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Do RNGs produce random outcomes?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by kimss, Aug 24, 2007.

    Aug 24, 2007
  1. kimss

    kimss Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Software developer
    Location:
    Norway
    Well I for sure would like to have some input on this matter, since I lack the understanding of chaos theory, law of large numbers and such. I am however plenty skilled in software deloping, creating stats, reverse enginering and all this - but math is not my favourite subject. That doesn't mean I don't understand it, however it would be much easier for the people understanding this helping me out. I am not afraid of new words, I can google, :D

    So the topic - do RNGs produce random numbers. I take this as a true statement, or it would have no meaning. The question becomes, what are random numbers? If you were to spot a pattern, (could mean certain numbers appear more often or less) the usual tactic would be to throw in the chaos argument, or law of large numbers. I've seen it used many times.

    So let me throw a bone here, a question. Say we have 3 numbers, and the RNG would create a series of numbers. Say we generate 9 numbers, the optimal outcome would be:
    1. 3 hits
    2. 3 hits
    3. 3 hits

    If we were to get this result:
    1. 1 hit
    2. 4 hits
    3. 4 hits

    Then the argument would be, the sample size is far to small.

    My question, how big sample size would we need to the last example to not be random?
     
  2. Aug 24, 2007
  3. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    I do not understand your example. Make it more clear if you want.
     
  4. Aug 24, 2007
  5. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    It depends with how much certainty we say "not random." If less than 1 in a million chance is good enough to be "not random", then we only need ~100 samples in a 1/4/4 distribution. If less than 1 in a billion chance is required, then we need ~150 samples in that distribution.
     
  6. Aug 24, 2007
  7. kimss

    kimss Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Software developer
    Location:
    Norway
    Let's say the task was to determine if the produced series of numbers were random, or weighted. I know you like cards, but I'm a slot's person. However talking RNG it is practically the same since we are talking shuffling the deck, or producing reel positions.

    Going back to my example, we let the RNG produce 9 random numbers from 1-3. The perfect balance would be 3/9=33%, we should expect to see each number being represented 33.3% of the time the RNG comes with a number.

    If the results were to look weighted, meaning that one number appears more often than the others (or less) - how many numbers would we need the RNG to produce for this not being random. Or let me rephrase, how many numbers must the RNG produce before we can state as a fact that certain numbers are weighted (which means that it is not RNG). How big must the samle size be to be sure.

    Am I still unclear?
     
  8. Aug 24, 2007
  9. kimss

    kimss Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Software developer
    Location:
    Norway
    Great! A more concrete question would then be, take a little give a little...

    Backinfo:
    If we have 40 possible numbers, each number should in theory then get a 100% / 40 numbers = 2,5% chance of hitting. So if we were to pull 1000 numbers from the RNG we should "excpect" a 2.5% hit on each number. So far so good.

    Question:
    How much could one number be below or over the 2.5%, and how many numbers do we need to produce, for this not to be random. Let me rephrase again. Say the number 1 was off, how much must it be off %, and how many numbers would we have to produce for it not be random? We are talking 1 number off here - the others leveling around 2.5%

    I hope my math quiz is understandable. I don't need 100% sure numbers, but a feel of what we are talking about.
     
  10. Aug 24, 2007
  11. lojo

    lojo Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
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    Location:
    USA
    Kimss, I believe the weighting occurs in the program, not the RNG. Two different animals.
     
  12. Aug 24, 2007
  13. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
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    It sounds like we are talking about 5 Reel Drive reel positions. For the number of hits on a particular reel position to be 5 SDs beyond the mean, the following must be true:

    ABS(x - np) > 5*SQRT(np(1-p))
    x = actual number of events
    n = number of samples
    p = chance of event
    np = expected number of events
    SQRT(np(1-p)) = standard deviation

    Or another way of looking at it, ABS(x - np) / SQRT(np(1-p)), correspponds to the number of SDs beyond the mean the result is.

    The number of samples required depends on how far the distribution is from expected. The closer the distribution is to expected, the more samples you need.
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. Aug 24, 2007
  15. kimss

    kimss Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Software developer
    Location:
    Norway
    Man I wish I understood those formulas, however I should look more into that since it's obviously the correct way of studying the numbers. 5 Reel Drive would be a nice example, but not in this case, however I have more tricks up my sleeves!

