In need of serious help, I think . . .

Phoenician

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 13, 2004
Location
Australia
cipher,

So far this month you have a 9% player win on blackjack over 2800 hands , you are a pretty good blackjack player :)

i havent gone through your logs but if you had a bad session with larger bets then there must have been some sensational sessions with smaller bets to have a 9% player advantage.

i guess my point is - it is not necissarily conclusive to suggest the games are rigged based on one bad session considering the good sessions you have had.

for the record we have no control over the games outcome at all and our house advantage with all the volume we do is well and truely in line with expectations this month compared to last month compared to YTD . also our play for fun mode plays exactly the same as the play for real mode however overall our house advantage is higher on player for fun i would assume because people do things they wouldnt normally do.

To balance out bad results players also have had some very nice winning swings.

We do however take issues over the integrity of our software very seriously and we have done some tests ourselves as well as having the advantage of being able to look a few million hands of blackjack each month which are conducted for real money.

We do forward enquiries through to RTG if there are any issues of this nature particularly when there have been software upgrades. we have a huge investment in this industry and if we thought our software supplier was doing the wrong thing then we wouldnt be there. i feel as though the games do and are playing fair based on all the information i have at my disposal. i also would find it difficult to think that any of the true 3rd party software suppliers would manipulate the results of the games due to the fact that they all have staff and any single disgruntled employee would have exposed these suppliers by now i would think. and similarly if the operators could manipulate the results then the 3rd party providor would be very exposed if an operator had a falling out and changed software suppliers.

i could probably find 10 examples of players winning 15 hands out of 20 and post them here but i dont think that either would be a good example of expectations either :)

cheers



Dean
 

summertime

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 3, 2004
Location
Virginia
Wow

Dear Dean,
Your reply gives me every reason to trust. Thank you for that. I'm headed to the site to try my luck now.
Thanks - summertime
 

lanidar

Dormant account
Joined
Sep 5, 2003
Location
Avenel, New Jersey
summertime said:
Dear Dean,
Your reply gives me every reason to trust. Thank you for that. I'm headed to the site to try my luck now.
Thanks - summertime

Summertime...
I think that you should listen to Cipher and look at the Cipher strands BEFORE you lose your money.
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Joined
May 15, 2002
Location
Visalia, California
Phoenician said:
cipher,

So far this month you have a 9% player win on blackjack over 2800 hands , you are a pretty good blackjack player :)

i havent gone through your logs but if you had a bad session with larger bets then there must have been some sensational sessions with smaller bets to have a 9% player advantage.

i guess my point is - it is not necissarily conclusive to suggest the games are rigged based on one bad session considering the good sessions you have had.

for the record we have no control over the games outcome at all and our house advantage with all the volume we do is well and truely in line with expectations this month compared to last month compared to YTD . also our play for fun mode plays exactly the same as the play for real mode however overall our house advantage is higher on player for fun i would assume because people do things they wouldnt normally do.

To balance out bad results players also have had some very nice winning swings.

We do however take issues over the integrity of our software very seriously and we have done some tests ourselves as well as having the advantage of being able to look a few million hands of blackjack each month which are conducted for real money.

We do forward enquiries through to RTG if there are any issues of this nature particularly when there have been software upgrades. we have a huge investment in this industry and if we thought our software supplier was doing the wrong thing then we wouldnt be there. i feel as though the games do and are playing fair based on all the information i have at my disposal. i also would find it difficult to think that any of the true 3rd party software suppliers would manipulate the results of the games due to the fact that they all have staff and any single disgruntled employee would have exposed these suppliers by now i would think. and similarly if the operators could manipulate the results then the 3rd party providor would be very exposed if an operator had a falling out and changed software suppliers.

i could probably find 10 examples of players winning 15 hands out of 20 and post them here but i dont think that either would be a good example of expectations either :)

cheers



Dean

Good to hear from you in regards to the questions I've raised. For the record if there is anything of an untoward nature going on with the RTG software I'm confident it is not happening at the backend of the casinos.

As you know Dean I pride myself on being good at what I do and you are right 4 losing sessions out of 48 sessions is pretty good. I am however really concerned with the data that I posted yesterday and I invite you to take a look at all of the HTML files that I've sent to you today (covering the last 12 days of play) and I'll guarantee you that you'll not find any of those sessions bearing even slightest resemblance to yesterdays data.

