Will this bonus hunting plan work?

[stan]

Hi all,

I know bonus hunting is a contentious topic and many people feel it is a thing of the past. I also know robot use is against most T&C, but would like your opinions on this bonus-hunting plan.

A friend and I have researched and produced a list of casinos that allow BJ to fully count towards wager requirement.
We only include casinos using particular software.
We have basic strategy and house edge calculated for each type of BJ available with these casinos.
We will program a bot to play the correct basic strategy for any particular casino type and BJ rules.
We will calculate expected return using WR and house edge for each casino and rank the casinos.
Exclude any casinos found on various online blacklists.
We methodically go through our list of suitable casinos starting with the best ranked using the bot to meet the WR.


So thats the plan, what do you think?

Stan

 

[buck]

Bonus

Stan,

Give it a try, though it will depend on casinos you attack. I am not to sure that other factors are not embedded into the casino software to destroy the the true odds at most casino.

Likewise one of the biggest difference in on line is the ability to change your wagering pattern that you can't do in land base.

Buck

 

[stan]

Which casinos

Buck,

We going for "reputable" casinos and software providers first and so taking a leap of faith on true odds.

Regarding variation in betting patterns and bet sizes, unless we try to analyses the RNG I think flat betting to minimum stakes is the best option to get though the WR.

Cheers

 

[KasinoKing]

Stan,

I never flat bet any game, and play very little Blackjack (10-20% max.), yet I do pretty well off casino bonuses. (My online gambling has been 100% totally self-funding for the last 3-years).

People doing what you suggest, are only making the casino's tighter and tighter with the bonuses they can offer, making it much worse for everyone else.

So why don't you get a life, have some fun, and try gambling instead!
_

 

[stan]

Hi KK
Thanks for your comments and i understand your point of view.

but regarding you comment:
"So why don't you get a life, have some fun, and try gambling instead!"

I love to gamble (too much) but i make a living from the gambling industry. So I can't afford to gamble with my living, to make sure i still can do this i try to look at every possability. Even if it pisses off some people.

Cheers

 

[Clayman]

So thats the plan, what do you think?Stan

So that's why you wanted that software earlier.
Like you say avoid using it for casinos that ban bots as silly as that is.
Or are you going to try to make the bot mimic humna plays with delays between hands, etc?

I flat-bet alot but almost never exclusively so I would consider that a small drawback. I'm sure you could stop it and play a few manual hands when and if you felt like it. And I guess you might give a little up on composition-dependent hands or can you program that too ? But that's not a big deal.


You going to market it or just use it for your own purposes?

How long will it take you to do this?

 

[cipher]

Hi all,

I know bonus hunting is a contentious topic and many people feel it is a thing of the past. I also know robot use is against most T&C, but would like your opinions on this bonus-hunting plan.

A friend and I have researched and produced a list of casinos that allow BJ to fully count towards wager requirement.
We only include casinos using particular software.
We have basic strategy and house edge calculated for each type of BJ available with these casinos.
We will program a bot to play the correct basic strategy for any particular casino type and BJ rules.
We will calculate expected return using WR and house edge for each casino and rank the casinos.
Exclude any casinos found on various online blacklists.
We methodically go through our list of suitable casinos starting with the best ranked using the bot to meet the WR.


So thats the plan, what do you think?

Stan

Hi Stan:

If we were talking 5 to 6 years ago I can tell you unequivocally that the bonus thing would work and you'd probably make a decent amount of money out of it. But given the ridiculous wagering requirements and sticky bonus that are employed by nearly all of the casinos the advantage anticipated from the bonus is simply not to be had.

Secondly, if your "bot" is based upon the casino's use of random number generators, your theory is flawed from the gate. As nearly all of the casinos are using pseudo random number generators, which are in fact "programable on the fly" or so to speak. In that the deck settings can and are manipulated by the casinos and in some cases those deck settings range anywhere from single deck to more than 200 decks without the player ever knowning with any degree of certainty what his or her current deck setting is set at.

Plain and simply Stan, anything that you might be working on that even remotely takes in the workings of a random number generator will not yield to your benefit. Trust me, been there done that many years ago. But I do encourage your work and wish you all the best with it.

Have a good one

 

[Clayman]

If we were talking 5 to 6 years ago I can tell you unequivocally that the bonus thing would work and you'd probably make a decent amount of money out of it. But given the ridiculous wagering requirements and sticky bonus that are employed by nearly all of the casinos the advantage anticipated from the bonus is simply not to be had.

I would think it's exactly those increased WR's that would make a personal auto-play bot desirable. There is still positive EV in most bonus deals. Why would the anticipated advantage not be had?

Maybe I don't even know what a bot is thinking it would react to the cards dealt by the server and just play the hand for you. In what way would it be reacting to the rng from the server?

