UK Conservative Party Leadership Election

[pinnit2014]

I actually used to look forward for the 'frog spawn' days of desert

Fridays was chips and sausage roll day - now they churn out green stuff apparently - no sane human wants that

 

[ChopleyIOM]

You lucky sod! Beats my pigeon gruel with lumpy mash and afters cold blancmange drowning in a pool of subliming powder-jelly. On Fridays a bowl of semolina which resembled anaemic vomit but you would eat the miniscule dollop of strawberry jam splodged into the centre.

Probably helped explain why fat kids when I went to both primary and secondary school were as rare as Bonanza 1000x's

Meanwhile, back in the real world, several large UK lenders have stopped offering mortgages.

The Tories are trashing the UK's economy in real time.

They don't get to play the 'party of economic competence' card ever again.



Also, the UK government and the Bank of England are now, effectively, working against each other.

 

[interlog]

Shock horror, an independent bank is doing what it is supposed to do.

If it didn't, it would have been accused that Kwarteng had influenced them, the corrupt so and so that he is.

 

[pinnit2014]

Poster in Bonanza thread - no evidence, nothing to see here, you cretins

Poster in this thread - no evidence, nudge nudge wink wink, something to see here

Odd to say the least

 

[interlog]

In the meantime, in the USA the interest rate sits at 4% in order to curb inflation.

That partially resulted in the $ become so much stronger as it is more attractive to invest in it.

Currencies such as the £ and euro and others have suffered as a result of it

 

[goatwack]

I've yet to see the Bank of England strongarm my bank into raising its savings rates. I'm starting to think Truss and Kwarteng are actively pocketing at least 35p p/m off me, the w*nkers

 

[interlog]

Block of text (anybody can lift stuff):

The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75 bps to the 3%-3.25% range during its September meeting, the third straight three-quarter point increase and pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008. Policymakers also anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate which was reinforced by Chair Powell during the press conference. “We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t”. The so-called dot plot showed interest rates will likely reach 4.4% by December, above 3.4% projected in June, and rise to 4.6% next year. Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were revised lower to show a 0.2% expansion this year, compared to 1.7% seen in June and 1.2% in 2023, below 1.7% seen in June. Inflation as measured by PCE is seen to reach 5.4% in 2022 (5.2% projected in June) and 2.8% in 2023 (vs 2.6%). The unemployment rate was also revised slightly higher to 3.8% (vs 3.7%) this year and 4.4% (vs 3.9%) next year​

Source:

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[interlog]

Queue the next post:

"But but, look at those bees"....... or words to that effect

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Block of text (anybody can lift stuff):

The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75 bps to the 3%-3.25% range during its September meeting, the third straight three-quarter point increase and pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008. Policymakers also anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate which was reinforced by Chair Powell during the press conference. “We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t”. The so-called dot plot showed interest rates will likely reach 4.4% by December, above 3.4% projected in June, and rise to 4.6% next year. Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were revised lower to show a 0.2% expansion this year, compared to 1.7% seen in June and 1.2% in 2023, below 1.7% seen in June. Inflation as measured by PCE is seen to reach 5.4% in 2022 (5.2% projected in June) and 2.8% in 2023 (vs 2.6%). The unemployment rate was also revised slightly higher to 3.8% (vs 3.7%) this year and 4.4% (vs 3.9%) next year​

Source:

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So the UK government announcing that it was taking on hundreds of billions of pounds of fresh government debt, with no plan of how to pay it back apart from 'growth', has had nothing do with it whatsoever? Gotcha!

It's a bit like your 'Nothing To Do With Brexit' line, now we can add 'Nothing To Do With What The Government Is Doing' into the mix as well.

The markets are being absolutely clear about this, this is a direct reaction to the insane announcement Kwarteng made last Friday. Cause and effect.

 

[interlog]

So the UK government announcing that it was taking on hundreds of billions of pounds of fresh government debt, with no plan of how to pay it back apart from 'growth', has had nothing do with it whatsoever? Gotcha!

It's a bit like your 'Nothing To Do With Brexit' line, now we can add 'Nothing To Do With What The Government Is Doing' into the mix as well.

