Can we win against casino playing baccarat or roulette

AlohaHawaii

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I am just wondering are there any winning formulas, to play baccarat or roulette, to win against casinos. To search for this formula, lets probe to the bottom, of why casinos always win. Lets probe!

Theoretically, assuming if there are no table limits and if we are allowed to double our stakes with each loses, then of course this is the winning formula. Of course, in all tables, there are wagering limits and so this cuts off this winning formula.

I have many friends who gamble in casinos and all of them lose. I dont believe that casinos always have better luck that causes us to lose. If luck is not the issue, then it has to be house advantage or human factor that causes us to lose.

Of course all of us know that in roulette and baccarat, the casinos have a house advantage over us. But is this advantage, huge enough to tip the tables in favour of the casinos so much so that ALLLL of us will lose eventually? Personally I dont think so because in roulette, the zero is only about 3% advantage ( 1 out of 37) and in baccarat, about 2-4 % advantage.

If house advantage is not the main cause of our loses, then the reasons have to be either human factor or human factor plus house advantage. If this is the case, then I would say that human factors are the main cause of our loses in casinos. If human factors are the main cause of our loses, then there should be a way to win against casinos.

May I have your views before I proceed further.
 

KasinoKing

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I am just wondering are there any winning formulas, to play baccarat or roulette, to win against casinos.
No.
If there was a way do you really think casinos would continue to offer these games?


Theoretically, assuming if there are no table limits and if we are allowed to double our stakes with each loses, then of course this is the winning formula. Of course, in all tables, there are wagering limits and so this cuts off this winning formula.
You answered your own question! :thumbsup:


If this is the case, then I would say that human factors are the main cause of our loses in casinos.
Agreed.
And the main human factor which leads to losses is people thinking they can beat the mathematical odds.
You might as well try to defy gravity!


If human factors are the main cause of our loses, then there should be a way to win against casinos.
There is! :thumbsup:
But it does not involve these games.
(They're not allowed in WR...;))
 

Matthew23

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Since there is absolutely zero skill involved in roulette, it doesn't matter if it's a human playing or a cockroach. A cockroach would win just as often as a human. :D

You will always lose in the long run no matter what game you play. So therefore it's best to think along the lines of the entertainment value, rather than the winning. That's why I play slots, they pay less, but they're more fun! :)
 

BingoT

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Do you really think people have Winning Systems to beat the casinos.
To me this is &*&^%$# but you do have some pro's that count cards.Just think if everyone had a way to Win Win Win all the time You would see many places fold and close the doors and look for pennies on the street for a paycheck.
And to any gambler we all think we have our own type of System that we can Win on.But in the long run we lose.
 

Jufo

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I am just wondering are there any winning formulas, to play baccarat or roulette, to win against casinos. To search for this formula, lets probe to the bottom, of why casinos always win. Lets probe!

If there was such a formula, everyone would be using it and casinos would go bankrupt. However, there is a theoretical possibility to do card counting in Baccarat (Live) which means that there are occasional situations where player has a small edge. But it is estimated that the hourly salary by doing this counting is less then $1 per hour. So Baccarat can be beaten but the hourly salary is very low.

Theoretically, assuming if there are no table limits and if we are allowed to double our stakes with each loses, then of course this is the winning formula. Of course, in all tables, there are wagering limits and so this cuts off this winning formula.

Yes, keep in mind that you would need to have infinite wealth as well. Suppose you start with $1 bet and get 20 losses in a row, and double your bet each time. You would need $1.05 million to do the next bet and there is still 50-50 chance that you lose even that million.

I have many friends who gamble in casinos and all of them lose. I dont believe that casinos always have better luck that causes us to lose. If luck is not the issue, then it has to be house advantage or human factor that causes us to lose.

It is in part the house advantage, but keep in mind that casinos usually win even if they don't have house advantage. That's because if you compare the bankroll of a casino and a player, it is easy to guess who is the one to run out of money first.

