VC Casino -- Fair BJ?

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
I recently started an affiliate site, primarily focusing on bonuses. I receive player reports with most casinos stating the net gain/loss that my referred players had. All casinos report a net casino loss (player gain) from my referrals that is reasonably close to expectations except for one -- VC Casino. At VC Casino, the casino made a net gain on their sign up bonus. Most players roughly broke even. Nobody has even been in the ballpark of the expected BJ gain on the sign on bonus of near 225GBP.

Being from the US, I've never played at VC. Does the BJ seem fair here? Is there a condition on the sign on bonus that I am unaware of?
 

POlka78

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 19, 2006
Location
Herne
We had our discussion in the thread about the fairness/randomness of online casinos, playing this Bonus was the first time i really had serious doubts.

On a 200 deposit over a wr of 5000 i completly busted and had to reload 50 to break even. I was Flatbetting 2 playing perfectstrategy on their single Deck BJ wich has, according to the WoO Houseedge Calculator, an edge of ~0,2%.

But then again i know several People who did not experiance any unusual patterns.

What really was scary were the amount of 20 and 21 with rags form the dealer.

If you had not posted this topic i would have said tough luck and variance was a bitch that day but now iam interested in more experiences.
 

thelawnet

Dormant account
Joined
Apr 4, 2005
Location
UK
I recently started an affiliate site, primarily focusing on bonuses. I receive player reports with most casinos stating the net gain/loss that my referred players had. All casinos report a net casino loss (player gain) from my referrals that is reasonably close to expectations except for one -- VC Casino. At VC Casino, the casino made a net gain on their sign up bonus. Most players roughly broke even. Nobody has even been in the ballpark of the expected BJ gain on the sign on bonus of near 225GBP.

Being from the US, I've never played at VC. Does the BJ seem fair here? Is there a condition on the sign on bonus that I am unaware of?



How many signups have you had? This would show whether it's statistically significant or not.
 

Amigo

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 12, 2006
Location
Sheffield
I've done this bonus making 250 simply on the wagering and then an additional 250 from the bonus. (total of 500 profit)
 

pangloss

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 3, 2006
Location
Australia
I did the bonus there playing I think the 6-deck vegas BJ purposely avoiding the single deck version (the bonus hunters pick).

I broke even across the WRs with some small bet size increases (ie $3 to $10) when I thought a streaky upswing was happening. The streaks were relatively minor compared to say Cryptos and other places.

Hearing your players experiences doesn't surprise me one little bit. These places just can not be trusted on their own volition - too much tampering is going on behind the scenes with no way of ascertaining whether players are getting a fair deal.

I would be interested in learning of your Grand Virtual BJ statistics. No way are they dealing a fair game. When I requested a log of my play (Treasure) they responded with the fact that they unable to produce play logs. Not even the Casino can ascertain if the SW is playing fair without access to the play logs. But never mind - they are an accredited casino.


...
 

snails168

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Location
Toronto
I played it in usd and had to deposit $450 to get a $450 match bonus. The wagering reqs were $9000 but their software was so brutal. I started out flat betting $10 a hand but said screw it and started banging away like it was a sticky bonus. I ended up $375 with average bets in the $50 range and got the bonus and cashed out no problem.
 

snails168

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Location
Toronto
I too am curious to see how many sign ups you had as I told my friend who is just starting to whore and he ended down $350 before the bonus was credited so a net gain of $100 for him.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
I too am curious to see how many sign ups you had as I told my friend who is just starting to whore and he ended down $350 before the bonus was credited so a net gain of $100 for him.
I have been getting 1-2 signups at VC per day. The site has been up for less than a week, so its not significant yet, but it will be by the end of the month. If there is a problem with this casino, I'd like to know about it before lots of players lose.

Players did better yesterday. The average gain was ~80GPB. This is better, but still quite a bit short from the exepcted player gain of 225GBP. In contrast, players fall close to expectations with other cashable BJ sign up bonuses. For example the average player gain at Golden Palace has been $280, very close to the expected $270.

At the end of the month, I'll compare stats at different casinos and look for abnormal results.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
Similar abnormal results continued throughout the month. A summary of average player gains and losses is at a variety of casinos including VC is at
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
. At 2+2, a good number of players mentioned seeing odd results similar to my stats and suspecting this is a crooked game.
 

NextToYou

Dormant Account
webmeister
Joined
Oct 17, 2006
Location
Europe
I have now finished under EV every time I have played BJ in Chartwell casinos (normal BJ, not european, single deck or lucky 7s). Usually also HUGE under EV. This is spread to ~14 individual sessions and total wagering amount has been close to $100,000 flatbetting between $2-$10. I have played BJ with every major software and never ever have experienced anything like this.

I hope someone would be able to run huge tests with this software, like flat betting $1 wagering $100,000 or so in REAL MONEY mode. I am willing to do this, if someone finances me into it.
 

