North Korea and US politics

[mack341]

I think Germany's overall trade balance surplus for the years 2007-2017 added up is about $2,777 billion, getting on for nearly three trillion dollars, if america's annual trade deficit is say $400 billion on average for the same period, then in comparison that is a 4 trillion dollar deficit over 10 years.

Can this go on for ever, Germany and other countries using some of their surplus to lend money back to America, Congress raises the debt ceiling, America makes greater interest payments on the loans, rinse and repeat, it's not really a formula for making a country 'great' and at some point somethings got to give.

But it will probably require broader changes than just using tariffs as there reciprocal, I suppose in an ideal Trump world the countries with a trade surplus, instead of lending the USA money, would instead purchase services and goods from america?

 

[Harry_BKK]

I think Germany's overall trade balance in total for the years 2007-2017 added up is about $2,777 billion, getting on for nearly three trillion dollars, if america's annual trade deficit is say $400 billion on average for the same period, then in comparison that is a 4 trillion dollar deficit over 10 years.

Can this go on for ever, Germany and other countries use some of their surplus to lend money to back to America, Congress raises the debt ceiling, America makes greater interest payments on the loans, rinse and repeat, its not a formula for making a country 'great' and at some point somethings got to give.

But it will probably require broader changes than just using tariffs as there reciprocal, I suppose in an ideal Trump world the countries with a trade surplus, instead of lending the USA money, would instead purchase services and goods from america?

The US has to start living within their means and reduce borrowing. Obama hiked it by trillions due to the financial crisis, somewhat understandable. Mr. T will hike it because he gives trillions to the corporations and increased public spending, and that while the economy is doing well. That money has to come from somwhere. Certainly not from the "above 4% sustained growth" fantasy they have taken as basis for their calculations.

One of the issues is that Mr. T is trying to push low-value goods - agricultural, fossil fuels etc. instead of services and high-profit goods. Clear indicators are the scrapping or severely rolling back of the Clear Water Act, Clean Air Act (don't know the exact name) and most recentlly the Endangered Species Act.

Its almost as if he wants the US to be an exporter of goods where profit margins are very low to start with. Instead of investing into educating people for future high-profit jobs, he tries to create more in the low-value sector (he even reduced the education budget significantly). And all to get some votes from the rust belt and other areas.

However, you just need to visit a modern farm in the US, or anywhere else for that matter. The amount of workers has been slashed in the last two decades. Big machinery, smart controls (e.g. irrigation) etc. have eliminated tons of jobs. Now instead of improving the skills of those who lost their jobs, Mr. T is trying to get them back onto the fields.

Let's assume he is successful and an additional 100,000 workers get a job in agriculture. Just one drought, one crash on the global exchanges or one natural disaster and the absolute majority is back on the street. In between, Mr. T has wasted billions of $ of taxpayer money subsidizing the farmers. How is that "MAGA"?


The second issue is that for decades the US was at the forefront of the globalization drive with US corporations massively increasing their profits at the expense of first and foremost the worker in the 3rd-world countries who gets paid less $1/hour and second, at the expense of the millions of US workers who lost their manufacturing job. Did any of those extra profits end up in the pockets of the workers or were used to advance the skill set of those who were laid off? No, hardly a dime.

Plus, it resulted in complex supply chains that fan over dozens of countries in some cases. Mr. T is now saying something like: "No, that should be all produced/manufactured in the US". It will not work!

Just take this example: BMW is the biggest car exporter from the US (in $ value) and Mr. T is now hitting the very same company with extra tariffs! Where is the logic? If it indeed happens, then BMW will just shift their production to other countries and the big loser is yet again the blue-collar worker in the US. Yet Mr. T will sell it as a "win".

 

[slotplayer]

The US has to start living within their means and reduce borrowing. Obama hiked it by trillions due to the financial crisis, somewhat understandable. Mr. T will hike it because he gives trillions to the corporations and increased public spending, and that while the economy is doing well. That money has to come from somwhere. Certainly not from the "above 4% sustained growth" fantasy they have taken as basis for their calculations.

One of the issues is that Mr. T is trying to push low-value goods - agricultural, fossil fuels etc. instead of services and high-profit goods. Clear indicators are the scrapping or severely rolling back of the Clear Water Act, Clean Air Act (don't know the exact name) and most recentlly the Endangered Species Act.

