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Will this bonus hunting plan work?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by stan, Jan 14, 2005.

    Jan 14, 2005
  1. stan

    stan Dormant account

    Location:
    uk
    Hi all,

    I know bonus hunting is a contentious topic and many people feel it is a thing of the past. I also know robot use is against most T&C, but would like your opinions on this bonus-hunting plan.

    A friend and I have researched and produced a list of casinos that allow BJ to fully count towards wager requirement.
    We only include casinos using particular software.
    We have basic strategy and house edge calculated for each type of BJ available with these casinos.
    We will program a bot to play the correct basic strategy for any particular casino type and BJ rules.
    We will calculate expected return using WR and house edge for each casino and rank the casinos.
    Exclude any casinos found on various online blacklists.
    We methodically go through our list of suitable casinos starting with the best ranked using the bot to meet the WR.


    So thats the plan, what do you think?

    Stan
     
  2. Jan 14, 2005
  3. buck

    buck Experienced Member

    Location:
    Midwest USA
    Bonus

    Stan,

    Give it a try, though it will depend on casinos you attack. I am not to sure that other factors are not embedded into the casino software to destroy the the true odds at most casino.

    Likewise one of the biggest difference in on line is the ability to change your wagering pattern that you can't do in land base.

    Buck
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2005
  4. Jan 14, 2005
  5. stan

    stan Dormant account

    Location:
    uk
    Which casinos

    Buck,

    We going for "reputable" casinos and software providers first and so taking a leap of faith on true odds.

    Regarding variation in betting patterns and bet sizes, unless we try to analyses the RNG I think flat betting to minimum stakes is the best option to get though the WR.

    Cheers
     
  6. Jan 14, 2005
  7. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    Stan,

    I never flat bet any game, and play very little Blackjack (10-20% max.), yet I do pretty well off casino bonuses. (My online gambling has been 100% totally self-funding for the last 3-years).

    People doing what you suggest, are only making the casino's tighter and tighter with the bonuses they can offer, making it much worse for everyone else.

    So why don't you get a life, have some fun, and try gambling instead! :D
    _
     
  8. Jan 14, 2005
  9. stan

    stan Dormant account

    Location:
    uk
    Hi KK
    Thanks for your comments and i understand your point of view.

    but regarding you comment:
    "So why don't you get a life, have some fun, and try gambling instead!"

    I love to gamble (too much) but i make a living from the gambling industry. So I can't afford to gamble with my living, to make sure i still can do this i try to look at every possability. Even if it pisses off some people.

    Cheers
     
  10. Jan 14, 2005
  11. Clayman

    Clayman Dormant account

    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    So that's why you wanted that software earlier.
    Like you say avoid using it for casinos that ban bots as silly as that is.
    Or are you going to try to make the bot mimic humna plays with delays between hands, etc?

    I flat-bet alot but almost never exclusively so I would consider that a small drawback. I'm sure you could stop it and play a few manual hands when and if you felt like it. And I guess you might give a little up on composition-dependent hands or can you program that too ? But that's not a big deal.


    You going to market it or just use it for your own purposes?

    How long will it take you to do this?
     
  12. Jan 14, 2005
  13. cipher

    cipher Banned member - being a jerk

    Hi Stan:

    If we were talking 5 to 6 years ago I can tell you unequivocally that the bonus thing would work and you'd probably make a decent amount of money out of it. But given the ridiculous wagering requirements and sticky bonus that are employed by nearly all of the casinos the advantage anticipated from the bonus is simply not to be had.

    Secondly, if your "bot" is based upon the casino's use of random number generators, your theory is flawed from the gate. As nearly all of the casinos are using pseudo random number generators, which are in fact "programable on the fly" or so to speak. In that the deck settings can and are manipulated by the casinos and in some cases those deck settings range anywhere from single deck to more than 200 decks without the player ever knowning with any degree of certainty what his or her current deck setting is set at.

    Plain and simply Stan, anything that you might be working on that even remotely takes in the workings of a random number generator will not yield to your benefit. Trust me, been there done that many years ago. But I do encourage your work and wish you all the best with it.

    Have a good one
     
  14. Jan 14, 2005
  15. Clayman

    Clayman Dormant account

    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    I would think it's exactly those increased WR's that would make a personal auto-play bot desirable. There is still positive EV in most bonus deals. Why would the anticipated advantage not be had?

    Maybe I don't even know what a bot is thinking it would react to the cards dealt by the server and just play the hand for you. In what way would it be reacting to the rng from the server?
     
  16. Jan 14, 2005
  17. Vesuvio

    Vesuvio Dormant account

    Location:
    UK
    The reports on the death of bonus hunting have been greatly exaggerated :D

    Cipher, I agree with you about the 'R'NGs of on-line casinos, but if you flat bet at the major software providers (perhaps with the exception of Playtech) you do get around the expected return overall, whatever wild streaks you suffer in the short term.

    I don't know if you'll get into any trouble from the 'robot' play clause in some t&cs, but good luck with that. Don't forget MG helpfully include their own in-built autoplay bot & there are still some decent offers you can use it for ;)

    Don't neglect sticky bonuses (all of these together make up a huge expected profit) and you should also play VP and possibly even slots offers.
     