Lastly that session yesterday was purposely played at higher wager limits than I normally play so as to assess the software incident to higher levels.
Absolutely nothing changed with regards the strategy and you can check stats until the cows come home and you'll find that I do not deviate from my strategy. Yet the results came in at 1 out of 5 losses on higher wagers and that sends my radar through the roof no matter how many sessions I've won or lost.

You're a class act Dean and I'm hopeful that there's an explanation for this because its' not making any sense. Thanks again for your comments and have a good one.
 
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cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Joined
May 15, 2002
Location
Visalia, California
summertime said:
Dear Dean,
Your reply gives me every reason to trust. Thank you for that. I'm headed to the site to try my luck now.
Thanks - summertime

Don't get me wrong Abby. Dean has earned the trust that I have in him and there is no way in hell that I'd play 48 sessions of Blackjack if I didn't trust the people behind it. I trust Dean implicitedly and I'm hopeful that the data I posted yesterday was an aberration and certainly not a harbinger as to what we can expect from the RTG software platform.

Lastly, wherever you choose to play I would certainly suggest you keep your wagers low and do not deviate from a well thought out strategy. Have a good one.
 

Jstyal

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Location
Hollywood
About Phoenician

Hello guys,

I'm new here but have read several threads already--great info. My background is in poker, but blackjack interests me a great deal as it not only gives me a well deserved break from poker, but it can pay very well!

Anyway, first, a disclaimer on what I'm about to say. I neither have logs nor any sort of factual evidence other than my own experience--my own empirical, subjective evidence. Out of all the RTG casinos that I have played BJ in, Phoenician consistently kicks my bankroll to the gutter whenever I bet big, even when these big bets are consecutive. Again, I'm not here playing prosecutor in an attempt to demean this casino; I'm just sharing my own experiences. Phoenician casino is not on my playlist for BJ games.
 

phynqster

Experienced Member
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Location
los angeles, ca
Long time reader, brand new poster. I know this was not enough hands to tell anything, but I would like to know from some experienced players, what you do when this is the run you are on. Cipher this was at Phonecian yesterday also like yours. One thing Kudos to Phonecian for supplying the logs.
I played 46 hands before I threw up. Dealer had 12bj, 2-21,10-20,7-19,3-18,5-17,2 busts. They won 25, lost 11, and pushed 10. What was so frustrating besides all of their black jacks, was I only busted 5 times, and still had this session. Also the dealer three times had back to back blackjacks.
So do you rebuy and hope it changes, walkaway, or change betting amounts.
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 2, 2004
Location
Englewood, FL USA
Yet the results came in at 1 out of 5 losses on higher wagers and that sends my radar through the roof no matter how many sessions I've won or lost. .[/QUOTE said:
Cipher;

What is your w/l record on higher bets? I don't understand "1 out 0f 5" I know it can't be 80/20 or else you would be very happy! (Oh and what do you consider a higher bet?)
Cheers!
DeMango
 
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DeMango

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 2, 2004
Location
Englewood, FL USA
To Summertime;

One thing I have done for BJ is cut and pasted all the relevant tables that TheWizardofOdds has on his site for various softwares and game variants. I used Word, pasted about six tables per printed page, then took sissors and cut them individually and taped them next to my screen before I played. The end result is a table about 2 1/2" wide (6cm) by 5 1/2" tall (14cm). Works wonderful for perfect Basic Strategy for whatever game you play!

DeMango
 

bewitch

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 20, 2003
Location
Home, sweet home
Cipher is a very nice and well respected gentleman here. He has great experience and develop a special software on BJ games. A lot of players ask his opinions on BJ. Do a search and you will see his posts!

Have a nice day!
 

caruso

Banned User - repetitive violations of 1.6 - troll
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Location
England
You can't accuse software of unfair play based on a sample of five hands, unless those five hands lost to five dealer blackjacks (Three million to one). FTR, I recently played a grand total of 32 units between $300 and $500 per hand and the Phonecian group, ending up ahead eight units. Does this mean it's rigged in my favour? Eight units out of about 28 hands is marginally over one SD.

****You cannot change the odds by varying your bets.****

And, FTR, RTG BJ is one of the WORST BJ games out there. Fortunately, they offer other table games which are very good. But the BJ is rotten.

