North Korea and US politics

[slotplayer]

Don't you have any 'floating voters' in America? In the UK as we're faced with the unappetising choice of either Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn there will be a lot of undecided votes during the next general election. There has got be some people starting to dislike trump among republicans, but can the democrats put up a 'normal' safe pair of hands type person that will have cross party appeal?

Somebody like Rand Paul strikes me as the sort of candidate the democrats should really try and find someone similar to, Tulsi Gabbard would get my vote

We have the primary voting here first, that decides which candidate from each party will win out to be the nominee for president, Trump beat all 16 republican candidates, although some dropped out due to lack of support/donations.

If Trump runs in 2020 he's already the Republican nominee but someone can challenge him for it.

We have registered independent voters here, like me. But you can write in any name (for president) when you vote or leave it blank and just vote on the other stuff on the ballot. Usually state/local offices, questions, for example, in the last presidential election on my state ballot was the legalize pot question. I know some pot smokers so I figured I'd give them a little help and voted yes.

It's the independent voters who really decide the election, both the Republican and Liberals have their base voters. Those are the ones always fighting in the media. This is why Trump tweets all the time, he's communicating with the base to keep them motivated/engaged for the next election, the midterms and 2020.

 

[ladyhawke]

New poll out today...trump losing massive support in the rust belt...after the Helsinki summit.

Not quite to do with Helsinki, but I have found many Americans are very naive as to how international trade works. I read a report that approximately 60% of the USA's $20 billion agricultural exports to China are from soybeans. Not sure if this is part of the rust belt, or the corn belt, but already Trump's punitive tariffs on Chinese imports is hitting this industry hard. China has found other suppliers, e.g. Brazil, and I think I may have read Mexico as well, with the result that Trump is shoring up these farmers with $12billion in subsidies.

And this is where the naivity comes in: Do americans really believe that China is going to dump all its new suppliers, and go back to importing USA grown soybeans, once the trade war is resolved? Based on Trump's inability to keep agreements, both written and verbal? I don't think so.

From what I can see, the rest of the World is slowly, but surely, moving away from the USA and establishing new markets. Trump's policies, and his rhetoric, is far more harmful to the USA, than elsewhere, as somewhere along the line, Trump thought 'Leader of the Free World" meant 'Ruler of the Free World".

Delusional!

 

[Steviedoo]

The democrats have moved even further left. They're screwed until the 2024 election.

Yup

 

[slotplayer]

Not quite to do with Helsinki, but I have found many Americans are very naive as to how international trade works. I read a report that approximately 60% of the USA's $20 billion agricultural exports to China are from soybeans. Not sure if this is part of the rust belt, or the corn belt, but already Trump's punitive tariffs on Chinese imports is hitting this industry hard. China has found other suppliers, e.g. Brazil, and I think I may have read Mexico as well, with the result that Trump is shoring up these farmers with $12billion in subsidies.

And this is where the naivity comes in: Do americans really believe that China is going to dump all its new suppliers, and go back to importing USA grown soybeans, once the trade war is resolved? Based on Trump's inability to keep agreements, both written and verbal? I don't think so.

From what I can see, the rest of the World is slowly, but surely, moving away from the USA and establishing new markets. Trump's policies, and his rhetoric, is far more harmful to the USA, than elsewhere, as somewhere along the line, Trump thought 'Leader of the Free World" meant 'Ruler of the Free World".

Delusional!

Soybeans are a "big deal".

This was today.

 

[slotplayer]

in full backtrack mode.

The White House just canceled Putin's visit and Pompeo just said that Crimea will never be recognized.

Might have to do with recent poll stating that support in rust belt is fallin


Yup

It was just postponed but there was never an official visit scheduled.

 

[ladyhawke]

Soybeans are a "big deal".

This was today.

Thanks for the video. Had to scout around though to find a source that allowed me to watch it.

So the EU has agreed to 'buy a lot of US Soybeans.' Exactly how many is a 'lot'?

According to the following link, the EU currently imports 14.5 million metric tons, mainly from Brazil, which will now be exporting most of their soybean crop to China, which imports 95 million metric tons, currently mainly from the USA.

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The sting in the tail is that as the Chinese market is now greatly reduced, the USA don't really have many options, other than the EU.

So will the metric tons of soybeans that will be exported to the EU make up for the metric tons of soybeans that are no longer being exported to China? I guess time will tell.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Soybeans are a "big deal".

This was today.

Yes, Mr. T caving in again and getting nothing or not much in return. Just like when he was faced with Kim and Vlad. And he claims to be the "best dealmaker" ever. I would have loved to have such counterparts in my negotiations, would have been the easiest and best deals.

The statements from Juncker tells you that Mr. T got basically nothing more than a few verbal promises to buy more soybeans and LPG from the US

Soybean is not super big in Europe, plus they have established suppliers. Will the US farmers match the lower prizes? Or will Mr. T hand out more subsidies?
LPG - Again, does he really think that the EU will suddenly pay 20 - 25% more for gas? Especially because it comes from fracking the sh*t out of the most beautiful nature spots in the US. You should know that Europeans care about the environment.

On the other side, the EU got at least a major concession. No further tariffs during negotiations. Hence, they can relax, sit back and wait for the US to make an offer.

Which also means, we are now back to TTIP which Mr. T slammed as the worst of the worst and brushed it off within the first few days of his presidency. Not the worst after all?

Tariffs between EU/US average at about 2 - 3% on non-automotive goods, so what big concessions can either side give? And what great deal can that be when the tariffs are close to zero anyway?

But yes, Mr. T heralding it in his delusional way: "very big day for free and fair trade"

 

[Harry_BKK]

Truly breathtaking.

