Horse Racing & Tips Thread

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colinsunderland

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Couple for today

4.35D Different Gravey. Decent in PTP's. Should like the trip and the ground. Dan Skelton on board. Be surprised if this doesn't get placed at least. Nothing in the race really stands out as being better so as good a chance as any and at 10/1 seems a little overpriced to me.

5.05D Probably won't back this as I don't do well in bumpers, but following the money is usually the right idea in these. Phil De Pail has been backed in from 14/1 to 10/1. If it falls any further, it might be worth a small EW bet.

3.15S Red Stripes. Can't see this not being placed assuming there are no non runners, so theres 8 still running. Has a decent chance of winning too. 11/2

A couple of wins

2.05S Mulzim. Should be able to beat these and the jockey usually wins when he's on a favourite.

4.45L Lisheen Castle is the interesting one here. Should really be able to win a race like this, however being off for 2 years is an obvious negative, especially considering how heavy the ground is. So bearing that in mind, I think Robinshill will hack up here. The ground is a bit of a concern, although he's won on heavy, he seems to prefer it not to be too deep, but theres nothing else in the race that should trouble him too much, although there seems to be a bit of a gamble going on on Nordic Combined, who was 14/1 last night, now into 4/1, and likely to drop a little further as the Betfair exchange price is actually slightly lower than that. The upside of that is Robinshill has drifted from odds on last night to 7/2 with unibet, around 3/1 in other places.

2.20D The Late Legend. This is my main bet of the day. Tim Weston has a 21% strike rate in chases over the past 5 years, and a 50% strike rate this year. 10 runs, 5 wins, and 4 placed. It's his only runner of the day, and his first one for about 3 weeks from what I can see. Sean makes a long journey to Doncaster for the ride, which, if he doesn't win, will cost him money. Looking at the rest of the card there are at least 3 more horses he presumably could have rode if he wanted, so I think him going there for that one alone is also significant. It's form figures since August this year are 221141121, including last time out winning over CD on similar ground. A long slog through soft ground is where Sean excells in his riding and barring accidents, can't see this not winning today. The only one I could see troubling him is Minella Encore, but he doesn't seem to like winning, and although he has been running in better races on paper than The Late Legend, looking at them in depth shows the opposition isn't any better than today's race. I expect Sean to either make the running or hold him up in 2nd or 3rd depending on the pace, then try to go clear after the 3rd last. This is probably the strongest bet I've had this year. Probably do a smaller double with Mulzim and if that gets beat just do a decent win single on this. The current 4/1 with Unibet is crazy. I don't use Skybet but would happily have a bet on it to win by 5 lengths or more at the current 10/1 if I did. He is also entered Friday in the same class of race, but with a much more competitive field and think he has him here as it's the easier race to win. It had better win after I wrote all that :D

Good luck today :D
 
geordiecolin

geordiecolin

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It has not been a good week for my ew betting so far and today is no different. I have taken Phil De pail also. Good luck with your bets :)

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

1. Across The Line
4/1
24th Feb DONCASTER 13:45 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 128y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
2. Ami Desbois
7/2
24th Feb DONCASTER 15:30 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 7f 214y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
3. Portstorm
5/1
24th Feb DONCASTER 16:05 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 84y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
11. Phil De Pail
10/1
24th Feb DONCASTER 17:05 FLAT 2m 0f 128y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
 
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colinsunderland

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2021-02-24 (11).png


ok, so that sums my luck up recently, 4th day in a row I've been one goal off winning a few hundred. QPR last night 0-0 :(

Todays losers

12.30H Hamilton's Fantasy could beat these, or could come last haha. Probably won't back it but would rather take the 6's on this than either of the favourites.

1.55C Eamon An Cnoic has to win this surely. I'm amazed he isn't 1/3 let alone odds against. This is a much better race than the favourite Grumpy Charley has been running in and although he won his last 2, he hasn't been up against anything close to Eamon An Cnoic's standard, who destroyed the other runners last time out in a similar race to this, by 20 lengths.

4.00C I've been told Robin Of Sherwood is expected to win today. Sean's only ride and been money for it this morning so looks like the info might be right. Of course things don't always go to plan. As long as the ground doesn't go heavy or get too cut up I think he has a chance of being placed, not sure about winning though. 8/1 still available in places, 15/2 generally though.

In the 3.27C I'm struggling to understand the price difference between Funambule Sivola and Arian. The favourites been running ok, but in lower grade races than this, whereas Arian has been running in, and winning, races very similar. Last time out he fell when looking like he was going to win. The prices are currently 6/5 and 7/2 and if anything I would have them the other way round, so will be backing Arian as I think it's massively overpriced.

2.42S Sigurd was in good form before being pulled up in a better race than this. Prior to that he won he previous 2 races, similar to this one, by 39l and 11l. Assuming there was nothing wrong last time, then think he should get placed at least and 15/2 seems a decent price.

3.12S Chinwag should win this easily enough. 11/8

2.20T Er Dancer. Was outclassed in a better race than this last time, but won his first start under rules, and is a pretty decent PTP horse. 28/1 seems a bit high so happy to back it EW.

