UK Conservative Party Leadership Election

[ChopleyIOM]

Sunak has been guiding the ship, now the ship is heading towards rapids, his claim as best man to avert disaster is highly questionable.

Her idea is [I'm guessing] that families with £30 extra income a week will help prevent a deeper recession. But if it gets spent on amazon it will do bugger all to protect the high street jobs.

It is a very difficult situation, rising energy costs and interest rates etc... I still don't feel a groundswell reaction from the public of looking towards labour to solve the problems.

When you put the TV on, with all the adverts for electric cars and £800 mobile phones etc...you wouldn't think there was a big recession looming.

Yes but the people getting the £30 per week are already financially comfortable, so their discretionary spending is already largely unchanged, the people who really need extra money, the lower income households and the 'squeezed middle' will be getting somewhere between ONE POUND and maybe a tenner extra in their pockets every week, which won't even remotely touch the sides of their increased energy bills.

Truss's plan is economically incoherent, it's completely unfunded, it will be inflationary, and it won't help the people who actually need help.

 

[dunover]

Yes but the people getting the £30 per week are already financially comfortable, so their discretionary spending is already largely unchanged, the people who really need extra money, the lower income households and the 'squeezed middle' will be getting somewhere between ONE POUND and maybe a tenner extra in their pockets every week, which won't even remotely touch the sides of their increased energy bills.

Truss's plan is economically incoherent, it's completely unfunded, it will be inflationary, and it won't help the people who actually need help.

The poor are very bad at spending money though. The better-off build extensions, buy new cars etc. which keeps people employed and holidays which helps the air and travel industry for example. The economy does extend beyond Farm Foods and the local corner shops for fags and scratchcards mate! Apparently the healthiest generation ever were those brought up in rationing between 1940-55 where there was little obesity, the main issue undermining the whole NHS nowadays. I think rationing luxury 'bad foods' via pricing is the natural result of this inflationary period and could benefit the nation in the long term. Similarly, if you're cold, shivering and trying to maintain an adequate body temperature uses far more calories than sitting in warm houses in winter when there's nothing active to do. Those Antarctic explorers apparently use 6-10,000 calories a day! High fuel prices stop expensive car journeys and lead to increased usage of public transport and car sharing or even walking.

So we may be on the cusp of a major emissions reduction towards our Green ambitions and a healthier population. It's not all doom and gloom if you really think about it.

 

[pinnit2014]

People buy cars? Most i know get them through finance and PCP deals, no matter what their wealth

Either choice is a good one for Queen Nicola - already rhetoric of making them 'more accountable' (a joke coming from the Tory party, mind you surely?), can see the bogeyman already being painted

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The poor are very bad at spending money though. The better-off build extensions, buy new cars etc. which keeps people employed and holidays which helps the air and travel industry for example. The economy does extend beyond Farm Foods and the local corner shops for fags and scratchcards mate! Apparently the healthiest generation ever were those brought up in rationing between 1940-55 where there was little obesity, the main issue undermining the whole NHS nowadays. I think rationing luxury 'bad foods' via pricing is the natural result of this inflationary period and could benefit the nation in the long term. Similarly, if you're cold, shivering and trying to maintain an adequate body temperature uses far more calories than sitting in warm houses in winter when there's nothing active to do. Those Antarctic explorers apparently use 6-10,000 calories a day! High fuel prices stop expensive car journeys and lead to increased usage of public transport and car sharing or even walking.

So we may be on the cusp of a major emissions reduction towards our Green ambitions and a healthier population. It's not all doom and gloom if you really think about it.

Well that's quite the wall of poundshop Daily Mail bile and nonsense, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume your tongue is in cheek somewhat.

It's also incorrect, the lower down the income scale you get, the more advantageous for the economy it is to distribute extra money. In simple terms, if you give a low income household £1000, they will go out and spend it into the economy pretty much immediately, if you give a moderately wealthy household £1000, they will put it into the bank, which generates zero economic activity.

This is, incidentally, largely the same phenomenon we saw with the £450bn of Covid money that the government printed, which ultimately ended up in the pockets of the wealthy, who pumped it into assets and investments, or simply trousered it - which is why we've seen insane inflation in things like house prices.

You might think the poor are 'bad' at spending money, but they do at least spend it, and generate economic activity.

 

[Webzcas]

Well this energy price cap is an absolute joke. Our direct debit tariff pretty much doubled overnight a few months back to over £200 a month, although we are now over £300 in credit, as not using heating nor no need for the tumble dryer etc.

However, they reckon it should go up to over £500 a month. Get the %&&^%^ out!