But hey...are you sure there is not some photo shopping going on there as well, as the colours are surreal.

"Don't know where you traveled, but I went backpacking the first time in 1986 from Germany to Turkey and survived nearly 6 months with EUR1500/AUD2300. Thought that was really cheap at the time."

Don't forget, it has always been cheaper for men - of any age - to travel, than it is for women, particularly as I was in my early twenties back then, due to safety issues and other restrictions that men don't face, and therefore don't have to budget for.

However, kudos for doing your travel so cheaply.

I did most of my early travelling around Africa, Europe, USA and Canada. And had the time of my life. Later on, I was lucky enough to work for an airline, then a major UK travel company (both in IT), so I saw even more of the world that way, and finally, a blue chip USA company, that sent me here, there, and everywhere on business (a hint - think Blue! ) so I didn't have to worry about budgets or anything.

The top pic is very probably photoshopped, the second is real. I got similar pics myself but they "rot" slowly with the other stuff I have stored in my brothers basement.

Happy to hear that you traveled so much. Gives you a different perspective of the world. I was lucky too, to travel for work all my adult life, well-paid and expenses account on top. The best that could happen to me.

My early travels though were all backpacking during my student years, so budgeting was an important part. .....e.g. I traveled at the time from Istanbul to Izmir in a "dolmush" for less than 1 Euro, unthinkable today.

 

[Harry_BKK]

From what I can see, the rest of the World is slowly, but surely, moving away from the USA and establishing new markets. Trump's policies, and his rhetoric, is far more harmful to the USA, than elsewhere, as somewhere along the line, Trump thought 'Leader of the Free World" meant 'Ruler of the Free World".

Delusional!

- TPP signed without US
- CETA signed between Canada and the EU
- EPA signed between Japan and the EU
- EU currently negotiating with MERCOSUR countries
- EU currently negotiating with Mexico

Is the US doing anything else other than slapping around tariffs, foolishly thinking it will give them leverage?

A sentence from trade wizard Navarro stayed in my mind: "nobody will dare to retaliate" ....until today every country has done so! .... So now, the US taxpayer is footing the bill for extra subsidies! That is some dealmaking!

 

[ladyhawke]

-
A sentence from trade wizard Navarro stayed in my mind: "nobody will dare to retaliate" ....until today every country has done so! .... So now, the US taxpayer is footing the bill for extra subsidies! That is some dealmaking!

Oh how the tariffs have turned.

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[Harry_BKK]

Oh how the tariffs have turned.

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Which part should I read?

 

[ladyhawke]

Which part should I read?

Sorry...forgot the apostrophes around the quote from Kathryn Krawczyk. Just thought it was very apt. Nothing further to read.

 

[Steviedoo]

It was just postponed but there was never an official visit scheduled.

I said yup to your comment about the democrats moving left and they are screwed. They will never win this way. Even Comey, a republican, is telling them to stay in the middle and not go to the progressive left if they want to win the house.

I think Bernie sanders is a fake to be honest. I think I despise him more than trump. And all his Bernie bros pretty much just blindly following him and splitting the party.

 

[mack341]

'snip'

 

[mack341]

I'm going to have stop this bernie gif, its too much...

 

[slotplayer]

Yes, Mr. T caving in again and getting nothing or not much in return. Just like when he was faced with Kim and Vlad. And he claims to be the "best dealmaker" ever. I would have loved to have such counterparts in my negotiations, would have been the easiest and best deals.

The statements from Juncker tells you that Mr. T got basically nothing more than a few verbal promises to buy more soybeans and LPG from the US

Soybean is not super big in Europe, plus they have established suppliers. Will the US farmers match the lower prizes? Or will Mr. T hand out more subsidies?
LPG - Again, does he really think that the EU will suddenly pay 20 - 25% more for gas? Especially because it comes from fracking the sh*t out of the most beautiful nature spots in the US. You should know that Europeans care about the environment.

On the other side, the EU got at least a major concession. No further tariffs during negotiations. Hence, they can relax, sit back and wait for the US to make an offer.

Which also means, we are now back to TTIP which Mr. T slammed as the worst of the worst and brushed it off within the first few days of his presidency. Not the worst after all?

Tariffs between EU/US average at about 2 - 3% on non-automotive goods, so what big concessions can either side give? And what great deal can that be when the tariffs are close to zero anyway?

But yes, Mr. T heralding it in his delusional way: "very big day for free and fair trade"

It was the EU guy that looked defeated, just like "T" did at the Helsinki press conference with Putin.

It could be just more EU lip service.

 

[slotplayer]

I said yup to your comment about the democrats moving left and they are screwed. They will never win this way. Even Comey, a republican, is telling them to stay in the middle and not go to the progressive left if they want to win the house.

I think Bernie sanders is a fake to be honest. I think I despise him more than trump. And all his Bernie bros pretty much just blindly following him and splitting the party.

yes, I saw that.
I don't want them to win the house or the senate or the presidency. I've left that party.

 

[Harry_BKK]

It was the EU guy that looked defeated, just like "T" did at the Helsinki press conference with Putin.

It could be just more EU lip service.

Juncker always looks like that, don't be fooled. It is clearly lip service only because they know Mr. T is easily pleased. Juncker even kissed him.

And just like after a few hours with Kim when Mr. T said: "NK is no longer a nuclear threat", he is now trying to push another of his so-called "wins" by saying after a few hours with Juncker: "We just opened up Europe." ..... these kind of "Lalaland" statements are at best laughable and only cheered by his base, who believe anything Mr. T says.

Good luck convincing Europe to drop their standards and start importing GMO agricultural products from the US....it won't happen!

