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Question Money Trapped By Betfred's Casino

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Samy-Limn, Apr 23, 2016.

    Apr 23, 2016
  1. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    I deposited £8000 into the betfred casino, and stupidly accepted the high roller £500 bonus. I turned my £8,500 into £11,600 on blackjack, but now I can't withdraw the £3,100 profit, and I have only 6 more days to rollover my bonus sufficiently before they remove my bonus money and winnings (£500 and £2,600 profit).

    There terms and conditions are here. You must register/login in order to see the link.

    I have another £28,291 to roll over, you see that only 20% of each blackjack wager counts towards the bonus rollover, so I'd have to wager £141,455 playing blackjack to complete the rollover. Since Betfred's maximum bet is £100 on each 5 hands, I'd have to play another 282 hands to complete this. Given I only have £2,600 profit and am not going to risk losing any of my original £8000 deposit, I have a tiny tiny chance of being positive having played these hands. Could anyone good at maths tell me roughly what my actual chances of being positive are, and what the most likely outcome is! I believe on Betfred the theoretical return percentage to the player is 99.58%. Since this applies not just to the 282 total hands I'll play, but also each 5 wagers within the hand, am I correct in thinking that I only have a 0.00259% chance of being positive at the end. I calculated 0.9958 to the power of 1410? If so it seems hardly worth even trying.

    Alternatively I could play Slots, Jackpot Slots, Arcade Games, Tens or Better, 25 Lines Aces and Faces, 50-Lines Jacks or Better, 10-Lines Progressive Jacks or Better, all of which each wager contributes 100% towards the bonus rollover. In other words I'd need to wager only £28,291. Does anyone know the house edge of these games, I assume the reason they contribute 100% towards the bonus is because the house edge is larger, and the probability of winning is far lower on each spin etc.

    Carribean Poker, Red Dog Poker, Let it Ride, Stravaganza, and Sic-b all contribute 50% towards the bonus rollover. I have no idea how these games work.

    Basically I'm looking at what mathematically gives me the best chance of being able to rollover the bonus sufficiently to withdraw, and I'm not risking any of my £8000. If anybody could explain to me mathematically what I should do, and be quick as I only have 6 more days before my winnings are removed!-I'd not only be appreciative, but I'd cut them 5% of whatever I withdraw. So If I get lucky and remain postive with what I have now and I withdraw £3,100-I'll give them £165.

    Thank you for reading and any feedback is appreciated!
     
  2. Apr 23, 2016
  3. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    Hi Welcome to the forum )

    Why on earth would you deposit 8k in the first place to get a £500 pound bonus :what:

    i would forfeit that bonus & profit & withdraw the 8K already deposited ( if allowed ). if your forced to carry on & are stuck into that bonus , then table games aren't the things you should be playing your going to have to strike it lucky on slots im afraid & your need to pick a low variance slot to grind out on or just simply go for the higher variance slot which shall be boom or bust.

    Also be careful whats the max bet on slots as well , because no doubt there shall be a cap somewhere in the terms.

    if your depositing that kind of cash i suggest you don't take any bonuses .
     
  4. Apr 23, 2016
  5. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    Hi Mr Jones, I am able to withdraw the £8,000. I believe I can risk losing my £2,600 without losing any of the £8,000 though. I agree with you about slots, since they add 100% to the total wager they would appear to be my best option of winning.

    I know very little about how slots work, I'm aware the odds against the player are worse, and the most likely outcome by far is that I'd lose my £2,600 profit long before I wagered the £28,200 I need to.

    I did not realise what I was getting myself into when I accepted the bonus. Betfred do not make it clear at all, they pop up a message offering you £500. I thought this was to reward me for making such a big deposit, not to trap my money in their site.
     
  6. Apr 23, 2016
  7. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk

    Firstly always read the terms before play , had you done this you would not be where you are now , make sure that you get verified at betfred or your going to be chasing that money for withdrawal, that's a big risk your taking on by only playing with £2,600 it is doable but you need to grind or go for broke mainly slots carry a RTP% of 94-97% on average but depends on a few factors , i would play high variance games shit or bust , can you still withdraw if you get down to 8k ? raging rhino is classed as high variance slot , can't remember if betfred uses playtech slots , but if its playtech , then i would try great blue & thai paradise both high variance.

    I would think your tied into completing that bonus period without any choice ??
     
