A CHALLENGE to Cipher and Bethug (merged with Seanjohn's "apology" thread)

[grus]

Hi seanjohn & others,

The debate here is meaningless. The outcome completely depends on if the RNGs in casino software are mathematically random. If they are random, as all casinos claim, Cipher & BetHug have to be wrong; otherwise, They definitely can be right.

The reason why the "wizardofodds" guy dare to face any challenge is because in his simulations, RNGs are random, which could or could not be the case in online casino software.

 

[eek]

That basically sums it up.
If they're not random you can let the software beat you up on the smaller bets.
Then once the 'randomness' reaches the edge of its flight envelope, (as I would say) you start upping your bets a bit, and push the statistical probability of the session even further into a corner.

Its at that point that you up your bets even further.
The software has nowhere to go, unless it wants to start cranking out 4 and 5 SD stuff in a 100/200 hand session.

You can write your own stuff on a spreadsheet using macros that encompass dozens of tests.(dealing seconds etc)

Here's one the wiz did.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

If it was random, you couldn't do this.

 

[eek]

The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination.
Albert Einstein

 

[caruso]

If they're not random you can let the software beat you up on the smaller bets. Then once the 'randomness' reaches the edge of its flight envelope, (as I would say) you start upping your bets a bit, and push the statistical probability of the session even further into a corner. Its at that point that you up your bets even further. The software has nowhere to go, unless it wants to start cranking out 4 and 5 SD stuff in a 100/200 hand session.

I'm sorry Eek, this is piffle. Cards do not have memory. That you can somehow "force" the software into dealing you good cards, having received bad cards previously, on the basis that continued bad cards "push the statistical probability of the session even further into a corner" is absolute nonsense.

Betting systems, online or terrestrial, cannot turn a negative expectation game into a positive one. This subject doesn't require discussion, it is a long, long established and proven fact.

If you believe you can change the odds with a betting system, short term or long term, you are a fool.

 

[eek]

Its not a betting system Caruso.
Its probability, randomness (or a lack of it), and the SD limits of the software you are playing on.

Once you get to the 3.5sd mark on some software you can actually get quite a decent game.

Other stuff:
If you hit/hit/hit/hit/hit on 16 v 10 then suddenly decide to stay you get that 'pause' as the software is forced to make a new decision that affects the dealer...not the player.

If RNGs were random, they would have certified RNG standards.
But they don't.

I know its usless in a true random scenario.
(not exactly rocket science there 'Russo)

-----------------------
BTW, on the subject of randomness.
I notice my local B&M is using auto shuffling machines now.

 

[seanjohn]

It is apparent that the above posters, namely 'grus' and 'eek', have not taken into consideration the five logical dilemas I pointed out on my other thread 'A challenge to Cipher and Bethug'. If that is the case, allow me to draw your attention to the first question: 'Why does Cipher need a client if he has a winning system?'

This question has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with whether or not the casino's RNG is rigged or not. Even if its true that the casino's RNG is messed up and I somehow found out a way to exploit it, meaning I make tonnes of money out of it, I would never EVER, need to recruit any clients.

Grus and Eek, if you have a system to win the lottery, would you set up a company and help others make money? I think not...not to mention you will NEVER disclose such system at all. Another member brought up the idea or 'insurance', that Cipher take a job as insurance. But this argument is also false, as one don't partake into something as an insurance measure against the same thing he wanted to insure against. If Cipher wanted to insure against the failure of his system, he won't be selling his system as a job as both could fail the same time. He would instead get a real job.

Does it look clearer to you guys now?

 

[eek]

If you want to label someone as a snakeoil salesman thats up to you.

Those of us who been around the boards for a few years have seen plenty of them. (Steve Adkins springs to mind. )

At the end of the day us adults choose to take it or leave it.

If he really winds you up, dont read his threads.

 

[chucho]

Vesuvio, please explain , my runs for over a week at con and micro and casino365, u can see the screen shots. Using my sytstem. Please explain it.

Screen shots prove nothing, never have never will. Kinda like you don't a system that would beat the casino 70% of the time...never have, never will. That goes for everyone, not just you, but you are still special

Hello, Bethug. This is universexf6. It is my pleasure to talk to you here for the first time. Since I am interested in any betting systm available, please teach me where I can get in touch with your system on the internet. I am most delighted to see your site/programme/( or whatever it is ). Also excuse me in advance my English is not as good as Americans since I am a Japanse.

Your English is better then Thugs, maybe Thug speaks fluent Japanese? You can waste you time and money with his "system", but you are better off burning your hard earned money than sending it to thug as then you only waste the money and save the time.

**And this has gone from a dirt-slinging, insulting challenge to a full blown ego-trip combined with a bit of arrogance .... and all this while the fire-starter is not even here to see the success!! Well done. **

The "fire starter" sees his success, and he should be proud of it. I have not followed Cipers postings other than that he as some interesting tracking software. If he found a way to exploite the software because it is not random, then great. That actually may be possilble. But if he said that, and I don't think he ever did, he could beat a land based casino 70% of the time, then we would be as high on crack as Thug. I would like to vote Seanjohn back on the island as his choice of a couple unnecessary words were fueled by the stupidity of people who claim to beat land based casinos 70% of the time and prey on others who want to beleive in it. Then he takes their money in trade for his "system" and these poor suckers lose their money using his "system"

I love all the real players out there

I love all the bonus whore's, bonus hookers and pimps. Especially the bonus pimps who play for friends and family.....spread the love, it is better to give than receive say the bonus pimps.

 

[seanjohn]

...to me that indicates that you are willing to invest something in this other than running your mouth.

Now if that's the case, then by all means put up or shut up...