I let you do the translations, this is about importing more LNG from the US. The main German gas supplier says clearly "NO". Germany doesn't even have an LNG terminal, so receiving any shipped LNG from the US would take 5 years minimum. Finding a site, getting approval, building it, signing contracts etc.

 

[Steviedoo]

C

 

[slotplayer]

Juncker always looks like that, don't be fooled. It is clearly lip service only because they know Mr. T is easily pleased. Juncker even kissed him.

And just like after a few hours with Kim when Mr. T said: "NK is no longer a nuclear threat", he is now trying to push another of his so-called "wins" by saying after a few hours with Juncker: "We just opened up Europe." ..... these kind of "Lalaland" statements are at best laughable and only cheered by his base, who believe anything Mr. T says.

Good luck convincing Europe to drop their standards and start importing GMO agricultural products from the US....it won't happen!

I let you do the translations, this is about importing more LNG from the US. The main German gas supplier says clearly "NO". Germany doesn't even have an LNG terminal, so receiving any shipped LNG from the US would take 5 years minimum. Finding a site, getting approval, building it, signing contracts etc.


View attachment 93302

Why show up then?

 

[Harry_BKK]

Why show up then?

Geez, are you such a greenhorn in politics?

To show the world that "the wiser head gives in" (a German saying) and the EU is the adult in the room, averting a trade war that won't help anyone, the least the US workers. They have shown goodwill and the onus is now on the US. Simple but very effective.

Do you know that anything Juncker agrees to has to be first ratified by all EU members before it is official? Did Mr. T know that? .... I highly doubt it!

Juncker knows very well that Europe will not accept imports of GMO agricultural products (it was one of the big stumbling blocks of TTIP), nor will any politician be able to push through fracked LNG gas without getting chased out of office. Juncker hasn't signed anything, so anything agreed is pure lip service to give Mr. T his "win" and the adulation from his fans that he so much craves.

The only countries currently importing LNG from the US are Poland and Lithuania, two countries from the former Eastern Bloc where, first, the environmental consciousness is not as developed as in the rest of the EU countries, and second, both have been pleasing the US to get army bases for their protection against Russia. The amount of LNG that they currently take is absolutely negligible.

And it will certainly not end in "zero tariffs, zero barriers, and zero subsidies" as Mr. T implied. Wait until serious negotiations start and you will see armies of lobbyists putting pressure on both sides of the table.

Plus, automotive is excluded from their talks, which is the largest single part of the $1 Trillion+ trade between the US and the EU.

Alternatively, I could take Mr. T's words and say: "what you see and hear is not what is happening". and, his "very, very big day" with Juncker and his "opening of Europe" are just pure lies as usual.

BTW, Europe was not closed to start with. Canada and Japan were way smarter and signed wide-ranging trade agreements, virtually eliminating tariffs and the majority of barriers without resorting to the Bronx trash style coming from Mr. T and his lackeys.

 

[slotplayer]

Geez, are you such a greenhorn in politics?

To show the world that "the wiser head gives in" (a German saying) and the EU is the adult in the room, averting a trade war that won't help anyone, the least the US workers. They have shown goodwill and the onus is now on the US. Simple but very effective.

Do you know that anything Juncker agrees to has to be first ratified by all EU members before it is official? Did Mr. T know that? .... I highly doubt it!

Juncker knows very well that Europe will not accept imports of GMO agricultural products (it was one of the big stumbling blocks of TTIP), nor will any politician be able to push through fracked LNG gas without getting chased out of office. Juncker hasn't signed anything, so anything agreed is pure lip service to give Mr. T his "win" and the adulation from his fans that he so much craves.

The only countries currently importing LNG from the US are Poland and Lithuania, two countries from the former Eastern Bloc where, first, the environmental consciousness is not as developed as in the rest of the EU countries, and second, both have been pleasing the US to get army bases for their protection against Russia. The amount of LNG that they currently take is absolutely negligible.

And it will certainly not end in "zero tariffs, zero barriers, and zero subsidies" as Mr. T implied. Wait until serious negotiations start and you will see armies of lobbyists putting pressure on both sides of the table.

Plus, automotive is excluded from their talks, which is the largest single part of the $1 Trillion+ trade between the US and the EU.

Alternatively, I could take Mr. T's words and say: "what you see and hear is not what is happening". and, his "very, very big day" with Juncker and his "opening of Europe" are just pure lies as usual.

BTW, Europe was not closed to start with. Canada and Japan were way smarter and signed wide-ranging trade agreements, virtually eliminating tariffs and the majority of barriers.

I've stopped following much of it tbh but I heard Juncker say in the press conference he came to make a deal and he made one.

I imagine "zero" is just part of a negotiating strategy. Fortunately the economy here is strong. There are more jobs than workers at the moment so if there was ever a time to renegotiate with partners this is it. So why not give it a shot? They all know the risks.

That's what "T" wants, to eliminate/reduce tariffs, barriers and quotas.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I've stopped following much of it tbh but I heard Juncker say in the press conference he came to make a deal and he made one.

I imagine "zero" is just part of a negotiating strategy. Fortunately, the economy here is strong. There are more jobs than workers at the moment so if there was ever a time to renegotiate with partners this is it. So why not give it a shot? They all know the risks.

That's what "T" wants, to eliminate/reduce tariffs, barriers and quotas.

Nothing against negotiating better deals, as I mentioned the EU just signed new deals with Japan and Canada.

But no, Mr T. has no interest whatsoever to eliminate/reduce tariffs, barriers and quotas. They just extended the 25% tariff until 2040 for trucks coming from South Korea, why has he not eliminated a single tariff/barrier/quota in the newly signed deal with SK???? Geez, please look at the facts and stop believing every lie / misrepresentation Mr. T is trying to spread.