That is no way happening. Christmas present lists already organised, thermal vests, long johns and hot water bottles all round!

Seriously whoever becomes PM and whichever party is in power, the govt needs to sort this out. If it mean nationalising all power companies, then DO IT!!!

Low income earners are going to be screwed. People paying rent and mortgages will soon see their monthly energy bills almost eclipsing their rent and mortgage payments. Lots of people are going to end up on the streets, the debt collection industry are going to be on a recruitment drive. This will further fuel inflation as well.

Worrying times!

 

[slot_zombie]

Never give them access to your bank account because they love to jack up the ol' direct debits. The days of a jolly 50 quid per fuel to keep nice and toasty are long gone. No smart meters either. Monthly manual reads, pay at the last possible moment, or even a bit late late, only for what's actually been used

I've basically self-disconnected from gas by investing in electric and normal blankets plus some thick jumpers. So will not be running the gas central heating at all this winter. I have a tiny home office on the 3rd floor of the house, which tends to warm over time from the desktop PC being on in there, so will retreat to that and the bedroom during the cold months. Get some role playing games on the go. Hot water is again from gas, but just will do without and have hot electric showers instead of baths. Living room will be out of bounds as it's got a conservatory on it and gets very cold if the heating isn't on.

I could just about afford to pay 500 or 600 quid a month out on energy but I can think of a lot better uses for it and just cannot stand the thought of being ripped off so badly.

Expect meter tampering and bypassing by the desperate to increase massively - probably with a few fatal explosions as a result.

 

[Webzcas]

Yeah, you make a very good point in regards to paying by DD, which we currently do. But should they jack up the monthly amount they want, that DD is getting cancelled. I am also in the 'Anti' smart meter camp. Don't like the idea of anyone being able to control as and when we can use energy - More than happy to provide meter readings ourselves and let their employee in to verify said readings.

Currently looking into getting a log burner for our dining room / kitchen to replace the electric fire we have in place. Looking at around 2 grand to do this, which will include relining the chimney flu.

Already made a conscious decision to be very anal with regards the use of the gas central heating over the autumn and winter months and also restrict unless absolutely necessary the clothes dryer.

If we can heat one room well, with a log burner, that will suffice and logs wholesale will cost a lot lot less. Other than that, everyone can get used to wearing extra layers LOL

I am not going to be anal about the electric though. Just be sensible, ie turn off lights when not in a room etc.

The problem is though are these standing charges. You could use very very little energy be it gas or electric, but these energy companies can still bend you over with the daily standing charge, which I have seen is very high for some!

Hence I believe if the government do not do something, such as actually fix the price cap so it is actually capped and / or nationalise these energy companies, then give it to Feb, when people actually start dying, there will be massive civil disobedience that we have not seen in the UK for generations.

It will make the early 80's riots in the likes of Brixton, Toxteth and St Pauls seem like a cake walk IMO

Think of the Poll Tax riots on steroids, but in every town up and down the country.

 

[Webzcas]

This is like something out of a Chris Morris show ala The Day Today, but in some places, supermarkets are putting security tags on blocks of cheese!!!


If people can't afford to feed themselves, they will end up trying to shoplift, if they can't rob from the shops due to security measures in place, then no doubt if desperate enough will try and break into homes to get food.

This is 21st Century Britain we are living in. I dare say the majority of us here on Casinomeister will be fine, but can you imagine being on the bread line, on universal credit, already struggling and then being destroyed by the massive hike in the cost of gas and electric.

This is all going to come to a head I fear! Not scaremongering, but where we are heading, it could make the 70's seem like a picnic

 

[mack341]

I've been moved over to OVO from SSE, so have taken an interest in looking at the rates and charges properly, iirc the standing charge for the electricity is nearly 50p a day, so add on top the gas [assuming it's the same logic they use] of also 50p and that's about £360 a year for a f***ing standing charge!

There are almost 28 million households in the UK [plus business premises but leaving them out for the moment] so basic maths = £10 billion on standing charges, before we even use any energy!

Edit: Webzcas beat me to it!

 

[dunover]

Log burners are an ecological disaster. The toxins they belch out are terrible. Alas, the greenwash seems to be dominant right now regarding those.

I suggest a cheaper alternative is buy very hot chillies. The chemical in those triggers a slight sense of well being and makes the body generate heat. Another way of cheap savings is duct-taping thick polythene over window recesses which is remarkably effective as triple glazing, efficiency wise. Use the winter sunshine (Scotland excepted) if you have south or west-facing patio doors, hang damp washing on an airer in front of them. Buy an air fryer for 50%+ savings on cooking small-medium portions, it will also fan the heat into the kitchen and not waste heat energy out of a flue like gas cooking does. Change to 100% LED lighting (did that years ago) and when washing up, do NOT tip the warm dirty water down the drain until it's cold, why pay to heat the rats up?