Gaahl

Non-Gambler
Joined
Oct 25, 2006
Location
Norway
Any updates on this? I don't want to cry "rigged rigged", but you start to wonder when you play Chartwell. (It is the worst software on they net anyway, but still)

Has anyone investigated this any further? Have you more statistics aka?

I think this is strong enough indication of an unfair game to investigate it further.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
A lot has changed since I started the thread last year. During that first month, my stats for VC did look abnormal. During later months my stats looked reasonably normal. I removed the warning due to this change in results, as well as VC's quality reputation and Chartwell being a publicly traded company.

Having said that, a good number of players do believe that Chartwell blackjack is not purely random, more so than most other softwares. I have not seen supporting numerical data that shows results beyond normal variance. It would be very helpful to have such data. This could be in the form of lost #$ in # $1 bets, rate of dealer upcards, rate of dealer bust, etc.
 

ThodorisK

Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007
Joined
Jul 26, 2007
Location
Athens, Greece
Check my post in the thread: https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/betfair-voids-winnings-on-atp-tennis-match.19117/
about blackjack stats of the chartwell casino Betfair.

Before August I was not following 100% basic strategy, I was changing the number of boxes, etc, that is why I do not refer these results here. As you can guess, for now on I also play for stats too.

So, my results at VC for August up to this moment, are:

hands played=5,607
average bet=1.22$
profit/loss= -150.50$

(I was about -175$ when I had completed about 5,500 hands, I think)

Using the calculator at Old / Expired Link,
the risk of ruin when someone has a bankroll of 150.50$/1.22$=123 units of bankroll after 5607 hands, is 18.74%

Aka23, have you got an idea why the value for the standard deviation in 100 hands at this calculator is set at 27.72 instead of 11.3? Am I doing something wrong?

Sorry about this rough analysis, I have to revise estimation and hypothesis testing. I was very deep into it, but I forgot now. Till then, Aka23 or somebody else can remind us how to use the Gauss bell-like distribution for the matter concerned. Does the 18.74% mean that we can be 100-18.74=81.26% certain that cheating was on? I cannot answer that yet. I will let you know after my revision. But I have some wagering to finish at VC and another chartwell casino (bbbbbbr, I am scared). I will not be amazed if I get good luck after this post of mine though.
 

PaulG

Dormant account
Joined
May 5, 2007
Location
Australia
A lot has changed since I started the thread last year. During that first month, my stats for VC did look abnormal. During later months my stats looked reasonably normal. I removed the warning due to this change in results, as well as VC's quality reputation and Chartwell being a publicly traded company.

Having said that, a good number of players do believe that Chartwell blackjack is not purely random, more so than most other softwares. I have not seen supporting numerical data that shows results beyond normal variance. It would be very helpful to have such data. This could be in the form of lost #$ in # $1 bets, rate of dealer upcards, rate of dealer bust, etc.

I've played the signup and all of the weekly bonuses for the last 3 months. Firstly, I'll say that I have finished above or close to EV on every bonus, so this is not a anti-VC response. I flatbet $2-$3 a hand at single-deck.

The cards at VC are amazing and really frustrate the player. It is not uncommon for the dealer to hit 21 with 6 cards, but having said this, it also happens to the player as well. I have also noticed that the dealer busts when holding a 10 a lot. The deck appears to be rich in small cards.

The swings are also amazing. During every bonus I've played, ~approx 2000 WR, I've always swung down about -60% of my starting balance and then swung up to +60% of my starting balance and then end up at EV. Really scary.

Next time I play, I will try to gather some stats.
 

winbig

Keep winning this amount.
Joined
Mar 10, 2005
Location
Pennsylvania
I've played the signup and all of the weekly bonuses for the last 3 months. Firstly, I'll say that I have finished above or close to EV on every bonus, so this is not a anti-VC response. I flatbet $2-$3 a hand at single-deck.

The cards at VC are amazing and really frustrate the player. It is not uncommon for the dealer to hit 21 with 6 cards, but having said this, it also happens to the player as well. I have also noticed that the dealer busts when holding a 10 a lot. The deck appears to be rich in small cards.

The swings are also amazing. During every bonus I've played, ~approx 2000 WR, I've always swung down about -60% of my starting balance and then swung up to +60% of my starting balance and then end up at EV. Really scary.

Next time I play, I will try to gather some stats.

Interesting point about the "shoe" being rich with small cards, which would give the dealer a favor.

It'd be interesting to see some stats for that...
 

NextToYou

Dormant Account
webmeister
Joined
Oct 17, 2006
Location
Europe
It is not uncommon for the dealer to hit 21 with 6 cards, but having said this, it also happens to the player as well....The deck appears to be rich in small cards.

The swings are also amazing. During every bonus I've played, ~approx 2000 WR, I've always swung down about -60% of my starting balance and then swung up to +60% of my starting balance and then end up at EV.

I can agree with these two points also. I dont remember any hands playing other major softwares where dealer would have taken 6 or 7 cards to still keep 21 or under. Zero hands in my mind, even though I have played much more with Playtech software than Chartwell. BUT for example from my latest experience from Chartwell BJ I remember several occasions of this happening (wagering $10,000 flat betting $2). As I said, I have only played regular BJ.
 