What he wants is to reduce/eliminate the US trade deficit, wrongly linking trade deals to the trade deficit. He thinks if the US has a trade deficit with a country than the trade agreement must be bad.

Have you researched why the US has such a big trade deficit?

One of the major reasons is well explained in this statement from a German political scientist:

"Trump hat recht, wenn er sagt, dass Europa mehr in die USA exportiert als umgekehrt. Aber das amerikanische Außenhandelsdefizit entsteht ja nicht, weil Europa die USA übervorteilt, sondern weil die USA keine Sparquote haben. Solange Amerika nicht spart, sondern über seine Verhältnisse lebt, wird es ein Handelsdefizit haben. Das kapieren Trump und seine Merkantilisten nicht: Wenn die USA weiterhin über ihre Verhältnisse leben wollen, dann brauchen sie jemanden, der das bezahlt. Das Geld, das wir im Handel mit den USA verdienen, geben wir als Kredite dorthin zurück, damit die USA wieder Güter bei uns kaufen können. Wir müssten Trump sagen: Der Deal ist doch gar nicht so schlecht. Ihr bekommt Autos und andere schöne Waren, und wir bekommen dafür Schuldscheine, die etwas wert sein können oder auch nicht. Bei der letzten Korrektur in der Finanzkrise 2007/2008 haben auch deutsche Sparer und Anleger wieder sehr viel Geld verloren. Das war doch wohl kein schlechter Deal für die USA."

Google Translation:

"Trump is right when he says that Europe exports more to the US than vice versa. But the American foreign trade deficit does not arise from Europe fleecing the US, but because the US has no savings rate. As long as America does not save, but lives beyond its means, it will have a trade deficit. That's what Trump and his mercantilists don't get: if the US wants to continue living beyond their means, then they need someone to pay for it. The money we earn from trading with the US is returned to the US in loans, so that the US can buy more goods from us. We should tell Trump: The deal is not so bad. You get cars and other nice goods, and we get promissory treasury notes that may or may not be worth anything. During the last correction in the financial crisis of 2007/2008, German savers and investors have lost a lot of money again. That was not a bad deal for the US."

 

[slotplayer]

Nothing against negotiating better deals, as I mentioned the EU just signed new deals with Japan and Canada.

But no, Mr T. has no interest whatsoever to eliminate/reduce tariffs, barriers and quotas. They just extended the 25% tariff until 2040 for trucks coming from South Korea, why has he not eliminated a single tariff/barrier/quota in the newly signed deal with SK???? Geez, please look at the facts and stop believing every lie / misrepresentation Mr. T is trying to spread.

What he wants is to reduce/eliminate the US trade deficit, wrongly linking trade deals to the trade deficit. He thinks if the US has a trade deficit with a country than the trade agreement must be bad.

Have you researched why the US has such a big trade deficit?

One of the major reasons is well explained in this statement from a German political scientist:

"Trump hat recht, wenn er sagt, dass Europa mehr in die USA exportiert als umgekehrt. Aber das amerikanische Außenhandelsdefizit entsteht ja nicht, weil Europa die USA übervorteilt, sondern weil die USA keine Sparquote haben. Solange Amerika nicht spart, sondern über seine Verhältnisse lebt, wird es ein Handelsdefizit haben. Das kapieren Trump und seine Merkantilisten nicht: Wenn die USA weiterhin über ihre Verhältnisse leben wollen, dann brauchen sie jemanden, der das bezahlt. Das Geld, das wir im Handel mit den USA verdienen, geben wir als Kredite dorthin zurück, damit die USA wieder Güter bei uns kaufen können. Wir müssten Trump sagen: Der Deal ist doch gar nicht so schlecht. Ihr bekommt Autos und andere schöne Waren, und wir bekommen dafür Schuldscheine, die etwas wert sein können oder auch nicht. Bei der letzten Korrektur in der Finanzkrise 2007/2008 haben auch deutsche Sparer und Anleger wieder sehr viel Geld verloren. Das war doch wohl kein schlechter Deal für die USA."

Google Translation:

"Trump is right when he says that Europe exports more to the US than vice versa. But the American foreign trade deficit does not arise from Europe fleecing the US, but because the US has no savings rate. As long as America does not save, but lives beyond its means, it will have a trade deficit. That's what Trump and his mercantilists don't get: if the US wants to continue living beyond their means, then they need someone to pay for it. The money we earn from trading with the US is returned to the US in loans, so that the US can buy more goods from us. We should tell Trump: The deal is not so bad. You get cars and other nice goods, and we get promissory treasury notes that may or may not be worth anything. During the last correction in the financial crisis of 2007/2008, German savers and investors have lost a lot of money again. That was not a bad deal for the US."

afaik SK wanted to be exempt from the 25% steel tariff so they renegotiated KORUS. I think SK also reduced steel imports to the US by 30% but am not 100% sure. I also don't think SK were exempt from the 10% aluminum tariff.

Here is some details of it. I could not find any articles on the full agreement.

South Korea is allowing the United States to extend its 25 percent tariff on imports of pickup trucks from the country to 2041, as part of the two countries’ agreement to modernize the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), after those tariffs had been set to expire in 2021, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said in a statement.

South Korea currently does not export pickup trucks to the U.S.

In addition, South Korea will allow U.S. automakers selling fewer than 50,000 units per year in South Korea - up from 25,000 - to be exempt from the nation’s safety standards as long as they meet U.S. safety standards, the statement said.


People invest in US debt because its a reliable and stable currency. Whenever anyone speaks on the financial crisis they leave out that investors also made money on the ride up.

