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Daffy
You guys are thinking of the old Don Nelson Mavs...not the new improved Avery Johnson Mavs. These Mavs have out rebounded their opponents in 17 straight playoff games...this includes the SPURS.
You're right, this is a very different team. The old
MAVS would never have gotten past the 2nd round. You're also quite right that the Finals have already been played... but nobody told the
HEAT this so they don't really care what road the
MAVS took to get here.
I'm not sure what player you've been watching, because Wade is certainly faster than Ginobili. Parker and Wade are about the same speed, true, but Parker isn't Dwayne Wade either. Parker has NOT been a great playoff performer thus far in his career, and despite being only 24-years old, he's gone relatively deep into the playoffs each of his 5-seasons since joining the league. Wade has already demonstrated that he's been highly effective at being productive whenever he needs to be. He has that Jordan fire in him.
Another point to make here, is that this isn't the same
HEAT team that you may have seen in the regular season. This team has come together, and plays with purpose now. I couldn't say that at any point prior to April. Once the
HEAT figured things out in the
Chicago series, they haven't looked back. SHAQ has not looked "old" like he had all year. He's returned to his normal self these past few weeks. He's not looking so sluggish, and playing more of a finesse game. And frankly, his finesse game probably has more power than any other player's power-game.
I don't want to make excuses for the SPURS, because it was up to them to win their series with the
MAVS. But Duncan has been playing on a bad foot all year, and he was probably no better than Elton Brand this year... or another power-forward who averaged 20 pt/10 rebounds per game. I think that the
MAVS exploited that weakness as best as they could.
I'll spot Shaq and Wade 25pts each...where will the other 45pts come from???
Although I'm not an Antoine Walker fan by any stretch of the imagination, he's had a pretty great scoring/passing/rebound career in the 9-years prior to this one. I think what he brings cancels out whatever Jerry Stackhouse might bring. I think Stackhouse is far more explosive on the offensive end, but I think Wallace - ignoring his laissez-faire defense - has a more extensive offensive skill-set to work with. Walker is not the Walker of the past regular season, or first round of the playoffs. He was a big reason as to why the
HEAT played well against the
NETS and the
PISTONS. He's the teams primary X-factor. Like SHAQ, he's playing like he can and should be able to. It seems like Walker is ancient, but he's still only 30-years old!
Mourning, as the back-up PF/C, is better than any of the
MAVS centers. He led the league in blocks per minute this year, meaning he's still effective when he plays. Haslem is a solid rebounder, and reminds me of a shorter version of P.J. Brown. He's not as good as Brown at his peak, but he's not exactly a notch below him either. Jayson Williams, who I'm no fan of, is a different player than the one who played in
Sacramento several years back. Hardly a defensive wiz - in fact one of the league's worst - he seems to allow the game come to him better than at any other point in his career.
The biggest factor that you've been overlooking here dUck, is that the
HEAT players/coaches have tons of playoff experience, compared to the
MAVS. Yes, Avery Johnson was a key part of that '99
SPURS team that won it all. But the team's players haven't gone this deep. Nowitzky, as far as I can recall, is pretty much one of the only
MAVS players who've made it to the conference finals.
With the
HEAT, you've got:
- Gary Payton has tons of playoff experience, making it to the Finals twice, and to the conference Finals another time with the
SUPERSONICS back in the early '90s.
- Antoine Walker made it to the conference finals with the
CELTICS a few years back, and he was a massively BIG reason why they were lucky enough to get to that point (if anyone cared to remember that). Also, Walker was a pretty good (not very good... but good) player in his stint with the
MAVS, similar to Stackhouse, although Stackhouse has bought-into the team concept better than Walker had.
- SHAQ has been to the
NBA Finals 5 times, and has been the conference finals oh-so-many times. He REALLY wants to win, and probably more than any other year because these chances won't be around much longer. The Kobe/SHAQ feud has taken a backseat after this year's All-Star game (where they apparently kiss-and-made-up with the help of Bill Russell), but I'm sure that SHAQ wants to prove that he still has game and that he'll make good on his promise to Riley and the city of Miami.
- Wade and Haslem, specifically Wade, made it to the conference finals last year, took the
PISTONS to 7 games, so they're similar to the
PISTONS of '89 who inched their way closer to a championship. Okay, that
PISTONS teams took years to get there, but I get the sense that Wade is as hungry as Isaiah Thomas was back then. Wade won't regress in this series.
- If I had a team, I'd want Avery Johnson to be my coach. Period. But... that's Pat Riley on the other team. He's been to the Finals, what, 6 times? Sure, it's been a while since he got there, but he hasn't forgotten how to coach. Aside from Phil Jackson, he has the most playoff experience of any coach. Actually, just based on their astute knowledge of the game, Jackson would be left spinning-out-of-control in Riley's jet wash.
Dirk Nowitzky has been "uber-iffic" in these playoffs. He's played with a new set of mental toughness, that he's lacked over the years. He's a different player, he's confident, and this year, he's probably the games best big man who's really more of a small forward. Having said that, this is the first real test so far in the playoffs, where he'll have to take a beating down low. He won't have his way with the
HEAT, unless he's camping-out on the perimeter. I still feel that he'll get his points, but they'll be a HARD 25 PPG (just a prediction), whereas I don't think SHAQ or Wade will have to expend as much energy getting their points. Also, if Nowitzky does play more of a perimeter game in this series, I think that James Posey will be giving him a handful on the wings as well.
If we're talking about teams that like to push the ball and run,
DALLAS has proven that they can still do this. But look at what the
HEAT did to New Jersey in the 2nd round. The
NETS were probably the hottest team going into the playoffs, and they had the horses that many thought could run the
HEAT out-of-the-building. That didn't happen. Vince Carter lit them up in the regular season, and was hardly great in their series. This, again, is not the same
HEAT team you may have seen in the regular season.
Perhaps you're right that the Finals were already played in the 2nd round. I think that the
MAVERICKS will (as a team) do as they always have this season, but I just don't think big Dirk will be the same player he has been in the past 7-months. Hope I'm wrong though.
The
MAVS are not a low-post team, and while I agree that the West has greater teams across the board, who's to say that the
HEAT don't stack-up with the elite in the West. Sure, the
MAVS looked good down low in the 1st 3-rounds of the playoffs, but SHAQ, ZO, and Haslem are all healthy. It's difficult winning the big one dialing long-distance.
These Mavs have out rebounded their opponents in 17 straight playoff games...this includes the SPURS.
Again, Duncan was not himself this year. The
SPURS traditionally have been a good/great rebounding team, but I don't think that was the case this year as much as in years past. That "17 straight playoff games" has been pretty impressive, but you have to consider the competition. Even had the
SUNS won that series (which they obviously didn't), they
STILL would have been outrebounded.
In conclusion, the
MAVS have Larry Bird-lite on their team, while the
HEAT have Jordan-lite AND SHAQ-lite on their team. I think the rest of their respective teams are pretty much a wash. The
HEAT have far more toughness, the
MAVS have better wheels and are more youthful.
I'm going with the
HEAT in 6 because SHAQ will be SHAQ in at least 3-4 games, and Wade will be Wade in 5 of them. That'll be enough to get them over the hump.
Steed
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. He lost an airball to tyron bogues
:notworthy 
(i suppose that makes me a really good, bad handicapper)
