How do the odds work?

Foz72

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Oct 5, 2007
Location
UK
Hiya all,

Im new to this site and ive only really just started playing online casinos in the last month or so.

I know generally theres a ruld of thumb whereby the odds are slightly in the house's favour.

But what i want to know is how does it work?

for example, if i played for 10 mins a day rather that 1 hour a day, would my chances be less of losing? or is it a case of the results are remembered over time and at some point you will lose whatever you made during the time youve played.

so if i played for 10mins a for 10 days day and won 10 a day would i have the same chances as if i played for 100 mins in one day?

Does that make sense? I hope so lol!

Also one more question, is the outcome of a roulette table based on how many times ive won previously? eg If i bet on red lets say, would the 'program' look to see how many times ive previously won and then so make sure a black was rolled? Or is it really 'random'?

The reason im asking is that sometimes the roulette tables just dont seem to be 'random' enough, so one time you'll have 9 runs on one colour? etc.

Phew a lot of questions for somone new! hahah.

Thanks for your help guys.

Foz72.
 

lojo

Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht
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USA
Welcome Foz:)

A good casino will use a state of the art Random Number Generator (RNG) it is absolutely, with all the supercomputers on earth chained together, unpredictable.

The House Edge on a roulette table are simply the green spaces (american roulette has 2 zeros, european has one zero.)
As there are 36 numbers 1-36 and one zero (equals 37) if you place a bet on one number your odds are 37:1 and the game will pay 36 times (36x) your bet.
So if you take 36/37 you see .9729729 subtract this from 1 and you have the house edge (HE) of .027027 or a house advantage of almost 3%.

Theoretically if you took 1,000,000,000 dollars and played one number (any number) for one dollar each spin, for a billion spins you would end up with $972,972,972 this means you've gotten your expected payout percentage of 97.29% and the house has gotten its 2.702%
As you can well imagine, if you take your $972,972,972 and spin it away at one dollar each spin until it's cycled through, you will have another loss equal to the HE (give or take a very slight variation)

Any time during those 1,000,000,000 spins you may very well see 9 blacks in a row or 13 reds or even the number 17 come up three or more times in a row.

Now take your red or black (odd/even) bet there are 18 reds and 18 blacks and one green... 18 chances to win and 19 chances to lose.
18/19=.94736 you can do the math from there. You'll get back about 95c for every dollar you bet in the long run. (it takes way more than 100 bets to meet the average.

And there's the good news (or not) you can bet and if you are lucky you will come out ahead at some point (or you may not) and if you simply quit when you are ahead you have a better chance in the long run:D

There's no way to answer you question about 'how often betting', except to say that unless you quit when you are ahead you will eventually lose, and the less you play the less you will probably lose. On a game like roulette you are going to get more or less the same results whether you spin once per day for a 10 years or 36,510 times in one day.


Hoped that helped All of the casinos listed here http://www.casinomeister.com/casinos.php will give you a true RNG (as far as anybody knows:)) They are your best bet for several reasons.

Best of luck to you:thumbsup:
 

happygobrokey

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Joined
Jul 24, 2006
Location
canada
the games should be independant, that is, they don't take into account previous games or trials. that is why red can come up 9 times or more in a row. although the sequence "RRRRRRRRR" is very unlikely to happen, each time the wheel spins, it is still 50/50 to come up red. only the rogues of the highest order would take measures against previous wins that are a normal part of variance.

variance is the idea that your actual results will vary from the expected return. slots return about 95%, so with no variance you would put in a dollar and get 95 cents back every time. variance happens because sometimes you win more, other times you lose more. but if you played forever (with an infinite bankroll), you will end up overall with 95% of all the money you put into the machine. in statistics, we say the bigger the sample size, the closer to the true mean you get, and with less variance.

for instance, if you make one spin for $1 and make $50, your return is 5000%. if you make the same spin and win nothing, your return is 0%. these are extreme cases, and the more spins/hands you play, the closer you will get to what the game truly pays. playing for longer only brings you closer to the theoretical return, it doesn't mean you will do "better or worse". this goes back to independance, your odds are the same every time you make the bet.

the only thing playing for less time will do is keep you from putting too much money on the table. obviously you stand to lose less actual money if you're only putting $50 in play rather than $500, but you won't necessarily lose any less often.

the rules are formulated to be in the house's favour, so that their "cut" is built right into the game. it does not need to bother looking at past results, because over the long run, the players get less than $1 back for every $1 they play anyway. runs of good and bad luck are going to happen, that's variance, and that's the reason we make bets, risking money to try to get lucky in the short term.