Its almost as if he wants the US to be an exporter of goods where profit margins are very low to start with. Instead of investing into educating people for future high-profit jobs, he tries to create more in the low-value sector (he even reduced the education budget significantly). And all to get some votes from the rust belt and other areas.

However, you just need to visit a modern farm in the US, or anywhere else for that matter. The amount of workers has been slashed in the last two decades. Big machinery, smart controls (e.g. irrigation) etc. have eliminated tons of jobs. Now instead of improving the skills of those who lost their jobs, Mr. T is trying to get them back onto the fields.

Let's assume he is successful and an additional 100,000 workers get a job in agriculture. Just one drought, one crash on the global exchanges or one natural disaster and the absolute majority is back on the street. In between, Mr. T has wasted billions of $ of taxpayer money subsidizing the farmers. How is that "MAGA"?


The second issue is that for decades the US was at the forefront of the globalization drive with US corporations massively increasing their profits at the expense of first and foremost the worker in the 3rd-world countries who gets paid less $1/hour and second, at the expense of the millions of US workers who lost their manufacturing job. Did any of those extra profits end up in the pockets of the workers or were used to advance the skill set of those who were laid off? No, hardly a dime.

Plus, it resulted in complex supply chains that fan over dozens of countries in some cases. Mr. T is now saying something like: "No, that should be all produced/manufactured in the US". It will not work!

Just take this example: BMW is the biggest car exporter from the US (in $ value) and Mr. T is now hitting the very same company with extra tariffs! Where is the logic? If it indeed happens, then BMW will just shift their production to other countries and the big loser is yet again the blue-collar worker in the US. Yet Mr. T will sell it as a "win".

I don't know what Obama spend 10 T on, the 2009 recovery act was $787 billion.

I've listened to many job reports and for years the jobs gains were always in the medical and retail industries. I'll have to take a closer look to be 100% sure but just from overhearing the jobs reports on the business news I've noticed a gain in manufacturing jobs in the last several reports while in previous reports it was always manufacturing job losses.

They just released the numbers this morning. The economy did hit 4.1 GDP 2nd quarter, sustainable, probably not. A 3% yearly average is I bet. CNN/MSNBC had to cover it and they did not look too happy.

Some say a big crash is coming so I'm planning accordingly.

Trump did an apprenticeship program earlier in the week. Didn't get any coverage except on Fox Business. I I saw it live. It was okay, nothing grand but one young lady was thrilled she's going to be an electrician in 2 years. There are like 6 million vocational jobs here that are unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.

Supposed to be 6 more steel opening. We'll see if it happens.

 

[goatwack]

I wish you'd stop using Mr T, Harry. I'm easily confused, and keep thinking he's done something wrong

 

[slotplayer]

The second issue is that for decades the US was at the forefront of the globalization drive with US corporations massively increasing their profits at the expense of first and foremost the worker in the 3rd-world countries who gets paid less $1/hour and second, at the expense of the millions of US workers who lost their manufacturing job. Did any of those extra profits end up in the pockets of the workers or were used to advance the skill set of those who were laid off? No, hardly a dime.

Was there a manager or owner at the overseas factory that had the employees back?

 

[mack341]

I don't know what Obama spend 10 T on, the 2009 recovery act was $787 billion.

I've listened to many job reports and for years the jobs gains were always in the medical and retail industries. I'll have to take a closer look to be 100% sure but just from overhearing the jobs reports on the business news I've noticed a gain in manufacturing jobs in the last several reports while in previous reports it was always manufacturing job losses.

They just released the numbers this morning. The economy did hit 4.1 GDP 2nd quarter, sustainable, probably not. A 3% yearly average is I bet. CNN/MSNBC had to cover it and they did not look too happy.

Some say a big crash is coming so I'm planning accordingly.

Trump did an apprenticeship program earlier in the week. Didn't get any coverage except on Fox Business. I I saw it live. It was okay, nothing grand but one young lady was thrilled she's going to be an electrician in 2 years. There are like 6 million vocational jobs here that are unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.

Supposed to be 6 more steel opening. We'll see if it happens.