 

[Vesuvio]

The reports on the death of bonus hunting have been greatly exaggerated

Cipher, I agree with you about the 'R'NGs of on-line casinos, but if you flat bet at the major software providers (perhaps with the exception of Playtech) you do get around the expected return overall, whatever wild streaks you suffer in the short term.

I don't know if you'll get into any trouble from the 'robot' play clause in some t&cs, but good luck with that. Don't forget MG helpfully include their own in-built autoplay bot & there are still some decent offers you can use it for

Don't neglect sticky bonuses (all of these together make up a huge expected profit) and you should also play VP and possibly even slots offers.

 

[Petunia]

** Just a thought, why would you announce your intensions here? *grin* I would certainly not give my game-play away ... yet.
Just out of interest, is there a good amount of BJ allowed in the wagering to make this little endeavour worth your while? **

 

[stan]

Cypher you misunderstood me, i only refered to the analysing the RNG if trying to fit betting patterns to it, we are not doing this at all.

I know realtimegambling allows the casino to specify any number of deck, but as i said we are picking selected software providers.

And yes clayman, that was why i posted earlier and the bot will just play perfect strategy for the BJ rules.
Although it will be disguised!

Regarding the stickys i will play one high stake hand at the start, if i win then use the bot.
We will see how it goes!
Not for sale (unless it doesn'r work) lol

 

[Clayman]

Not for sale (unless it doesn'r work) lol

If you develop one for single-deck Micro, I'll be happy to beta-test it for you.

 

[buck]

Bj Bot with Bonus

Stan,

Are the Boss Media casino in your target. Most have excellent reputations, though not much coverage on this forum other they don't seem to trend towards replicating random number events as they should.

Having played at MG with autoplay it is hard to get in the black but relatively easy to meet the WR. Although most now days won't allow autoplay to meet WR not a consideration for you but would replicate this.

I would not want to risk a penny BJ bet at most of the RTG casinos these days.

Playtech and Crypto don't give me a warm feeling with there BJ random events.

G-FED sites are terrible for BJ.

So that leaves you with some offbrands though some big sites. But bonuses are pretty stingy there.

I have moved away from BJ to poker rooms, fishing is easier amongst the masses.

Keep us posted.


Good Luck,

Buck







Buck

 

[Petunia]

** Black Jack being one of my favourite games and me not caring about the bonus at all... I have to wonder about those. The easy solution to this for the casinos would be to actaully remove BJ from the wagering T & C all together. I don't know if your system would simulate the autoplay, but I would wonder if the casinos could tell the diff. It would make for an interesting stat too to compare the autoplay hands with your system hands.... *grin* and of course.... you'd have to use your own money if the casinos just withdraw BJ from bonus. *sigh* for every up there is a down... IMHO. **

 

[stan]

Thanks for all your comments,

I generally agree with your thoughts on the best casino software to interact with. And that it is getting harder to find casinos that allow BJ to count towards WR.
If BJ goes well i will expand to VP or other suitable games, one step at a time though.

I'll keep you all posted as to how it goes, and clayman single deck micro is one of the 1st targets.

Cheers
Stan

 

[Slaughtermeyer]

Hi Stan:

In that the deck settings can and are manipulated by the casinos and in some cases those deck settings range anywhere from single deck to more than 200 decks without the player ever knowning with any degree of certainty what his or her current deck setting is set at.

Just curious, roughly how much of an edge does the use of 200 decks give the house? You should assume double down after splitting is allowed.

 

[Clayman]

Just curious, roughly how much of an edge does the use of 200 decks give the house? You should assume double down after splitting is allowed.

I think infinite deck (which to me means the cards are shuffled after every CARD dealt) would give an extra 0.67% more than single deck assuming Las Vegas Strip rules. Which is only 0.09% more than 8 decks. 200 decks I don't know and I doubt that it exists.

As far as I know, only RTG won't tell you how many decks they use because they can change it anywhere from 2 thru 8 decks.

I don't trust anybody who won't categorically state they are dealing the same number of decks every day. The number of decks used should be part of the rules but it is not at RTG.

 

[cipher]

I think infinite deck (which to me means the cards are shuffled after every CARD dealt) would give an extra 0.67% more than single deck assuming Las Vegas Strip rules. Which is only 0.09% more than 8 decks. 200 decks I don't know and I doubt that it exists.

As far as I know, only RTG won't tell you how many decks they use because they can change it anywhere from 2 thru 8 decks.

I don't trust anybody who won't categorically state they are dealing the same number of decks every day. The number of decks used should be part of the rules but it is not at RTG.

Gee that's funny Clayman maybe thats why I had an RTG casino only a couple of weeks ago have me run Cipher strands on single deck, 8 deck, 20 deck and unlimited deck settings. Go figure. Have a good one.