    The variations on 5 Reel Drive is pretty dramatic looking at the %, I would think everyone agrees here that they are weighted. However a more subtle change would be harder to detect, unless you are looking in the right places. This is why such a formula is of most importance and I thank you for it. I will put on my thinking cap on now and get back a little later, :)

    Thanks again aka23!
     
  16. Aug 24, 2007
  17. happygobrokey

    happygobrokey Dormant account

    Occupation:
    student of life
    Location:
    canada
    examples be damned. you said if someone starts the thread about rng randomness, that you'd disseminate your findings with respect to this.

    so disregard the example scenario.

    the question: do rng's produce random results?

    your contention: they do not.

    your proof: i expect it to be forthcoming.

    :thumbsup:
     
  18. Aug 24, 2007
  19. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    I was writing it all night. It will be posted here.
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Aug 24, 2007
  21. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    What to do? Post it, or keep refining and improving my arguments?
     
  22. Aug 24, 2007
  23. GaryWatson

    GaryWatson Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Marketing Consultant
    Location:
    Europe
    Keep refining and improving your arguments
     
  24. Aug 24, 2007
  25. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    I have done so to a satisfatroty degree. here it comes:
     
  26. Aug 24, 2007
  27. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    Theodoros Kiriakopoulos
    Athens, Greece

    WHY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR A RNG TO PRODUCE RANDOM-INDEPENDENT OUTCOMES

    REASON No1
    (and how to take advantage of the degree of non-randomness, to have an edge against the casino)

    When a mathematician examines if a RNG generates random SEQUENCES of numbers-outcomes, some statistical tests are used (these numbers-outcomes are series of 0 or 1 which correspond to sequences of numbers from 1 to 9 or sequences of cards from ace to king, etc). Read here what these tests are:
    You must register/login in order to see the link..

    BUT WHAT IS A NON-RANDOM SEQUENCE OF NUMBERS?
    Very difficult and revealing question. So lets see what the mathematicians claim a non-random sequence of outcomes is:
    It is a sequence that it is rejected by these statistical tests.
    But note that even if no statistical tests are made, WE KNOW that a RNG will definatelly not generate such a sequence:

    Of course we are talking of sequences of the outcome of either 1 or 0.
    A statistical test will reject the sequence:
    1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 ...
    and I think they will also reject the sequence:
    1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0 ...
    and as you understand, they will reject many-many more sequences that are predictable or are the results of a mathematical formula.

    But all these sequences are equally probable with any other sequences of numbers!
    THEREFORE THERE IS NO SEQUENCE OF NUMBERS THAT IT IS NOT RANDOM!

    Therefore, the RNGs do not produce random outcomes. The randomness of the outcomes of a RNG, IS BIASED BY THE FACT THAT THE SEQUENCES IT PRODUCES BELONG TO A GROUP OF SEQUENCES WHICH PASS A CERTAIN COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL TESTS. So this combination of statistical tests constitutes a non-random pattern which the outcomes of the RNG follow.

    And therefore, the outcomes of a RNG are predictable to a degree. Exactly because we know and we can predict that all predictable sequences will not happen. Therefore, this allows us to have a degree of predictability. Thus the amusing contradiction is that if casinos wanted the outcomes to be completely random-independent-unpredictable, they should not deprive them the possibility of being predictable!

    Now how can one take advantage of this small but existent degree of non-randomness and predictability? I guess this degree of non-randomness due to the above reason is quite small. But a small edge of 1% is enough to exceed the house edge in the game of blackjack, and thus the player can have an edge against the casino. And an edge, however small, is enough to make one head up towards infinite profit.

