- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Location
- So Cal...Antelope Valley
well my friend got shot and told me it wasn't bad so i tried it and shot myself to see how bad it really was
How Many Online Casinos Cheat?
- Thread starter ThodorisK
- Start date
Dude, consider the $ volume at most casinos, now take 5% of that. wtf? that's enough money. They don't need to cheat.
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2007
- Location
- Europe
I think that's exactly why they might need to cheat (or, speaking precisely, why any software may be rigged without the casino knowing - it is in the interest of the software provider to have prosperous casinos in the first place) - to get these 5 %.
I think the casinos cannot do anything about the 1-5% profit they report in their payout reports. But I think it may be possible that the software is not fair at all times to ensure the margin.
It seems suspicious to me that I always see the same statistics like 96% - 99.5%. Once or twice I remember seeing a 101% payout, which, of course, only applies to a one-month period, unless I am mistaken.
Some might say the statistically prevailing house edge accounts for the steady 96%-99% payout but I wonder why high rollers nearly never seem to sway this payout percentage above 100%.
In any case, my philosophy is that if software providers cheat, as long as the player is not a high roller, it is as much a random event of the software cheating him as it is a random event of a player getting some unfavourable outcomes in fair games.
In other words, I think that it might be possible that as long as lot of people lose their money and the software does not detect any danger of the payout increasing above a desired level, it may provide fair games; once the risk of loss to the casino starts to impend, I think it may be possible that the software makes sure the payout does not exceed 101% or something like that and makes sure that next month it is again 96%-99%.
This is, of course, just a speculation but I think it may easily be so - because there is also no great conspiracy involved and some of the software developers who might know this might be able to live well with it because it is no big fraud - just a little safeguard to make sure no casinos, which are customers of the software providers, go out of business because of some luck on the players' side. And the software developers might think that after all, this safeguard does not actually alter the long-term statistical result so it is actually nearly no fraud at all... Ha, ha, I think I can imagine how twisted one's way of thinking may get and how one can find excuses for all kinds of things.
As I said it is just a speculation but I think it makes sense and for my part, I can say I would be surprised if there were not some kind of safeguard like this and if the games were REALLY absolutely fair.
- Joined
- Jun 11, 2006
- Location
- Planet Earth
To see payout audits of above 100%, you need to look at really small casinos that don't get a lot of wagers. The most variation I have ever seen in MG payout audits was at the casino Old Samurai. It closed recently, likely because of making little profit. I recall seeing a payout earlier this year of 170% for slots and ~60% percent on table games. The overall payout was over 100%. On the other end of the spectrum, if you look at the biggest MGs, their payout audits rarely deviate much from expected. I believe the main reason for the difference is simply the number of bets. Millions of moderate-sized bets average out a few really high rollers.
One exception to this generalization is Grand Virtual. They are small, yet their payout audits are quite consistent. For example, the audits show a slot payout of 95.3 +/- 0.5% in every quarter since 2004. I suspect two reasons:
1. All Grand Virtual casinos are grouped together for the purpose of the audit. So the payout data includes all play at grand virtual casinos over a 3-month period.
2. Grand Virtual slots have a more consistent house edge and/or lower variance than other SWs. I haven't played Grand Virtual slots enough to know if this is the case or not.
One exception to this generalization is Grand Virtual. They are small, yet their payout audits are quite consistent. For example, the audits show a slot payout of 95.3 +/- 0.5% in every quarter since 2004. I suspect two reasons:
1. All Grand Virtual casinos are grouped together for the purpose of the audit. So the payout data includes all play at grand virtual casinos over a 3-month period.
2. Grand Virtual slots have a more consistent house edge and/or lower variance than other SWs. I haven't played Grand Virtual slots enough to know if this is the case or not.
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- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
For my arguments to be "taken seriously", I have to present stats in a casino which imply cheating with a more than 95% confidence?!!! I will repeat myself: Most of the casinos, if they want to hide their cheating, do not want to cheat that much so that the stats of a player would imply cheating with a more than 95% statistical confidence.
And since they only cheat 2 out of 100 hands (when one flatbets small), the 5000 bets max of a bonus wagering is not enough to give such a high statistical confidence that this 2 out of 100 is such far away from the statistical average. And they only have reasons to cheat when a bonus is involved (or when one is winning enough).
And since they only cheat 2 out of 100 hands (when one flatbets small), the 5000 bets max of a bonus wagering is not enough to give such a high statistical confidence that this 2 out of 100 is such far away from the statistical average. And they only have reasons to cheat when a bonus is involved (or when one is winning enough).
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2006
- Location
- canada
how do you identify "a cheating hand"? and if you know they cheat 2% of the hands, just factor that in when you solve for the expected loss. only play bonuses where you still make money when they cheat their 2% of the time. or do they cheat more if the bonus is still profitable?
Dude if they are rigged, they are rigged.
Don't play.
If 5% is an okay risk for you, over time, play.
Otherwise, wtf? I'm down. Show me how they fex you.
I tend to think that your inquiry was a poorly shrouded attempt to divine the programs that communicate with so called RNG.
What is your motive? I don't buy it so far.
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2004
- Location
- Bexhill on sea, England
Not aimed particularly at you Janek, but at all players doubting fairness;
Can anyone anywhere provide a system to guarantee beating the wheel in the long term?
No.
Why not?
Because it has a house edge of 2.02727% - no matter what you do.
Suppose some guy walked into a casino & stuck $1000 on 32-Red
, it came up, he took his $36,000 and walked out.
Would the roulette wheel then have to cheat to get it's money back to ensure it's long term profit?
Of course not!
Over time other players will suffer big losses and in the long run the roulette wheel will make (near enough) exactly 2.027% profit - not more, not less.
The same can be applied to all casino games - they are all guaranteed to make their income due to the defined house edge, not because they cheat.
In casinos there will always be people who lose more often than not, and those who more frequently win. This is not down to 'rigging', it's due to the individuals good or bad luck, playing style & self control. The times I've been to a B&M and seen idiots playing blackjack without the first clue of basic strategy..
