I deposited £8000 into the betfred casino, and stupidly accepted the high roller £500 bonus. I turned my £8,500 into £11,600 on blackjack, but now I can't withdraw the £3,100 profit, and I have only 6 more days to rollover my bonus sufficiently before they remove my bonus money and winnings (£500 and £2,600 profit).
There terms and conditions are here.
I have another £28,291 to roll over, you see that only 20% of each blackjack wager counts towards the bonus rollover, so I'd have to wager £141,455 playing blackjack to complete the rollover. Since Betfred's maximum bet is £100 on each 5 hands, I'd have to play another 282 hands to complete this. Given I only have £2,600 profit and am not going to risk losing any of my original £8000 deposit, I have a tiny tiny chance of being positive having played these hands. Could anyone good at maths tell me roughly what my actual chances of being positive are, and what the most likely outcome is! I believe on Betfred the theoretical return percentage to the player is 99.58%. Since this applies not just to the 282 total hands I'll play, but also each 5 wagers within the hand, am I correct in thinking that I only have a 0.00259% chance of being positive at the end. I calculated 0.9958 to the power of 1410? If so it seems hardly worth even trying.
Alternatively I could play Slots, Jackpot Slots, Arcade Games, Tens or Better, 25 Lines Aces and Faces, 50-Lines Jacks or Better, 10-Lines Progressive Jacks or Better, all of which each wager contributes 100% towards the bonus rollover. In other words I'd need to wager only £28,291. Does anyone know the house edge of these games, I assume the reason they contribute 100% towards the bonus is because the house edge is larger, and the probability of winning is far lower on each spin etc.
Carribean Poker, Red Dog Poker, Let it Ride, Stravaganza, and Sic-b all contribute 50% towards the bonus rollover. I have no idea how these games work.
Basically I'm looking at what mathematically gives me the best chance of being able to rollover the bonus sufficiently to withdraw, and I'm not risking any of my £8000. If anybody could explain to me mathematically what I should do, and be quick as I only have 6 more days before my winnings are removed!-I'd not only be appreciative, but I'd cut them 5% of whatever I withdraw. So If I get lucky and remain postive with what I have now and I withdraw £3,100-I'll give them £165.
Thank you for reading and any feedback is appreciated!
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I have another £28,291 to roll over, you see that only 20% of each blackjack wager counts towards the bonus rollover, so I'd have to wager £141,455 playing blackjack to complete the rollover. Since Betfred's maximum bet is £100 on each 5 hands, I'd have to play another 282 hands to complete this. Given I only have £2,600 profit and am not going to risk losing any of my original £8000 deposit, I have a tiny tiny chance of being positive having played these hands. Could anyone good at maths tell me roughly what my actual chances of being positive are, and what the most likely outcome is! I believe on Betfred the theoretical return percentage to the player is 99.58%. Since this applies not just to the 282 total hands I'll play, but also each 5 wagers within the hand, am I correct in thinking that I only have a 0.00259% chance of being positive at the end. I calculated 0.9958 to the power of 1410? If so it seems hardly worth even trying.
Alternatively I could play Slots, Jackpot Slots, Arcade Games, Tens or Better, 25 Lines Aces and Faces, 50-Lines Jacks or Better, 10-Lines Progressive Jacks or Better, all of which each wager contributes 100% towards the bonus rollover. In other words I'd need to wager only £28,291. Does anyone know the house edge of these games, I assume the reason they contribute 100% towards the bonus is because the house edge is larger, and the probability of winning is far lower on each spin etc.
Carribean Poker, Red Dog Poker, Let it Ride, Stravaganza, and Sic-b all contribute 50% towards the bonus rollover. I have no idea how these games work.
Basically I'm looking at what mathematically gives me the best chance of being able to rollover the bonus sufficiently to withdraw, and I'm not risking any of my £8000. If anybody could explain to me mathematically what I should do, and be quick as I only have 6 more days before my winnings are removed!-I'd not only be appreciative, but I'd cut them 5% of whatever I withdraw. So If I get lucky and remain postive with what I have now and I withdraw £3,100-I'll give them £165.
Thank you for reading and any feedback is appreciated!