Washing machines, wait until one weekend day and say do 3 big washes, whites, colours and darks alll in one go - use the 'speed perfect' programme. TIP - washing machines use electric to heat the water up, which is 4x per kwh dearer than gas, so if you have a combi boiler and want to do say a 40c wash, 2-3 bowls of hot tap water manually tipped in via the powder drawer will save at least half the cycle cost in money terms as the wash will no use electric then aside from the drum turning and spinning/draining. I've checked this on a smart meter and a 25p wash is literally 8-9p.

Failing the above, go and stay in your Florida holiday home for the colder months.

 

[Webzcas]

Log burners are an ecological disaster. The toxins they belch out are terrible. Alas, the greenwash seems to be dominant right now regarding those.

LOL - I do not give a rats &*&&. It is because of the likes of Greta Thunberg and the eco warriors that in part we are facing these insurmountable energy bills. Getting rid of the green levies is another thing that needs to be done, as well as a country harness our natural resources. We have enough coal ( Yes reopen the mines! ), oil and gas to be energy independent.

It is the likes of China that need to be reined in, as they produce far far far more emissions than little old Britain. Net Zero is another govt target that should also be kicked into touch.

 

[goatwack]

Standing charges are indeed where it's at. And what started as a relatively small surcharge to cover suppliers' overheads, and to stop many companies from effectively going under, has now turned into a stick with which to beat customers with.

So ultimately it matters little as to how many jumpers Cameron tells pensioners to put on or how little gas is consumed by conscientious spendthrifts, everyone will be hit the same.

When politicians assert their promise to freeze caps, it's actually the standing charge they pledge to stabilize, and as we're seeing now, those have risen into ridiculous and unsustainable levels, before one's even drawn the energy for usage, at circa 50p each for electricity and gas, with electricity having had the biggest increase. No more 7p a day, no siree!

We still use PAYG, despite companies' best efforts to cajole and even threaten smart meter installation as a must (it isn't, incidentally), and companies will do their utmost to tie consumers into contracts of sorts, often over many years, as many companies in many sectors now try to do.

Being beholden to smart meters and quarterly estimates is now proving to be somewhat 'problematic' as a result, with many customers even being offered 'take it or leave it' fixed prices to combat these increases, though often at double or triple their current costs. What's one to do....

Yet ultimately there's no escaping it, we're all going to foot the bill eventually, irrespective of what methods used, and sooner or later something has to give. And I'd suspect once the Government fully realizes this, we may see their hand forced. Not for a while yet, mind

 

[dunover]

I just thought of something - about 4 years ago when I locked into a 3-year fixed price deal with Shell Energy, there was actually a 10-year fix on offer from at least one company, but it was 20-25% dearer IIRC. I wonder how many people took it and are now laughing....

I don't think many did, if they had you'd hear about energy companies offering 2k or something to buy them out of it...

 

[slot_zombie]

I just thought of something - about 4 years ago when I locked into a 3-year fixed price deal with Shell Energy, there was actually a 10-year fix on offer from at least one company, but it was 20-25% dearer IIRC. I wonder how many people took it and are now laughing....

I'm sure they would have welshed on it by going bust, as did many suppliers.

 

[Webzcas]

Ooh, even though we are circa £300 in credit and paying £222 a month ( it was up until May £118 a month ), we have a fixed deal we can go on!

 

[dunover]

Ooh, even though we are circa £300 in credit and paying £222 a month ( it was up until May £118 a month ), we have a fixed deal we can go on!

View attachment 171409

Don't you mean 'Fixed steal'???

 

[dunover]

I'm sure they would have welshed on it by going bust, as did many suppliers.

I think it was one of the bigger ones IIRC.

 

[slot_zombie]

I think it was one of the bigger ones IIRC.

I had a brilliant fixed deal with Green Energy when the bills started escalating last year. About 15 months left to run. They bust out and I got thrown to the lions on a crap British Gas variable tariff, at a time when no fixed deals were to be had. Apparently a contract is only a contract when it's in Companies' favour.

Long story short, I owed them over 100 quid, which I felt not obliged to pay given that they hadn't honoured the deal and had put me to a lot of inconvenience. Received 3 template debt collection letters from some agency and never heard another peep - written off as part of the liquidation, no doubt.

* I don't advocate or recommend this method of dealing with energy bills.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Home insulation in the UK was going very well until the Tories decided to massively cut its funding.

Still, saved a few quid for them to bung to their mates I suppose.