Of course all of us know that in roulette and baccarat, the casinos have a house advantage over us. But is this advantage, huge enough to tip the tables in favour of the casinos so much so that ALLLL of us will lose eventually? Personally I dont think so because in roulette, the zero is only about 3% advantage ( 1 out of 37) and in baccarat, about 2-4 % advantage.

Roulette has 2.7% advantage (1.35% in French Roulette even bets). Baccarat has 1.06% advantage if you bet on "Banker". So in general Baccarat is a better game in terms of house edge. The small 1% - 3% house edge actually makes a huge difference on how well you do in the game, because the house edge is present in each bet even if you win! It would be totally different if the house edge would be deducted from your balance only once and then you would play 100% return games as much as you like.

If house advantage is not the main cause of our loses, then the reasons have to be either human factor or human factor plus house advantage. If this is the case, then I would say that human factors are the main cause of our loses in casinos. If human factors are the main cause of our loses, then there should be a way to win against casinos.

May I have your views before I proceed further.

Human factors cause losses only if there is a game where you can play incorrect strategy but other than that human factors don't have anything to do with chances of winning. Like previous poster said a cockroach would win as easily in the casino.

The only way to win against casinos is to play Casino bonuses with optimal strategy and retain as much value of those bonuses as possible during play-through. There are people doing this as their full-time job, you know.
 
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james01

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The real reason why casinos win is that humans don't stop when they're ahead. If everyone stopped as soon as they were a bit ahead, the casinos would lose. No one wants to walk away with a little win. They want to walk away with a BIG win!

Chasing the big win is why we usually lose.
 

Matthew23

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The real reason why casinos win is that humans don't stop when they're ahead. If everyone stopped as soon as they were a bit ahead, the casinos would lose.

It's true that people don't always stop when they're ahead, but that's not why the casino wins. It's a mathematical certainly that the casino will win in the long run. Just like 10 + 10 = 20..... no matter what angle you look at it, it will always equal 20.

If you win it's covered by someone elses losses. If you lose they'll use it to pay other winners. Over all the the casino makes $0.04 for ever $1 spin you make, regardless of the outcome of that particular spin.
 

Jufo

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The real reason why casinos win is that humans don't stop when they're ahead. If everyone stopped as soon as they were a bit ahead, the casinos would lose. No one wants to walk away with a little win. They want to walk away with a BIG win!

Chasing the big win is why we usually lose.

Unfortunately the concept "Quit while you are ahead" usually fails. You can walk away from the casino with a small win but you will most certainly come back at some point (maybe even after 20 years) and eventually lose it back.

This concept is known as "Gambler's conceit" and it is well explained in the following Wikipedia article:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
 

SlotMonster

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Hello, AlohaHawaii!
Regarding your question. Actually I cannot say anything about Baccarat, because I didn't play it even once. As for Roulette, so I think it can be beaten. I know, some time ago I made the mathematical research and it was proven that Roulette can't be beaten, but it's all about internet-casinos. Playing Live Roulette in internet-casino or in land-based casino, you can beat it using "visual tracking". It's something like "betting system", when you can predict in which sector the ball will fall. To predict the sector you have to know several factors:
1. The radial velocity of roulette wheel (and it's radius) in that moment when a ball tears off from a dealer's hand.
2. The speed of a ball in that moment when when the ball tears off from a dealer's hand.
3. Friction force between a ball and a wheel when spin.
4. The sector in which ball teas off from a dealer's hand.

To determine the speed of a ball and a wheel you need high quality video-camera, which is connected with powerful PC. The camera will transmit the video on PC, and special program will analyze the data and make predictions.
But be careful, because casinos do not allow players to bring their cameras and shoot the wheel :D

You also can use your eyes. Because if you know the factor #3, can determine (by sight) factors ##1,2 and 4, so you can predict (roughly) where the ball will fall. Of course, you have to do a lot of math before you will be able to determine sector :)
 
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AlohaHawaii

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Hello, AlohaHawaii!
Regarding your question. Actually ..........sector :)

Hi SlotMonster and friends,
I have thought about your suggestions. I agree that we can calculate exactly which sector the ball will land but because the ball is bouncing and rolling after it land, it is difficult to know which sector it will stop. Nevertheless , this will still give us an edge.