 

[Harry_BKK]

afaik SK wanted to be exempt from the 25% steel tariff so they renegotiated KORUS. I think SK also reduced steel imports to the US by 30% but am not 100% sure. I also don't think SK were exempt from the 10% aluminum tariff.

Here is some details of it. I could not find any articles on the full agreement.

South Korea is allowing the United States to extend its 25 percent tariff on imports of pickup trucks from the country to 2041, as part of the two countries’ agreement to modernize the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), after those tariffs had been set to expire in 2021, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said in a statement.

South Korea currently does not export pickup trucks to the U.S.

In addition, South Korea will allow U.S. automakers selling fewer than 50,000 units per year in South Korea - up from 25,000 - to be exempt from the nation’s safety standards as long as they meet U.S. safety standards, the statement said.


People invest in US debt because its a reliable and stable currency. Whenever anyone speaks on the financial crisis they leave out that investors also made money on the ride up.

Have fun reading it:

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Fact is, Mr. T did not eliminate a single tariff / quota or barrier, hence him claiming he wants to remove them in the entire world trade is pure fantasy. He had the chance here to do it as SK was kowtowing to him and he hasn't eliminated a single thing.

He got though 50,000 car units per year that can be below the SK standards (all above have to be) whereas not a single US car manufacturer ever exceeded 25,000 in overall exports per year. That is some achievement!

As for US debt, between making a very low percentage in interest per year and then losing 50% or more of the investment is a big difference, in no way offsetting what they made on the "ride up".

 

[mack341]

I think Germany's overall trade balance surplus for the years 2007-2017 added up is about $2,777 billion, getting on for nearly three trillion dollars, if america's annual trade deficit is say $400 billion on average for the same period, then in comparison that is a 4 trillion dollar deficit over 10 years.

Can this go on for ever, Germany and other countries using some of their surplus to lend money back to America, Congress raises the debt ceiling, America makes greater interest payments on the loans, rinse and repeat, it's not really a formula for making a country 'great' and at some point somethings got to give.

But it will probably require broader changes than just using tariffs as there reciprocal, I suppose in an ideal Trump world the countries with a trade surplus, instead of lending the USA money, would instead purchase services and goods from america?

 

[Harry_BKK]

I think Germany's overall trade balance in total for the years 2007-2017 added up is about $2,777 billion, getting on for nearly three trillion dollars, if america's annual trade deficit is say $400 billion on average for the same period, then in comparison that is a 4 trillion dollar deficit over 10 years.

Can this go on for ever, Germany and other countries use some of their surplus to lend money to back to America, Congress raises the debt ceiling, America makes greater interest payments on the loans, rinse and repeat, its not a formula for making a country 'great' and at some point somethings got to give.

But it will probably require broader changes than just using tariffs as there reciprocal, I suppose in an ideal Trump world the countries with a trade surplus, instead of lending the USA money, would instead purchase services and goods from america?

The US has to start living within their means and reduce borrowing. Obama hiked it by trillions due to the financial crisis, somewhat understandable. Mr. T will hike it because he gives trillions to the corporations and increased public spending, and that while the economy is doing well. That money has to come from somwhere. Certainly not from the "above 4% sustained growth" fantasy they have taken as basis for their calculations.

One of the issues is that Mr. T is trying to push low-value goods - agricultural, fossil fuels etc. instead of services and high-profit goods. Clear indicators are the scrapping or severely rolling back of the Clear Water Act, Clean Air Act (don't know the exact name) and most recentlly the Endangered Species Act.

Its almost as if he wants the US to be an exporter of goods where profit margins are very low to start with. Instead of investing into educating people for future high-profit jobs, he tries to create more in the low-value sector (he even reduced the education budget significantly). And all to get some votes from the rust belt and other areas.

However, you just need to visit a modern farm in the US, or anywhere else for that matter. The amount of workers has been slashed in the last two decades. Big machinery, smart controls (e.g. irrigation) etc. have eliminated tons of jobs. Now instead of improving the skills of those who lost their jobs, Mr. T is trying to get them back onto the fields.

Let's assume he is successful and an additional 100,000 workers get a job in agriculture. Just one drought, one crash on the global exchanges or one natural disaster and the absolute majority is back on the street. In between, Mr. T has wasted billions of $ of taxpayer money subsidizing the farmers. How is that "MAGA"?


The second issue is that for decades the US was at the forefront of the globalization drive with US corporations massively increasing their profits at the expense of first and foremost the worker in the 3rd-world countries who gets paid less $1/hour and second, at the expense of the millions of US workers who lost their manufacturing job. Did any of those extra profits end up in the pockets of the workers or were used to advance the skill set of those who were laid off? No, hardly a dime.

Plus, it resulted in complex supply chains that fan over dozens of countries in some cases. Mr. T is now saying something like: "No, that should be all produced/manufactured in the US". It will not work!

Just take this example: BMW is the biggest car exporter from the US (in $ value) and Mr. T is now hitting the very same company with extra tariffs! Where is the logic? If it indeed happens, then BMW will just shift their production to other countries and the big loser is yet again the blue-collar worker in the US. Yet Mr. T will sell it as a "win".

 

[slotplayer]

The US has to start living within their means and reduce borrowing. Obama hiked it by trillions due to the financial crisis, somewhat understandable. Mr. T will hike it because he gives trillions to the corporations and increased public spending, and that while the economy is doing well. That money has to come from somwhere. Certainly not from the "above 4% sustained growth" fantasy they have taken as basis for their calculations.

One of the issues is that Mr. T is trying to push low-value goods - agricultural, fossil fuels etc. instead of services and high-profit goods. Clear indicators are the scrapping or severely rolling back of the Clear Water Act, Clean Air Act (don't know the exact name) and most recentlly the Endangered Species Act.

