UK Conservative Party Leadership Election

[goatwack]

Look man, I don't claim to know anything about the Isle of Man, other than this oft- repeated, historically accurate snippet

 

[mack341]

Something seriously mental going on here, treating these boat folk like visiting minor royalty! Priorities ass about face, this would not have happened in the 1980-90s.

 

[dunover]

Look man, I don't claim to know anything about the Isle of Man, other than this oft- repeated, historically accurate snippet

Isle of Moan - would you swap sunnier warmer climes of the S/SE of England for a 10% income tax rate? Emigrating there from Moanchester you wouldn't notice the weather difference I suppose. Of course, the nicer climes of the channel crown dependencies like Guernsey, Jersey and Alderney require wealth of 500k plus to live there which excludes most aside from ex-NuLiebore MP's, rich Tory MP's and 'tax efficient' businessmen. No sponging off of the welfare there.
I suppose we could negotiate with the Kurdish people traffickers in France for more fuel in their dinghies so their range extends round Cornwall, up the Irish sea to the Isle Of Moan, problem solved.
Then @ChopleyIOM could benefit from all the scientists, qualified doctors, nurses, drivers, mechanics, engineers and inventors that pack these boats as well as see a dive in the crime rate of the IoM and a vast increase in the quality of life for all residents.

 

[pinnit2014]

Something seriously mental going on here, treating these boat folk like visiting minor royalty! Priorities ass about face, this would not have happened in the 1980-90s.

View attachment 175336

I'm jumping on a Stena Line soon - think they'll let me stay at the posh hotel outside Belfast on the basis i came on a boat and am fleeing the SNP? To be fair, it's probably as legitimate

 

[ChopleyIOM]

A lot of shouting at the clouds here....

Twelve years of Tory rule, plus you all got your Brexit, and a hard one at that, yet the dinghy people are still coming and getting put up in nice hotels - sucks I guess. We can't blame the EU anymore but I see dunover has now identified that it's the UN's fault, so we have a new bogeyman at least.

Maybe we could opt out of the UN too, or perhaps blast England off into outer space and establish it as its own colony, in a sort of 'Earthexit' manoeuvre, and really show the rest of the planet who's boss.

It's natural to look around for someone or something to blame, the Tories have failed, Brexit has not only failed on its own terms but it's actively harmed the UK too, by costing it around £100bn per year in economic activity and weakening it on the world stage. Plus we lost the Dublin Regulation which as an EU member meant we could send the dinghy people back to the first safe EU country they'd arrived in (which we did do as an EU member), but we can't do that anymore.

Union Jacks all round.

Tick tock, tick tock, Brexit will get reversed, it's inevitable, and only a matter of time.

 

[megadam]

A lot of shouting at the clouds here....

Twelve years of Tory rule, plus you all got your Brexit, and a hard one at that, yet the dinghy people are still coming and getting put up in nice hotels - sucks I guess. We can't blame the EU anymore but I see dunover has now identified that it's the UN's fault, so we have a new bogeyman at least.

Maybe we could opt out of the UN too, or perhaps blast England off into outer space and establish it as its own colony, in a sort of 'Earthexit' manoeuvre, and really show the rest of the planet who's boss.

It's natural to look around for someone or something to blame, the Tories have failed, Brexit has not only failed on its own terms but it's actively harmed the UK too, by costing it around £100bn per year in economic activity and weakening it on the world stage. Plus we lost the Dublin Regulation which as an EU member meant we could send the dinghy people back to the first safe EU country they'd arrived in (which we did do as an EU member), but we can't do that anymore.

Union Jacks all round.

Tick tock, tick tock, Brexit will get reversed, it's inevitable, and only a matter of time.

Sigh I believe the point goes over Chopley's head again. The problem isn't Brexit, the problem isn't the UN. It's the implementation of said policies that have failed that would've continued to fail regardless of whoever was in charge (SnoutFucker Cameron or Marxist Corbyn). The point is that regardless of which side you pick, the lot of them are selfish self-serving incompetent individuals.

And if you truly believe Brexit will get reversed, then I'm also believing my next bonus buy on an NLC slot will be max win, honest!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Sigh I believe the point goes over Chopley's head again. The problem isn't Brexit, the problem isn't the UN. It's the implementation of said policies that have failed that would've continued to fail regardless of whoever was in charge (SnoutFucker Cameron or Marxist Corbyn). The point is that regardless of which side you pick, the lot of them are selfish self-serving incompetent individuals.

