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Blackjack Conspiracy Theory

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by KasinoKing, Sep 27, 2004.

    Sep 27, 2004
  1. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Bexhill on sea, England
    I dont know if this thought has been posted before, but I have a theory about online Blackjack.
    There have been many posts recently about this, that or the other software being rigged to make sure us punters cant win. I too have had this feeling recently.
    It seems VERY unlikely that the top software providers with very good names would do anything blatantly dodgy, but maybe they would do something sneakily dodgy?
    I dont know the exact figure; so lets just say the Vegas average BJ payout is 98% for real games.
    Now just suppose for a minute that online software was written to act in the same way as a slot machine; rather than giving truly random cards, it gives cards to ensure the overall payout is 98%.
    In other words, whether you employed the best possible strategy in the world, or played like a brainless twat, over a long run you would still end up returning roughly-roughly 98%.
    Then, if anyone queried the casinos honesty they could just turn round, point at the statistics and say Our payout is 98% - the industry standard. What are you talking about??

    Just a thought.. ;)
  2. Sep 27, 2004
  3. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    It would be noticeable if the payout were set to 98% with optimal strategy. 10,000 hands should provide sufficient evidence of cheating.
  4. Sep 27, 2004
  5. ftg

    ftg Banned User - bogus claim - violation of <a href="

    How can this prove anything?

    Lossing 200 hands in 10,000 hands is about -1.3 SD.
  6. Sep 27, 2004
  7. jpsartre

    jpsartre Dormant account

    First of all, casinos don't need to do anything to achieve a payout that correlates with 'industry standard'. The rules for the game and mathematics will dictate that.

    Second of all, why don't you try playing like a brainless twat and see if your payout changes. It's an easy way to test your theory :)
  8. Sep 27, 2004
  9. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Bexhill on sea, England
    :lolup: What makes you think I don't play like a brainless twat anyway! :lolup:

    Firstly, we all know the maths & the odds are against us - otherwise casinos wouldn't exist!
    But secondly, we all believe we can beat those odds - otherwise gamblers wouldn't exist!
    I can't imagine anyone saying to themselves "I think I'll sit down for a couple of hours of blackjack, and pay the house $2 for every $100 I wager, just for the pleasure of watching some playing cards flipped over".

    I am not a blackjack expert, and don't even like the game that much (Well, not since the casino's started rigging it.... ;) ) But there are people out there (and posting to this forum) who are 'experts', and who believe that with the right strategy they can win. I for one do not doubt them.
    But there have been a lot of posts recently from players saying whatever they do - they just CAN NOT win online. I was just suggesting one remotely possible reason why. I sincerely hope I'm wrong!

    By the way, I just checked my BJ stats for the last 12 months at 'a very well known online casino' and found:-
    Total Wagered $26,209 Lost $440 = Return 98.32%
    .. and that was playing like a twat! ;)
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2004
  10. Oct 30, 2004
  11. eek

    eek Dormant account

    What is needed is RNG standards.

    I notice that CON mentions the md5 RNG.
    I dont recall seeing anyone else using an RNG standard.

    The spooky bit is: Only the roulette RNG was certified by PWC at CON.

    There is no mention for the RNG of any other game...

    So PWC can check these things and certify them.
    So its up to the casinos... :D do they want to prove randomness?
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2004
  12. Oct 30, 2004
  13. snuf419

    snuf419 Dormant account

    I have that feeling too, KK.
    There is definitely something going on. Casinos are trying to get rid their sole obsticle- players who play with bonuses and know a bit of math, that's us. Taking RTG as an example, I can honestly tell you I found out some what I call 'indicators' in the game, and I adjust my play accordingly. It works most of the time and I often make a bit of $ here and there. But sometimes I just can't beat it, I lose on anything I bet. And this is occurring increasingly more often.
  14. Oct 30, 2004
  15. sw2003

    sw2003 Dormant account

    somewhere :)
    If you sit at a multi-table, you can just watch card flipping without having to pay $2 every so often. It is free!

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