UK Conservative Party Leadership Election

ChopleyIOM

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Labour Conference voted to make PR a manifesto pledge yesterday, although Starmer almost certainly (and stupidly) won't endorse it.

I'd like to see PR, there's a consistent majority for centre-left parties in the UK, the Tories basically never poll over 50%, so getting PR locked in as the UK's voting system would essentially freeze the Tories out of being the sole party of government, possibly forever - and this would actually better reflect the political views of the UK's population.

FPTP is a perverse voting system, the single main argument in favour of it was that it produced strong, accountable, stable governments - so that one's been blown right out of the water over the last few years. (Plus, who voted for Truss and her insane crackpot agenda?) It also concentrates the effective electoral battleground into a relatively small number of potential swing constituencies.

PR is not without its own problems, but FPTP is dire. The other problem with FPTP, of course, is that a party that manages to win under it, is less inclined to want to change it. (i.e. New Labour.)
 

pinnit2014

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The SNP seem to be an outlier in that respect - they've had 15 yrs of power (well, helped by the Greens) but i don't think there's been much dipping of their support - though, w/o checking, i don't see much increase in recent years either- appears to have gone a big stagnant i think (hence their looking to the 'yoof' vote to try and get Indy over the line). -pretty much bullet proof up here with the Tories playing into their hands which will only get worse with the Trickster Truss at the helm.

Numerous examples in the years in places that even years of prosperity can still see you lose - people, being people, sometimes go 'change it up'
 

ChopleyIOM

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The sheer force of will it must be taking Rishi Sunak not to scream I TOLD YOU SO all day, every day, is incredible.

He wrote this just last month.

The UK government is currently paying more to borrow money than Italy or Greece.

Also, and what isn't perhaps widely realised yet, is that UK banks are being charged more to borrow on the international money markets too, that's why they've pulled their fixed rate deals, they simply hadn't budgeted for what they're now being charged to borrow.

Irrespective of what the BoE do, the international markets are moving against UK banks.

We're in a 'worst case scenario' now, and then some.

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goatwack

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Definitely a bad time to be taking out a mortgage at this point, with quite a few banks pulling house loans, against the perpetually plunging pound.

Great for savers (apparently), terrible if needing to borrow money for any meaningful financial binding contract or higher purchase!

It's fair to say that you'd think the markets would stabilize at some point, but with traders not quite having had their fill of profiteering off the back of this currency cockup, Truss & co really need to get the ball rolling before the £Pound becomes more worthless than a nickel embedded in chewing gum :eek2:
 

ChopleyIOM

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Definitely a bad time to be taking out a mortgage at this point, with quite a few banks pulling house loans, against the perpetually plunging pound.

Great for savers (apparently), terrible if needing to borrow money for any meaningful financial binding contract or higher purchase!

It's fair to say that you'd think the markets would stabilize at some point, but with traders not quite having had their fill of profiteering off the back of this currency cockup, Truss & co really need to get the ball rolling before the £Pound becomes more worthless than a nickel embedded in chewing gum :eek2:

The pound appears to have stabilised (if you can call it that....) at around where it was at the end of last week, but this only seems to be because the markets are now pricing in some pretty serious interest rate rises.

Depending on who you listen to, base rates could be around 6% by early next year, that will put mortgage rates in the range of 7.5%-8%, which will be completely unaffordable for many (and will also feed into higher rents). There are around 350K people coming off fixed rates every quarter.

Interest rate rises are great for those with significant savings of course, but by definition those people already have a decent wedge of cash so getting a bit more in interest won't feed into any sort of economic growth.

So the choice the MPC faces is either to defend sterling and risk a banking crisis, or let it fall further and accept that inflation will remain above target as far as the eye can see. There are no good options.

Either way all that fresh government debt that's just been taken on to give a bung to the rich is costing eye-watering amounts of money.

Nice job Kwasi!

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ChopleyIOM

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It was you blaming Brexit for the long queues in Dover. If that was the case, then where are those queues now?

Perfect case in point with regards to my response to this (same as I said over in the Brexit thread), in that these are complex situations with many factors in play, of which Brexit is one.

Jacques Damas is the CEO of Eurostar, he's released this letter today.

Multiple contributory factors in play, Brexit is one of them, capacity is down 30% from 2019 levels when the UK was still in transition. Note he explicitly states that even when running flat out, the extra checks are reducing their throughput from 2,200 people per hour to 1,500 people per hour.

Unless the CEO of Eurostar is making it up as well?

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interlog

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So Eurostar decided to close some stations because it was/is not economical sustainable because demand and yield is lower and have been asked to explain themselves. Of course he is going to have to justify his reasons for this and if he/they can put some blame on Brexit then that is a tick in the box.