And if you truly believe Brexit will get reversed, then I'm also believing my next bonus buy on an NLC slot will be max win, honest!

We lost the Dublin Regulation when we left the EU, that's a fact. So Brexit made the situation worse.

As with all this stuff, it's complicated, with a lot of moving parts, I have never claimed that Brexit is the cause of all woes, what I will claim, because it's true, is that Brexit has made a whole lot of stuff worse than it was, or worse than it would have been without Brexit.

So on the economy for example, Covid and the war in Ukraine have hit the UK hard, same as the rest of the world, but Brexit cost us another 4-5% of GDP on top of that too, which is an extra wound we inflicted on ourselves.

Brexit will be reversed eventually, back in the Single Market and Customs Union first, which means abiding by a lot of EU rules, at which point it becomes blatantly obvious that we'd be better off fully in. Demographics will do the job in time, you only need to look at the age ranges of who voted for Brexit and who didn't to work out how it'll finish up.

If there were another referendum tomorrow then rejoin would comfortably win, and that's not going to change.

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[ChopleyIOM]

Anyway back on track, I see Sunak is now going for an interesting pitch, 'I can't help you, vote for me'.

That's got winning tactics written all over it, especially against a backdrop of recession, tax increases and reduced services.

 

[mack341]

Why's he wearing that red band on his wrist, the state is causing problems in reality when you peel it all back.

 

[TheAddict]

@mack341 I would assume the red stringy thingy is probably a Kalava/Kautuka, my geezer.

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[ChopleyIOM]

It's the secret symbol that people worth £700m or more wear when they're telling everyone else they need to tighten their belts, and that 'difficult choices' need to be made, such as waiting hours for an ambulance to arrive, and that it's only going to get worse.

 

[sufferinsilence]

Think this one belongs here

 

[ChopleyIOM]

'No human being is illegal, and I hate what is happening to this country, I hate how hateful people's language can be, I don't believe that you believe that anyone coming here deserves that treatment'.

Remember folks, we're only a couple of stages of evolution away from the monkeys, we have brutality and violence running through our veins, it's how we came to be the dominant species on the planet, but the point is we built something better, we learned to be something better, we've evolved into something better, let's not be the hatred, it's easy to hate. Understanding and compassion takes more time, a bit more of a thought process, but it's worth it.

Or we could just go back to being fucking monkeys.

 

[mack341]

let's not be the hatred, it's easy to hate.

Iirc you have said some things regarding Rees Farage and Nigel Mogg that could be mistaken for this emotion?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Iirc you have said some things regarding Rees Farage and Nigel Mogg that could be mistaken for this emotion?

I've certainly been highly critical of them both, but I'd be interested to see anything I've ever written that could be construed as 'hate speech'. Plus those are criticisms aimed at individuals based on observable actions that they've taken, rather than demonising and dehumanising an entire group of people based on nothing more than Daily Mail style rhetoric.

I'm sure we all remember Farage stood in front of this poster?

Still, at least we broke free from the EU and took back control of our borders. Lol.

 

[mack341]

 

[ChopleyIOM]

No great surprises in Hunt's statement, plus it'd been largely foreshadowed anyway.

The short version is that the UK is in recession, our GDP has taken a battering, and the country's finances are so fucked that even though we're going into recession, spending will be cut and taxes will rise because that's what we're left with after twelve years of Tory rule. (Which will exacerbate the recession and create unemployment.)

Truss and Kwarteng with their 'bold gamble' bust a £55bn hole in already faltering finances, and now it will be plugged by a combination of tax rises and spending cuts, after a gruelling decade of austerity and the massive self-inflicted wound of Brexit.

In short, shit ain't getting better any time soon.

 

[mack341]

Funny how 'GDP' is becoming a very commonly heard word these days - almost a buzz word, I don't recall it being mentioned much when we had the 2008 crash...

On the upside the self inflicted wound of brexit saves us a guaranteed £10 billion of govt tax money annually come rain or shine.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Funny how 'GDP' is becoming a very commonly heard word these days - almost a buzz word, I don't recall it being mentioned much when we had the 2008 crash...

On the upside the self inflicted wound of brexit saves us a guaranteed £10 billion of govt tax money annually come rain or shine.

£10bn annually 'saved' against a permanent annual £100bn loss of economic activity, all of which would have generated tax revenues and employment here in the UK. What a deal!