At least Trump is trying to do something to restore manufacturing in the US, previous presidents didn't seem overly bothered, but the banks and wall street have got to be behind it too and I'm not sure they are. The USA could compete with japan and germany in manufacturing high value goods, I think the govts and banking sectors of japan and germany must support their manufacturing more, maybe not subsidies but somehow they give them extra help. Volkswagen have had these huge fines imposed on them and they are carrying on business as usual, if it was a british company it would have probably folded.

 

[slotplayer]

At least Trump is trying to do something to restore manufacturing in the US, previous presidents didn't seem overly bothered, but the banks and wall street have got to be behind it too and I'm not sure they are. The USA could compete with japan and germany in manufacturing high value goods, I think the govts and banking sectors of japan and germany must support their manufacturing more, maybe not subsidies but somehow they give them extra help. Volkswagen have had these huge fines imposed on them and they are carrying on business as usual, if it was a british company it would have probably folded.

Didn't VW want zero tarriffs on cars?

 

[mack341]

Didn't VW want zero tarriffs on cars?

Maybe I would have thought so, the tesla company is doing very well now in the electric car market and I think they're getting some help in various ways, but it makes sense as long as the company pays a fair amount of corporate tax and doesn't try and offshore profits. Imagine if google, facebook, apple, amazon, starbucks etc... paid a bit more tax back to America, all these brands started out in the US, they are successsful all around the world but they seem to want to give the least back possible to their country.

 

[slotplayer]

Maybe I would have thought so, the tesla company is doing very well now in the electric car market and I think they're getting some help in various ways, but it makes sense as long as the company pays a fair amount of corporate tax and doesn't try and offshore profits. Imagine if google, facebook, apple, amazon, starbucks etc... paid a bit more tax back to America, all these brands started out in the US, they are successsful all around the world but they seem to want to give the least back possible to their country.

There was supposed to be a repatriation of corporate profits back to US but I could never find out if it ever happened or how much. Some say its up to 3 trillion dollars. Apple has the most money overseas.

They lowered corporate tax rates and just finished tax cuts 2.0 which makes the middle class cuts permanent because it had a 2025 expiry sunset clause and the Democrats want to undo them if they gain power. They're supposed to vote on it in September.

 

[TheAddict]

Maybe I would have thought so, the tesla company is doing very well now in the electric car market and I think they're getting some help in various ways, but it makes sense as long as the company pays a fair amount of corporate tax and doesn't try and offshore profits. Imagine if google, facebook, apple, amazon, starbucks etc... paid a bit more tax back to America, all these brands started out in the US, they are successsful all around the world but they seem to want to give the least back possible to their country.

Its just coincidences.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Was there a manager or owner at the overseas factory that had the employees back?

I some countries, owners truly take their social responsibility very serious. Overall though, I am sure not much better or worse than in the US, where "hire & fire" is coming from.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Didn't VW want zero tarriffs on cars?

Virtually every company wants zero tariffs!

I don't know if you have worked in an area where you had to deal with customs forms and regulations. Doing the stuff takes up a lot of manpower and time, wasted money IMO.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I don't know what Obama spend 10 T on, the 2009 recovery act was $787 billion.

I've listened to many job reports and for years the jobs gains were always in the medical and retail industries. I'll have to take a closer look to be 100% sure but just from overhearing the jobs reports on the business news I've noticed a gain in manufacturing jobs in the last several reports while in previous reports it was always manufacturing job losses.

They just released the numbers this morning. The economy did hit 4.1 GDP 2nd quarter, sustainable, probably not. A 3% yearly average is I bet. CNN/MSNBC had to cover it and they did not look too happy.

Some say a big crash is coming so I'm planning accordingly.

Trump did an apprenticeship program earlier in the week. Didn't get any coverage except on Fox Business. I I saw it live. It was okay, nothing grand but one young lady was thrilled she's going to be an electrician in 2 years. There are like 6 million vocational jobs here that are unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.

Supposed to be 6 more steel opening. We'll see if it happens.

That was only the initial bailout for the banks and big companies, those they considered "too big to fail"

Well done for 4.1% growth, no surprise considering the $1.5 trillion tax cut and $300billion in extra public spending.

To be honest, if you watch Velshi & Ruhle on MSNBC they happily cover good news, expecially Ruhle who worked in finance before joining MSNBC.

CNBC, CBS, Washington Post, NY Times and a few more covered Mr. T's training program. Fox News did not have the story on their website (none that I could find in a quick search). But, I agree, more could and should be done for the young generation.