The markets are being absolutely clear about this, this is a direct reaction to the insane announcement Kwarteng made last Friday. Cause and effect.

So how do you explain all those other currencies plummeting against the dollar then since the USA sharply raised its interest rates.

You do what you always do. When you have a bee in the bonnet about something you dig up whatever you can find and then put that as the blame, when if you were to look at the bigger picture there are more things that had an effect.

It was you blaming Brexit for the long queues in Dover. If that was the case, then where are those queues now?

 

[pinnit2014]

No point in engaging with him tbh - he has a view, he sticks to it (well, i say his view - more Twitters) - so if some people, in a particular area with first hand experience (rather than a Guardian Journalist, fresh out of Uni), it's dismissed. Rather than questions/ask 'what you think' all you get is crtl-c, crtl-v posts.

 

[dunover]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, several large UK lenders have stopped offering mortgages.

The Tories are trashing the UK's economy in real time.

They don't get to play the 'party of economic competence' card ever again.

View attachment 173091

Also, the UK government and the Bank of England are now, effectively, working against each other.

View attachment 173092

Oh dear god in heaven chopley! WTF do you expect any competent bank to do??? Lend irresponsibly (like before the free-for-all collapse under Gordon Brown which triggered 10 years of austerity) or do the right thing and suspend fixed-rate lending products just for a few DAYS while the B of E decides how much interest rates will go up by??? Remember it's FIXED mortgages that need adjusting (those that get the fees paid!!) not variable rate ones which automatically track the base rate daily. So it's not ALL mortgages suspended!

You know, not offering fixed-priced deals for the product they are supplying (money) for the same reason as energy companies (wisely) have stopped doing it for electric and gas since the price fluctuations and rises.

Common sense mate. You'd be the first to piss, moan and point the finger if the banks lent billions at 3% when the next day the interest rates rose 2% and bust them, leading to another Brown-like crisis. "THE CAPITALIST INCOMPETENT WANKERS! THEY KNEW THE RATES WERE GOING UP IMMINENTLY AND YET THEY PROCEEDED TO LEND BILLIONS JUST BEFORE....NEVER WOULD'VE HAPPENED UNDER LABOUR"

 

[ChopleyIOM]

So how do you explain all those other currencies plummeting against the dollar then since the USA sharply raised its interest rates.

You do what you always do. When you have a bee in the bonnet about something you dig up whatever you can find and then put that as the blame, when if you were to look at the bigger picture there are more things that had an effect.

It was you blaming Brexit for the long queues in Dover. If that was the case, then where are those queues now?

But it doesn't have to be entirely one thing or the other, like with the queues at Dover, the extra Brexit checks made an already difficult situation worse and tipped it over the edge, we literally had this conversation in the Brexit thread. There have been further delays, on and off, since then, but they haven't tended to get much coverage in the news.

So in this case, yes the strength of the dollar has put pressures on many currencies, but to suggest that Kwarteng's batshit mini-budget has had zero effect (particularly on UK gilts and borrowing costs) on the situation, especially when the markets are explicitly stating that it has, is kind of just denying reality.

Just last Friday folks in this very thread were expressing their delight at what a massive shot in the arm the mini-budget would be for UK Plc, but now it's had the opposite effect all of a sudden it's, 'Bugger all to do with the mini-budget mate, it's the dollar's fault'.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Oh dear god in heaven chopley! WTF do you expect any competent bank to do??? Lend irresponsibly (like before the free-for-all collapse under Gordon Brown which triggered 10 years of austerity) or do the right thing and suspend fixed-rate lending products just for a few DAYS while the B of E decides how much interest rates will go up by??? Remember it's FIXED mortgages that need adjusting (those that get the fees paid!!) not variable rate ones which automatically track the base rate daily. So it's not ALL mortgages suspended!

You know, not offering fixed-priced deals for the product they are supplying (money) for the same reason as energy companies (wisely) have stopped doing it for electric and gas since the price fluctuations and rises.