With regards to baccarat and roulette, I still feel that there "could" be a theoretical winning strategy. I agree that casinos have a house advantage but I am not convince that this house advantage is enough to swipe us away.

I still feel that eventually most of us lose because of our human setbacks such as greed, impatience, etc. In fact, when most of the players lose, they lose more than that house advantage which the casinos should win, and in most case they lose everything in their pocket, example if they play baccarat for 2 hours, betting on average of about $100, sometimes putting more bets, sometimes less and when they are losing, they just put more and more until they lose everything. This is a very common scenario for most players.

Because casinos knows that it is very difficult for a human being to control themselves especially when losing, and when a player lose, they lose more than that "house advantage" as mentioned, and in most cases, when losing they will lose everything, henceforth these casinos are willing to handout very attractive perks to entice players to their casinos, these perks can include free accomodations, meals, planes, transport, 1% rolling rebates etc. and these perks can work out to be more than the "house advantage". There are many cruise ships that offer perks too and at the end of the day we will still see many players losing a lot of money. I am therefore very inclined to think that casinos win because of our human setbacks.

to be continued tomorrow........
 

AlohaHawaii

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Unfortunately the concept "Quit while you are ahead" usually fails. You can walk away from the casino with a small win but you will most certainly come back at some point (maybe even after 20 years) and eventually lose it back.

This concept is known as "Gambler's conceit" and it is well explained in the following Wikipedia article:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

I fully agree with you. I can guarantee that no humans on earth can overcome the above shortcomings. Not even a soul! It is almost impossible for a gambler to quit when winning.
 

Jufo

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The best way to beat roulette is by making a even bet lets say 100$

after you win never play roulette again!

:notworthy

You know what is even better. Never play in the casino at all. That is 0% House Edge for you ;)
 

SlotMonster

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You know what is even better. Never play in the casino at all. That is 0% House Edge for you ;)

And what about casinos with "No House Edge" feature? ;)
 

james01

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My point still stands - the longer you play, the more you lose. If you played a hundred dollars on a penny slot (I know, an imaginary penny slot) with a payout of 96%, you should theoretically be left with $96 after your play session. If you played every single penny once, then your final total would be pretty close to that $96. If, at that point, you stopped, you might find that you were ahead by a couple bucks. But no one stops at that point. What you do instead is that you then play all of that $96, leaving you with $92.16, which you then play through, leaving you with $88.47 and so on.

*yes, I needed my calculator for that, and yes, I realize that this is based on a statistical probability, not an actual number.

There are generally two things that will end this pattern. One is a gigantic win. The other is going broke. Statistically, the second is more likely.

So basically, if you're looking for a way to win big, you either have to have unlimited funds and an unlimited table and use a betting strategy on a game where the probability of winning each bet is close to 50/50, or you have to have been born under a lucky star.

Otherwise, your best way to come out ahead is to never spend any small win on more gambling.
 

Jufo

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My point still stands - the longer you play, the more you lose.

Otherwise, your best way to come out ahead is to never spend any small win on more gambling.

It is true that the shorter your playing session is, the higher are your chances of being ahead. Players often lose because they keep on gambling for too long.

But it doesn't help you in any way to walk away from casino after a small win if it means that you just come back the next day. You lose exactly the same amount but it is just divided on a longer time period.
 

SlotMonster

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Yes, of course that too. I have done a lot of gambling at Betfair Zero Lounge. The only problem is limited game selection.