ThodorisK

Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007
Joined
Jul 26, 2007
Location
Athens, Greece
Nolan (aka23), or anybody who knows well estimation and hypothesis testing in blackjack, I want your opinion. First of all Nolan, I do not understand your calculator results at your webpage, not your drawing of the normal distribution: Can you explain to me what is the value of the greek σ in your drawing, taking the below example?

I checked at Peter Griffin's "The Theory of blackjack" at pages 90-91, and I tried to apply the same method to my results:

First, lets assume that I was flatbetting 1.22$

The value of z which corresponds to the area of the Normal Distribution, is:

z=123-15.14/squareroot of(5607*1.26)= 1.28

where:
123 my losses in units of bankroll = 150.5$/1.22$,
15.14 the expected value (or the expected-average outcome) in units of bankroll, in 5607 hands when opposed with a house edge of 0.27%,
5607 the number of hands,
and 1.26 the variance of a blackjack hand.

Now, this area which corresponds to z=1.28, is the 39.96% of the area of the Normal Distribution. This corresponds to the cases that one would end up losing between 123 and 15.14 units.

To this, we must add the 50% of the area which corresponds to the cases that one would end up with a balance above the average of 15.14 units.

Therefore, the probability that one would lose 123 units or more, is 100-(50%+39.96%)=10.04%

Why (?) does this result differ from the 18.74% risk of ruin
given by the calculator:
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.


I guess one reason is that the standard deviation per 100 hands I put in this calculator is 11.3, whereas the value of 1.26 (the variance of a blackjack hand) suggests WHAT standard deviation per 100 hands?

But besides that, is my above analysis right? Did I do it all wrong? Where did I do wrong? Opinions PLEASE!
 

chuchu59

gambling addict
PABaccred
PABnonaccred
PABnononaccred
CAG
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Location
SOMEWHERE IN ASIA
I've played the signup and all of the weekly bonuses for the last 3 months. Firstly, I'll say that I have finished above or close to EV on every bonus, so this is not a anti-VC response. I flatbet $2-$3 a hand at single-deck.

The cards at VC are amazing and really frustrate the player. It is not uncommon for the dealer to hit 21 with 6 cards, but having said this, it also happens to the player as well. I have also noticed that the dealer busts when holding a 10 a lot. The deck appears to be rich in small cards.

The swings are also amazing. During every bonus I've played, ~approx 2000 WR, I've always swung down about -60% of my starting balance and then swung up to +60% of my starting balance and then end up at EV. Really scary.

Next time I play, I will try to gather some stats.


If the deck is rich in small cards, I would expect the dealer to bust less often and that should, theoretically, be disadvantageous to the player.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
So, my results at VC for August up to this moment, are:

hands played=5,607
average bet=1.22$
profit/loss= -150.50$

(I was about -175$ when I had completed about 5,500 hands, I think)

Using the calculator at Old / Expired Link,
the risk of ruin when someone has a bankroll of 150.50$/1.22$=123 units of bankroll after 5607 hands, is 18.74%

Aka23, have you got an idea why the value for the standard deviation in 100 hands at this calculator is set at 27.72 instead of 11.3? Am I doing something wrong?
Average bet size doesn't work well for variance estimations since different ways of composing the average have different overall variance. For example, flat betting $1.22 has a smaller variance than 999 $1 bets followed by a $221 bet, yet both have an average size of $1.22.

Assuming flat bets of $1.22, the return and variance calc on my site, estimates a 9.9% chance of losing $150.50 in 5607 hands. It sucks to lose that much, but its well within normal variance.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
Therefore, the probability that one would lose 123 units or more, is 100-(50%+39.96%)=10.04%
I agree. Note that my result above of 9.9% is nearly the same. The small difference likely relates to house edge and standard deviation per hand assumption, which differ depending on the particular blackjack game that is selected.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
Why (?) does this result differ from the 18.74% risk of ruin
given by the calculator:
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
I don't know how that calc works or if it is even applicable to a negative win rate. I do know how the calc on my site at
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
works. To produce the estimate above, I did the following:

1. Enter the loss of 150.5 in the "bonus" box
2. Enter the hands played of 5607 in the "wagering" box
3. Enter the bet size of 1.22 in the bet size box
4. Change the final bet: initial bet ratio to 1 since using hands played, rather than amount wagered
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
So, what is the standard deviation per 100 hands,
providing that the variance of a blackjack hand is 1.26?

Standard deviation = SQRT(variance). If the variance of 1 hand is 1.26 then, the SD of 1 hand is SQRT(1.26) = 1.12 . This sounds low. Wizard of odds and I both estimate a SD per hand slightly above this for typical BJ rules.

In any case the SD of n hands is SQRT(n) * SD for 1 hand. So with a SD per 1 hand of 1.12, the SD of net win/loss per 100 hands is SQRT(100)*1.12 = 11.2
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top