But more importantly, CaN A w0mAn HaV3 A P3ni5? We're lucky that Sunak and Truss are focusing on the big issues of the day.

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[mack341]

I've had another look at my OVO energy tariffs, the gas is 7.36p kwh which still seems pretty reasonable, looking at an old bill from 2016 and the Gas unit price was 4.95p kwh. So a £100 bill would roughly be £150 now. [I guess it will go up again, so might be nearer 10p kwh come winter.]

Obviously a boiler on for enough hrs to heat a home will burn through more energy than a kettle during a day, so the nature of the beast is different.

But the killer is the electric, the cost has doubled from 15p to 30p kwh, so four times as expensive as gas.

The worry is will the prices ever go back down to reasonable levels.

 

[pinnit2014]

I've had another look at my OVO energy tariffs, the gas is 7.36p kwh which still seems pretty reasonable, looking at an old bill from 2016 and the Gas unit price was 4.95p kwh. So a £100 bill would roughly be £150 now. [I guess it will go up again, so might be nearer 10p kwh come winter.]

Obviously a boiler on for enough hrs to heat a home will burn through more energy than a kettle during a day, so the nature of the beast is different.

But the killer is the electric, the cost has doubled from 15p to 30p kwh, so four times as expensive as gas.

The worry is will the prices ever go back down to reasonable levels.

Doubt it - people start to view prices as the norm: eg, someone today said : oh, the price of petrol is ONLY 1.67 at the Gulf. Now, memory might be playing tricks on me but i vaguely remember, not so long ago, outrage/Chopley level insurrection when the prices went north of one quid.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

A disgusting comment from Truss, when asked if the President of France is 'friend or foe', Truss replies 'The jury is out'. France is one of the world's major democracies, one of our stoutest allies (including militarily), and Macron is its president - you just don't say shit like, effectively, 'Oh yeah. he might be a foe'.

You know who's a foe? Putin. That's the kind of world leader who we reserve the use of the word 'foe' for.

The more the public see of Truss, the less they like her (entirely understandably).

The poisonous morally delinquent nonsense she's coming out with might play well with Tory party members, but outside of that demographic, she's fucked.

 

[mack341]

A disgusting comment from Truss, when asked if the President of France is 'friend or foe', Truss replies 'The jury is out'. France is one of the world's major democracies, one of our stoutest allies (including militarily), and Macron is its president - you just don't say shit like, effectively, 'Oh yeah. he might be a foe'.

You know who's a foe? Putin. That's the kind of world leader who we reserve the use of the word 'foe' for.

The more the public see of Truss, the less they like her (entirely understandably).

The poisonous morally delinquent nonsense she's coming out with might play well with Tory party members, but outside of that demographic, she's fucked.

About half the french people don't see him as 'friend'

If she'd been asked 'france, friend or foe' I'm sure she would have said they're a long-standing ally.

I'm betting a lot of the discussion, previous to this point in the video, is regarding the economic migrants crossing the sea from france, so that's what this question is in relation to.

They're currently allowing thousands of foreign people [95% young men] to camp on their coast in preparation of crossing the channel in dingies etc..

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The New Statesman have knocked up a graphic showing how people will fare under the latest energy price rises (now confirmed up another 80% this morning), as you can see, Labour's plans put far and away the most money back in people's pockets, Sunak is a fairly lame second but Truss is a remote third. As per my post the other day, her tax cutting plans benefit the wealthiest most, and by a long, long way.

I've circled in green where Tory party members - (note that Tory party members and people who voted Tory in 2019 are two very, very different things) - are most likely to be.

EDIT - And yes I know Labour's plans are a very blunt instrument (hence the wealthy doing well out of them too), the key thing with their plan is it can be enacted quickly and it does at least help the people who need it most, with a minimum of delay. (And with medium-longer term changes to the tax system it can be taken back from the wealthy anyway.)

 

[ChopleyIOM]

About half the french people don't see him as 'friend'

If she'd been asked 'france, friend or foe' I'm sure she would have said they're a long-standing ally.

I'm betting a lot of the discussion, previous to this point in the video, is regarding the economic migrants crossing the sea from france, so that's what this question is in relation to.

They're currently allowing thousands of foreign people [95% young men] camp on their coast in preparation of crossing the channel in dingies etc..

It doesn't matter, when it comes to the leader of a major world democracy and a powerful ally, your starting position is 'friend' and you then move onto whatever reservations or points of difference you might have.

As for the dinghies, why should the French protect our borders for us? We left the EU and took back control, remember? They gave us considerably more help when we were still an EU member, this is borne out by the fact that migrants coming across the channel are now at record numbers.