If you've got any £50 notes you'd like to swap for fivers, so you can declare, 'Look everyone, I just made a fiver!', let me know and I'll pop round

 

[goatwack]

Well, at least the delayed horror Budget of late October has now been laid bare for all to see, and it's about as expected....

That's to say, did anyone think we wouldn't have to pay back for the 'special time' of furlough and prohibition? It was always going to be this way.

So with that comes another period of austerity and clawing our way back from the depths, probably another half a generation stretch before we see the 'green shoots of recovery'! And with that, the Furlough Financial Fun times are over, and with this income-cleaving announcement forever marked as the Bat Soup Budget that nearly ruined us all

 

[mack341]

£10bn annually 'saved' against a permanent annual £100bn loss of economic activity, all of which would have generated tax revenues and employment here in the UK. What a deal!

If you've got any £50 notes you'd like to swap for fivers, so you can declare, 'Look everyone, I just made a fiver!', let me know and I'll pop round

£100 bn loss of 'economic activity' - so you're telling me there is 100bn out there in europe, itching to buy services or products from us, but the free trade deal we signed with the EU is stopping them?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

£100 bn loss of 'economic activity' - so you're telling me there is 100bn out there in europe, itching to buy services or products from us, but the free trade deal we signed with the EU is stopping them?

First off mack, it's not really a 'free trade deal', all it essentially did was agree not to impose any tariffs, but still subjected the UK to all the red tape and hassles of being a third country outside the EU and critically, outside the Single Market and Customs Union.

The damage is calculated to be around £100bn in lost economic output, every single year, denying the UK Treasury around £40bn in tax receipts, every single year.

Secondly, yes a lot of the EU would like to trade more with us than they have since Brexit, but as many UK exporters to the EU are finding, and vice versa, all the extra costs and hassle make it not worth their while. (Although we still haven't even implemented all the post-Brexit controls we should have on imports to the UK, which is partly why they found all that rotting meat being sent to the UK through Dover a couple of months ago, documented a bit earlier in this thread.)

This isn't theoretical anymore, it's not 'Project Fear', it's now established fact with a mountain of evidence to back it up - Brexit is hurting the UK economically to a massive degree. (Exactly like all those pesky experts said it would, back in 2016.)

If you haven't watched it already, I'll politely suggest you take 28 minutes out of your day to watch this, it's all there with the facts and figures to back it up.

 

[mack341]

First off mack, it's not really a 'free trade deal', all it essentially did was agree not to impose any tariffs, but still subjected the UK to all the red tape and hassles of being a third country outside the EU and critically, outside the Single Market and Customs Union.

The damage is calculated to be around £100bn in lost economic output, every single year, denying the UK Treasury around £40bn in tax receipts, every single year.

Secondly, yes a lot of the EU would like to trade more with us than they have since Brexit, but as many UK exporters to the EU are finding, and vice versa, all the extra costs and hassle make it not worth their while. (Although we still haven't even implemented all the post-Brexit controls we should have on imports to the UK, which is partly why they found all that rotting meat being sent to the UK through Dover a couple of months ago, documented a bit earlier in this thread.)

This isn't theoretical anymore, it's not 'Project Fear', it's now established fact with a mountain of evidence to back it up - Brexit is hurting the UK economically to a massive degree. (Exactly like all those pesky experts said it would, back in 2016.)

If you haven't watched it already, I'll politely suggest you take 28 minutes out of your day to watch this, it's all there with the facts and figures to back it up.



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View attachment 175939

I'm suspicious of the figure, it's a bit too convenient for memory and propaganda, a nice round 100. However let's assume it's near enough correct, it doesn't justify all the EU baggage, which in turn requires a £10 billion contribution from the uk treasury.

I'm surprised someone of the left is happy to spend that level of money on generated bureaucracy [there would always be some between countries trading but I question whether the EU model creates the minimum] while you have all sorts of desperate needs back home. This is a doubling up effect in the cost of government, the uk central civil service annual cost being around 11 billion.

On top of that you have to agree to an open door migration policy with the rest of europe, some parts being very poor and very keen to move here. That's a reality it's not being mean. Having a widely spoken language is part of that.

This is on a plaque in the visitor's centre for the european parliament, so an undemocratic federal union is the solution, headed by a president not chosen by the public, that's what it comes down to.

Remainers like the EU because they believe it's generally left wing, and socially aware etc... so they're willing to trade their national democracy, the power of their vote, for that.