Steel furnaces are closed and re-opened all the time, not just in the US. It is a rather easy and quick process, allowing steel producers to respond to market demand and prices.. Google "US Steel furnace closure opening" and you will see the results just for that one company. They of course are spinning it to please Mr. T, just like Carrier who then still laid of people.

6 more furnaces to be opened is what Mr. T 's says. Just a few weeks it was 6 in total, now suddenly 7 .....US Steel has made no announcements, which they have to due to their corporate responsibility, of 7 furnaces.

Plus, read how steel users are suffering! These tariffs are akin Obama's tyre tariffs or Bush's tariffs, saving a few jobs here, losing thousands down the supply chain.

 

[slotplayer]

Virtually every company wants zero tariffs!

I don't know if you have worked in an area where you had to deal with customs forms and regulations. Doing the stuff takes up a lot of manpower and time, wasted money IMO.

yes, I have the mail order business so do fill out custom forms from time to time. PayPal has automated it for US post so depending on weight it all prints on an adhesive label now, before that though it was all manual.

 

[Harry_BKK]

yes, I have the mail order business so do fill out custom forms from time to time. PayPal has automated it for US post so depending on weight it all prints on an adhesive label now, before that though it was all manual.

I worked for 6 months in an export department in 1989, most of the stuff was going to the Middle East and Asia. Thousands of Telex messages and faxes, typing endless forms on a manual typewriter (they replaced them with electric ones shortly after I left the departmenet), going through countless chapters for the right codes and tariffs for each country - it was the most boring job I have ever done.

 

[slotplayer]

I some countries, owners truly take their social responsibility very serious. Overall though, I am sure not much better or worse than in the US, where "hire & fire" is coming from.

What do you mean "hire and fire"? You mean Private sector vs Union?

 

[Harry_BKK]

What do you mean "hire and fire"? You mean Private sector vs Union?

I mean little or no protections against being fired within a few days.

In Germany, the minimum is 30 days notice, with growing seniority in the company that goes up to 12 months.

 

[slotplayer]

I worked for 6 months in an export department in 1989, most of the stuff was going to the Middle East and Asia. Thousands of Telex messages and faxes, typing endless forms on a manual typewriter (they replaced them with electric ones shortly after I left the departmenet), going through countless chapters for the right codes and tariffs for each country - it was the most boring job I have ever done.

I bet it was boring. I had a summer job in Boston sorting computer punch cards. I think i was around 15 or 16 because I didn't have a driver's license.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I bet it was boring. I had a summer job in Boston sorting computer punch cards. I think i was around 15 or 16 because I didn't have a driver's license.


View attachment 93349

Holly moly, I remember those. The same company had them too.

Good 'ol days eh!

 

[slotplayer]

I mean little or no protections against being fired within a few days.

In Germany, the minimum is 30 days notice, with growing seniority in the company that goes up to 12 months.

yes, here you can get fired at any time. I've been fired before. If you decide to leave the company you're not required to (maybe at some companies its policy) but its customary to give management a two week notice.

 

[slotplayer]

That was only the initial bailout for the banks and big companies, those they considered "too big to fail"

Well done for 4.1% growth, no surprise considering the $1.5 trillion tax cut and $300billion in extra public spending.

To be honest, if you watch Velshi & Ruhle on MSNBC they happily cover good news, expecially Ruhle who worked in finance before joining MSNBC.

CNBC, CBS, Washington Post, NY Times and a few more covered Mr. T's training program. Fox News did not have the story on their website (none that I could find in a quick search). But, I agree, more could and should be done for the young generation.

Steel furnaces are closed and re-opened all the time, not just in the US. It is a rather easy and quick process, allowing steel producers to respond to market demand and prices.. Google "US Steel furnace closure opening" and you will see the results just for that one company. They of course are spinning it to please Mr. T, just like Carrier who then still laid of people.

6 more furnaces to be opened is what Mr. T 's says. Just a few weeks it was 6 in total, now suddenly 7 .....US Steel has made no announcements, which they have to due to their corporate responsibility, of 7 furnaces.

Plus, read how steel users are suffering! These tariffs are akin Obama's tyre tariffs or Bush's tariffs, saving a few jobs here, losing thousands down the supply chain.

yes, I like Ali Velshi, he was at CNN before then went to Al Jazeera America but then Al Jazeera went off the air here.