  18. Jan 14, 2005
  19. Petunia

    Petunia Dormant account

    ** Just a thought, why would you announce your intensions here? *grin* I would certainly not give my game-play away ... yet.
    Just out of interest, is there a good amount of BJ allowed in the wagering to make this little endeavour worth your while? **
     
  20. Jan 14, 2005
  21. stan

    stan Dormant account

    Location:
    uk
    Cypher you misunderstood me, i only refered to the analysing the RNG if trying to fit betting patterns to it, we are not doing this at all.

    I know realtimegambling allows the casino to specify any number of deck, but as i said we are picking selected software providers.

    And yes clayman, that was why i posted earlier and the bot will just play perfect strategy for the BJ rules.
    Although it will be disguised!

    Regarding the stickys i will play one high stake hand at the start, if i win then use the bot.
    We will see how it goes!
    Not for sale (unless it doesn'r work) lol
     
  22. Jan 14, 2005
  23. Clayman

    Clayman Dormant account

    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    If you develop one for single-deck Micro, I'll be happy to beta-test it for you. :)
     
  24. Jan 14, 2005
  25. buck

    buck Experienced Member

    Location:
    Midwest USA
    Bj Bot with Bonus

    Stan,

    Are the Boss Media casino in your target. Most have excellent reputations, though not much coverage on this forum other they don't seem to trend towards replicating random number events as they should.

    Having played at MG with autoplay it is hard to get in the black but relatively easy to meet the WR. Although most now days won't allow autoplay to meet WR not a consideration for you but would replicate this.

    I would not want to risk a penny BJ bet at most of the RTG casinos these days.

    Playtech and Crypto don't give me a warm feeling with there BJ random events.

    G-FED sites are terrible for BJ.

    So that leaves you with some offbrands though some big sites. But bonuses are pretty stingy there.

    I have moved away from BJ to poker rooms, fishing is easier amongst the masses.

    Keep us posted.


    Good Luck,

    Buck







    Buck
     
  26. Jan 15, 2005
  27. Petunia

    Petunia Dormant account

    ** Black Jack being one of my favourite games and me not caring about the bonus at all... I have to wonder about those. The easy solution to this for the casinos would be to actaully remove BJ from the wagering T & C all together. I don't know if your system would simulate the autoplay, but I would wonder if the casinos could tell the diff. It would make for an interesting stat too to compare the autoplay hands with your system hands.... *grin* and of course.... you'd have to use your own money if the casinos just withdraw BJ from bonus. *sigh* for every up there is a down... IMHO. **
     
  28. Jan 15, 2005
  29. stan

    stan Dormant account

    Location:
    uk
    Thanks for all your comments,

    I generally agree with your thoughts on the best casino software to interact with. And that it is getting harder to find casinos that allow BJ to count towards WR.
    If BJ goes well i will expand to VP or other suitable games, one step at a time though.

    I'll keep you all posted as to how it goes, and clayman single deck micro is one of the 1st targets.

    Cheers
    Stan
     
  30. Jan 16, 2005
  31. Slaughtermeyer

    Slaughtermeyer Dormant account

    Location:
    USA
    Just curious, roughly how much of an edge does the use of 200 decks give the house? You should assume double down after splitting is allowed.
     
  32. Jan 16, 2005
  33. Clayman

    Clayman Dormant account

    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    I think infinite deck (which to me means the cards are shuffled after every CARD dealt) would give an extra 0.67% more than single deck assuming Las Vegas Strip rules. Which is only 0.09% more than 8 decks. 200 decks I don't know and I doubt that it exists.

    As far as I know, only RTG won't tell you how many decks they use because they can change it anywhere from 2 thru 8 decks.

    I don't trust anybody who won't categorically state they are dealing the same number of decks every day. The number of decks used should be part of the rules but it is not at RTG.
     
  34. Jan 16, 2005
  35. cipher

    cipher Banned member - being a jerk

    Gee that's funny Clayman maybe thats why I had an RTG casino only a couple of weeks ago have me run Cipher strands on single deck, 8 deck, 20 deck and unlimited deck settings. Go figure. Have a good one.
     
  36. Jan 16, 2005
  37. Clayman

    Clayman Dormant account

    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    You get me a bot that stands on 7,5 & 8,4 vs 3, hits 10,2 vs 4 & 6, hits 10,3 vs 2, hits 10,2,A vs 2 and stands on 3-card 12's vs 3 and 3-card 16's vs 10, I'll use/buy it, unless prohibited by the T&C.

    Can you hard-program in some specific composition-dependent plays?

    Feel free to PM me anytime if you think I can help.
     
  38. Jan 16, 2005
  39. Clayman

    Clayman Dormant account

    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    Well. if you are saying RTG can set their BJ game to any number of decks between 1 and infinity that's news to me but I wouldn't disbelieve it. Is that what you are saying? If so, I have no reason to believe that any casino who won't tell you how many decks they are using in the first place wouldn't try to figure out just how many decks they can use to maximize their advantage while at the same time not allowing the player to know just how many decks they are using.

    I can only guess that just such knowledge is what they hoped, as wrong as such hope may be, to gain by looking at your strands. Why else do you think they would ask for such a thing? Or, do you think they are afraid of your system and looking for ways to beat it?

    How many strands (hands) at how many different decks did you run for this casino? Do you think they figured out they won't gain more than 0.1% no matter how many decks they use?

    Regardless, I hate the fact that RTG will never tell you how many decks they are actually using, (no matter how many they can choose from), and assume the worst if I ever play there. Past 27 decks or so, I know of no plays that will change BS anyway.
     

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