1.20C Bit of a gamble ongoing on Sixteen Letters, 66/1 just over an hour ago, into 18/1. Doesn't take that much money to move a 66/1 shot though, and Russian Invasion in the same race has been backed from 100/1 into 12/1. 2.27 Ostuni 20's into 16's has also had a little money.
 
geordiecolin

geordiecolin

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There is more racing today than there is on Saturday by far :eek:

I've a few bets on today but I will show my shot to nothing :) Good luck with your bets

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

10. Sixteen Letters
18/1
25th Feb CHEPSTOW 13:20 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 3f 100y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
7. Ostuni
16/1
25th Feb CHEPSTOW 14:27 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 3f 98y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
5. Steel Native
11/1
25th Feb CHEPSTOW 16:00 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f 54y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
6. Onagatheringstorm
3/1
25th Feb CHEPSTOW 16:35 FLAT 2m 0f 11y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
 
geordiecolin

geordiecolin

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colinsunderland said:
View attachment 151197


ok, so that sums my luck up recently, 4th day in a row I've been one goal off winning a few hundred. QPR last night 0-0 :(

Todays losers

12.30H Hamilton's Fantasy could beat these, or could come last haha. Probably won't back it but would rather take the 6's on this than either of the favourites.

1.55C Eamon An Cnoic has to win this surely. I'm amazed he isn't 1/3 let alone odds against. This is a much better race than the favourite Grumpy Charley has been running in and although he won his last 2, he hasn't been up against anything close to Eamon An Cnoic's standard, who destroyed the other runners last time out in a similar race to this, by 20 lengths.

4.00C I've been told Robin Of Sherwood is expected to win today. Sean's only ride and been money for it this morning so looks like the info might be right. Of course things don't always go to plan. As long as the ground doesn't go heavy or get too cut up I think he has a chance of being placed, not sure about winning though. 8/1 still available in places, 15/2 generally though.

In the 3.27C I'm struggling to understand the price difference between Funambule Sivola and Arian. The favourites been running ok, but in lower grade races than this, whereas Arian has been running in, and winning, races very similar. Last time out he fell when looking like he was going to win. The prices are currently 6/5 and 7/2 and if anything I would have them the other way round, so will be backing Arian as I think it's massively overpriced.

2.42S Sigurd was in good form before being pulled up in a better race than this. Prior to that he won he previous 2 races, similar to this one, by 39l and 11l. Assuming there was nothing wrong last time, then think he should get placed at least and 15/2 seems a decent price.

3.12S Chinwag should win this easily enough. 11/8

2.20T Er Dancer. Was outclassed in a better race than this last time, but won his first start under rules, and is a pretty decent PTP horse. 28/1 seems a bit high so happy to back it EW.

1.20C Bit of a gamble ongoing on Sixteen Letters, 66/1 just over an hour ago, into 18/1. Doesn't take that much money to move a 66/1 shot though, and Russian Invasion in the same race has been backed from 100/1 into 12/1. 2.27 Ostuni 20's into 16's has also had a little money.
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Unlucky with your football betting. The reason why I seldom do football accumulators is that there is usually just the one to let me down.
Sixteen letters has been busier than the form guide suggests and that is the main reason why I backed it .

Edit. After the 1.00 H today Juniper is one for my notebook
 
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geordiecolin

geordiecolin

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colinsunderland said:
Thought sixteen letters ran well even though didn't get placed, just got outpaced in the final couple of furlongs, think it ended up 5th
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Yes. I thought it was an ew shoe in until it ran out of gas.
I've just been looking at the racing in Ireland on Sunday. Is the amount of entrants for a maiden unusual?

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colinsunderland

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geordiecolin said:
Yes. I thought it was an ew shoe in until it ran out of gas.
I've just been looking at the racing in Ireland on Sunday. Is the amount of entrants for a maiden unusual?

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probably a bit higher than most but it's quite a big maiden with a decent prize, most will drop out by Saturday
El Dancer just came 4th at 25/1, needed 3rd, can see what type of day today will be haha
 
geordiecolin

geordiecolin

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colinsunderland said:
View attachment 151258

Wonder which one will let me down tonight haha. If a couple go 1-0 up and the cash out gets to a couple of hundred I might take it. Think PSV are the most likely to let me down as Olympiacos are in pretty good form, and possibly Milan.
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Good luck Col.
I was thinking of sticking with cncas's structure for this Saturdays comp.
Start with 10 points. Choose at least one nag in the 335 at Kempton and two other horse at the same meeting up to 3 horses in total. EW costs you 2 points per bet.
£30 to the winner. Usual rules apply- You have to have contributed to this thread within the past 6 months.
 
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colinsunderland

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geordiecolin said:
Good luck Col.
I was thinking of sticking with cncas's structure for this Saturdays comp.
Start with 10 points. Choose at least one nag in the 335 at Kempton and two other horse at the same meeting up to 3 horses in total. EW costs you 2 points per bet.
£30 to the winner. Usual rules apply- You have to have contributed to this thread within the past 6 months.
Click to expand...
Sounds good to me :) thanks for doing it :)

2 teams winning at half time, other two drawing, cash out £91, wtf haha
 
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Kenji85

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Leverkusen were beaten 2-0 at home.

That cashout offer was pish too.....

Comp looks good. I'll post the losers to avoid Saturday morning :laugh: :laugh:
 
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