I find myself on the opposite side of the fence to Cipher here: I dislike the Phonecian business ethics but I find the games fine.
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Joined
May 15, 2002
Location
Visalia, California
DeMango said:
Yet the results came in at 1 out of 5 losses on higher wagers and that sends my radar through the roof no matter how many sessions I've won or lost. .[/QUOTE said:
Cipher;

What is your w/l record on higher bets? I don't understand "1 out 0f 5" I know it can't be 80/20 or else you would be very happy! (Oh and what do you consider a higher bet?)
Cheers!
DeMango

Hi DeMango

On wagers in excess of $100.00 my win loss ratio was actually 2wins and 6 losses (30%).
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Joined
May 15, 2002
Location
Visalia, California
phynqster said:
Long time reader, brand new poster. I know this was not enough hands to tell anything, but I would like to know from some experienced players, what you do when this is the run you are on. Cipher this was at Phonecian yesterday also like yours. One thing Kudos to Phonecian for supplying the logs.
I played 46 hands before I threw up. Dealer had 12bj, 2-21,10-20,7-19,3-18,5-17,2 busts. They won 25, lost 11, and pushed 10. What was so frustrating besides all of their black jacks, was I only busted 5 times, and still had this session. Also the dealer three times had back to back blackjacks.
So do you rebuy and hope it changes, walkaway, or change betting amounts.

A couple of questions;

1) What size wagers were you playing in this session.?

2) Where you employing a basic strategy?

Lastly, no generally I do not re-buy in a session. But in this particular instance I had decided to test the system, when in the early going the win/loss ratio was quite good including a double down for $218.00 at line 14.
 

summertime

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 3, 2004
Location
Virginia
The meat of the matter

Dear All,
I feel like we're getting to the specifics that could really help new folks (and old). DeMango has given newbies an action that can do nothing but help. is any of the veterans will kindly answer Phynqster's questions, that would be a gift. For example, Cipher tells me not to deviate from a well thought out strategy: that's what we need the most help with; what are some betting strategies (besides Martingale and another famous one I can't remember the name of.) I'm hoping that if a few people share, others can refine, ask questions, give ideas and we might all benefit. I would jump for joy if we could disuss in this direction and lord knows, if we win, we'll give credit liberally. I'll kick it off by telling you my asinine strategy: I start with $50 or $80. My first bet is $2.00. If I win, I'm scared to lose it right away, so I next bet $1.00. If I win, I'm thrilled that I'm up $3.00 but figure I'll definitely lose that third time, so I continue to bet $1.00. Usually, I decide I'm getting a "feel" for the session and that the software will let me win two or three in a row, so I bet big ($10-25) after a win. If I win, I go back to $1.00 bets for a long time because it seems like the dealer is going to get me 5X in a row at least. It seems like every time I split, I lose. When I don't buy insurance, I lose. When i hit on 16 I lose. (This is all on CON). But, I keep playing those basic rules like a champ until I lose it all. :) So, I've bared my innocence, my stupidity -- anyone care to join me? BTW, thanks to the other newbies who are asking the questions along with me; and, as usual, hats off to each of you who keep answering.

Gratefully,
Abby
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 2, 2004
Location
Englewood, FL USA
Greetings Abby;

Since you asked there are many thoughts out there, many systems. I see you have the system down known as the WAG system. Wild A** Guess. It never works! Flat betting works great for the Bo Ho's out there as they march on, wagering X amount to get a bonus then bail out. The Casinos have taken countermeasures and that strategy is wearing out it's usefulness. In the middle are the progressionists, positive and negative. The famous one that gets invented in someones mind every few days is indeed the Martingale which should never be attempted for long term survival. It is an extreme negative progression but there are milder ones out there. La Bouchere and D'Alembert are the other famous ones and Fibonacci which is almost as extreme as Martingale. Positive progressions also abound where one increases the size of one's bet after a win and back to base bet after a loss. Someone won $1.3 million recently probably using a positive progression and there is now the famous hood system3000 !!! For a slow and steady progression look up (google) Oscar's Grind which seems to be an apparant long term winner. The math boys will speak of the expected value of one event and they will be correct. But the expected value of a series of events??? That is where we all part ways. So have fun and do the research!
 

sw2003

Dormant account
Joined
Apr 25, 2004
Location
somewhere :)
DeMango said:
Greetings Abby;

For a slow and steady progression look up (google) Oscar's Grind which seems to be an apparant long term winner. The math boys will speak of the expected value of one event and they will be correct. But the expected value of a series of events??? That is where we all part ways. So have fun and do the research!