that's why casinos make you wager so much (usually on less favourable games, ie those that return less to the player each time on average) when they give you a bonus, because the game is structured for you to slowly lose it back if you play long enough. even if you get lucky streaks along the way, the built-in house edge makes them the winners in the end.

gambling in a casino is always a losing proposition, every bet is designed to give you back less than you wager, and if you played forever, you are guaranteed to go broke. so the key to making a profit is to play only in the short term (how short is up to you, even a year can be a short term) and exit while you are winning. variance is your friend and your enemy. variance determines a win or loss in a session. your aim is to cash out while on the positive side of variance.

visit wizardofodds.com for more info on variance and the house edge of specific games. getting familiar with these concepts is what will make you more likely to be a winning player. play smart to give yourself the best chances. i hope this answers some of your questions and puts you on the path to understanding the essence of gambling. :thumbsup:
 

Foz72

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Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Location
UK
Wow that certainly is a very good description, thanks for taking the time to write that out, i appreciate it!

Well i do tend to play only for short burts and quite when im winning, even if its just a few pound, although the problem is with that is i have to play a good number of times to gain a little each time to cover for when i lose!

But i am new to all this and so im learning every day, thanks again for your help!

Foz.
 

Foz72

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Oct 5, 2007
Location
UK
Another great reply, thanks happy!

My concerns were that all the previous results were remembered and so future results were based on previous ones. For example if you won 3 times in a row then youre going to be due for a loss pretty soon!

Thats why i tend to play for just short periods, and usually only a pound at a time! but still usually make about 10-20 loss so thats what brought me here to try to find some answers to these questions.

Thanks again guys for taking the time to explain!

Foz.
 

Casinomeister

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Staff member
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Jun 30, 1998
Location
Bierland
Wow that certainly is a very good description, thanks for taking the time to write that out, i appreciate it!

Well i do tend to play only for short burts and quite when im winning, even if its just a few pound, although the problem is with that is i have to play a good number of times to gain a little each time to cover for when i lose!

But i am new to all this and so im learning every day, thanks again for your help!

Foz.
Hi Foz,

Welcome to the forum!

Since you seem to be starting out, here are some references you should read up on:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

http://www.casinomeister.com/casino-research/
http://www.casinomeister.com/casino_pick.php
http://www.casinomeister.com/casinos.php

And don't forget to subscribe to Casinomeister's newsletter...

These will steer you into the right direction.

Cheerio!
 

happygobrokey

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Jul 24, 2006
Location
canada
something "being due" is known as the gambler's fallacy. it's a flawed idea because each trial/spin/hand is independant.

while it is true that "RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR" is probably more than a million to one shot, on the next spin the chance of getting R is still 50/50. you are only betting on the current spin, and in all the zillions of spins that have been spun and are yet to be spun, streaks as long as "RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR" will occur.

if i bet you i could flip a coin 10 times and have ten "heads" in a row, i will lose that bet with virtual certainty. but if i bet that 10 heads in a row will come somewhere in a million flips, there's a decent chance for that to happen. if i happen to flip nine heads in a row AND THEN bet you i can flip a tenth head, it's 50/50 that i'll win.

these are all different issues, and to say a result is due to come up on any single trial because of past independant trials is a fallacy. things can never be due, because each time it's always random. don't let it discourage you, though, just know that each game is a fresh start and nothing to do with past games.

:thumbsup:
 

Avatar73

Registered
Joined
Apr 15, 2007
Location
UK
Just a quick one! 17 reds in a row is not random, is it !? Ah, but it depends how many spins you look over. Play long enough, experience enough spins, and eventually a truly random game will throw u p17+ of the same colour in a row.

And about your 10/100 mins thing.... Yes, in a sense you could compress all the playing you do over your life into one long run, and theoretically, the outcome would be the same. If you play 10 mins a day, then you would expect after 10 days to be equivalent to one session of 100 mins. In a nutshell!
 

mrsddc

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Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Location
USA
Welcome Foz:)



As there are 36 numbers 1-36 and one zero (equals 37) if you place a bet on one number your odds are 37:1 and the game will pay 36 times (36x) your bet.
So if you take 36/37 you see .9729729 subtract this from 1 and you have the house edge (HE) of .027027 or a house advantage of almost 3%.

Theoretically if you took 1,000,000,000 dollars and played one number (any number) for one dollar each spin, for a billion spins you would end up with $972,972,972 this means you've gotten your expected payout percentage of 97.29% and the house has gotten its 2.702%
As you can well imagine, if you take your $972,972,972 and spin it away at one dollar each spin until it's cycled through, you will have another loss equal to the HE (give or take a very slight variation)

Who are you?