Common sense mate. You'd be the first to piss, moan and point the finger if the banks lent billions at 3% when the next day the interest rates rose 2% and bust them, leading to another Brown-like crisis. "THE CAPITALIST INCOMPETENT WANKERS! THEY KNEW THE RATES WERE GOING UP IMMINENTLY AND YET THEY PROCEEDED TO LEND BILLIONS JUST BEFORE....NEVER WOULD'VE HAPPENED UNDER LABOUR"

Yes and why is the BoE having to look at an emergency rise in interest rates within a couple of weeks of its last raise? Because Kwarteng's psycho mini-budget has put the UK, its currency and its debts into the loony bin and the international markets are responding appropriately.

Because guess what, committing to hundreds of billions of pounds of fresh government debt, with no plan of how to pay it back, and using the money to enrich the already super-rich and corporations (who'll just squirrel it away) doesn't look like a great plan for economic growth.

 

[dunover]

Pardon my insolence but I'm still stuck on the Lewisham schoolkid story, like Frogger going side-to-side on the first log.

Going by that article's meagre context, families have to qualify to be in receipt of free school meals (seen it, done it) after which they're handed a glorified 'stub' to redeem at the till. This entitles one to a pretty reasonably sized main, with even a dessert of sorts (usually whatever they've cobbled up, aka sponge cake plonked amidst a sea of cold lumpy custard).

So if not eligible for the free school meal, then it would stand to reason that the parents are of a suitably adequate income to provide their kids with meals for the day? And yet, going by the Lewisham tale, the kid went 'hungry' regardless, which, let it be said, is not of his own making, but his parents'.

Seemingly the narrative appears to be 'screw personal accountability, the state owes me <something>' and the general feeling that schools and governments not only 'parent' children, but provide their daily sustenance too!

I'd wager in a case as 'severe' as the kid simulating eating out of an empty lunchbox the school would more than likely provide food, and dinner ladies have been known to give out the day's remains at the end, as opposed to chucking them anyway.

The whole notion that children in this country are impoverished and starved by the state is complete tripe, and the construct of some Guardian blogger's mind after having read about it on Wikipedia

Yes, @ChopleyIOM has still not provided any authenticity to this anecdote, no context. Because he cannot. Because he's yet again copied and pasted someone else's 'facts' who also cannot authenticate the allegation.

I'm sure the BBC will investigate it though if one of their tacit cronies uses it to set a false agenda story they can thus latch onto under the guise of 'news' justified by the fact it has exceeded the qualifying amount of retwats.

Cue the TV cameras entering a council flat in Lewisham:

Obese single parent probably of migrant origin, sitting on the sofa, two misbehaving Staffies running about, piled-up ash tray balanced on the arm practising her best teary-eyed look for the cameras while relating her tragic story of deprivation to the sympathetic reporter. Flat screen TV paused in the background with Trisha in view, her smartphone vibrating away clasped in her inked fingers. Claims can't get a job because the benefits will penalise her, and the tax cuts won't help because she doesn't pay any, plus she wants to watch her kids grow up. A quickly prepared show of compassion as her kids join her on the sofa, already 3 stone overweight each, and then as she lights another Mayfair up she mentions Christmas and the things she would love to buy them, at which point they look to the floor and her crocodile tears start falling. Now the BBC have their 'money shot' and pack up and leave, not recording the now-muffled shouts of parental discipline following them down the corridor "Right yer pair of FUCKERS I just fuckin' told ya I ain't doin' no cooking today, leave me in fucking peace for once ya little shits, can't you fuck-off out or summat!?"

 

[pinnit2014]

I'll be more amazed when a BBC article doesn't have a spelling mistake - are the left being to to forsake it? That's the real crime here.

 

[goatwack]

I still shudder at news snippets compiled by another blogger yearnalist wannabe, citing the country of Hungary in its text. Except they'd spelt it as 'Hungry', several times throughout.

Seems apt given the (now defunct) topic we had been discussing. I'd love to say it was a BBC article, but it was more likely the Daily Mail. They do try though, bless 'em

 

[pinnit2014]

'The Hungry Child' i've heard so much about is now an entire country?

I feel foolish now - lets get 'em the Egg McMuffin's, pronto!