Its almost as if he wants the US to be an exporter of goods where profit margins are very low to start with. Instead of investing into educating people for future high-profit jobs, he tries to create more in the low-value sector (he even reduced the education budget significantly). And all to get some votes from the rust belt and other areas.

However, you just need to visit a modern farm in the US, or anywhere else for that matter. The amount of workers has been slashed in the last two decades. Big machinery, smart controls (e.g. irrigation) etc. have eliminated tons of jobs. Now instead of improving the skills of those who lost their jobs, Mr. T is trying to get them back onto the fields.

Let's assume he is successful and an additional 100,000 workers get a job in agriculture. Just one drought, one crash on the global exchanges or one natural disaster and the absolute majority is back on the street. In between, Mr. T has wasted billions of $ of taxpayer money subsidizing the farmers. How is that "MAGA"?


The second issue is that for decades the US was at the forefront of the globalization drive with US corporations massively increasing their profits at the expense of first and foremost the worker in the 3rd-world countries who gets paid less $1/hour and second, at the expense of the millions of US workers who lost their manufacturing job. Did any of those extra profits end up in the pockets of the workers or were used to advance the skill set of those who were laid off? No, hardly a dime.

Plus, it resulted in complex supply chains that fan over dozens of countries in some cases. Mr. T is now saying something like: "No, that should be all produced/manufactured in the US". It will not work!

Just take this example: BMW is the biggest car exporter from the US (in $ value) and Mr. T is now hitting the very same company with extra tariffs! Where is the logic? If it indeed happens, then BMW will just shift their production to other countries and the big loser is yet again the blue-collar worker in the US. Yet Mr. T will sell it as a "win".

I don't know what Obama spend 10 T on, the 2009 recovery act was $787 billion.

I've listened to many job reports and for years the jobs gains were always in the medical and retail industries. I'll have to take a closer look to be 100% sure but just from overhearing the jobs reports on the business news I've noticed a gain in manufacturing jobs in the last several reports while in previous reports it was always manufacturing job losses.

They just released the numbers this morning. The economy did hit 4.1 GDP 2nd quarter, sustainable, probably not. A 3% yearly average is I bet. CNN/MSNBC had to cover it and they did not look too happy.

Some say a big crash is coming so I'm planning accordingly.

Trump did an apprenticeship program earlier in the week. Didn't get any coverage except on Fox Business. I I saw it live. It was okay, nothing grand but one young lady was thrilled she's going to be an electrician in 2 years. There are like 6 million vocational jobs here that are unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.

Supposed to be 6 more steel opening. We'll see if it happens.

 

[goatwack]

I wish you'd stop using Mr T, Harry. I'm easily confused, and keep thinking he's done something wrong

 

[slotplayer]

The second issue is that for decades the US was at the forefront of the globalization drive with US corporations massively increasing their profits at the expense of first and foremost the worker in the 3rd-world countries who gets paid less $1/hour and second, at the expense of the millions of US workers who lost their manufacturing job. Did any of those extra profits end up in the pockets of the workers or were used to advance the skill set of those who were laid off? No, hardly a dime.

Was there a manager or owner at the overseas factory that had the employees back?

 

[mack341]

I don't know what Obama spend 10 T on, the 2009 recovery act was $787 billion.

I've listened to many job reports and for years the jobs gains were always in the medical and retail industries. I'll have to take a closer look to be 100% sure but just from overhearing the jobs reports on the business news I've noticed a gain in manufacturing jobs in the last several reports while in previous reports it was always manufacturing job losses.

They just released the numbers this morning. The economy did hit 4.1 GDP 2nd quarter, sustainable, probably not. A 3% yearly average is I bet. CNN/MSNBC had to cover it and they did not look too happy.

Some say a big crash is coming so I'm planning accordingly.

Trump did an apprenticeship program earlier in the week. Didn't get any coverage except on Fox Business. I I saw it live. It was okay, nothing grand but one young lady was thrilled she's going to be an electrician in 2 years. There are like 6 million vocational jobs here that are unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.

Supposed to be 6 more steel opening. We'll see if it happens.

At least Trump is trying to do something to restore manufacturing in the US, previous presidents didn't seem overly bothered, but the banks and wall street have got to be behind it too and I'm not sure they are. The USA could compete with japan and germany in manufacturing high value goods, I think the govts and banking sectors of japan and germany must support their manufacturing more, maybe not subsidies but somehow they give them extra help. Volkswagen have had these huge fines imposed on them and they are carrying on business as usual, if it was a british company it would have probably folded.

 

[slotplayer]

At least Trump is trying to do something to restore manufacturing in the US, previous presidents didn't seem overly bothered, but the banks and wall street have got to be behind it too and I'm not sure they are. The USA could compete with japan and germany in manufacturing high value goods, I think the govts and banking sectors of japan and germany must support their manufacturing more, maybe not subsidies but somehow they give them extra help. Volkswagen have had these huge fines imposed on them and they are carrying on business as usual, if it was a british company it would have probably folded.

Didn't VW want zero tarriffs on cars?

 

[mack341]

Didn't VW want zero tarriffs on cars?

Maybe I would have thought so, the tesla company is doing very well now in the electric car market and I think they're getting some help in various ways, but it makes sense as long as the company pays a fair amount of corporate tax and doesn't try and offshore profits. Imagine if google, facebook, apple, amazon, starbucks etc... paid a bit more tax back to America, all these brands started out in the US, they are successsful all around the world but they seem to want to give the least back possible to their country.

 

[slotplayer]

Maybe I would have thought so, the tesla company is doing very well now in the electric car market and I think they're getting some help in various ways, but it makes sense as long as the company pays a fair amount of corporate tax and doesn't try and offshore profits. Imagine if google, facebook, apple, amazon, starbucks etc... paid a bit more tax back to America, all these brands started out in the US, they are successsful all around the world but they seem to want to give the least back possible to their country.