I'm not saying that no casinos cheat (that would be very naive), but I am saying they don't need to cheat to guarantee their income.
Personally I am happy that the reputable ones (like those endorsed by CM) do not cheat.
Just my 2.027c
Take this example - a single-zero Roulette wheel;
Can anyone anywhere provide a system to guarantee beating the wheel in the long term?
No.
Why not?
Because it has a house edge of 2.02727% - no matter what you do.
Suppose some guy walked into a casino & stuck $1000 on 32-Red
, it came up, he took his $36,000 and walked out.Would the roulette wheel then have to cheat to get it's money back to ensure it's long term profit?
Of course not!
Over time other players will suffer big losses and in the long run the roulette wheel will make (near enough) exactly 2.027% profit - not more, not less.
The same can be applied to all casino games - they are all guaranteed to make their income due to the defined house edge, not because they cheat.
In casinos there will always be people who lose more often than not, and those who more frequently win. This is not down to 'rigging', it's due to the individuals good or bad luck, playing style & self control. The times I've been to a B&M and seen idiots playing blackjack without the first clue of basic strategy..
I'm not saying that no casinos cheat (that would be very naive), but I am saying they don't need to cheat to guarantee their income.
Personally I am happy that the reputable ones (like those endorsed by CM) do not cheat.
Just my 2.027c
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2007
- Location
- Europe
Thank you for your response, KasinoKing.
Ha, ha, this could be a never ending discussion since it is all pure speculation.
And I think you cannot have any way of knowing that "reputable ones (like those endorsed by CM) do not cheat" - it is a speculation, too, IMO.
Also, I do not think that casinos would ever cheat (except with the software described at Wizzard of Odds, by a marginal software provider) - too many people would be involved and the word would soon spread out, etc. and they would be guaranteed to go out of business; I think it might be the software developers.
And, of course, I know that IN THE LONG the profit for the casinos is guaranteed. I am not that dumb.
And just a last point for consideration: I accept that the 96-99% payout reports may be a result of the inevitable long-term statistics but it also seems suspicious to me that the casinos never have anything like 90% or 85% payout. I think a lot of players simply bust their bankrolls and leave much more to the casinos than just the house edge. I think there are not many players who deposit, say, 1000 USD and then play for a few hours and leave the casino with 960 USD in their account.
It is obvious, I think, that a 85% payout report would discourage players.
So, conversely, I think it might be possible that the software can be rigged to GIVE some UNFAIR WINS
to players to ensure the statistical payout for most of the months in order not to discourage players.
And that would make sense, too, IMO, because as someone else said and as you said and as we all know the profit of the casinos is GUARANTEED IN THE LONG-TERM so they can easily satisfy with a few percent every month - it still must be a nice profit; they do not need to take 10 or 15 percent - that would be counter-productive.
But we will never know for sure...
But I think it is always good to be on guard and if a particular software seems suspicious, it is reasonable to admit the possibility it might be rigged in some more or less subtle way and to stop playing with this software.
And to end on a "positive" note, my experience is that MG software is OK so now I stick to MG casinos.
Ha, ha, this could be a never ending discussion since it is all pure speculation.
And I think you cannot have any way of knowing that "reputable ones (like those endorsed by CM) do not cheat" - it is a speculation, too, IMO.
Also, I do not think that casinos would ever cheat (except with the software described at Wizzard of Odds, by a marginal software provider) - too many people would be involved and the word would soon spread out, etc. and they would be guaranteed to go out of business; I think it might be the software developers.
And, of course, I know that IN THE LONG the profit for the casinos is guaranteed. I am not that dumb.
And just a last point for consideration: I accept that the 96-99% payout reports may be a result of the inevitable long-term statistics but it also seems suspicious to me that the casinos never have anything like 90% or 85% payout. I think a lot of players simply bust their bankrolls and leave much more to the casinos than just the house edge. I think there are not many players who deposit, say, 1000 USD and then play for a few hours and leave the casino with 960 USD in their account.
It is obvious, I think, that a 85% payout report would discourage players.
So, conversely, I think it might be possible that the software can be rigged to GIVE some UNFAIR WINS
to players to ensure the statistical payout for most of the months in order not to discourage players. And that would make sense, too, IMO, because as someone else said and as you said and as we all know the profit of the casinos is GUARANTEED IN THE LONG-TERM so they can easily satisfy with a few percent every month - it still must be a nice profit; they do not need to take 10 or 15 percent - that would be counter-productive.
But we will never know for sure...
But I think it is always good to be on guard and if a particular software seems suspicious, it is reasonable to admit the possibility it might be rigged in some more or less subtle way and to stop playing with this software.
And to end on a "positive" note, my experience is that MG software is OK so now I stick to MG casinos.
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my eyes r tired,,,,,,,,help,who r we honoring??
FDNY or a cop who died trying to save him
Thanks, nice gesture on your part,Kudos............back to cheating casinos,sorry for derail.
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2007
- Location
- Europe
One more comment - in favour of MG
And one more comment: Someone wrote here at Casinomeister that some MG casinos (Fortune Lounge I think) confiscated some winnings; and most recently there was a player with the nick andjohan complaining about a Casino Rewards casino, which confiscated his winnings after he had made a profit using their bonus - that might, IMO, indicate that MG software IS PROBABLY FAIR and that some casinos panic when not making enough profit and since the software is fair and therefore sometimes the luck favours the players, they resort to such dirty tactics as to confiscate winnings and to violate their own T and C, as seems to be the case of andjohan.
But for example I had very good experience with the Casino Rewards group; each of their casinos gave me a bonus, although they are in the same group, and after busting several bankrolls (fortunately largely made from money won in their Free Play promotion) I finally won 300 USD in Casino Kingdom and they paid me promptly without any hassle whatsoever; but I must also say that I heeded the advice of KasinoKing :notworthy and did not cash in immediately after meeting the WR, etc., I am really thankful for all the advice KasinoKing provides on his website.