    So this is what I did: I played basic strategy, but raised my bet whenever I expected that a sequence of cards rich in aces & pictures was coming. When did I expect this to happen?
    First, I knew that since the RNG passed some the LOCAL RANDOMNESS statistical tests (see: You must register/login in order to see the link.),
    then any same group of cards (e.g. fives, or non-pictures), will be (to a certain degree) evenly distributed in all locations of the sequence of cards. So any same group of cards, would not cluster more than a certain degree of clustering. Thus after 1, or 2, or 3, or a certain number of cards (and therefore hands), the probability of meeting a sequence of cards rich in aces & pictures, will be higher compared with the probability this would had to happen if the outcomes were truly random.
    On the other hand, some degree of clustering of the cards should be there, as then we would have the sequence of the type:
    Picture no picture picture no picture picture no picture ...
    And this sequence would have also certainly be rejected by the statistical tests or some other type of checking.
    I made large profits compared to my average bet, having played more than, If I remember well, 20,000 hands, in cryptologic and Netentertainment casinos, simply by doing this:
    All the above considerations suggest a particular type of bias, which I did observe also experimentally:
    That pictures and aces, as well as non-pictures and non-aces were clustering more than the statistically (randomness supposition) expected, in clusters which lasted for about 4-6 hands when playing one box. So, after having seen 4-6 hands which were poor in ace-pictures, and the last hand was a bit richer in aces-pictures than the previous 3-5 hands, I was expecting a clustering of ace-pictures in the next hands, and raised my bet (from 1$ to at lest 3$, maximoum 4$, very rarely to 5$ or 6$). And after having seen 4-6 hands rich in ace-pictures and the last hand was a bit poorer in aces-pictures than the last 3-5 hands, I lowered my bet to the minimoum of 1$.
    I think I made about 600$ profit this way, in these casinos. On the other hand, I ended up very far below the statistically average-expected values in Charwell, Boss media, and other casinos. The thing gets complicated, as one might say that this was only variance (And definatelly not a case of cheating). But I gave up my above experiments in the casinos that I lost, and went only for the bonus, flatbetting 1$ when I was losing or thought I had a bad run. And my raised bets were of a maximoum of 2$, insufficient to create an edge by taking advantage of any RNG bias.

    REASON No2

    Sequences of numbers based on physical events (which at the bottom line are the MOTION of molecules or subatomic particles) cannot be random-independent, because all events in the Universe depend on the past positions and velocities of these particles, EVEN if Heisnbergs Uncertaintly Principle is correct. Because this Principle means a degree of independency, so there is also a degree of dependency (on past velocities and positions). If I argue on whether this Principle is true or false, we are getting in the field of physics and it takes a whole book to examine this. (I have written a book on physics, but it is in greek, and I keep improving it).

    Actually, the pressuposition of independent events that probability theory is based on, is false! Independent events never happen! It is just a theoretical structure! No events in the Universe are independent between them, but their chaotic-complicated pattern makes them appear as if they were independent, so they fall close to the mathematical probability formulas and distributions.

    (Evenmore, the money related bets-investments a gambler or investor is making, are also depended by the Law of Justice (Karma), but it takes a book from me to say why I know with a 100% certainty that God is true and has programmed the Law of Justice for each particular soul-perception. But all other arguments in this post are still valid if this paragraph is ignored. But I wanted to mention it).

    But, since the random tosses a gambler or investor is making, appear independent-random and seem to obey the probability distributions of theoretically independent random events, even after miliions of such bets-investments, we can grossly assume they are indeed random-independent.

    REASON No3
    (and why it is impossible for a player to take advantage of the non-randomness of a RNG outcomes in some or all casinos. And why this non-randomness also constitutes cheating by the casino. This does not mean that the below is the only way casinos cheat).

    UNBELIEVABLE! LAST LIGHT I FOUND THIS:

    Sren: How do you make random numbers and a fair casino game?
    Roger: It truly isn't possible for a computer to come up with a coincidental account of numbers. A computer always calculates its numbers based on mathematical statistics. These statistics remain constant regardless of the complexity of the calculating process. I have been responsible for the development of Boss Medias Random Number Generator 'RNG', also for how one can receive a random card at one of our casinos and for how a roulette ball can randomly land on any given number upon any spin of the wheel. The core to our Random number generator is simply a little box attached to a computer via a port called an Orion TRNG. This TRNG interfaces (wide noise), so that a Random number generator can be read from inside the computer. The more technically interested can read more about the process by researching how these mechanisms work. Boss Medias RNG is tested over billions of results that are constantly monitored for accuracy in our 100% random results. You can follow up your interest by looking at the following flow chart in Picture 14: Flowchart
    ( You must register/login in order to see the link. )


    Go to the this page and click on the Picture 14: Flowchart
    What the hell are all these procedures? And what does this gentleman mean? Are the future random outcomes cut and modified so that the profits/losses of each player, or the profits/losses of all players playing in a Boss Media casino, will definitely fall close to the statistically expected average payoff? Doesnt that mean that each player NO MATTER WHAT HIS DECISIONS ARE, will surely not win much above (or lose much below) the statistically expected average payoff? If the amount I will lose or win is predetermined to fall within certain limits, then not only the future outcomes are not random-independent events, but this equals to CHEATING. For example, if you are already winning much above the statistical average payoff, and you suddendly make a very big bet, this bet is bound to lose!!!