  8. Apr 23, 2016
  9. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    No, Betfred have made it clear I can withdraw my £8,000, but that if I do so I forfeit immediately the £2,600 profit and the £500 bonus.

    I am in constant contact with their customer support team, trying to find out how much I can risk losing to complete this bonus rollover, without infringing on the £8000 deposit I made.

    As far as I can see at the moment, I can risk the £2,600 profit without that impacting my £8,000 future withdrawal. I am trying to discover whether I can risk betting their £500 bonus they gave me without affecting my £8,000, I will see what they say.

    I had a look at the slots, I could not find the Raging Rhino game, but found both Great Blue and Thai paradise. The theoretical return on both is 96%. I have never played slots before, so couldn't work out what the maximum amount I can bet on each spin is. I clicked on maximum bet, and it spun and cost me £2.50-perhaps that is the maximum bet. If so, I'd have to 10,000 spins to complete the rollover. A 96% underdog after 10,000 spins has 0% chance of being positive!

    I'm trying to figure out a plan here, but if I can't find one as you say, I will just withdraw the £8000 and forget this whole experience! Thanks
     
  10. Apr 23, 2016
  11. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    To be honest i think that's the wise thing to do , if you have 28,000 in wagering to do this shall reflect in your balance , but i doubt it would be 8k like there suggesting , take the money & run lesson learnt , good luck
     
  12. Apr 23, 2016
  13. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    Hey Mr Jones cheers for the replies, just quickly what do you mean 'it would be 8k like there suggesting'

    So you think the possibility of me being positive after having to wager that astonishing amount on slots, or even more on blackjack is so low there's not much point even trying.

    And there could be potential complications with regards to my £8,000.

    I agree I don't trust much of what their casino customer support keep telling me, they're pretty useless and a lot of what they've said so far has been confusing.
     
  14. Apr 23, 2016
  15. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    To update, Betfred have told me I can risk the £2,600 profit I have, and lose that, and still be able to withdraw my £8000.

    I cannot however risk the £500 bonus.

    So basically I have £2,600 to try and complete the rollover with completely risk free.

    Blackjack in fact only counts 10% towards the rollover. I may as well forget that.

    I don't actually understand how to play slots, and I believe the maximum per spin is only £2.50. If this is the case (could someone confirm or deny this)-I'd have to do 10,000 spins.

    I'm no idiot, doing 10,000 spins as a 0.96 underdog gives me about as much chance of remaining positive as becoming King of England.

    Does anybody disagree that I should just screw this and withdraw the £8,000. it does feel like a waste, given that I can wager £2,600 absolutely risk free, but what's the point in even trying when the chances of me winning are so ridiculously remote.

    Thank you
     
  16. Apr 23, 2016
  17. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    To update, Betfred have told me I can risk the £2,600 profit I have, and lose that, and still be able to withdraw my £8000.

    I cannot however risk the £500 bonus.

    So basically I have £2,600 to try and complete the rollover with completely risk free.

    Blackjack in fact only counts 10% towards the rollover. I may as well forget that.

    I don't actually understand how to play slots, and I believe the maximum per spin is only £2.50. If this is the case (could someone confirm or deny this)-I'd have to do 10,000 spins.

    I'm no idiot, doing 10,000 spins as a 0.96 underdog gives me about as much chance of remaining positive as becoming King of England.

    Does anybody disagree that I should just screw this and withdraw the £8,000. it does feel like a waste, given that I can wager £2,600 absolutely risk free, but what's the point in even trying when the chances of me winning are so ridiculously remote.

    Thank you
     
  18. Apr 23, 2016
  19. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk

    If that's the case then go play the £2,600 on Thai paradise @ £4.50 a spin make sure you double check what the max bet is tied to the wagering , only if you have in concrete evidence that your not going to run into any problems,

    That way your nothing to lose free play who knows you may fly via wagering & get a really good withdrawal.

    Main thing is to treble check the terms on max bet .
     
    2 people like this.
  20. Apr 23, 2016
  21. nutnut

    nutnut 30 day suspension - trollish behavior

    Occupation:
    IP consultant
    Location:
    england
    i wouldn't trust that bald manc as far as i could throw him. get your money out never deposit that amount with such a vile man again. awful bookmaker
     
    1 person likes this.
  22. Apr 23, 2016
  23. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    Agreed Mr Jones, but why only £4.50 per spin? Surely the more I wager per spin, the less the house edge can compound and the better my chances of hopefully getting lucky and hitting the jackpot.