I know about the whole down stream effect, of course when a company opens a (tax sweetened) plant like Amazon it has a positive down stream effect for businesses.

 

[Kelly Jo]

I some countries, owners truly take their social responsibility very serious. Overall though, I am sure not much better or worse than in the US, where "hire & fire" is coming from.

It depends on the State laws. Kansas has a "No fault fire" policy because it aligns with Kansas Common Law and offers protection to both parties. You get fired for anything other than not showing up to work, it's almost a sure bet you'll be approved for benefits. You quit? Good luck... Contrary to common belief, employees don't pay into Unemployment. It is an Insurance policy that is paid quarterly by employers. Firing employees is not something employers are all that eager to do. The costs are far greater than a resolution.

Fun Fact: I got fired from the Unemployment Office...and started receiving benefits the next week.

 

[mack341]

I was musing on the issue of big global companies offshoring profits through complex business structures so they can pay the least tax possible, sometimes ridiculously low amounts on billions of revenue. To my memory it didn't happen so much in the past, [pre 1995?] it seems to have developed and increased, part and parcel, with 'globalism'.

And of course what it does do is undermine the nation state as countries inevitably have to borrow money to make up for the shortfall in tax revenue, this debt increases year on year and so interest payments also increase and then the standard of living comes under attack, cutbacks in education, health etc...

I always thought the protests in Seattle back in 1999 against globalisation, the IMF and WTO etc.. were way over the top and consisted of youngsters just venting against authority, but I think I was short-sighted.

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[slotplayer]

It depends on the State laws. Kansas has a "No fault fire" policy because it aligns with Kansas Common Law and offers protection to both parties. You get fired for anything other than not showing up to work, it's almost a sure bet you'll be approved for benefits. You quit? Good luck... Contrary to common belief, employees don't pay into Unemployment. It is an Insurance policy that is paid quarterly by employers. Firing employees is not something employers are all that eager to do. The costs are far greater than a resolution.

Fun Fact: I got fired from the Unemployment Office...and started receiving benefits the next week.

here in MA its a little different. You can appeal/dispute it if you get fired. Eligible benefits are delayed a bit but you get the weeks in arrears all at once. (Most claims are processed within 21-28 days after filing. It may take longer if there is an issue with your claim.)

You have to call in every week. (You must request weekly benefits every week that you are unemployed. You will make your first weekly benefit request the week after you file your claim for unemployment benefits)

Decent max benefits though, If you are eligible to receive unemployment benefits, you will receive a weekly benefit amount of approximately 50% of your average weekly wage, up to the maximum set by law. As of October 2017, the maximum weekly benefit amount is $769 per week up to 30 weeks.

The neighboring state of New Hampshire is 26 weeks and max. $427/wk. California 26 weeks and max $450/wk.

You have to actively be looking for work while receiving. (You must begin searching for work immediately, 3 work search attempts on 3 separate days.)

They do offer a retraining program but you have to apply in the first few weeks.

They tax the benefits, however you can opt not to have the tax taken out. Whenever I got a job after collecting benefits I'd ask payroll to take out extra state and federal tax money, knowing I'd have to pay the taxes on the unemployment benefits when filing taxes.

 

[slotplayer]

I was musing on the issue of big global companies offshoring profits through complex business structures so they can pay the least tax possible, sometimes ridiculously low amounts on billions of revenue. To my memory it didn't happen so much in the past, [pre 1995?] it seems to have developed and increased, part and parcel, with 'globalism'.

And of course what it does do is undermine the nation state as countries inevitably have to borrow money to make up for the shortfall in tax revenue, this debt increases year on year and so interest payments also increase and then the standard of living comes under attack, cutbacks in education, health etc...

I always thought the protests in Seattle back in 1999 against globalisation, the IMF and WTO etc.. were way over the top and consisted of youngsters just venting against authority, but I think I was short-sighted.

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This is probably a better article:

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Well the WTO was founded in 1995. China joined in 2001. Bill Clinton signed legislation in 2000, pretty much sealing the deal for China's inclusion.

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It was a good deal for producers and consumers but bad for laborers, there's your wage decline right there and the subsequent decline in the standard of living.