    And therefore, of course, there is no way for the player to take advantage of the non-randomness of such RNG.

    All the above are my SO FAR conclusions. As I said, I always attack my so far conclusions with counterarguments, and thus I get more true and detailed knowledge.

    Voila!
     
  28. Aug 24, 2007
  29. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    (last NIGHT, not last LIGHT, lol)
     
  30. Aug 24, 2007
  31. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    RNGs don't select outcomes to reduce clusters of cards or prevent long sequences of similar results. These outcomes should occur and do occur, if you play enough hands. If the casino does not shuffle after each hand (some softwares shuffle at unknown points, rather than after each hand), then there will indeed be a reduced chance of ace/face cards after several have occurred. The reasons for this change relate to card counting and missing cards in the deck, rather than RNGs modifying results to prevent clustering.

    Computers typically use P-RNGs, generating outcome according to a recursive formula that repeats itself after a huge number of outputs, such as 2^31 - 1. It's not truly random, but it will be nearly impossible to predict the outcome unless you know the formula used.

    It's my understand that Boss Media does not use a P-RNG. Instead, it determines outcomes from a natural event designated as random, like radioactive decay or electrical noise, rather than using a formula. I didn't see anything in the Boss Media RNG flowchart or description that suggests players will not win much above or below a cutoff.
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2007
    1 person likes this.
  32. Aug 25, 2007
  33. happygobrokey

    happygobrokey Dormant account

    Occupation:
    student of life
    Location:
    canada
    lame!

    1. = circumstantial and not indicative of how the thing really works. you make it seem like aces and faces are related and occur together, and that every non-face is designated a crappy card. an ace or face combined with an 8 or 9 is a good enough hand for me. you are right that AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA or AKAKAKAKAKAKAKAKAKA would not be random, but the thing does not weed these out of its results. every card in the sequence is randomly picked from the n cards that could be in the shoe based on the number of decks the game has. has nothing to do with the groups of cards that make up a hand, or how rich in x-valued cards the previous hands were. and with shuffling each hand, it means that zero cards have come out of the shoe prior to the deal.

    2. = without knowing that your results come from these phenomena, and without an intimate knowledge of the particles/waves in question, how could you say there's predictability in their movements. and there is no god, or karma. if there were karma in gambling then what you say in 3 should always happen, or players making a dumb mistake should be damned to lose for their ignorance/carelessness. AND YOU HAVE A PROOF OF THE EXISTENCE OF GOD??????????????????????????????????????????? this i gotta see.

    3. you've never won when you upped your bet? it happens. but more often than not you make that bet as once-only in your mind, so you never get a chance to win it back. if you made your entire session with $25 bets, would you say the game would make you lose all of these? you win just as often with a large bet as a small one, however you make far fewer of the large bets and your bankroll can't support the swings that come with flatbetting in large amounts. try this with your infinite bankroll then. flatbet $1, and on every tenth hand bet $10. see how often you win or lose the $10 bets. after a hundred of these big bets, you will be between 40-60 and 60-40.

    my guess is that all the scientific, medical, mathematical advances you have in mind are all conspiracy theories like this one? i mean, proof of god? who the fuck are you? does he talk to you, or did he just give you the power to show through science that he exists? took him long enough. i wonder why he's chosen now to reveal himself. does it have anything to do with any recent unrelated discoveries in science, without which the proof you have of his existence would not have made sense? since you're greek, is this zeus? or is it that lame limp excuse for a christian god? or is it xenu lmao? i'll ask for the third time where you were educated and what degrees you hold? :thumbsup:
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2007
  34. Aug 25, 2007
  35. mikepipe

    mikepipe Dormant account

    Occupation:
    owner
    Location:
    still progressing

    With all due respect Sir: I never read such a weak sensed post in this forum.
    I am sorry, but i cannot follow your suggestions in any point.
    Good luck, and maybe you do well , joining me in not gambling?:)
     
  36. Aug 25, 2007
  37. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    Dear happygobrokey,
    There is a probability that your comments were out of ingorance, and not out of an intension to mess up the flow of thought of others. So I will respond to you.