And one more comment: Someone wrote here at Casinomeister that some MG casinos (Fortune Lounge I think) confiscated some winnings; and most recently there was a player with the nick andjohan complaining about a Casino Rewards casino, which confiscated his winnings after he had made a profit using their bonus - that might, IMO, indicate that MG software IS PROBABLY FAIR and that some casinos panic when not making enough profit and since the software is fair and therefore sometimes the luck favours the players, they resort to such dirty tactics as to confiscate winnings and to violate their own T and C, as seems to be the case of andjohan.
But for example I had very good experience with the Casino Rewards group; each of their casinos gave me a bonus, although they are in the same group, and after busting several bankrolls (fortunately largely made from money won in their Free Play promotion) I finally won 300 USD in Casino Kingdom and they paid me promptly without any hassle whatsoever; but I must also say that I heeded the advice of KasinoKing :notworthy and did not cash in immediately after meeting the WR, etc., I am really thankful for all the advice KasinoKing provides on his website.
- Joined
- Oct 6, 2006
- Location
- Spain
Reckon he's from a casino?! LOL
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2007
- Location
- Europe
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2006
- Location
- canada
how come this thread title is not in all caps anymore? did someone complain?
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2006
- Location
- Scotland
Just one question - does it hang below the bottom of your kilt?
KK
Avatar updated just for you, unfortunatley picture taken from the wrong angle to give conclusive proof one way or the other....
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2006
- Location
- Norway
how do you identify "a cheating hand"? and if you know they cheat 2% of the hands, just factor that in when you solve for the expected loss. only play bonuses where you still make money when they cheat their 2% of the time. or do they cheat more if the bonus is still profitable?
What about a cheating spin on a slot? It would be very easy to set the payout for the slots way to low, say 85-90% and then control when the high wins appear. When the payout is to low, hey.... You get a 400x win which makes you happy again.
The same teqnique can easily be applied to all other gaming types.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
CASINO CLUB (Boss Media)
I had very suspicious results in Global Player and Casino Club in the past at the single deck blackjack where the player has an edge of 0.1-0.15%.
So today I wanted to make sure if they cheat or not. So I deposited 50 euros and decided to play as long as it takes. Fortunatelly, it didnt take long and I finally know with certainty now: THEY DEFINATELLY CHEAT.
In 479 hands flatbetting 1 euro, I lost 48.5 euros.
The risk of ruin probability for these values (according to the calculator:
is 4.8%.
But not only that: With a starting bankroll of 50 euros, during these 479 hands, the highest point my bankroll reached, was only 51 euros! So, what happened had much less than 4.8% to happen.
This is the most pleasant 50 euros I have ever lost. The certainty-knowledge it gave me will save me and others much more money.
And not only that, but taking also in account my previous results at Casino Club and Global Player and Pharaoh's casino at single deck blackjack (which again this 5% happened and my sample was more than 10,000 hands), and considering my results at the other casinos, I can finally be more than 99% certain: THEY CHEAT.
WAKE UP. ALL ONLINE CASINOS CHEAT
or as they like to call it: "they adjust the payoff", something which I think is supposed to be applied only regarding slots.
It's a miracle I made profits from the sign up bonuses. But I ended up far below the expected value in most casinos. But there is also another very probable explanation: Bonus hunters, beware of the monthly bonuses: The software remembers how much you have won in the past (that's exactly what an "adjusted payoff" means), and they are waiting for you to come back for a monthly reload.
Actually, if they cheated a little less, it would be hard even for me not to doubt if they cheat or not. That's what they would do if they were more clever, as in this way, they would leave no statistical evidence for their cheating. But fortunatelly, their greed exposed them.
I had very suspicious results in Global Player and Casino Club in the past at the single deck blackjack where the player has an edge of 0.1-0.15%.
So today I wanted to make sure if they cheat or not. So I deposited 50 euros and decided to play as long as it takes. Fortunatelly, it didnt take long and I finally know with certainty now: THEY DEFINATELLY CHEAT.
In 479 hands flatbetting 1 euro, I lost 48.5 euros.
The risk of ruin probability for these values (according to the calculator:
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)is 4.8%.
But not only that: With a starting bankroll of 50 euros, during these 479 hands, the highest point my bankroll reached, was only 51 euros! So, what happened had much less than 4.8% to happen.
This is the most pleasant 50 euros I have ever lost. The certainty-knowledge it gave me will save me and others much more money.
And not only that, but taking also in account my previous results at Casino Club and Global Player and Pharaoh's casino at single deck blackjack (which again this 5% happened and my sample was more than 10,000 hands), and considering my results at the other casinos, I can finally be more than 99% certain: THEY CHEAT.
WAKE UP. ALL ONLINE CASINOS CHEAT
or as they like to call it: "they adjust the payoff", something which I think is supposed to be applied only regarding slots.
It's a miracle I made profits from the sign up bonuses. But I ended up far below the expected value in most casinos. But there is also another very probable explanation: Bonus hunters, beware of the monthly bonuses: The software remembers how much you have won in the past (that's exactly what an "adjusted payoff" means), and they are waiting for you to come back for a monthly reload.
Actually, if they cheated a little less, it would be hard even for me not to doubt if they cheat or not. That's what they would do if they were more clever, as in this way, they would leave no statistical evidence for their cheating. But fortunatelly, their greed exposed them.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
I used the basic strategy specified for boss media single deck blackjack, and I did not violate it not even once during those 479 hands.
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2007
- Location
- UK
I've done a simulation in Java on this. Single deck BM rules, +ve EV.
Over a billion hands, you will be roughly 1k up, but over the course you may well go down to -2k or so.
It is called variation, and is to be expected. Unfortunately it seems you got on the wrong side of this, aka bad luck, but your results are not indicative of cheating software.
I also played here with pleasant expectations, and ended up losing 100EUR or so. I made it all back plus a bit more, but only by increasing my bet size and playing a bit riskier.