At the end of the day, my opinion of it is that Eurostar can do what it wants and should have told the Government to fuck right off puttings its oar in their business.
 

interlog

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The pound appears to have stabilised (if you can call it that....) at around where it was at the end of last week, but this only seems to be because the markets are now pricing in some pretty serious interest rate rises.
No shit Sherlock. That is exactly why the $ gained so much traction against the other currencies as I mentioned yesterday. You pay high interest you are going to have people investing in the currency (the US interest rate is much higher than others and is set to rise further too)
 

ChopleyIOM

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So Eurostar decided to close some stations because it was/is not economical sustainable because demand and yield is lower and have been asked to explain themselves. Of course he is going to have to justify his reasons for this and if he/they can put some blame on Brexit then that is a tick in the box.

At the end of the day, my opinion of it is that Eurostar can do what it wants and should have told the Government to fuck right off puttings its oar in their business.

I'm impressed, in the Brexit thread you knew more about running the port of Dover than the guy who actually runs the port of Dover, and now you know more about Eurostar than the CEO of Eurostar.

So he's either lying to Chair Of The Transport Select Committee or he's so incompetent he doesn't know what he's saying is wrong - i.e. Having to do the extra checks now we're out of the EU isn't slowing things down, and it's all his imagination.

He literally says in black and white that the only reason there aren't massive queues is because they're running a reduced service, even though the demand is there, because they can't process people fast enough, and you're just like, 'Nahhh, load of bollocks'.

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CEO of Eurostar clearly doesn't count as someone with first hand experience. interlog knows best.
 

interlog

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I'm impressed, in the Brexit thread you knew more about running the port of Dover than the guy who actually runs the port of Dover, and now you know more about Eurostar than the CEO of Eurostar.

So he's either lying to Chair Of The Transport Select Committee or he's so incompetent he doesn't know what he's saying is wrong - i.e. Having to do the extra checks now we're out of the EU isn't slowing things down, and it's all his imagination.

He literally says in black and white that the only reason there aren't massive queues is because they're running a reduced service, even though the demand is there, because they can't process people fast enough, and you're just like, 'Nahhh, load of bollocks'.

View attachment 173138

CEO of Eurostar clearly doesn't count as someone with first hand experience. interlog knows best.

And he also says that there is no money to be made opening up the stations that he closed.

And don't put words in my mouth, I never said that he lied or is incompetent. He is justifying his actions and will use any reason to back that up.
 

goatwack

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Labour MP Rupa Huq seemingly suspended for calling Kwarteng, quote, 'superficially black', in another stunning show of name-calling by the party of tolerance!

But it'll come as no surprise that once again, those shouting the loudest about their virtues and acceptance of all creeds and peoples just so happen to see everything in colour, whilst those who don't, tend to - you know - not even notice :laugh:

At this point the old principle stays true, let the nutters spout their nonsense long enough and people will simply switch off, or watch with toe-curling predictability as they utter some imbecility, as they just can't keep their emotions in check!

Go Labour! The people's party! Woo!
 

ChopleyIOM

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Labour MP Rupa Huq seemingly suspended for calling Kwarteng, quote, 'superficially black', in another stunning show of name-calling by the party of tolerance!

But it'll come as no surprise that once again, those shouting the loudest about their virtues and acceptance of all creeds and peoples just so happen to see everything in colour, whilst those who don't, tend to - you know - not even notice :laugh:

At this point the old principle stays true, let the nutters spout their nonsense long enough and people will simply switch off, or watch with toe-curling predictability as they utter some imbecility, as they just can't keep their emotions in check!

Go Labour! The people's party! Woo!

She's already had the party whip removed, made a formal apology to Kwarteng and retracted the comment, and been given a public bollocking by a Labour Party spokesperson, so pretty swift action and apology.
 

ChopleyIOM

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And he also says that there is no money to be made opening up the stations that he closed.

And don't put words in my mouth, I never said that he lied or is incompetent. He is justifying his actions and will use any reason to back that up.

But if they're the actual reasons then it's a valid reason, it's not a 'tick in the box', what he's saying is their throughput is much reduced thanks to (amongst other things) the extra Brexit checks, so they're having to concentrate their resources where they can get the most passengers on trains.

Same as with the Dover stuff, Brexit isn't the only reason, but it's a contributory factor, that's literally the only point I'm trying to make here since you always throw 'Nothing To Do With Brexit' at this stuff, whilst also claiming I blame it all on Brexit, which I don't.
 

ChopleyIOM

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Back with the the financial masterminds Truss and Kwarteng, the UK's 30-year bond gilts rise above 5% for the first time in twenty years.