The EU is a political project first and foremost using trade as the hostage, I'm not sure the average person across europe wants that or sees the need for it. [Anyway this is really a brexit thread post in the wrong place!]

 

[mack341]

Scary times, how are we going to get through a potentially cold winter if people sat at home in a mildish november, in the main watching football on low energy use led TV's, is a big worry to the system. Years ago every house would have on several 40 watt lightbulbs and crt TVs which consumed far more energy than the modern led afaik

 

[goatwack]

Thing is, those people that are energy-wasters will continue to be, as habits aren't really 'un-formed'. Then it comes down to defining what constitutes energy wastage, and whether leaving a hallway light on inadvertently deemed an environmental crime.

There's no denying everyone could consciously sharpen up when it comes to energy consumption, but human behaviour dictates it'll never be perfect. It'll get to the stage where governments dictate - and allocate - what you can use, and when, under some current trend to heal the planet. But until then, the easiest way to get people's attention is to bribe them!

What guarantee is there that the recipient of these funds even adheres to their pledge to reduce their energy usage?

 

[mack341]

Pay me not to watch england vs wales, is not actually a bad deal!

 

[slot_zombie]

What guarantee is there that the recipient of these funds even adheres to their pledge to reduce their energy usage?

It's all smart-meter monitored by the supplier.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

This is certainly a take. Nadhim apparently forgetting who's been in government for the last twelve years as we go into the worst winter of industrial action since the actual winter of discontent.

LABOUR'S NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS.

 

[megadam]

This is certainly a take. Nadhim apparently forgetting who's been in government for the last twelve years as we go into the worst winter of industrial action since the actual winter of discontent.

LABOUR'S NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS.

Surprised he didn't take the opportunity to actually say that because Labour isn't standing up to the Unions and that in turn striking is what Putin want's to see apparently that Labour are in fact supporting the Russian state. It really wouldn't surprise me, that man needs to be reminded of the bile that comes out of his mouth but also his own incredibly idiotic hypocritical actions and past.

 

[pinnit2014]

The public sector need to watch what they wish for: yes, wages are lower that private sector counterparts, but the perks are substantial: walk into a private sector company on 35k a year and ask to match 6 months full pay sick, 42 days A/L, non compulsory redundancies and 23-30% pension schemes, and they'll look at you as if your're as crazy as playing Bonanza.

When i worked there there was talk of chipping away at the t's and c's but they left as it was. Wouldn't be a surprised if they finally start to make inroads into it. I know when i left i put a monetary amount of around 10k on losing such.

As for public support for the strikes? I wouldn't say there is - talk to the guy in the street, on a waiting list for 12 months for a hip operation and ask them if they support the NHS ones and i doubt you'll hear a Solidarity with Cuba message.

Lot of private sector employees aren't having wages increase matched by the inflation rate (2.5% in this house) so when i hear of some asking for 15%, and taking a/c of the above, i choke on my battered sausage supper.

 

[mack341]

The lockdown fanatics, including 99% labour, should bear some of the blame on the [basic] financial match that lit the fire. The govt printed 400 billion to fund it all i.e. the bank of england lent them it. Of course that devalues the existing £ in people's pocket.

Then there's nick clegg blocking the building of nuclear power stations when he was in the coalition, saying they'd take till 2022 to come into use, well that would've been bloody handy right now.

Though Nadhim zahawi is not somebody I warm to, something slippery about him, has he actually achieved anything in the various depts he ran. It's all a game of who's mates with who and he was close to Boris, iirc he once claimed expenses to pay for the heating of his horse stables, talk about being out of touch or not fit in the first place to govern.

 

[goatwack]

Everyone's favourite Labour fanboy and party leader- elect Gary Neville taking a break from sipping champagne to vent his plastic empathy, in favour of nurses' miserly pay conditions in this country, at circa £36K per annum, and willing them to get that extra quid or two to alleviate their suffering.

Likening Qatari workers' plight, such as, I dunno, slavery and death, to the UK's nurses pay disputes, whilst on-air, to a ready-made footballing viewing audience trying to extract any glimpse of sense from his usual punditry.

All the while of the misguided belief that the completely unrelated issues are somehow conflated, and that he can abuse his platform to spout his ideals, lest we forget, whilst also pocketing some of that juicy Qatari cash. Hmm-hm!