It was after this that I completed my simulation, and realised that a +ve EV might not be quite as good as it sounds - you could still end up -3k or so, and it takes so long to make any money flatbetting 1 or 2 that you might as well just go out and pick up pennies!
I KNOW some places cheat, this has been proven, but I don't think reputable casinos with reputable software do. The worst that may happen is that they worsen your odds on huge bets, but I even doubt this highly.
You were just unlucky. It's called GAMBLING !!!
Over a billion hands, you will be roughly 1k up, but over the course you may well go down to -2k or so.
It is called variation, and is to be expected. Unfortunately it seems you got on the wrong side of this, aka bad luck, but your results are not indicative of cheating software.
I also played here with pleasant expectations, and ended up losing 100EUR or so. I made it all back plus a bit more, but only by increasing my bet size and playing a bit riskier.
It was after this that I completed my simulation, and realised that a +ve EV might not be quite as good as it sounds - you could still end up -3k or so, and it takes so long to make any money flatbetting 1 or 2 that you might as well just go out and pick up pennies!
I KNOW some places cheat, this has been proven, but I don't think reputable casinos with reputable software do. The worst that may happen is that they worsen your odds on huge bets, but I even doubt this highly.
You were just unlucky. It's called GAMBLING !!!
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2006
- Location
- Norway
I have already quit online gambling but couldn't help noticing this. I myself have pretty much confirmed this aswell in MG software during my 250.000+ spins excersice. It seems you can force the jackpot whenever you want it to come by loosing big in the previous game. Keep pulling those stats and do your own research based on factual wagering - not what you think or what you believe. It's so much nicer talking to people whi accually did the checking, and didn't just base their conclusion on a calculator (which works correctly without any fuzzy logig here and there).
And for thos that dissagree, I challanged you earlier - and I do it again - check out for youself. You will not only be stunned, you will get healed from online gambling aswell,
So it's a very nice payoff in the end!Happy wagering people - long live the landbased casino's!
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2007
- Location
- UK
Ok that is an interesting point.
I busted out the last 5 times at 32red/betdirect, and that was after winning in previous months.
Chances of this are about 0.01%.
Also I hit a royal somewhere, then the texas hold em bonus in the same place loses me 400 in 1k wagered, and that is staggering.
I busted out the last 5 times at 32red/betdirect, and that was after winning in previous months.
Chances of this are about 0.01%.
Also I hit a royal somewhere, then the texas hold em bonus in the same place loses me 400 in 1k wagered, and that is staggering.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
It is absolutelly wrong to distinguish between bad luck and statistical evidence for cheating. Statistical evidence IS bad luck. A bad luck which had 25% to happen is the same type of statistical evidence for cheating as a bad luck which had 1 in a trillion to happen. The only difference is the degree.
But there are also some considerations which amplify the cheating probability. Let me remind you some:
A cheating of 1-2 hands out of 100, needs hundreds of thousands of hands for this degree of statistical certainty to be above 99%. And even then, the supporters of online casinos will counterargue that this has only happened to you, and to the 1% of the players. And they will also counterargue that since you gamble a lot in other casinos, this was highly probable to happen in one casino.
Therefore, since it is impossible to statistically indicate with a high degree of certainty such a small cheating (which is more than enough to make certain the profits and cover bonus expenses), why wouldnt the casinos cheat? Because we have to trust what these "independent accountants" and "regulatory bodies" such as e-cogra, say? Why? Because we have to be idiots? People get bribed with a high risk of going to jail. These people have not even the risk of jail to fear.
I know its hard to admit that we were idiots that we trusted them. But mistakes give knowledge. Besides, it was not entirely stupidity. In some games like poker and single deck blackjack, you can have an edge. And if you have an edge and bet small, you have a small probability of losing your bankroll and a high probability of never losing your bankroll and keep winning money to infinity. Besides this, every human has a degree of intuition, and if this is just 51% successfull in its predictions, it can exceed the 0.5% edge of blackjack and thus have an edge. So yes, even roulette can be beaten (Now how I am 100% certain of the power of intuition, is another story). But I call gamblers idiots because they think that the probability of doubling their bankroll in roulette by betting small (with a 50% successfull intuition, which is also the condition of the presupposition that intuition is bullshit) is about 45% whereas it is not even 1%, and they never cared to find the probability formula for gambler's ruin. So why we were not entirely stupid that we trusted online casinos? Because even if the probability that an online casino does not cheat is only 10%, then you have an almost 10% probability of keep winning money to infinity when you have an edge. So, yes, I was an idiot when I almost eliminated the probability that casinos cheat at online poker, as I thought that they had no interest of doing so, as the 5% rake is huge comparing with the house edge landbased casinos have in roulette. But after extreme bad luck I realised that they have an interest to cheat:Since it is possible for good players to have an edge even after the 5% is taken from them, then these players would take a considerable percentage of the deposited money, and only the rest would go to the rake. So if the casino cheats these players, then the casino will keep the 100% of the deposited money. I think when online poker first came in, there was no cheating. But after the good players were taking a lot of the deposited money, the casinos thought: No way!
We have to take action.
The only reasonable argument that online casinos do not cheat is that PERHAPS SOME casinos might have decided not to use cheating software, because they were scared of even the small probability of this to be found out sometime, and they want to stay in business for many years, like banks. But which casinos have decided as such? If (at casino: Willhill, Skybetvegas) and (at poker: Willhill, Sportingbet, 888.com Ladbrokes and Grosvernor) cheat, who is left? I forced myself to stop playing there, so you can imagine the "bad luck" I met there.
I dont want online gambling to collapse. But until they change their cheating practices, I will be warning players as often as I can or decide so. But they have to proove to us they dont cheat. And this is not an easy task. They have to communicate between them and organize MANY independent controlling bodies and fight for their legalisation. It is their right since landbased casinos are legal. Perhaps they dont need to proove anything and their profits keep increasing instead of starting decreasing. Is that so? Are their profits keep increasing? Does anybody know? I noticed Willhill is giving all poker players a 500$ bonus. Doesn't that mean that their profits decreased? If so aren't the rumors that online poker is rigged responsible?