Where have you been all my life?

Please tell me you are not female.


:oops: I think I am in love!

What an amazingly gifted creation you must be
to possess the capacity to both process
and articulate with such specificity. :notworthy

When I grow up,
I pray my left and right hemispheres become fully integrated
just like the miraculous brain of lojo! :smilewink:
 

lojo

Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht
Joined
Jan 18, 2007
Location
USA
Ahhh shucks, (goes pigeon toed with one foot, rolls hat into a tight scroll, looks at the floor and blushes)

I'm all man, Denise and as Nash indicated a bit of a wildcard (as in lunatic loose cannon freakshow when I drinks a bit too much)

Please tell me that the mrs before ddc doesn't mean I'm sol before I even b e g (in) :D

lol, I'm commited, but ya can 'love' me from afar ifn y'ants to:oops:
 

Foz72

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Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Location
UK
thanks for the good replys again guys, i know a lot more today than i did yesterday!

And nearly played matchmaker it seems!

what a site eh?

Foz.
 

Foz72

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Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Location
UK
Welcome Foz:)

Theoretically if you took 1,000,000,000 dollars and played one number (any number) for one dollar each spin, for a billion spins you would end up with $972,972,972 this means you've gotten your expected payout percentage of 97.29% and the house has gotten its 2.702%
As you can well imagine, if you take your $972,972,972 and spin it away at one dollar each spin until it's cycled through, you will have another loss equal to the HE (give or take a very slight variation)
So pretty much what youre saying here is that if you keep on playing you WILL lose, if i played every day for 10 mins for a year lets say then i would be worse off? because the house has a 3% edge, i will be 3% down or thereabouts?

If this is the case then why do people play when ultimately theyre going to lose?

Am i reading this right? (told you i was new to all this!)

Foz.
 

Avatar73

Registered
Joined
Apr 15, 2007
Location
UK
So pretty much what youre saying here is that if you keep on playing you WILL lose, if i played every day for 10 mins for a year lets say then i would be worse off? because the house has a 3% edge, i will be 3% down or thereabouts?

If this is the case then why do people play when ultimately theyre going to lose?

Am i reading this right? (told you i was new to all this!)

Foz.
Yes! That's exactly it! You've finally seen the light! :thumbsup: ;)

The Casino ALWAYS wins! That's why it's such a lucrative business, and that's why you don't get loads of millionaires and bankrupt casinos.

So... why do people do it? Well sensible people realise they will lose, and do it for.. the fun? Experience? Free drinks? Night out? Fun? Always a chance of short-term gain? That's B&M casinos tho. Online? Well, fun... experience? possibly.

Also online, you can "bonus bag" (or whore, whatever) which, if done intelligently, can net you a tidy profit month in month out. I guess people COULD win in the short term? This is called variance. As said before, you don't lose the HE every go, or noone would play! Blat $500 on red, and roughly 50% chance of winning half a grand - some people would like this. Before you go down (which you ALWAYS do in the end) you may go up first, if you are "lucky". Also, on slots you have a very very very very very very very very very very very very very very minute chance of turning $1 into over $1M, which again, like the lottery and other sucker bets, pulls some people in.

But be careful! Even if you win, chances are that the casino will get it back one way or another. I did bonuses for a year, got 22k up, then lost it all in a few hours chasing ... well not even a loss, i was playing till i hit the bonus round, didnt hit it, chased the loss, and banged out. I'm back up a bit now, but just be careful!

And finally... yes you are right... you should always end up down by the amount you've bet times the average house edge you played against. You just hope for a nice upward variance!
 

lojo

Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht
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Location
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Yip, pretty much what Avatar said, Foz. But I would just add that if you do get up significantly, say with a good slot win, you can quit and be a winner! Or, more to the pleasure of gambling, reduce your bet size and/or play time so you can play a long time on your profit and still be in the running for one of those rare mega wins... or decide to quit after just one more bet and risk all of your profit on one spin of the roulette wheel, that really is your best bet overall. But you have to have disciplne to STOP.

A lot of the fun in it for me is just trying to figure out how many ways I can play and how many games I can play with myself as far as bankroll management goes. But really, there's no sense in playing at all if you can't afford to lose it, because it will happen, and it just takes a certain state of mind to not hate yourself when it happens, but rather focus on the fun you had... if it isn't fun, it's time to stop:thumbsup:
 

EasyRhino

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San Diego
The best rule of thumb is: the less you play, the less you'll lose. Structure your play however you like it... small bets, short sessions, whatever, so that you can handle it comfortably.