There was supposed to be a repatriation of corporate profits back to US but I could never find out if it ever happened or how much. Some say its up to 3 trillion dollars. Apple has the most money overseas.

They lowered corporate tax rates and just finished tax cuts 2.0 which makes the middle class cuts permanent because it had a 2025 expiry sunset clause and the Democrats want to undo them if they gain power. They're supposed to vote on it in September.

 

[TheAddict]

Maybe I would have thought so, the tesla company is doing very well now in the electric car market and I think they're getting some help in various ways, but it makes sense as long as the company pays a fair amount of corporate tax and doesn't try and offshore profits. Imagine if google, facebook, apple, amazon, starbucks etc... paid a bit more tax back to America, all these brands started out in the US, they are successsful all around the world but they seem to want to give the least back possible to their country.

Its just coincidences.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Was there a manager or owner at the overseas factory that had the employees back?

I some countries, owners truly take their social responsibility very serious. Overall though, I am sure not much better or worse than in the US, where "hire & fire" is coming from.

 

[Harry_BKK]

Didn't VW want zero tarriffs on cars?

Virtually every company wants zero tariffs!

I don't know if you have worked in an area where you had to deal with customs forms and regulations. Doing the stuff takes up a lot of manpower and time, wasted money IMO.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I don't know what Obama spend 10 T on, the 2009 recovery act was $787 billion.

I've listened to many job reports and for years the jobs gains were always in the medical and retail industries. I'll have to take a closer look to be 100% sure but just from overhearing the jobs reports on the business news I've noticed a gain in manufacturing jobs in the last several reports while in previous reports it was always manufacturing job losses.

They just released the numbers this morning. The economy did hit 4.1 GDP 2nd quarter, sustainable, probably not. A 3% yearly average is I bet. CNN/MSNBC had to cover it and they did not look too happy.

Some say a big crash is coming so I'm planning accordingly.

Trump did an apprenticeship program earlier in the week. Didn't get any coverage except on Fox Business. I I saw it live. It was okay, nothing grand but one young lady was thrilled she's going to be an electrician in 2 years. There are like 6 million vocational jobs here that are unfilled due to a lack of skilled workers.

Supposed to be 6 more steel opening. We'll see if it happens.

That was only the initial bailout for the banks and big companies, those they considered "too big to fail"

Well done for 4.1% growth, no surprise considering the $1.5 trillion tax cut and $300billion in extra public spending.

To be honest, if you watch Velshi & Ruhle on MSNBC they happily cover good news, expecially Ruhle who worked in finance before joining MSNBC.

CNBC, CBS, Washington Post, NY Times and a few more covered Mr. T's training program. Fox News did not have the story on their website (none that I could find in a quick search). But, I agree, more could and should be done for the young generation.

Steel furnaces are closed and re-opened all the time, not just in the US. It is a rather easy and quick process, allowing steel producers to respond to market demand and prices.. Google "US Steel furnace closure opening" and you will see the results just for that one company. They of course are spinning it to please Mr. T, just like Carrier who then still laid of people.

6 more furnaces to be opened is what Mr. T 's says. Just a few weeks it was 6 in total, now suddenly 7 .....US Steel has made no announcements, which they have to due to their corporate responsibility, of 7 furnaces.

Plus, read how steel users are suffering! These tariffs are akin Obama's tyre tariffs or Bush's tariffs, saving a few jobs here, losing thousands down the supply chain.

 

[slotplayer]

Virtually every company wants zero tariffs!

I don't know if you have worked in an area where you had to deal with customs forms and regulations. Doing the stuff takes up a lot of manpower and time, wasted money IMO.

yes, I have the mail order business so do fill out custom forms from time to time. PayPal has automated it for US post so depending on weight it all prints on an adhesive label now, before that though it was all manual.

 

[Harry_BKK]

yes, I have the mail order business so do fill out custom forms from time to time. PayPal has automated it for US post so depending on weight it all prints on an adhesive label now, before that though it was all manual.

I worked for 6 months in an export department in 1989, most of the stuff was going to the Middle East and Asia. Thousands of Telex messages and faxes, typing endless forms on a manual typewriter (they replaced them with electric ones shortly after I left the departmenet), going through countless chapters for the right codes and tariffs for each country - it was the most boring job I have ever done.

 

[slotplayer]

I some countries, owners truly take their social responsibility very serious. Overall though, I am sure not much better or worse than in the US, where "hire & fire" is coming from.

What do you mean "hire and fire"? You mean Private sector vs Union?

 

[Harry_BKK]

What do you mean "hire and fire"? You mean Private sector vs Union?

I mean little or no protections against being fired within a few days.

In Germany, the minimum is 30 days notice, with growing seniority in the company that goes up to 12 months.

 

[slotplayer]

I worked for 6 months in an export department in 1989, most of the stuff was going to the Middle East and Asia. Thousands of Telex messages and faxes, typing endless forms on a manual typewriter (they replaced them with electric ones shortly after I left the departmenet), going through countless chapters for the right codes and tariffs for each country - it was the most boring job I have ever done.

I bet it was boring. I had a summer job in Boston sorting computer punch cards. I think i was around 15 or 16 because I didn't have a driver's license.

 

[Harry_BKK]

I bet it was boring. I had a summer job in Boston sorting computer punch cards. I think i was around 15 or 16 because I didn't have a driver's license.


View attachment 93349

Holly moly, I remember those. The same company had them too.

Good 'ol days eh!

 

[slotplayer]

I mean little or no protections against being fired within a few days.