But there are also some considerations which amplify the cheating probability. Let me remind you some:
A cheating of 1-2 hands out of 100, needs hundreds of thousands of hands for this degree of statistical certainty to be above 99%. And even then, the supporters of online casinos will counterargue that this has only happened to you, and to the 1% of the players. And they will also counterargue that since you gamble a lot in other casinos, this was highly probable to happen in one casino.
Therefore, since it is impossible to statistically indicate with a high degree of certainty such a small cheating (which is more than enough to make certain the profits and cover bonus expenses), why wouldnt the casinos cheat? Because we have to trust what these "independent accountants" and "regulatory bodies" such as e-cogra, say? Why? Because we have to be idiots? People get bribed with a high risk of going to jail. These people have not even the risk of jail to fear.
I know its hard to admit that we were idiots that we trusted them. But mistakes give knowledge. Besides, it was not entirely stupidity. In some games like poker and single deck blackjack, you can have an edge. And if you have an edge and bet small, you have a small probability of losing your bankroll and a high probability of never losing your bankroll and keep winning money to infinity. Besides this, every human has a degree of intuition, and if this is just 51% successfull in its predictions, it can exceed the 0.5% edge of blackjack and thus have an edge. So yes, even roulette can be beaten (Now how I am 100% certain of the power of intuition, is another story). But I call gamblers idiots because they think that the probability of doubling their bankroll in roulette by betting small (with a 50% successfull intuition, which is also the condition of the presupposition that intuition is bullshit) is about 45% whereas it is not even 1%, and they never cared to find the probability formula for gambler's ruin. So why we were not entirely stupid that we trusted online casinos? Because even if the probability that an online casino does not cheat is only 10%, then you have an almost 10% probability of keep winning money to infinity when you have an edge. So, yes, I was an idiot when I almost eliminated the probability that casinos cheat at online poker, as I thought that they had no interest of doing so, as the 5% rake is huge comparing with the house edge landbased casinos have in roulette. But after extreme bad luck I realised that they have an interest to cheat:Since it is possible for good players to have an edge even after the 5% is taken from them, then these players would take a considerable percentage of the deposited money, and only the rest would go to the rake. So if the casino cheats these players, then the casino will keep the 100% of the deposited money. I think when online poker first came in, there was no cheating. But after the good players were taking a lot of the deposited money, the casinos thought: No way!
We have to take action.The only reasonable argument that online casinos do not cheat is that PERHAPS SOME casinos might have decided not to use cheating software, because they were scared of even the small probability of this to be found out sometime, and they want to stay in business for many years, like banks. But which casinos have decided as such? If (at casino: Willhill, Skybetvegas) and (at poker: Willhill, Sportingbet, 888.com Ladbrokes and Grosvernor) cheat, who is left? I forced myself to stop playing there, so you can imagine the "bad luck" I met there.
I dont want online gambling to collapse. But until they change their cheating practices, I will be warning players as often as I can or decide so. But they have to proove to us they dont cheat. And this is not an easy task. They have to communicate between them and organize MANY independent controlling bodies and fight for their legalisation. It is their right since landbased casinos are legal. Perhaps they dont need to proove anything and their profits keep increasing instead of starting decreasing. Is that so? Are their profits keep increasing? Does anybody know? I noticed Willhill is giving all poker players a 500$ bonus. Doesn't that mean that their profits decreased? If so aren't the rumors that online poker is rigged responsible?
pokeraddict
Webmaster
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2002
- Location
- Las Vegas
Thodo, where were you when the whole Absolute Poker cheating thing exploded? It seemed right up your alley.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
I am reading this thread now. Hey, you changed your mind? A casino has indeed interest in cheating poker players?
A casino has indeed interest in cheating poker players?- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
Just to concentrate the facts in this thread, I copy here the facts which I posted in the thread about VC:
wagered= 9100$
hands=7483
averege bet=1.216$
(most of the bets were 1$, very rarely 2$, and if I remember well, less than 20 times 3$)
profit/loss=-148$
I made only 8 violations of basic strategy (by mistake), 2 of which prooved to be a better choice than basic strategy. I think the cost of these violations is not greater than 0-2$.
The lowest point my bankroll reached (the greatest loss I met) during this wagering, was at hand No 6696, where the stats were:
wagered=8150$
hands=6696
average bet=1.217$
profit/loss=-220.5$
wagered= 9100$
hands=7483
averege bet=1.216$
(most of the bets were 1$, very rarely 2$, and if I remember well, less than 20 times 3$)
profit/loss=-148$
I made only 8 violations of basic strategy (by mistake), 2 of which prooved to be a better choice than basic strategy. I think the cost of these violations is not greater than 0-2$.
The lowest point my bankroll reached (the greatest loss I met) during this wagering, was at hand No 6696, where the stats were:
wagered=8150$
hands=6696
average bet=1.217$
profit/loss=-220.5$
- Joined
- Jul 31, 2006
- Location
- Sun/Moon
Game fairness does not equal to casino fairness
Cliff Notes: Game fairness does not equal to casino fairness
Royal Vegas casino (Fortune Lounge group member) uses a Microgaming software which is viewed to be very fair. However even though the games are fair, there are always room for the casino to steal the winnings at a later stage.
https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...onfiscated-8000-euros-fraudulent-claim.20552/
Cliff Notes: Game fairness does not equal to casino fairness
Royal Vegas casino (Fortune Lounge group member) uses a Microgaming software which is viewed to be very fair. However even though the games are fair, there are always room for the casino to steal the winnings at a later stage.
https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...onfiscated-8000-euros-fraudulent-claim.20552/
I haven't read through this whole thread but search out English Harbour and Odds on software and you will see that casinos can and do cheat. The management here defended them until the end, but have we ever seen the double up variation that they were trying to have us believe was in the works?