    First, The paragraph where I mentioned the Law of Jusctice and God, was in brackets, and I clarified that this paragraph can well be COMPLETELLY ignored. Why it can be ignored, would be obvious to the one who undersatnds all the other arguments I mentioned, as I do.
    Oh, and the question is not why God has answered to me. If God has answered to me and gave me some secret knowledge, that is an enough gain for me, and I do not have to share it with others in order to make it a gain for me. The question is why should God answer to you?

    "you make it seem like aces and faces are related and occur together, and that every non-face is designated a crappy card. an ace or face combined with an 8 or 9 is a good enough hand for me. "

    When the cards dealt are ace-picture rich enough, the player has an edge. When the opposite, the casino has an edge. When they are neither rich nor poor, the house has an edge of about 0.5% if the player follows basic strategy. Ask others to clarify this more to you.

    "you are right that AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA or AKAKAKAKAKAKAKAKAKA would not be random, but the thing does not weed these out of its results. every card in the sequence is randomly picked ...

    I did not say that 1111111... or 101010101... are not random sequences. I said exactly the opposite: That they ARE random. But the statistical tests made to approve or not a RNG sequence, reject them as non-random.
    Your following arguments claim that the outcomes of RNG are random because ... a RNG gives out random outcomes! Nice argument!

    "without knowing that your results come from these phenomena, and without an intimate knowledge of the particles/waves in question, how could you say there's predictability in their movements."

    I did not say that a player can create an edge against the casino because the physical events are not independent-random, I only said that this is a proof-reason that the outcomes of a RNG are not independent-random, whcih is REASON No2. And I only said that this edge can be derived from REASON No1, which is the fact that the statistical tests reject some known sequences as non-random.

    Try to calm down your anger against me, or else you will not understand a thing of my sayings. A barking dog cannot think. It just barks.
    Or did you understand them but wanted to mess the flow of though of objective thinkers? Let you know I have printouts of all this, so you will not be able to destroy them even if you send me a virus.

    All these arguments I read so far are incapable of proving mine as wrong. This a shame though because if they did, these counter-arguments would had helped deepen my knowledge. Therefore I WANT my arguments to be demolished, as I failed to do so myself. I will not reply again to stupid arguments, only to relativelly successful ones, like Nolan's.

    But Nolan, I did not see where your arguments proove mine as wrong.
    Yes, the results of a logarithm cannot be predicted, one cannot predict with a 100% certainty when a ace-picture is coming, but I talked about a DEGREE of prediction, which can predict that the probability of an-ace picture coming is at least 40%, instead of 39%. Such small gaps are very possible to happen exactly because of the statistical tests which the RNG outcomes pass through.

    As for the fact that you did not see in the Boss Media chart or in the words of the executive what I saw, (regarding my REASON No3), well I just have to take your word for it? You provided no argumentation against mine.
     
  38. Aug 25, 2007
  39. ThodorisK

    ThodorisK Most Annoying Forum Member of 2007

    Occupation:
    writer
    Location:
    Athens, Greece
    RNGs don't select outcomes to reduce clusters of cards or prevent long sequences of similar results. These outcomes should occur and do occur, if you play enough hands. If the casino does not shuffle after each hand (some softwares shuffle at unknown points, rather than after each hand), then there will indeed be a reduced chance of ace/face cards after several have occurred.

    But that's exactly what the statistical tests are doing: go on, read wikipedia "statistical tests". If a result is 1-1-1-1-1-1..., or if we have 990 ones and 5 zeros in a 1000 digits sequence, this is fails the LOCAL RANDOMNESS tests! REJECT! ZONG! On the other hand, the GLOBAL RANDOMNESS tests demand that some such "abnormalities" SHOULD exist! So that is why I said that there is a COMBINATION of randomness tests that defines a pattern. And there is a pattern, because such a combination of tests is bound to be limited and not consider ALL possible "abnormalities".

    Evenmore, if the FUTURE outcomes are made to DEFINATELLY fall close to the average statistical expectations and there are no "local" or "global" "abnormalities", then the future outomes are dependent on this predetermined condition, therefore they are not random-independent.

    About reshuffling: The sequence of the generated digits (which has to pass or statistical tests or it is limited by statistical tests), that defines the next cards, is a sequence that it is not terminated and restarted after every reshuffle. As this is also the case regarding the sequence of e.g. roulette outcomes. There is no reshuffling after every spin in roulette. So the sequence of the generated digits which defines the future outcomes of roulette, is not restarted after every spin.

    Show me where I am wrong, if I am wrong.
     

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