 

[interlog]

Oh dear god in heaven chopley! WTF do you expect any competent bank to do??? Lend irresponsibly (like before the free-for-all collapse under Gordon Brown which triggered 10 years of austerity) or do the right thing and suspend fixed-rate lending products just for a few DAYS while the B of E decides how much interest rates will go up by??? Remember it's FIXED mortgages that need adjusting (those that get the fees paid!!) not variable rate ones which automatically track the base rate daily. So it's not ALL mortgages suspended!

You know, not offering fixed-priced deals for the product they are supplying (money) for the same reason as energy companies (wisely) have stopped doing it for electric and gas since the price fluctuations and rises.

Common sense mate. You'd be the first to piss, moan and point the finger if the banks lent billions at 3% when the next day the interest rates rose 2% and bust them, leading to another Brown-like crisis. "THE CAPITALIST INCOMPETENT WANKERS! THEY KNEW THE RATES WERE GOING UP IMMINENTLY AND YET THEY PROCEEDED TO LEND BILLIONS JUST BEFORE....NEVER WOULD'VE HAPPENED UNDER LABOUR"

What a load of bollocks.

Did you not know that those banks didn't receive the memo from Kwarteng asking them to continue offering the low rate mortages so that they could scew the underclass so that each employee could get their £1m (up from £500k) bonus this year.

 

[dunover]

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The polling hasn't looked good for the Tories for a while now, but they've plumbed new depths in the last few days, turns out folks aren't impressed with a mini-budget that nakedly aims to make the rich even richer, in the middle of a cost of living crisis, whilst loading fresh government debt onto everyone else, causing interest rates to spike and the pound to crash.

I said a few days ago I'd put Truss's chances of making it to the next general election as 50/50, but I suspect those odds have shortened already, the Tories are nothing if not ruthless when it comes to ejecting a loser - and Truss is very much looking like a loser right now.

Labour are starting to put together meaningful policies now, some good stuff coming out of their conference this week so far, and the Tories have given them an attack line on the economy beyond their wildest dreams. (Is Truss on the Labour party payroll? Questions need to be asked.)

Let's see what happens, we need to have a general election in the next two years, my personal feeling is that the Tories have shagged it already, but maybe this supposed economic miracle will actually happen and they can turn it around, but it's not something I'd be having a bet on.

Bloody hell though, I knew Truss would be bad (and said as much), but I couldn't have possibly imagined she would screw the pooch as biblically as this inside of three weeks, and most of that was taken up by the Queen's death and period of mourning.

I do sometimes wonder who the 28% are when it comes to polls like this, like, who looks at the absolute embarrassment of an administration we have at the moment and thinks, 'Yeah sure, I'd vote for more of that' - still, that's democracy!

 

[goatwack]

I can see Labour making inroads at the next General Election, perhaps swagging a seat or two in smatterings across the land. Still can't see them wrestle the Tories from power in its entirety, however. Certainly not with Starmer at the helm, nor his gobby sidekick.

And say what you will about empty promises and fairytale manifestos, the electorate will always be swayed by somewhat likeable or seemingly relatable personas, of which Labour currently have none. Failing that, a politician's outlined vision could be boring as hell, yet most would rather see things play out in its entirety before condemning them to the land of political has- beens.

This is why people are watching things unfold before casting aspersions, a la Truss & co. Chances are they may well get ousted before long, or it may be that they end up doing a fairly decent patch job, given all the UK - and the world - has just been through with the deadly Brexit.

I'd imagine the Tories' constant personnel shift must look like a demented game of musical chairs to those not of a conservative persuasion, and seemingly one disconnected, insular elite being swapped for another on a whim. Yet for all their cronyism and indistinguishable traits, they're STILL favoured by the electorate when all is said and done, mainly because Labour's gang are about as likeable as dysentery

Time will tell, of course, but I shan't be holding my breath at a Labour power-swoop, given that they, I dunno, seemingly struggle with defining what a woman is, as an example. Or trash-talk by calling their political opponents 'scum' and so forth. A sure-fire election-winner if ever I saw it!

 

[Matti]

But it doesn't have to be entirely one thing or the other, like with the queues at Dover, the extra Brexit checks made an already difficult situation worse and tipped it over the edge, we literally had this conversation in the Brexit thread. There have been further delays, on and off, since then, but they haven't tended to get much coverage in the news.