Here is a link to the epic and locked thread
https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...proof-that-english-harbour-is-cheating.12185/
Here is a link to the epic and locked thread
https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...proof-that-english-harbour-is-cheating.12185/
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
Check out my new posts where I have refined my arguments, as well as a strange incedent at the beginning:
Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)
Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)
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- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
Hm, it doesnt open, here it is again:
Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)
Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)
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- Joined
- Jun 30, 1998
- Location
- Bierland
Jeeze within minutes of your suspension being lifted (for being a troll), you post not only one URL to a thread at another site but FOUR to the same thread. 
That's totally uncool. You should school yourself on how to behave in a forum community and then come back. Bone up on forum etiquette and quit being such a damn troll - maybe people will start listening to you.
I thought you actually were going to participate here in a normal manner - guess I asked too much
60 day suspension for being mega-annoying. If the members want you to come on back, they can PM me and I'll consider it. But for now - bye.
That's totally uncool. You should school yourself on how to behave in a forum community and then come back. Bone up on forum etiquette and quit being such a damn troll - maybe people will start listening to you.
I thought you actually were going to participate here in a normal manner - guess I asked too much
60 day suspension for being mega-annoying. If the members want you to come on back, they can PM me and I'll consider it. But for now - bye.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2008
- Location
- WI, USA
I'm so glad I don't play cards. I really suck at cards.... On the down side, I'm at the mercy of slot percentages, in which case I rarely know what they even are... lol
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2008
- Location
- Split / Zagreb
I wanted to have some fun and play online blackjack a little today.
I ended up playing more than I thought I would, although it was fun (here and there, heh ).
Can any mathematicians check out these numbers for me.
It should be simple number crunching. But I'm an architect, and not a statistician.
5200 eur wagered. avg bet 4.15. I wanted to bet consistently and raise whenever I win a couple. But that happened very, very rarely so those hands didn't play much of a role.
1250 hands, 1400 bets. I know all about the strat which minimizes the house edge very closely to even bets, and apart from a misclick or two it was all played perfectly. I was hoping for a possible gain with a little luck.
But the end result is a loss of over 300 eur.
What are the odds for that?
Dominka
I ended up playing more than I thought I would, although it was fun (here and there, heh
).Can any mathematicians check out these numbers for me.
It should be simple number crunching. But I'm an architect, and not a statistician.
5200 eur wagered. avg bet 4.15. I wanted to bet consistently and raise whenever I win a couple. But that happened very, very rarely so those hands didn't play much of a role.
1250 hands, 1400 bets. I know all about the strat which minimizes the house edge very closely to even bets, and apart from a misclick or two it was all played perfectly. I was hoping for a possible gain with a little luck.
But the end result is a loss of over 300 eur.
What are the odds for that?
Dominka
debbiek
Banned User
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2007
- Location
- philadelphia
I was playing at lasvegas usa casino tonight. I noticed a dramatic increase in losses as soon as bet size increased to $5/spin. It's just so obvious, that you feel the casino software is cheating. You eventually lose because they don't want to take the chance of paying out any kind of substantial win. i don't even think $5/spin is alot.
Are these casinos that underfunded that they have the software altered as soon as bet size increases? I truly believe they do this as the losing pattern is steady right after you increase bet. I have played at all the mainstreet casinos many times now and have never won anything really big. i also don't feel there is a possibility because of how their software "behaves" when taking a bigger chance. It's really bad business because the bigger wins would be great advertising for them, but they don't see that.
Are these casinos that underfunded that they have the software altered as soon as bet size increases? I truly believe they do this as the losing pattern is steady right after you increase bet. I have played at all the mainstreet casinos many times now and have never won anything really big. i also don't feel there is a possibility because of how their software "behaves" when taking a bigger chance. It's really bad business because the bigger wins would be great advertising for them, but they don't see that.
- Joined
- May 29, 2004
- Location
- England
Las Vegas USA is RTG right? If I remember right, an operator who wants to change the percentages (apparently there are three options 93%, 95% and 98% I think it was) has to apply to RTG with a good reason for the shift and it can take up to 6 months for RTG to authorise & implement it, while I was also told that the selected % applies across the board to all slots (at least the Real Series ones anyway) in that licenced version of the software.
Second-hand (ex-employee) info from a little while back, but just throwing it into the pot.
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2006
- Location
- Norway
Im with you bro, but isn't it strange that some of us are so sure of this while some other people for some reason 100% belive we just have bad luck all the time? (Except when in a landbased casino, I just never win in BJ online - And no - I don't do more hands online!)
This argument is getting old. In my opinion people want to be disillusioned! People accually enjoy bending over and taking it, for some strange reason I cannot understand.
The smarterst thing one can do is:
a) stop wagering in a MG casino after a good win, you'll never get ahead again
b) quit online gambling all together.
Sure, this only applies for high rolling. Low rolling seems to be working, if you want to waste a year with hours for ending +-$500 which is funny money in the end! (Look at the lost working hours...) Who accually enjoys spinning $0.20 anyway... Yeyy... I won $40, hurray! This is not where you see the "patterns" emerging in the gameplay (where you end up loooosing).
Have a good one I say,
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2007
- Location
- Port St lucie Florida
Im with you bro, but isn't it strange that some of us are so sure of this while some other people for some reason 100% belive we just have bad luck all the time? (Except when in a landbased casino, I just never win in BJ online - And no - I don't do more hands online!)
This argument is getting old. In my opinion people want to be disillusioned! People accually enjoy bending over and taking it, for some strange reason I cannot understand.
The smarterst thing one can do is:
a) stop wagering in a MG casino after a good win, you'll never get ahead again
b) quit online gambling all together.
Sure, this only applies for high rolling. Low rolling seems to be working, if you want to waste a year with hours for ending +-$500 which is funny money in the end! (Look at the lost working hours...) Who accually enjoys spinning $0.20 anyway... Yeyy... I won $40, hurray! This is not where you see the "patterns" emerging in the gameplay (where you end up loooosing).