 

[Clayman]

single deck micro is one of the 1st targets.

You get me a bot that stands on 7,5 & 8,4 vs 3, hits 10,2 vs 4 & 6, hits 10,3 vs 2, hits 10,2,A vs 2 and stands on 3-card 12's vs 3 and 3-card 16's vs 10, I'll use/buy it, unless prohibited by the T&C.

Can you hard-program in some specific composition-dependent plays?

Feel free to PM me anytime if you think I can help.

 

[Clayman]

Gee that's funny Clayman maybe thats why I had an RTG casino only a couple of weeks ago have me run Cipher strands on single deck, 8 deck, 20 deck and unlimited deck settings. Go figure. Have a good one.

Well. if you are saying RTG can set their BJ game to any number of decks between 1 and infinity that's news to me but I wouldn't disbelieve it. Is that what you are saying? If so, I have no reason to believe that any casino who won't tell you how many decks they are using in the first place wouldn't try to figure out just how many decks they can use to maximize their advantage while at the same time not allowing the player to know just how many decks they are using.

I can only guess that just such knowledge is what they hoped, as wrong as such hope may be, to gain by looking at your strands. Why else do you think they would ask for such a thing? Or, do you think they are afraid of your system and looking for ways to beat it?

How many strands (hands) at how many different decks did you run for this casino? Do you think they figured out they won't gain more than 0.1% no matter how many decks they use?

Regardless, I hate the fact that RTG will never tell you how many decks they are actually using, (no matter how many they can choose from), and assume the worst if I ever play there. Past 27 decks or so, I know of no plays that will change BS anyway.

 

[cipher]

Well. if you are saying RTG can set their BJ game to any number of decks between 1 and infinity that's news to me but I wouldn't disbelieve it. Is that what you are saying? If so, I have no reason to believe that any casino who won't tell you how many decks they are using in the first place wouldn't try to figure out just how many decks they can use to maximize their advantage while at the same time not allowing the player to know just how many decks they are using.

I can only guess that just such knowledge is what they hoped, as wrong as such hope may be, to gain by looking at your strands. Why else do you think they would ask for such a thing? Or, do you think they are afraid of your system and looking for ways to beat it?

How many strands (hands) at how many different decks did you run for this casino? Do you think they figured out they won't gain more than 0.1% no matter how many decks they use?

Regardless, I hate the fact that RTG will never tell you how many decks they are actually using, (no matter how many they can choose from), and assume the worst if I ever play there. Past 27 decks or so, I know of no plays that will change BS anyway.

Hi Clayman: As players become more and more aware of RTG's ability to switch the deck settings I think it could seriously impact RTG's bottom line as well as that of their licensees. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see RTG losing a couple more of their main licensees in exactly the same way that they lost the Phoenician and Nostalgia casinos.

It will probably be a couple weeks before I'm able to say anymore than what I have on the strand data that I did put together. I'm sure there will be quite a lot more on that issue in the near future. Have a good one.

 

[Clayman]

As players become more and more aware of RTG's ability to switch the deck settings I think it could seriously impact RTG's bottom line as well as that of their licensees.

I think its always been known that RTG can switch their deck settings within some range and, like I said, if you already assume an 8 deck game, I think the most they can gain on BJ is 0.1%, no matter how many decks they choose to use. I would think they would know that with or without your strands. I don't think anyone thinks they use fewer than 4 decks.

The fact no one seems to care up to this point leads me to believe the majority of players don't really care that much anyway and 0.1% max gain would have negligible impact on anybody's bottom line anyway. I think not being up-front about the rules and not paying their customers has a much greater effect in negatively effecting their bottom line.

I assume you were required to flat bet in your strands since, at least as I've seen them in the past, they contain no data as to total units won or lost or even total dollars wagered. They could get alot more information from buying a simulation package for $100 or less. Unless, of course, they were using your strands to test their RNG in some way. And I don't even want to think about that.

Nonetheless, I look forward in the next couple weeks to whatever conclusions you may reach on such strands. If you think I can be of any help privately in that regard feel free to PM me.

What stated purpose did the casino have when they "asked" you to run strands on 1,8,20 and infinite deck settings?

Did you just call them up and say "OK I'm done with 20 decks now. Switch me over to infinite deck now just on my game"? Are you saying they can change the number of decks at their whim for any given individual, even, perhaps, from one hand to the next?

Am I to assume you performed this service for the casino free of charge? How eleemosynaryic of you.

 

[stan]

How many decks???

Would this help you check how many decks are in play?

Old / Expired Link

It would take many many hands to use this method to make an estimate as to how many decks are being used, and assumes the number of decks wouldn't change while testing. Still could be useful?


Cheers