Try Betvoyager - the are offering ALL their game with "No House Edge" feature. I think you'll be satisfied :)
 

LaHutti

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I agree with a lot of things that has already been said.
I think the main reason people loose, comes down to greed.
If you win, a little, you want to win more, and if you keep playing the same game/machine, and even up your bets, that's the best and fastest way to bankrupcy.
On the other hand, if you loose, you tend to start chasing your loss, because, ofcourse your luck has to turn at some point....ummm...no it won't :) and you'll loose even more, unless you hit that unlikely big one.
In my experience ... mostly playing slots ... low rolling, winning a feature or two, and leave the machine while you're up, (believe me, I know it's not always easy to leave after a win) is THE best way of winning/minimizing your loss. There are plenty of slots ou there to play, so you don't have to play the same one for hours.
At the same time....have a goal, and STICK to it !!!!
If you have a goal, that you want to win, let's say 50% of your initial deposit amount, LEAVE when you reach it...if you loose your deposit LEAVE, and don't redeposit to try and get your lost money back...most likely you won't !
So...bottom line for me is ... it's 99.9% human factor = greed
 

bryand

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To be continued tomorrow.....

If I could only find that infamous thread where some guy argued with everone on CM about statistics of RNG's and whether slots were really random. I just remember him having the record for lowest reputation points. I'm just saying....
 

GaryWatson

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The casino has a house edge.

A cap on the betting ensures players dont double up & double up until they win.

A player can get short gains by selecting 30/37 numbers on the roulette wheel. They are fav to win, but in the long term they still lose, because when they lose its a steeper %.

Sites like betfair, who claim to have 0%, maybe they do. That is viable because of their bankroll.

It has been called greed, maybe it is but in reality, many players lose through to poor bankroll management.

Players will up their stakes until they suffer the swings and arrows of outragous fortune, ie they step beyond the variences. The casino cant lose on this because they cap the betting. Hence in the end they win.

So betfair, with their sportbook, could viably do this because they know the money is coming back to them through different avenues & the capped betting means they can stay ahead of the game & collect from the steamers.
 

james01

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the other problem with doubling up is that you only come out a little ahead. Say you play:
1
2
4
8
16
32 and then you win even money.
You've spent 63 and you win 64. It's not much of a profit margin for you. If you double up and win more than even money, you come out decently ahead, but then you're really at risk, because your chances of hitting go way down.

Basically, if you don't have a very huge bankroll, it's just not reasonable to expect to be able to beat the casino that way.

Add in the table limits, and you just can't do it.
 

GaryWatson

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Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) . I wrote that a while back. My friend goes to great lengths to beat the casinos. Many hours of thought. They are not there to be beaten, they are there for enjoyment, a chase for that big win. Some get it, very few, but those who do are great ads for the casinos. Sometimes I figure there are shills lurking in the winners screenshots. It makes more sense to the casinos than spamming a particular site.

1) Rule No.1 Don't waste your time trying to outsmart the casino. All bases are covered.

2) Rule No.2 If you win, enjoy the money and buy something with material value because it will only go back.

All said, some online casinos should be embarrased by the scams they pull. The money is going back to them as long as they offer a little integrity & decent customer service.

Kahanwake should be blacklisted after the AP/UB crap. Any site with their accreditation should be taken with a pinch of salt & on the "BE VERY WARY" list. Apparently that incorporates about 50% of online sites, so what?

The less crap we are subjected to online the better. Kahanwake lost their credibility through AP/UB.

pokeraddict, I bet they knew of your friends over at 2+2. They were probably laughing at all the self proclaimed top internet players. Maybe they didn't work out that poker strategy was above their heads & you all would find them out. Ill bet my mortgage on the fact it wasn't Mark Seif, because no player with any brains would get caught. I know I wouldn't be dumb enough, with the knowledge they have.

Back to the fact that no one was taken to tast. Definately an insider job. Now they have professionals basically telling them where they went wrong. If Mark Seif has the cheating gene, he would surely be the one to teach the staff how to avoid red flags.

The fact that AB. UB & Kahanwake are still around proves that Kahanwake has no place in a legitimate industry. pokeraddict, I hope that answers your question about whitelisting. (P.S. It's just my opinion & many others who now consider poker less of a skill game, more of a roulette wheel)
 
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