ToddBertuzzi
Dormant account
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2007
- Location
- Copenhagen Denmark
Hello everyone. I just joined this VERY nice site, and have BlackJack question.
I've read the rules, and i will not post the name of the internetcasino yet, as i wan't your input of the possibility of this happening.
On Saturday I played a BlackJack session on an internet-casino. I doubt that the result i got, consist with a fair game.
I played 236 hands, with an average stake of 280 Euro.
I played a perfect game, which means I draw, double and stand as I should to obtain the best possible result.
The expected loss with the rules at the casino is 0.50168%. This means I am expected to lose 280 *0.0050168 = 1.404704 euros per hand
Playing 236 hands I am expected to lose 331,51 euros. The actual loss was 8.500,00 euro.
First card distribution:
Dealer: Expected
A: 27 18
T: 77 72
9: 11 18
8: 15 18
7: 18 18
6: 12 18
5: 17 18
4: 21 18
3: 22 18
2: 16 18
The interesting part here is that the dealer got the best card, an ACE, 50% more often than expected.
On the same note the dealer was expected to get the worst card, a SIX, 50% more often than he actually did.
Out of the 236 hands played, the player busted 52 times, leaving a sample of 184 hands, where the dealer had to draw cards.
The dealer is expected to bust 31% of all hands.
Expected busts: 184*0.31= 57 times
Actual busts = 49
The dealer was expected to bust 14% more often than he actually did.
The probability of a dealer bust with first card dealt:
Total hands = 236-52(busted hands by player)=184 hands sample total.
Hands busted by dealer with (3)
Times dealt = 22
Expected busts = 22*0.3756 = 8.26
Actual busts = 8
Hands busted by dealer with (4)
Times dealt = 21
Expected busts = 21*0.4028 = 8.46
Actual busts = 7
Hands busted by dealer with (5)
Times dealt = 17
Expected busts = 17*0.4289 = 7,2
Actual busts = 8
Hands busted by dealer with (6)
Times dealt = 11 (12 including blackjack for player)
Expected busts = 11*0.4208 = 4.6
Actual busts =3
Hands busted by dealer with (7)
Times dealt = 18
Expected busts = 18*0.2599 = 4.68
Actual busts = 3
Hands busted by dealer with (8)
Times dealt = 15
Expected busts = 15*0.2386 = 3.58
Actual busts = 3
Hands busted by dealer with (10)
Times dealt 77-24 (not played because of player bust)=53
Expected busts = 53*0.2143= 11.35
Actual busts = 9
Except for the (5), which is within 12%, the dealer qualifies too much on all other hands.
Especially the the (6) and (7) is more than 50% too high.
All the numbers are in favour of the dealer here. Lets look at the players hands:
Player: Expected
A: 19 18
T: 86 72
9: 14 18
8: 16 18
7: 16 18
6: 17 18
5: 16 18
4: 24 18
3: 15 18
2: 13 18
Total 236
The numbers are fairly okay. The player received the TENS about 20% too much, and the (4) 35% too much.
With the above average number of TENS received the following numbers seems VERY strange:
Two-card count frequencies
BJ
Expected 236*0.048 = 11.32
Received 11 times
Hard standing (17-20)
Expected 236*0.3 = 70.8
Received 55 times
Even though the player received too many TENS, he should have had hard standing (17-20 on the first two cards) 22% more often than he did.
The player was expected to bust 32 times during the session, but actually busted 52 times.
This number is 62.5% too high.
I would be glad if someone could give me some input about this.
Was i unlucky, or deosn't this consist with a fair game.
Best regards
Thomas
I've read the rules, and i will not post the name of the internetcasino yet, as i wan't your input of the possibility of this happening.
On Saturday I played a BlackJack session on an internet-casino. I doubt that the result i got, consist with a fair game.
I played 236 hands, with an average stake of 280 Euro.
I played a perfect game, which means I draw, double and stand as I should to obtain the best possible result.
The expected loss with the rules at the casino is 0.50168%. This means I am expected to lose 280 *0.0050168 = 1.404704 euros per hand
Playing 236 hands I am expected to lose 331,51 euros. The actual loss was 8.500,00 euro.
First card distribution:
Dealer: Expected
A: 27 18
T: 77 72
9: 11 18
8: 15 18
7: 18 18
6: 12 18
5: 17 18
4: 21 18
3: 22 18
2: 16 18
The interesting part here is that the dealer got the best card, an ACE, 50% more often than expected.
On the same note the dealer was expected to get the worst card, a SIX, 50% more often than he actually did.
Out of the 236 hands played, the player busted 52 times, leaving a sample of 184 hands, where the dealer had to draw cards.
The dealer is expected to bust 31% of all hands.
Expected busts: 184*0.31= 57 times
Actual busts = 49
The dealer was expected to bust 14% more often than he actually did.
The probability of a dealer bust with first card dealt:
Total hands = 236-52(busted hands by player)=184 hands sample total.
Hands busted by dealer with (3)
Times dealt = 22
Expected busts = 22*0.3756 = 8.26
Actual busts = 8
Hands busted by dealer with (4)
Times dealt = 21
Expected busts = 21*0.4028 = 8.46
Actual busts = 7
Hands busted by dealer with (5)
Times dealt = 17
Expected busts = 17*0.4289 = 7,2
Actual busts = 8
Hands busted by dealer with (6)
Times dealt = 11 (12 including blackjack for player)
Expected busts = 11*0.4208 = 4.6
Actual busts =3
Hands busted by dealer with (7)
Times dealt = 18
Expected busts = 18*0.2599 = 4.68
Actual busts = 3
Hands busted by dealer with (8)
Times dealt = 15
Expected busts = 15*0.2386 = 3.58
Actual busts = 3
Hands busted by dealer with (10)
Times dealt 77-24 (not played because of player bust)=53
Expected busts = 53*0.2143= 11.35
Actual busts = 9
Except for the (5), which is within 12%, the dealer qualifies too much on all other hands.
Especially the the (6) and (7) is more than 50% too high.
All the numbers are in favour of the dealer here. Lets look at the players hands:
Player: Expected
A: 19 18
T: 86 72
9: 14 18
8: 16 18
7: 16 18
6: 17 18
5: 16 18
4: 24 18
3: 15 18
2: 13 18
Total 236
The numbers are fairly okay. The player received the TENS about 20% too much, and the (4) 35% too much.
With the above average number of TENS received the following numbers seems VERY strange:
Two-card count frequencies
BJ
Expected 236*0.048 = 11.32
Received 11 times
Hard standing (17-20)
Expected 236*0.3 = 70.8
Received 55 times
Even though the player received too many TENS, he should have had hard standing (17-20 on the first two cards) 22% more often than he did.
The player was expected to bust 32 times during the session, but actually busted 52 times.
This number is 62.5% too high.
I would be glad if someone could give me some input about this.
Was i unlucky, or deosn't this consist with a fair game.
Best regards
Thomas