Have a good one I say,
I enjoy spinning .20 and I will yell Yeyy when I win 40.00
I was one of those people when I lived in Las Vegas who was disgusted when someone screamed when they won the jackpot on a nickel machine for 20.00 bucks. But as I have now realized if you gamble for the fun of it - its a good thing if you plan on getting rich - you may be in trouble - just my opinion
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2007
- Location
- London
It's clear to me that online casinos still have a long way to go in improving the regulation within the industry.
I'm not too sure that many casinos cheat players, it just feels that way sometimes. However, improvements in regulation are definitely needed - not only for the protection of players, but the industry as a whole needs it. Online casinos should be just as highly regulated as land-based casinos imo.
my ranting bit:
Long term, I think that the online casino industry needs to be moving towards being seen as an entertainment. A way to spend money that gives entertainment, just like theatre or cinema. Getting away from the way that casinos sell gambling as a way to make money would help players and the industry move forward. It may even result in US players being able to play online again.
I do have a question, though:
What regulation would you introduce?
With respect to slots, I feel that it's essential that all games have their payback stats clearly stated on each game, just as the pay tables are found on slots, there should be a button to look at the payback percentage.
All credit to Wagerworks for doing this and making it relatively easy to find the payback for each of their slots.
I wonder if it is possible or useful to go a bit further than just payback and get together a formal definition of slot variance and display this clearly for each slot too? Maybe it would be useful for players to know how much entertainment time (or spins) they should expect to get from any particular slot? Many players don't even know what variance is, but it makes a huge difference to how a slot plays and different people look for different variance in a slot.
off-topic:
Recently, I've been looking at some of the developments coming through and one idea (from Cyberview) is time-based gaming where a player pays for a certain amount of time on the machine and so knows how much entertainment they are going to get for their money. Having spoken to the company, I know that the patents for this type of play have been an important factor in why IGT have made a move to buy Cyberview up. Just as important as their server-based gaming patents. I wonder if we will start to see this sort of thing online soon?
I'm not too sure that many casinos cheat players, it just feels that way sometimes. However, improvements in regulation are definitely needed - not only for the protection of players, but the industry as a whole needs it. Online casinos should be just as highly regulated as land-based casinos imo.
my ranting bit:
Long term, I think that the online casino industry needs to be moving towards being seen as an entertainment. A way to spend money that gives entertainment, just like theatre or cinema. Getting away from the way that casinos sell gambling as a way to make money would help players and the industry move forward. It may even result in US players being able to play online again.
I do have a question, though:
What regulation would you introduce?
With respect to slots, I feel that it's essential that all games have their payback stats clearly stated on each game, just as the pay tables are found on slots, there should be a button to look at the payback percentage.
All credit to Wagerworks for doing this and making it relatively easy to find the payback for each of their slots.
I wonder if it is possible or useful to go a bit further than just payback and get together a formal definition of slot variance and display this clearly for each slot too? Maybe it would be useful for players to know how much entertainment time (or spins) they should expect to get from any particular slot? Many players don't even know what variance is, but it makes a huge difference to how a slot plays and different people look for different variance in a slot.
off-topic:
Recently, I've been looking at some of the developments coming through and one idea (from Cyberview) is time-based gaming where a player pays for a certain amount of time on the machine and so knows how much entertainment they are going to get for their money. Having spoken to the company, I know that the patents for this type of play have been an important factor in why IGT have made a move to buy Cyberview up. Just as important as their server-based gaming patents. I wonder if we will start to see this sort of thing online soon?
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2007
- Location
- Finland
Can it be proven?
I have had similar experiences and observed some patterns too even though I haven't always lost. However there is a fundamental problem that it is human nature to observe patterns even when they don't really exist. Like a smiley face on the surface of the moon, who put it there!
I have been thinking that the streakiness and bad runs are the "nature of blackjack" and not so much on-line software. Still I constantly run in to results, which, according to calculations, should have 1:500 to 1:2000 chance of happening. A result with 1:2000 chance can happen of course and will eventually happen, but the problem is the frequency these kind of results occur.
So my question is:
If there are patterns and worsened odds with higher bets, can this be proven with enough data? And why has no-one been able to give any proof so far?
I have generated lot of data from my on-line play but one problem is that I can only access last 20 days of play history without asking MG to send my older play data. But if there really are patterns, then surely we could all make a group effort to expose them. If it turns out this "bad luck" is just statistical variance, then we at least know that these claims are without basis. But if it is possible to find something, then maybe it could be a new "English Harbour" case?
https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...proof-that-english-harbour-is-cheating.12185/
I think that over long run the BJ payout % is very close to theoretical. But if there is any artificial streakiness added (including all those winning streaks!), then that is the same thing as cheating, simple as that.
Im with you bro, but isn't it strange that some of us are so sure of this while some other people for some reason 100% belive we just have bad luck all the time? (Except when in a landbased casino, I just never win in BJ online - And no - I don't do more hands online!)
This argument is getting old. In my opinion people want to be disillusioned! People accually enjoy bending over and taking it, for some strange reason I cannot understand.
The smarterst thing one can do is:
a) stop wagering in a MG casino after a good win, you'll never get ahead again
b) quit online gambling all together.
Sure, this only applies for high rolling. Low rolling seems to be working, if you want to waste a year with hours for ending +-$500 which is funny money in the end! (Look at the lost working hours...) Who accually enjoys spinning $0.20 anyway... Yeyy... I won $40, hurray! This is not where you see the "patterns" emerging in the gameplay (where you end up loooosing).
Have a good one I say,
I have had similar experiences and observed some patterns too even though I haven't always lost. However there is a fundamental problem that it is human nature to observe patterns even when they don't really exist. Like a smiley face on the surface of the moon, who put it there!
I have been thinking that the streakiness and bad runs are the "nature of blackjack" and not so much on-line software. Still I constantly run in to results, which, according to calculations, should have 1:500 to 1:2000 chance of happening. A result with 1:2000 chance can happen of course and will eventually happen, but the problem is the frequency these kind of results occur.
So my question is:
If there are patterns and worsened odds with higher bets, can this be proven with enough data? And why has no-one been able to give any proof so far?