So in this case, yes the strength of the dollar has put pressures on many currencies, but to suggest that Kwarteng's batshit mini-budget has had zero effect (particularly on UK gilts and borrowing costs) on the situation, especially when the markets are explicitly stating that it has, is kind of just denying reality.

Just last Friday folks in this very thread were expressing their delight at what a massive shot in the arm the mini-budget would be for UK Plc, but now it's had the opposite effect all of a sudden it's, 'Bugger all to do with the mini-budget mate, it's the dollar's fault'.

Obviously the Brexiteers had a cunning plan to make true Britons so relatively poor that they would never be able to afford to leave for other countries...

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Obviously the Brexiteers had a cunning plan to make true Britons so relatively poor that they would never be able to afford to leave for other countries...

Ahhh no you see, there's a special technique that I have learned from the Leaver Community, if anything bad happens that seems to have a credible connection to Brexit in some capacity, the answer is 'Nothing To Do With Brexit Mate' and this fixes everything, it's like magic.

We also have a new one to use, and that is 'Nothing To Do With What The Government Is Doing Mate'.

If you combine these two statements, you have created a force of denial so strong it can actually alter the flow of time.

Brexit and the UK Government are both paradoxes, in that they were/are lauded as incredibly powerful forces of change that simultaneously seem to be incapable of making any change to anything.

Now this might change if either of them ever does anything good, however, this is not a scenario that has occurred up to now and in honesty I very much suspect it never will. It's like watching a massive great dog shit sat in the middle of your lounge and remaining optimistic that eventually it will get up and do the dishes for you.

The smart thing to do, of course, is clear the shit up. We're not at that point yet though.

 

[dunover]

I can see Labour making inroads at the next General Election, perhaps swagging a seat or two in smatterings across the land. Still can't see them wrestle the Tories from power in its entirety, however. Certainly not with Starmer at the helm, nor his gobby sidekick.

And say what you will about empty promises and fairytale manifestos, the electorate will always be swayed by somewhat likeable or seemingly relatable personas, of which Labour currently have none. Failing that, a politician's outlined vision could be boring as hell, yet most would rather see things play out in its entirety before condemning them to the land of political has- beens.

This is why people are watching things unfold before casting aspersions, a la Truss & co. Chances are they may well get ousted before long, or it may be that they end up doing a fairly decent patch job, given all the UK - and the world - has just been through with the deadly Brexit.

I'd imagine the Tories' constant personnel shift must look like a demented game of musical chairs to those not of a conservative persuasion, and seemingly one disconnected, insular elite being swapped for another on a whim. Yet for all their cronyism and indistinguishable traits, they're STILL favoured by the electorate when all is said and done, mainly because Labour's gang are about as likeable as dysentery

Time will tell, of course, but I shan't be holding my breath at a Labour power-swoop, given that they, I dunno, seemingly struggle with defining what a woman is, as an example. Or trash-talk by calling their political opponents 'scum' and so forth. A sure-fire election-winner if ever I saw it!

I think Labour will win easily, barring a miracle. The 80-seat majority won by Johnson includes about 30-odd traditional Labour seats 'borrowed' to get Brexit completed. In reality the 'normal' majority they have is about 20-25 seats. The high point was winning the Hartlepool by-election a few months after the 2019 GE (traditonal Lab seat they took with a 6500 majority) when the locals were celebrating around the giant Johnson inflatable. That was their high point, must've been a crushing image for Labour. Regardless of policies, losing Johnson's charisma and persona and ability to outdo Starmer across the floor in the commons will be costly. The Tories simply don't have the personalities now, very robotic and anonymous front bench. Labour will not even need to be very good to win, which is worrying. There is the chance they could end up not quite winning and we get the nightmare scenario of a Starmer-Krankie govt.

Notwithstanding the above, there is administration fatigue anyway, with what will have been 14 years of Tory-led govt. by the time 2024 comes around, comparable to 18 years from 1979-1997 which when finally ended resulted in Labour wins, ending in the Brown disaster after 11 years.