about a game but when they get their RTP off the casino it's about right, so then they cry foul on the numbers they've been given or object to 'how' the RTP was reached.

If I had a quid for every time someone here claimed to have 'evidence' of skullduggery I'd buy my own Ferrari with the proceeds tomorrow, but it's never been forthcoming. Just show me the numbers, show me the statistical proof, show me one single piece of evidence beyond how you feel and 'common sense', and I'll take a fair, balanced, and objective look at it. (snorky claimed to have compiled such a dossier over in the Bonanza thread, but it mysteriously failed to materialise.)

The case to be proven here isn't the case of people saying random online games are random, it's the case of those insisting that they're not, with the square root of bugger all to back the claim up.

We've already seen what casinos/providers do when they want to make more money, they just lower RTPs, why would they go to all the effort of implementing the elaborate dark shenanigans being suggested here if the RTP stays exactly the same?

Just go and load Dead Or Alive over at Unibet, 94.03% when it used to be 96% and a bit, boom, that's how they make more money out of it.

The accusations here are the equivalent of accusing your next door neighbour of building a secret underground lair festooned with evil death rockets with the end goal of destroying one of your gateposts, when all he actually needs to do is hit it with a hammer.

 

[snorky510238]

(snorky claimed to have compiled such a dossier over in the Bonanza thread, but it mysteriously failed to materialise.)

Oh, I have it alright, don’t worry about that. Not going to post it on here though for wannabes to judge, I’ll leave that to the people who are qualified to make an informed decision.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Oh, I have it alright, don’t worry about that. Not going to post it on here though for wannabes to judge, I’ll leave that to the people who are qualified to make an informed decision.

Yes and as I said at the time in the Bonanza thread, unless you're proving it doesn't make RTP, the informed decision will be that the game is absolutely fine. Because otherwise all you've got is, 'I lost money over an extended period of time on a random game with an inbuilt house edge and I'm not happy about it'.

 

[Jono777]

The thing I don't understand Jono, and which no one has been able to adequately explain (we've done this to death over in the Bonanza thread) - is why?

If we accept that the games make RTP - (and if you don't accept that, then by crikey never deposit a single penny online ever again unless you are content to pay your own money to play games that are apparently defrauding you) - then what difference does it make what 'buckets' they're picking their results out of on any day of the week? Why even remotely bother to go to all this design effort if the end result, eventually, is exactly the same?

Only ever get to accept what we are told and expected to take this as gospel - Difference is we are told it is a random fair game and this part (if indeed true, which I think it is) is not advertised, thus either holding back for this reason or unfair, unclear or only a part of the full description of the 'package'

AWPs are a massively different proposition to random online slots, AWPs always have been compensated and explicitly designed as such, they've also been massively vulnerable to manipulation and jiggery pokery over the decades too, why introduce that element of risk into an online game when random numbers will absolutely guarantee that the house always wins in the end?

We see it time and time again, someone cries foul about a game but when they get their RTP off the casino it's about right, so then they cry foul on the numbers they've been given or object to 'how' the RTP was reached.

If I had a quid for every time someone here claimed to have 'evidence' of skullduggery I'd buy my own Ferrari with the proceeds tomorrow, but it's never been forthcoming. Just show me the numbers, show me the statistical proof, show me one single piece of evidence beyond how you feel and 'common sense', and I'll take a fair, balanced, and objective look at it. (snorky claimed to have compiled such a dossier over in the Bonanza thread, but it mysteriously failed to materialise.)

The case to be proven here isn't the case of people saying random online games are random, it's the case of those insisting that they're not, with the square root of bugger all to back the claim up.

We've already seen what casinos/providers do when they want to make more money, they just lower RTPs, why would they go to all the effort of implementing the elaborate dark shenanigans being suggested here if the RTP stays exactly the same?

Just go and load Dead Or Alive over at Unibet, 94.03% when it used to be 96% and a bit, boom, that's how they make more money out of it.

The accusations here are the equivalent of accusing your next door neighbour of building a secret underground lair festooned with evil death rockets with the end goal of destroying one of your gateposts, when all he actually needs to do is hit it with a hammer.

Not really mate. The accusations or I'd prefer the word "suggestions" are nothing in comparison - To tweak, alter or otherwise 'tamper' with an online slot coding is miniscule in comparison to secretly building what you describe and could be done in minutes without anyone ever knowing by an experienced programmer.