We've even had Sunak tell him to stick to football, and by Jove, if only it were that easy! Yet of course, out comes the predictable congratulatory Labour back-rubbing, tone-deaf to the very notion that if Neville wanted to air his political grievances, then doing so in a footballing, professional capacity isn't what people tuned in to see.

But of course best of all is his very own empire he built, Hotel Football, where his workers' concerns over many things, including pay, tended to fall on deaf ears. How could this be, when he is such a champion of the people, I hear you cry? ?

All herald Keir's protege, for the boy did good!

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[pinnit2014]

And then there is Lineker - a guy so enraged with the SA 2010 and the worker issues then, he gets out his moral compass by, er, honouring his BBC contract.

Respect for them if they simply didn't turn up to commentate but did that they did.

That picture on the right is worse than any Boris bad hair day

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Here's what twelve years of austerity look like.

New Labour weren't perfect, not by a long chalk, but in 2010 you could easily see your doctor, and if you went to A&E you were almost guaranteed to be seen within four hours. If you called an ambulance you'd almost always have one at your door in a few minutes if you were in the most serious category for attendance.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Yes I know it's only an opinion poll and we're two years out from a general election, but remember there will be no economic growth/recovery in that time because Brexit has made it impossible, so it's easy to see something like this sticking.

Add in renewed austerity, a collapsing NHS, a winter of discontent with the general public largely supporting the strikers (not everyone supports them, but a decent majority does, especially when you get to the nurses and ambulance drivers and suchlike), stagnating (or declining) wages, rising interest rates, rampant inflation, and a general sense that nothing in the UK bloody well works properly anymore - and all after twelve years of Tory rule, I can see these numbers, or something like them, making it to the next general election.

If I had to pick a single original sin, a single event that has precipitated all of this, it would be Brexit. It's eaten four Tory prime ministers already, and it's going to do for Sunak as well, to make an impressive tally of five in eight years.

Thank goodness we avoided chaos with Ed Miliband and his slightly awkward way of eating a bacon sandwich.

 

[mack341]

There is probably a general feeling out there that the tories are tired and no longer give a sh*t enough to put the effort and energy in, just need a bit more sleaze revealed between now and 2024/25 and they'll have outstayed their welcome.

Not that I'd look forward to labour, they can be like the EU on steroids, trying to make everything and everybody more woke, which will always take priority over being more well off.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I've been saying this for a while, but we've got the evidence to back it up now, people have stopped becoming right wing as they get older.

Demographics will do for the Tories the same as it will do for Brexit, all it's going to take is time.

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The argument is a simple one. It is that as people get older they are no longer moving to the right but are, instead, moving leftward. The millennial generation (born 1981 - 1996) are the first to display this trend.

Why? The reasons seem obvious:

• Reduced access to housing
• No jobs for life
• No pension security
• Student debt
• Climate change
• Growing up with austerity

I might also add, better education may play a part, because it always does on this issue.

There are consequences:

• The older vote will no longer be as right-wing
• Recruiting able people will be harder for the right
• The left can think about the long term

 

[dunover]

I've been saying this for a while, but we've got the evidence to back it up now, people have stopped becoming right wing as they get older.

Demographics will do for the Tories the same as it will do for Brexit, all it's going to take is time.

View attachment 177770

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The argument is a simple one. It is that as people get older they are no longer moving to the right but are, instead, moving leftward. The millennial generation (born 1981 - 1996) are the first to display this trend.

Why? The reasons seem obvious:

• Reduced access to housing
• No jobs for life
• No pension security
• Student debt
• Climate change
• Growing up with austerity

I might also add, better education may play a part, because it always does on this issue.

There are consequences:

• The older vote will no longer be as right-wing
• Recruiting able people will be harder for the right
• The left can think about the long term

You mean you are now saying not all pensioners are racists?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Well they're not pensioners yet, but they will be.

 

[mack341]

You'd have to define what being conservative means, and its opposite, to know whether this is going to be a good thing.

Looking around and remembering the 80s when society as a whole was more conservative [incl labour voting families] I'd say a further move away from this spells a worse future, more breakdown.

There is no future multicultural utopia with open borders, EU membership, and full blossoming money trees which the govt can shake and make everyone happy.

Look at the US they've got a democrat president, head of a very 'progressive' party, notice anything better yet?

 

[dunover]

You'd have to define what being conservative means, and its opposite, to know whether this is going to be a good thing.

Looking around and remembering the 80s when society as a whole was more conservative [incl labour voting families] I'd say a further move away from this spells a worse future, more breakdown.