Let's suppose someone played 5000 hands of blackjack, you can see that as one event but you can equally see it as say 5 events of 1000 hands each. So I don't see any big difference between one event and a series of events. You can choose to see a glass as half empty or half full, it is still one and the same thing. No research is required on this one!
 

Vesuvio

Dormant account
Joined
Apr 22, 2004
Location
UK
I did my google research :D

This is a good sensible account of the progressive systems:
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Something like Oscar's grind sounds reasonable if you want to have a fair chance of winning in the short term, but of course it just trades small wins for one huge loss.

If you want to make money (rather than just having fun), don't gamble on games with a house edge ;)
 

Vesuvio

Dormant account
Joined
Apr 22, 2004
Location
UK
Final quote for the day...

"All of the systems described above have many variations, but they all purport to give a person the edge in a negative expectation game. The fact is, they don't. No amount of tweaks, twists or twiddling is going to make them winning systems. Any system that relies on a betting progression to beat a negative expectation game just means, in reality, that you are putting more money on the table than you would flat-betting and, thus, losing more. If, as in many blackjack games, a basic strategy player can expect the house to have a half a percent advantage, the fact is, he is losing one half percent of each bet he makes. The more he bets, the more he loses. I know. I have bet each one of these systems at one time or another, and I've never won a dime in the long run. Sort of led me into card counting. I got tired of losing."
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 2, 2004
Location
Englewood, FL USA
sw2003 said:
. No research is required on this one!

My Friend;
Indeed I have done research, and I will give you one example. I wrote a program to test the positive progression espoused in "Twenty-first Century Blackjack" by Walter Thomason. His theory just like Bethug's was to improve on flat betting. I set the program to return an ev of -.50. After millions of hands the program lost money at a rate of -.30! When I reset the program to play an even game (such as old Vegas one deck) the program returned money at the rate of +.20 !! I went no farther because the return did not excite me. I also have no mathematical explanation. But I have to agree with the author that indeed his system indeed produces better results than flat betting!
Cheers!
 

Vesuvio

Dormant account
Joined
Apr 22, 2004
Location
UK
Well, there's a cool $20 000 waiting for you if you can repeat the miracle for the Wizardofodds :eek2:

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Let us know how it goes! :notworthy
 

summertime

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 3, 2004
Location
Virginia
Sadder but Wiser, I think. ..

Hi all,
I've printed and read all suggested articles. My conclusions?
Playing BJ, especially with a deck shuffled after each round, is not much different from playing a slot machine or a number on a roulette table. You may win big, on a fluke, but most of the time, you will lose. So, I should play for the enjoyment of playing and hope against all odds that one day, I'll be the fluke.

I do have a question: if all betting systems fail, then why is the WAG system worse? (I actually mean this as a serious question, okay?)

It also sounds like serious, profit-driven BJ players, spend a lot of time working around casino catches, must have a mathmetical mind and more importantly, work the number of hours that a day job would require; it doesn't sound like much fun.

Only poker, when one is playing against other humans does one have a good chance of winning, I guess? (and still, I'm minus the mathmetical ability).

Thanks and thanks and thanks and thanks,
Summertime
 

bethug

Dormant Account
Joined
Apr 20, 2003
the wiz cant bet me. No flat bettor can on a regurlar basic. You can pull out all that math all them books, but i have proven my system works.

First you set limits, you dont chase losses and you dont flat bet. and you dont sit there with 100 bucks and lose 4 times and keep going for the 5 and 8 with out starting over.

I have turn 1000 into 5000 so many time it not funny. I do lose and that when i dont stick to my system and try and bet crazy.

I will go head to head with any flat bettor, cause i know i will win

I seen the wiz on tv and he cant even play, he will never out play me.

the wiz gets paid by software makers, they for sure not going to tell you how to bet the casino.
 

jpm

Paleo Meister (means really, really old)
Joined
Mar 29, 2002
You should claim that $20K prize the wiz is offering Bethug.

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(scroll down near the bottom for the challenge)...
From the wiz:

Despite all the evidence I have supplied I continue to get challenges via e-mail from people who believe their individual systems are the exception to the rule and really work. These challenges usually come with a request that I waste my time writing a free simulation program to prove or disprove the author's system. Contrary to what some may think, I do not sit around all day with nothing to do but test betting systems. So in an effort to give the true believer a fair chance to prove me wrong, I will bet your $2,000 against my $20,000 that your system won't win a negative expectation game over a billion trials.
 
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