    I know the maximum each spin can add towards my rollover requirement is £100, so if I am able to place £100 per spin, I should do that surely.

    Since the return to player on Thai is 0.96. And I'd have to do 282 spins to complete the rollover (in the unlikely case I get that far before my £2,600 is lost), is my maths correct in thinking I have about a 1 in 1000 chance of being positive after the 282 spins.

    I got that number by doing £100 (per spin) multiplied by 0.96 (house edge) to the power of 283 (total spins)

    So 100*(0.96^283) comes to 0.00096107869.

    Can anyone confirm or deny whether my maths is correct! Thanks
     
  24. Apr 23, 2016
  25. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    Doubt its got anything to do with maths ( variance is the term hot or cold ), but if your going to spin at £100 a pop it only 26 spins. this leaving you zero other than your deposit granted highly doubtful you would lose 26 spins in a row but complete waste of time.

    your better doing lower spins @ £4.50 or £9 quid or whatever you feel is good & giving it a chance , this would give you a better chance of profit & to ride out loads of bad spins , up to you how you play it but £2600 in a slot at £100 a spin in nothing it could munch that really quickly.

    Im not the best to suggest for you what to do . im just saying that i would play it at lower stakes , if the machine seems like its playing well ,then yes i would make bigger stakes , if not then drop your stakes , etc etc
     
  26. Apr 23, 2016
  27. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    Take the good with the bad lower stakes means more spins giving you a better chance , higher stakes cold spot on machine pretty much means bust out.
     
  28. Apr 23, 2016
  29. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    What do you mean about hot and cold variance?
    Since I'm an underdog on each individual spin, doesn't that mean the fewer spins I do, the higher the probability I could win.

    I'm not bothered if I lose it all in 2 minutes or in 2 days of straight play, I just want to give myself mathematically the best possible chance of coming out positive having fulfilled the wager requirements.

    If I were only to do the £9 a spin, I'd have to over 3,000 spins, as opposed to 282 if I do £100 a spin.

    I no very little about how slots work, so I could be incorrect in my logic.

    S
     
  30. Apr 23, 2016
  31. Samy-Limn

    Samy-Limn Full Member

    Occupation:
    Management Consultant
    Location:
    London
    Forget it guys, cheers for the feedback.

    Betfred casino customer support just sent me this

    'We will only be willing to guarantee that you can withdraw the £8000 if we are to process this now and void the remaining bonus and pending winnings, this would mean that any winnings thereafter can be withdrawn.

    We have provided you with all the relevant information if you wish to continue playing with the pending winnings but we would not be willing to guarantee that your original deposit will be available to withdraw if you do choose to continue.

    If you would like us to remove this bonus from your account and leave you with your original deposit of £8000 then please let us know, however from this point on we will not provide any further information in regards to this matter and any correspondence will not be responded to.'


    Clearly my only option is to withdraw the £8000 immediately and lesson learnt. I only deposited in the first place because I was drunk, and I certainly never will again.

    I don't understand how on earth bookmakers get away with acting like they do. The way they've treated me is paramount to extortion.
     
    2 people like this.
  32. Apr 23, 2016
  33. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    As clearly you do not understand , take your deposit back of £8000 & don't play again )
     
    1 person likes this.
  34. Apr 23, 2016
  35. naththo

    naththo Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Currently working as a clerk casual part time for
    Location:
    Adelaide, South Australia.
    Betfred did lose accredited this year due to no activity from any reps.

    Betfred lost accredited this year due to no activity from any reps. Enter at your own risk!
     
    1 person likes this.
  36. Apr 23, 2016
  37. lnspin

    lnspin Senior Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    Webmaster - Mygamblinglife.com
    Location:
    WorldWide
    It really sounds as this is the first time you have played at an online casino? If so why have you made such a large first deposit//

    But im starting to think this is a massive level
     
  38. Apr 23, 2016
  39. nutnut

    nutnut 30 day suspension - trollish behavior

    Occupation:
    IP consultant
    Location:
    england
    Yeh, the saying more money than sense comes to mind for me. You deposit 8k and tie it to a 500 bonus ? You don't understand how slots work, i now see why bookmakers get rich. :eek:

    You're very lucky they are allowing you to withdraw.
     
    1 person likes this.

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