There is no future multicultural utopia with open borders, EU membership, and full blossoming money trees which the govt can shake and make everyone happy.

Look at the US they've got a democrat president, head of a very 'progressive' party, notice anything better yet?

Is he actually alive though? Or is he a cadaver operated by electric pulses to simulate human movement and speech?

 

[goatwack]

Today's version of 'liberal' and 'progressive' is anything but, and more steeped in shutting down anything not beholden to one's own personal ideals. Whereas those accepting of different viewpoints, lifestyles and ideals, whilst mindful of others' choices used to be called libertarian - a dying breed if ever I saw one!

But as mentioned, society as a whole was more conservative in their values, based largely off religious principles. Now, religion's pretty much had it, and so people veer off into 'self' and what they can get for themselves, over anything.

Yet ultimately it'll take some convincing to tell me that human behaviour isn't by and large rather predictable, no matter how many polls, graphs or surveys you present to me. It's just human nature that on the whole, old(er) people lean on conservative beliefs, part-consolidation, part-having seen it all before, and mostly by seeing that ultimately, conservative beliefs have endured greater than many others when all's said and done!

So no, I don't believe there's a surge towards liberalism by the senior folk (even the racist ones)

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The polls, graphs, surveys, and all the other research that's gone into this makes it very clear that Millenials are ageing differently to the generations before them, they are not becoming more socially conservative as they get older, and they are not tending towards the right wing. (Obviously it's too early to tell in many regards about 'Generation Z', but the indications at this stage are they're going to be a whole extra step towards left/liberal tendencies from Millenials.)

And it's not hard to see why, the old social contract has been stripped away from them, whilst current pensioners (often right wing and Brexity!) keep their triple-locked pension (which is part of the old post-war social contract), Millenials get student debt, insecure employment with few rights, often can't even dream of ever owning their home and instead face a lifetime of getting reamed by private landlords, whilst growing up in a country plagued with austerity. And when they get to pensionable age they almost certainly won't have a decent occupational pension and will have to make do on whatever is left of the state pension by then.

All the stuff the current socially conservative (and also often Conservative as in politically) older cohort took for granted throughout their working lives, are being denied the younger generations, is it any wonder they look at the current political system, and particularly the Tories after twelve years of their rule, and decide this shit just isn't working for them?

Moreover, all this clutching of pearls about women with penises and whatnot, believe me, it just isn't even a thing for younger folks, they care far more about the planet burning up in their lifetime and wondering how on earth they'll ever be able to own even the most modest of homes whilst gaining employment that's moderately secure and affords them a half-decent lifestyle.

The Boomer generation, who actually benefited most from the structure and surety of the old post-war social contract (which both Tory and Labour governments broadly signed up to), the contract which easily allowed them to buy houses on average incomes, build up a reasonable amount of wealth (which of course they then want to protect), have now pulled up the ladder behind them and vote for Tory governments that deny the younger generations all the stuff they personally benefited from.

The research on this is pretty clear, and the old assumptions about what happens to folks in terms of their politics and social views as they age are failing. (This is of course, an entirely good thing.)

 

[mack341]

The polls, graphs, surveys, and all the other research that's gone into this makes it very clear that Millenials are ageing differently to the generations before them, they are not becoming more socially conservative as they get older, and they are not tending towards the right wing. (Obviously it's too early to tell in many regards about 'Generation Z', but the indications at this stage are they're going to be a whole extra step towards left/liberal tendencies from Millenials.)

And it's not hard to see why, the old social contract has been stripped away from them, whilst current pensioners (often right wing and Brexity!) keep their triple-locked pension (which is part of the old post-war social contract), Millenials get student debt, insecure employment with few rights, often can't even dream of ever owning their home and instead face a lifetime of getting reamed by private landlords, whilst growing up in a country plagued with austerity. And when they get to pensionable age they almost certainly won't have a decent occupational pension and will have to make do on whatever is left of the state pension by then.

All the stuff the current socially conservative (and also often Conservative as in politically) older cohort took for granted throughout their working lives, are being denied the younger generations, is it any wonder they look at the current political system, and particularly the Tories after twelve years of their rule, and decide this shit just isn't working for them?

Moreover, all this clutching of pearls about women with penises and whatnot, believe me, it just isn't even a thing for younger folks, they care far more about the planet burning up in their lifetime and wondering how on earth they'll ever be able to own even the most modest of homes whilst gaining employment that's moderately secure and affords them a half-decent lifestyle.

