ThodorisK
Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2007
- Location
- Athens, Greece
happygobrokey what you ask to know for the bonuses is quite easy.
If the bonus is 100$ deposit +100$ deposit, wager req. 5000$ and you want to know the probability of losing 200$ (or 100$, as you like), before the wagering is completed, then you only have to use the risk of ruin formula at
But my problem is more difficult, as it assumes the play goes on until the completing of 5000 hands, whereas the risk of ruin applies when you lose a particular bankroll, and this can happen at any point between the hand No200till the hand No5000
I tried to solve it myself as I sensed that the solution might be simple, but I cant for the moment. Perhaps no mathematician knows it?! That would be funny. Someone must know it. I am not satisfied with the simulation. I want to know the theoretical proof. And if I get it from a mathematician, he will most probably use ununderstandable language, shit!
If the bonus is 100$ deposit +100$ deposit, wager req. 5000$ and you want to know the probability of losing 200$ (or 100$, as you like), before the wagering is completed, then you only have to use the risk of ruin formula at
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(I think the number of hands which corresponds for 5000$ wagering, is 5000/1.13 because of the splits and doubles)But my problem is more difficult, as it assumes the play goes on until the completing of 5000 hands, whereas the risk of ruin applies when you lose a particular bankroll, and this can happen at any point between the hand No200till the hand No5000
I tried to solve it myself as I sensed that the solution might be simple, but I cant for the moment. Perhaps no mathematician knows it?! That would be funny. Someone must know it. I am not satisfied with the simulation. I want to know the theoretical proof. And if I get it from a mathematician, he will most probably use ununderstandable language, shit!