In Germany, the minimum is 30 days notice, with growing seniority in the company that goes up to 12 months.

yes, here you can get fired at any time. I've been fired before. If you decide to leave the company you're not required to (maybe at some companies its policy) but its customary to give management a two week notice.

 

[slotplayer]

That was only the initial bailout for the banks and big companies, those they considered "too big to fail"

Well done for 4.1% growth, no surprise considering the $1.5 trillion tax cut and $300billion in extra public spending.

To be honest, if you watch Velshi & Ruhle on MSNBC they happily cover good news, expecially Ruhle who worked in finance before joining MSNBC.

CNBC, CBS, Washington Post, NY Times and a few more covered Mr. T's training program. Fox News did not have the story on their website (none that I could find in a quick search). But, I agree, more could and should be done for the young generation.

Steel furnaces are closed and re-opened all the time, not just in the US. It is a rather easy and quick process, allowing steel producers to respond to market demand and prices.. Google "US Steel furnace closure opening" and you will see the results just for that one company. They of course are spinning it to please Mr. T, just like Carrier who then still laid of people.

6 more furnaces to be opened is what Mr. T 's says. Just a few weeks it was 6 in total, now suddenly 7 .....US Steel has made no announcements, which they have to due to their corporate responsibility, of 7 furnaces.

Plus, read how steel users are suffering! These tariffs are akin Obama's tyre tariffs or Bush's tariffs, saving a few jobs here, losing thousands down the supply chain.

yes, I like Ali Velshi, he was at CNN before then went to Al Jazeera America but then Al Jazeera went off the air here.

I know about the whole down stream effect, of course when a company opens a (tax sweetened) plant like Amazon it has a positive down stream effect for businesses.

 

[Kelly Jo]

I some countries, owners truly take their social responsibility very serious. Overall though, I am sure not much better or worse than in the US, where "hire & fire" is coming from.

It depends on the State laws. Kansas has a "No fault fire" policy because it aligns with Kansas Common Law and offers protection to both parties. You get fired for anything other than not showing up to work, it's almost a sure bet you'll be approved for benefits. You quit? Good luck... Contrary to common belief, employees don't pay into Unemployment. It is an Insurance policy that is paid quarterly by employers. Firing employees is not something employers are all that eager to do. The costs are far greater than a resolution.

Fun Fact: I got fired from the Unemployment Office...and started receiving benefits the next week.

 

[mack341]

I was musing on the issue of big global companies offshoring profits through complex business structures so they can pay the least tax possible, sometimes ridiculously low amounts on billions of revenue. To my memory it didn't happen so much in the past, [pre 1995?] it seems to have developed and increased, part and parcel, with 'globalism'.

And of course what it does do is undermine the nation state as countries inevitably have to borrow money to make up for the shortfall in tax revenue, this debt increases year on year and so interest payments also increase and then the standard of living comes under attack, cutbacks in education, health etc...

I always thought the protests in Seattle back in 1999 against globalisation, the IMF and WTO etc.. were way over the top and consisted of youngsters just venting against authority, but I think I was short-sighted.

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[slotplayer]

It depends on the State laws. Kansas has a "No fault fire" policy because it aligns with Kansas Common Law and offers protection to both parties. You get fired for anything other than not showing up to work, it's almost a sure bet you'll be approved for benefits. You quit? Good luck... Contrary to common belief, employees don't pay into Unemployment. It is an Insurance policy that is paid quarterly by employers. Firing employees is not something employers are all that eager to do. The costs are far greater than a resolution.

Fun Fact: I got fired from the Unemployment Office...and started receiving benefits the next week.

here in MA its a little different. You can appeal/dispute it if you get fired. Eligible benefits are delayed a bit but you get the weeks in arrears all at once. (Most claims are processed within 21-28 days after filing. It may take longer if there is an issue with your claim.)

You have to call in every week. (You must request weekly benefits every week that you are unemployed. You will make your first weekly benefit request the week after you file your claim for unemployment benefits)

Decent max benefits though, If you are eligible to receive unemployment benefits, you will receive a weekly benefit amount of approximately 50% of your average weekly wage, up to the maximum set by law. As of October 2017, the maximum weekly benefit amount is $769 per week up to 30 weeks.

The neighboring state of New Hampshire is 26 weeks and max. $427/wk. California 26 weeks and max $450/wk.

You have to actively be looking for work while receiving. (You must begin searching for work immediately, 3 work search attempts on 3 separate days.)

They do offer a retraining program but you have to apply in the first few weeks.

They tax the benefits, however you can opt not to have the tax taken out. Whenever I got a job after collecting benefits I'd ask payroll to take out extra state and federal tax money, knowing I'd have to pay the taxes on the unemployment benefits when filing taxes.

 

[slotplayer]

I was musing on the issue of big global companies offshoring profits through complex business structures so they can pay the least tax possible, sometimes ridiculously low amounts on billions of revenue. To my memory it didn't happen so much in the past, [pre 1995?] it seems to have developed and increased, part and parcel, with 'globalism'.

And of course what it does do is undermine the nation state as countries inevitably have to borrow money to make up for the shortfall in tax revenue, this debt increases year on year and so interest payments also increase and then the standard of living comes under attack, cutbacks in education, health etc...

I always thought the protests in Seattle back in 1999 against globalisation, the IMF and WTO etc.. were way over the top and consisted of youngsters just venting against authority, but I think I was short-sighted.

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This is probably a better article:

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Well the WTO was founded in 1995. China joined in 2001. Bill Clinton signed legislation in 2000, pretty much sealing the deal for China's inclusion.

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It was a good deal for producers and consumers but bad for laborers, there's your wage decline right there and the subsequent decline in the standard of living.