The Boomer generation, who actually benefited most from the structure and surety of the old post-war social contract (which both Tory and Labour governments broadly signed up to), the contract which easily allowed them to buy houses on average incomes, build up a reasonable amount of wealth (which of course they then want to protect), have now pulled up the ladder behind them and vote for Tory governments that deny the younger generations all the stuff they personally benefited from.

The research on this is pretty clear, and the old assumptions about what happens to folks in terms of their politics and social views as they age are failing. (This is of course, an entirely good thing.)

So are you saying you'd like the post-war social contract back, I'm not entirely sure how or why it went [the reasons being valid or not] however I don't think it's as simple as: Tory governments that deny the younger generations all the stuff they personally benefited from.

If Labour are to succeed for the younger generations [on all those things you've listed, secure employment, half decent lifestyle etc...] where the recent tory govts have failed, then it will need more than a few things in the economy tweaked, surely?

Something I read tonight was that the high cost of energy is going to carry on until 2030, with the kind of prices we have now being normal and not going back down to 2019 levels, that's a massive challenge to overcome. If labour had a solution to that one issue, they'd be voted in tomorrow.

 

[dunover]

The polls, graphs, surveys, and all the other research that's gone into this makes it very clear that Millenials are ageing differently to the generations before them, they are not becoming more socially conservative as they get older, and they are not tending towards the right wing. (Obviously it's too early to tell in many regards about 'Generation Z', but the indications at this stage are they're going to be a whole extra step towards left/liberal tendencies from Millenials.)

And it's not hard to see why, the old social contract has been stripped away from them, whilst current pensioners (often right wing and Brexity!) keep their triple-locked pension (which is part of the old post-war social contract), Millenials get student debt, insecure employment with few rights, often can't even dream of ever owning their home and instead face a lifetime of getting reamed by private landlords, whilst growing up in a country plagued with austerity. And when they get to pensionable age they almost certainly won't have a decent occupational pension and will have to make do on whatever is left of the state pension by then.

All the stuff the current socially conservative (and also often Conservative as in politically) older cohort took for granted throughout their working lives, are being denied the younger generations, is it any wonder they look at the current political system, and particularly the Tories after twelve years of their rule, and decide this shit just isn't working for them?

Moreover, all this clutching of pearls about women with penises and whatnot, believe me, it just isn't even a thing for younger folks, they care far more about the planet burning up in their lifetime and wondering how on earth they'll ever be able to own even the most modest of homes whilst gaining employment that's moderately secure and affords them a half-decent lifestyle.

The Boomer generation, who actually benefited most from the structure and surety of the old post-war social contract (which both Tory and Labour governments broadly signed up to), the contract which easily allowed them to buy houses on average incomes, build up a reasonable amount of wealth (which of course they then want to protect), have now pulled up the ladder behind them and vote for Tory governments that deny the younger generations all the stuff they personally benefited from.

The research on this is pretty clear, and the old assumptions about what happens to folks in terms of their politics and social views as they age are failing. (This is of course, an entirely good thing.)

The 'social contract' regarding housing is quite simply down to the fact demand has far outstripped supply due to one thing and one thing only - the massive poulation increase that successive governments of all colours have allowed to happen using various excuses to try and justify them abrogating responsibility. Some fools will say 'well build more' but we simply don't have room and there is a quite understandable reluctance to concrete over green land plus new housing for purchase will simply mirror the unaffordable levels of now. Accommodation is the biggest expense of any family over a lifetime and when this rockets, everything else shrinks accordingly.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The 'social contract' regarding housing is quite simply down to the fact demand has far outstripped supply due to one thing and one thing only - the massive poulation increase that successive governments of all colours have allowed to happen using various excuses to try and justify them abrogating responsibility. Some fools will say 'well build more' but we simply don't have room and there is a quite understandable reluctance to concrete over green land plus new housing for purchase will simply mirror the unaffordable levels of now. Accommodation is the biggest expense of any family over a lifetime and when this rockets, everything else shrinks accordingly.

We've done this before, with the stats to back it up, the UK isn't particularly densely populated by international standards, there is 'room' for more.

But putting that to one side, because we won't agree, what about all the other stuff Millenials and Gen-Z aren't getting that earlier generations did? Secure and stable employment, decently paid, backed by solid worker rights and ample benefits such as paid holidays and sick pay.