Or, if you happen to be ahead right now, just quit forever, and then you can declare yourself a winner!
 

happygobrokey

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Jul 24, 2006
Location
canada
... how many ways...I can play with myself...
you naughty boy lmao :thumbsup:

huh huh, you thaid "play with mythelf"

heh heh, yea! doi-oi-oinngg!
 

Foz72

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Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Location
UK
Right i think ive got it now (light bulb suddenly brightens)

ill be honest here, i know very little about casinos and gambling online, but over the last month i became interested in how it all worked.

You see lots of adverts claiming to bring you riches by using various systems, software (yes i even bought some of that! what a load of rubbish - im not going to put the name here but thankfully i didnt pay a lot - yep i fell for the blurb but was also interested how it worked) saw various supposedly 'systems' like the martingale? etc and unless someone is there to show you the rights and wrongs of all this then youre going to make mistakes on your own, as with anything when youre not familiar with it.

And ultimately i came up with a 'system' of my own (or so i thought) but after reading this, i think this system is variance!

So yes at the moment over the last mont work im 'up' as such by about 400 BUT thats not down to my system its down to variance i believe, so upon the advice of you guys im going to 'quit' whilst im ahead.

Although there was some excitement to playing and winning (even if it was small amounts) there was a few times i lost and only due to me being maybe foolish i kept betting but was LUCKY that i won again, otherwise id have been a victim to another casino, and looking back it does seem panic and emotion take over when youve just lost 200 on one bet and you carry on, but like i said i was 'lucky'

So yep im gonna stop whilst im ahead, although i may just save 100 of my 'winnings' to play with.......but isnt that where the biggest losers start off from?

I can certainly see the attraction though, especially if people are under the impression that their 'system' is working! I think i was for a short while then upon my quest i stumbled across this holy grail of a site!

Hoorah!!!

Maybe i can make some more money by marketing my so called 'system' as a software package on the Internet, after all i fell for it DOH!

Thanks guys, excellent advice and great banter!

Foz.
:cheers:
 

KasinoKing

WebMeister & Slotaholic..
webmeister
PABnonaccred
CAG
MM
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Bexhill on sea, England
The Casino ALWAYS wins! That's why it's such a lucrative business, and that's why you don't get loads of millionaires and bankrupt casinos.
...

I did bonuses for a year, got 22k up, then lost it all in a few hours chasing ... well not even a loss, i was playing till i hit the bonus round, didnt hit it, chased the loss, and banged out. I'm back up a bit now, but just be careful!
Some people might see those 2 statements as a contradiction...


Yip, pretty much what Avatar said, Foz. But I would just add that if you do get up significantly, say with a good slot win, you can quit and be a winner! Or, more to the pleasure of gambling, reduce your bet size and/or play time so you can play a long time on your profit and still be in the running for one of those rare mega wins... or decide to quit after just one more bet and risk all of your profit on one spin of the roulette wheel, that really is your best bet overall. But you have to have discipline to STOP.

A lot of the fun in it for me is just trying to figure out how many ways I can play and how many games I can play with myself as far as bankroll management goes. But really, there's no sense in playing at all if you can't afford to lose it, because it will happen, and it just takes a certain state of mind to not hate yourself when it happens, but rather focus on the fun you had... if it isn't fun, it's time to stop :thumbsup:
In a nutshell, by a nutcase! (His words - not mine! :rolleyes:)

Seriously though, Lojo & Avatar - superb posts! :notworthy
:thumbsup:
 

Avatar73

Registered
Joined
Apr 15, 2007
Location
UK
So yep im gonna stop whilst im ahead,

QUOTE]


.... may just possibly be one of the best decisions you ever make! :thumbsup:


KK - not quite sure where the contradiction is! The casino wins, and if it doesnt, SOOO many people get dragged back in by the thrill or greed for more, and lose all their winnings - like everything i carefully built over a year.
Yes, technically you can be "up", and the casino can... "lose"... but maybe in less than 1% of cases will it remain that way for a long period. Just remember that the casino will always win, and try to get you to stay and lose everything... bear that in mind, and you may *just* get out ahead!

I was discussing bonuses with someone once, and they just kept saying how the casino always won, and i kept refuting them, until i realised... i'd won loads on bonuses and then i lost all that as well. So really they were right; i thought i was winning all along, but in reality i was just being set up for a fall, as it were.

I mean you are right kk, i am now back up to 4k in the good zone, so am technically winning. But i just find it easier to always bear in mind that the casino is gunna win sooner or later..... unless i am extremely careful!
 

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