Bit too tired to go on for too long tonight, may return to this debate tomorrow (if I can be bothered lol) but anyone answer me this. Why when a game is first created, so called tested for billions of spins before release, made available to players as houses are happy with it, do they release update after update. Please no one tell me its to do with browser or Google clashes etc

 

[Jono777]

Yes and as I said at the time in the Bonanza thread, unless you're proving it doesn't make RTP, the informed decision will be that the game is absolutely fine. Because otherwise all you've got is, 'I lost money over an extended period of time on a random game with an inbuilt house edge and I'm not happy about it'.

Chops, I never doubt your knowledge at all, ever, your (almost ) as seasoned as me.

However you're either a VERY trusting guy or you have regular spreadsheets sent to you detailing the honest above board and expected RTP of all these games, giving you the belief, the trust and the integrity of said games which you try to reassure us of.

No one including you, me and anyone else on this forum (ok maybe B_T_G reps etc) knows for a 100% FACT that the games are paying their expected or advertised RTP or otherwise, No one!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Oh, I have it alright, don’t worry about that. Not going to post it on here though for wannabes to judge, I’ll leave that to the people who are qualified to make an informed decision.

So this was was back in June, we're now on the cusp of 2023, I expect things have moved along a bit by now?

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

 

[snorky510238]

So this was was back in June, we're now on the cusp of 2023, I expect things have moved along a bit by now?

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

Bonanza by Big Time Gaming - Page 791 - Casinomeister Forum

I haven’t collated all this evidence willy nilly. I haven’t presented it without a great deal of thought and made my case as concrete as possible. I would rather it takes a while. That will give me as much confidence as possible that it is being looked into properly.

 

[mack341]

How many spins are you talking about though? On what games? Over a few hundred spins on many slots you'll see massive variations from T-RTP, get to ten thousand and you'll be sort of vaguely in the ballpark albeit with some fair amounts of variance still, by 100,000 you'll be kind of close and at a million you'll be +/- 1%-2% of T-RTP. Get to a billion and you'll be almost bang on.

On the one hand we've got snorky saying it's fishy that you always seem to be close-ish to T-RTP once you do a large number of spins, and you're saying it's fishy that you can be well adrift after a small number of spins - and the answer to both of you is yes, that's how the mathematical distribution of pays on random games, and probability works.

You've got to remember that there's a massive amount of 'unused space' when it comes to the design of the maths models of random games, at one extreme (the example snorky uses above), where you just get exactly RTP back on every spin would be awful because you could literally never win and the game would be unspeakably tiresome. (i.e. every £1 spin returns exactly 95p.)

At the other extreme you could have a very small number of the max pays, and everything else is zero, so think DOA2 where you either win 111,000x stake (or whatever it is on that game), or zero. no other results exist. Again, no one would play it because 99.99999% of spins would return zero and nearly every single session would bust out in exactly the number of spins your bankroll could afford.

So if you imagine Slot A at the far left of this (rather excellent) diagram I've just knocked up, and Slot B at the far right, the fact is essentially all online slots exist in the grey area in the middle, out of all possibility volatilities, they're actually closer than you might think. Don't imagine Starburst at one end and DOA2 at the other, imagine them as being at different edges of the fairly narrow grey area in the middle. (Bonanza would probably sit somewhere in the middle of the two of them, but closer to DOA2 than Starburst.)

This is why 100K spins on a slot is almost always a sufficient number of spins to get respectably in the ballpark of T-RTP, and one million even more so.

As for Jono's example, I fully expect him to be a millionaire if he's worked out the 'pay cycles' of these compensated games pretending to be random games, like the people over in the Bonanza thread who claim to be able to tell within tens of spins if a session will be a losing or winning session. To those people I say, can I have a ride in one of your Ferraris please?

View attachment 177758

Will need a proper read thru of this reply and the below one, however I am sure I've heard you say individual sessions should be considered together as one long amount of spins? [edit: I only play 96% games, so in today's market, on uk & bookie style sites there are around 6 games I mainly play]

Well if I did this for recent sessions, say last 10, I'd easily be north of 10,000 spins and probably around 40%-50% rtp.