A well-funded and highly available public healthcare system they can rely on, the opportunity to go onto further education without going into huge amounts of debt, a sensible market for rented accommodation (that no longer exists because the Tories flogged the public housing stock off, most of which is now rented back out by private landlords at exorbitant rents).

(The argument about home ownership largely goes away if people could at least rent a half-decent property for a reasonable amount of money, the Tories literally voted down a bill in Parliament that demanded, rather unambitiously, that rented property should be 'fit for human habitation' -

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)

Don't forget Brexit, this was very much something that older people voted for, the young didn't want it, at all, they had it 'done' to them and they very much see it as a Tory project (which of course it was). Their ability to work and travel freely in the EU taken away from them, against their will, don't underestimate how much the young resent Brexit and blame the Tories for it. The Brexity types saw taking away freedom of movement from others as a win, the young saw it as their freedom being taken away. (Which of course it was.)

Climate change isn't on the radar for many old people (some of whom deny it exists, but either way figure they'll be dead before it fucks them anyway), but again, for the young, this is a massive hot-button issue and they see the Tories constantly play it down, deny it, and vote against measure after measure that would put the UK on a more sustainable energy footing going forward. (Labour do actually have some good policies here.)

That's just a starter for ten list, I mean, really, is it difficult to see how if you were born in the 1980s or later, there's a very good chance you're not going to be right wing? Moreover, these people equate 'social conservatism' with a system that served the older generations very well, but has done nothing more than fuck them over and leave them in shit, insecure jobs, piles of debt if they dared to go to university, and at the mercy of rip-off landlords who aren't even compelled to make their properties fit for human habitation because Tory MPs (many of whom are private landlords, go figure), voted the legislation down.

They look at the psychodrama of, for example, the Tory party leadership contest where the main desirable criteria seemed to be a willingness to beat up on trans people (look how quickly Grant Shapps saw himself out of the running for saying something actually sensible about it, and then later on in the campaign Penny Mordaunt as well), and they see absolutely nothing whatsoever that chimes with anything in their lives, and indeed find it actively repulsive.

You know what folks, I think we've cracked the mystery of the graphs shown above! Good job!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

If Labour are to succeed for the younger generations [on all those things you've listed, secure employment, half decent lifestyle etc...] where the recent tory govts have failed, then it will need more than a few things in the economy tweaked, surely?

Indeed mack, as I have previously covered.

UK Conservative Party Leadership Election - Page 11 - Casinomeister Forum

 

[mack341]

The rules, procedures, and understandings of the postwar social contract were designed for a world in which practical forces kept businesses anchored in geographical place, reinforcing the sense of obligation that many corporate leaders felt toward workers and communities. That being said, those arrangements were spectacularly successful in creating a broad, accessible, and secure middle class, and in bringing unprecedented transparency and fairness to the hazardous relations between individuals (whether customers, workers, neighbors, or shareholders) and corporations.

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^^ If true then it is precisely things like the EU that have made the social contract, or post war consensus as I've also seen it called, a thing of the past, capital can now move to wherever it can make the most profit. The companies that stick around then cannot compete [unless they receive help from their govts, like renault].

And also hence multinationals plonking their headquarters in low corporation tax places such as ireland or luxembourg, while they suck up millions of revenue from everywhere in europe.

The EU as a panacea for all the problems and difficulties of the less well off is a myth, in fact it made life worse as they had to wait in line more for access to essential public services, and compete for local jobs against an influx of new arrivals. [some willing to house share with another 12, and sending as much money home as possible]

 

[TheAddict]

"Don't forget Brexit"

You're making damn sure that'll never happen mate

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I'm not quite sure when The Sun think they're going with this, 'Everything is absolutely crap, the country's fucked, Rishi will put it right'.

It'd maybe get some traction if the Tories hadn't been in power for twelve (now going into thirteen!) uninterrupted years at this point.

BORIS BOOSTERISM, that's what the UK needs, like the amazing Brexit he BOOSTED the country into and immediately lopped 5% off our GDP, forever. (Or until the mistake is corrected.)

This is the problem the Tories have now, there's no one else left to blame, it's the UK in ruins, and them having quite clearly been in the driver's seat all along, as we go into year thirteen of their disastrous rule. Alas for them they couldn't do what Thatcher did and sell off all the family silver to raise a pile of cash, because it turns out you can only sell all that shit once.

Anyway, happy new year, at least in another two years this shower of calamitously incompetent, corrupt and cruel clowns will be out the door.