I have generated lot of data from my on-line play but one problem is that I can only access last 20 days of play history without asking MG to send my older play data. But if there really are patterns, then surely we could all make a group effort to expose them. If it turns out this "bad luck" is just statistical variance, then we at least know that these claims are without basis. But if it is possible to find something, then maybe it could be a new "English Harbour" case?
https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...proof-that-english-harbour-is-cheating.12185/
I think that over long run the BJ payout % is very close to theoretical. But if there is any artificial streakiness added (including all those winning streaks!), then that is the same thing as cheating, simple as that.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2007
- Location
- Finland
Other ways to implement casino house edge
I think that the way Casinos generate their profits by offering negative value games is unfair to players because players get punished by the more they play. You can win by playing only 10 hands/spins, but you have extremely small chance of winning by playing 100 000 hands/spins. The house edge is what always brings you down in the end.
That's why I would like to see a different scenario: A Casino offering 0% house edge games and charging an entry fee or monthly membership fee instead. For example you deposit 100$ and 5$ would be charged as "commission" but then you would have 95$ to play all games with no house edge at all! Or perhaps there would be 5% commission only when you win and do a cash out. There is Betfair Zero Lounge already but I would like to see a whole casino where no games have house edge but you pay a small fee to enter. What do you think of this idea?
I think that the way Casinos generate their profits by offering negative value games is unfair to players because players get punished by the more they play. You can win by playing only 10 hands/spins, but you have extremely small chance of winning by playing 100 000 hands/spins. The house edge is what always brings you down in the end.
That's why I would like to see a different scenario: A Casino offering 0% house edge games and charging an entry fee or monthly membership fee instead. For example you deposit 100$ and 5$ would be charged as "commission" but then you would have 95$ to play all games with no house edge at all! Or perhaps there would be 5% commission only when you win and do a cash out. There is Betfair Zero Lounge already but I would like to see a whole casino where no games have house edge but you pay a small fee to enter. What do you think of this idea?
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2005
- Location
- Pennsylvania
It'll never fly.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the only reason Betfair has a Zero Lounge is because they make most of their money from the sportsbook?
- Joined
- May 29, 2004
- Location
- England
dendrite said:
Actually you can kinda do a similar thing with Wagerworks. Each member can set their own limits using different criteria (max deposits, losses etc). One of those is to set a max. wagering amount per day or week. So you could set a max of say $1,000 and then spin at $5 so you know that you have 200 spins.
I do this at Virgin and it works - sometimes you are down, sometimes up, but it's harder to chase losses and quite often you see a profit as you are forced to stop. Not quite "time based" but close.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2008
- Location
- Manila
I have been playing online baccarat and have been using a system that i designed. I found it quite effective. I do not try to figure out if the machine is fair or not. For example in baccarat i have what i call a 1 win 1 lose run. This is a run wherein i bet on a hand and i win. then the next hand i bet and for sure i will lose. It doesnt matter where i bet i WILL lose. So i lower my bet on that hand to the minimum bet. next hand i will bet big again. then lower my bet to the minimum on the next hand. If however i win with that hand that i bet minimum on, I will bet minimum again because a 100percent you will lose on the next hand. You will encounter this type of run for sure as you play.
If you are asking me whether the casinos cheat or not I think you can figure it out for yourself.
_________________________________
if it's skewed then you're screwed! unless ....
Last edited by a moderator:
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2005
- Location
- Pennsylvania
I assume you retired from Baccarat? Not by winning, but by selling your "system"?
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2008
- Location
- Manila
heh heh .not really. just been sharing info with a few guys. i still love playing the game. i don't really know how to market this as well as i should.
debbiek
Banned User
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2007
- Location
- philadelphia
"This is a run wherein i bet on a hand and i win. then the next hand i bet and for sure i will lose. It doesnt matter where i bet i WILL lose"
That's interesting you say that because I have noticed about 99% of the time when playing slots, that if you win something over your original wager, the next spin you will definitely lose. Sometimes it may be a small amount, but it general, you can take it to the bank it WIll lose. I used to lower the wager on the next spin because that was the smart thing to do, but sometimes I let the original bet ride.
I've also noticed that with the slots, if you win let's say $50, it will take it back the next 5-10 spins, very rarely gets on a roll. If the play was truly random, wouldn't this happen some of the time? It's extremely hard to find a "hot slot" online, but i've definitely seen this on land.
That's interesting you say that because I have noticed about 99% of the time when playing slots, that if you win something over your original wager, the next spin you will definitely lose. Sometimes it may be a small amount, but it general, you can take it to the bank it WIll lose. I used to lower the wager on the next spin because that was the smart thing to do, but sometimes I let the original bet ride.
I've also noticed that with the slots, if you win let's say $50, it will take it back the next 5-10 spins, very rarely gets on a roll. If the play was truly random, wouldn't this happen some of the time? It's extremely hard to find a "hot slot" online, but i've definitely seen this on land.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2008
- Location
- Manila
i have actually seen this pattern on most of the games. If you noticed in my post I never even mention whether to bet on player or banker ( what baccarat choices are supposed to be). Personally i see this as designed to beat those that are for example chasing their loses and have a tendency to double up after winning a hand.
______________________________________
if it's screwed then you're screwed! unless ....
______________________________________
if it's screwed then you're screwed! unless ....
debbiek
Banned User
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2007
- Location
- philadelphia
I definitely think the Main Street Group of casinos should currently be under investigation for unfair play. I've played at every one of their casinos in the last 2 days and they're payout is way under 70%. I sent a letter to their security telling them to close every one of my accounts.
Not one of the sessions were fair and they don't deserve any future business. That coupled with their slow payouts (one month), makes them a terrible choice for depositing. I just can't believe that this group is accredited and what's worse, people only play there because there's very little choice.
Not one of the sessions were fair and they don't deserve any future business. That coupled with their slow payouts (one month), makes them a terrible choice for depositing. I just can't believe that this group is accredited and what's worse, people only play there because there's very little choice.