For comparison other countries are currently paying:

US 3.8%
Canada 3.15%
France 2.95%
Germany 2.1%

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This is quite the assessment:

 

Siohmy

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I think it’s pretty obvious that the minute Truss got in we were, at best, in trouble as a nation. At worst, well, what is going on.
Other than seemingly the lack of some semblance of financial planning the erosion of all confidence in the government is massively destructive.

Even if they reverse some of the cuts the damage has already been done. No one will believe the current incumbents have the skills to get us out of this mess.
 

ChopleyIOM

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And now the IMF are giving us a telling off as well.

This is what happens when ideologues with no actual understanding of the consequences of their actions get their hands on the levers of power.

The one thing that's giving me some consolation at the moment, as the Tories do their best to flush the UK down the toilet, is that Labour have been announcing a lot of really good, solid policies at their conference this week. Yeah they're a centre-left party at best under Starmer, but at least they're looking electable, they're being serious, and they've got something they can carry forward to the electorate at the next election.

Let's just hope Truss and her cabal of headbangers don't completely burn everything to the ground in the interim.

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mcgameboy

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Politics in the politics thread, whatever next!

Mr Kinnock awards your post 3/10.
This Mr. Kinnock? You know, the one who can't even go for a walk on a Brighton beach with his missus without allowing this to happen.....



I mean to say......imagine getting outwitted by the bloody TIDE of all things. What a fucking clumsy ginger twat!

I'm really supposed to accept a mark of 3/10 from that inept Welsh bellend?

Uhm....how bout HELL DA FUQ NOOOOOO?
 

ChopleyIOM

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Following on from the IMF's warning, and Moody's downgrading the UK's outlook to 'credit negative' (that happened overnight), we can all take some comfort from the fact that unelected bureaucrat Lord David Frost, 'Mr Brexit Deal', the most wrong man in the history of the universe, thinks that everything will be fine.

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Webzcas

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That's the problem with gambles, sometimes you lose them.

View attachment 173076

And all that new government debt Kwarteng took on to give to the rich, it's getting a lot more expensive, in real time.

View attachment 173077
Yep, but like the MSM you are silent when it went back up. BTW Euro is still tanked against the $. Global energy crisis, war in Ukraine and all the money printed to pay people to stay at home during the pandemic all to blame.
 

ChopleyIOM

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Yep, but like the MSM you are silent when it went back up. BTW Euro is still tanked against the $. Global energy crisis, war in Ukraine and all the money printed to pay people to stay at home during the pandemic all to blame.

Literally yesterday, man.

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ChopleyIOM

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Hey I've got a question, has anyone seen Liz Truss since last Friday? Has she taken a leaf out of Johnson's book and gone to hide in a fridge somewhere?

The Tory party elected a clueless amateur to the highest office in the land and the markets have stopped her in her tracks before she was able to completely blow everything up, what can Truss and Kwarteng even do now? They have the 'screeching U-turn' option (not usually a favoured choice of loony ideologues), they don't really have a 'double down' option because that would be end game for the UK economy, so they appear to have gone for the 'hide and stay silent option', which isn't very, erm, courageous.

I wish I could stop being right about this stuff, because every time I am, the UK gets shafted in some new and unusual way. (See also, Brexit.)

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ChopleyIOM

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Absolutely nailed it.

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Case in point, Hannan straight onto IT MUST BE SOMEONE ELSE'S FAULT.

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dunover

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Hey I've got a question, has anyone seen Liz Truss since last Friday? Has she taken a leaf out of Johnson's book and gone to hide in a fridge somewhere?

The Tory party elected a clueless amateur to the highest office in the land and the markets have stopped her in her tracks before she was able to completely blow everything up, what can Truss and Kwarteng even do now? They have the 'screeching U-turn' option (not usually a favoured choice of loony ideologues), they don't really have a 'double down' option because that would be end game for the UK economy, so they appear to have gone for the 'hide and stay silent option', which isn't very, erm, courageous.

I wish I could stop being right about this stuff, because every time I am, the UK gets shafted in some new and unusual way. (See also, Brexit.)

View attachment 173162
You omitted 'racists' this time around I see...
 

ChopleyIOM

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You omitted 'racists' this time around I see...

In fairness not all of them will be.

Still, as an electoral cohort to decide the UK's prime minister, I'd be hard pushed to think of one less well suited to the task.

At every stage of the leadership contest they eliminated the least worst options, until Truss was the last one standing.

Rather like Brexit, her crackpot ideas are fantastic right up until the moment they come into contact with reality, at which point they crumble into dust.
 

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