By 'invest' do you mean I have to buy your software first?
If what you meant was whether I am ready to put my money where my mouth is, then YES. I have $500 that says you will lose in The Wiz's Challenge.
"Are you putting up or are you shutting up?"

Everything that I've done over the past six plus years is very well documented by the casinos themselves.

Interesting. In my 2 years of gambling I have been banned by at least 30 casinos because I won too much. And the figure does NOT include where I play with bonuses. You won 48 sessions out of 50 in Casino Fortune?? And they still open the doors to you? Very good!

The way you put it, do you mean the casinos having so in detail documented your play, still knowingly and voluntarily SPONSOR you and your software?

I think I have definitely said enough about you. You and others who's reading should by now know who you are and what you are made of. I think it's a shame you are not responding because I out-reasoned you.

Have a good one!

 

[trick]

From the other thread:

First of all, I would like to thank the Casinomeister for extending the courtesy of letting me make one post before my suspension.

One post?

 

[cipher]

"I would like to vote Sean John back on the island as his choice of a couple unnecessary words were fueled by the stupidity" [/QUOTE]

Enough said, and the beat goes on and on and on and on and on ad infinitum. Even after Sean John's "BS" heart felt thanks to Bryan for Bryan's allowing Sean John to post one last post. Logically speaking Chucho, wouldn't one (Sean John) hav't to leave the "Island" before one could be voted back on to the Island? Does anyone see a pattern here? Have a good one.

 

[chucho]

Logically speaking Chucho, wouldn't one (Sean John) hav't to leave the "Island" before one could be voted back on to the Island? Does anyone see a pattern here?

I thought he was voted off the island. I don't know why I thought that?

Banned again. This time for 90 days. Next time it's for good.

I only read this post and seanjohn's only post on this thread was the 1st and the one right after mine. I think I should be banned and kicked off the island for not doing enough research. I also think that anyone that says they can beat the casino 70% of the time, consistently, shoud be banned for smoking crack or for stealing purses and only getting caught 30% of the time.

 

[seanjohn]

What a shame.

Cipher, is that all you can unashamedly come up with?
Run out of attacks so ask them to ban me?
Where is your chivalry?

At first I thought I was only allowed to make one post and then I the system would block me. Sort of like how WOL banned Caruso before he made his last post. (Sorry have to bring it up, Caruso) And indeed 1 post was all I asked from Casinomeister and he could confirm it. He told me in email,
"If you apologize to the members for your remarks and promise to watch
yourself from now on, I'll grant you access."
Now that I have re-read it it seems CM has an intention of sparing me the suspension and I only became award of his kindness after finding out I was allowed to make more than 1 post today. So why not?
I am glad that CM has taken this incident impartially. I would not object him to ban me, I did do something wrong afterall.

Cipher
So you decide NOT to put up but SHUT UP instead?
I still have $500 here waiting.
Seriously, I would have a lot more respect for you had you come out here straight and told everybody you had something to sell and CLEARLY STATED THE PRICE.
What a shame.

Have a good one!

 

[Stanford]

The only people who benefit from the claim that betting systems can beat negative value games are casinos, because, like it or not, there are readers out there who will believe what they read and try it for themselves - I nearly did, once. Those people will lose money in the endeavour. That bothers me...
Betting systems cannot overcome the house advantage. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are either foolish or malicious.

I agree. Any system based on previous wins/losses is immediatly suspect.

Consider two players at the same table each playing a progression. One decreases their bet and the other raises because they each have had different win/loss patterns. How could that be?

I remember losing hand after hand while the guy next to me wins hand after hand - and vice versa. I remember players itching to get the "hot seat".

Caruso, you say people will lose money in the endeaver. They will only do so if they are lucky. If they are unlucky they will initially win and in so doing they may lock themselves into a long supersticious spiral - forever tweaking in search of a Rumpelstiltskin answer.

Progressions and betting systems are fun. They are not profitable in the long run. That is a law.

Stanford.

 

[cipher]

Cipher, is that all you can unashamedly come up with?
Run out of attacks so ask them to ban me?
Where is your chivalry?

At first I thought I was only allowed to make one post and then I the system would block me. Sort of like how WOL banned Caruso before he made his last post. (Sorry have to bring it up, Caruso) And indeed 1 post was all I asked from Casinomeister and he could confirm it. He told me in email,
"If you apologize to the members for your remarks and promise to watch
yourself from now on, I'll grant you access."
Now that I have re-read it it seems CM has an intention of sparing me the suspension and I only became award of his kindness after finding out I was allowed to make more than 1 post today. So why not?
I am glad that CM has taken this incident impartially. I would not object him to ban me, I did do something wrong afterall.

Cipher
So you decide NOT to put up but SHUT UP instead?
I still have $500 here waiting.
Seriously, I would have a lot more respect for you had you come out here straight and told everybody you had something to sell and CLEARLY STATED THE PRICE.
What a shame.

Have a good one!

And then there's this little entree as per attached.

 

[seanjohn]

Lmao!

Dear Cipher
Ain't that funny! I swear to God I knew you were gonna screenshot me.
What else could you have done?
LMAO!!!

But what have you proven? That my facts were immediately lost validity after I promise to tell each and every newbie about it? Look how helpless you are now. Nobody will help you. Why? Because everything I have said is true and after I have removed my bad manners they have nothing, absolutely nothing to attack me at. So they would rather shut up than make a fool of themselves.

My $500 is still waiting, sir.

(And let's watch how you ignore me again...)

 

[cipher]

I'm sorry Eek, this is piffle. Cards do not have memory. That you can somehow "force" the software into dealing you good cards, having received bad cards previously, on the basis that continued bad cards "push the statistical probability of the session even further into a corner" is absolute nonsense.

My God Caruso. For the last time it has nothing to do with bad cards or good cards or anything of the sort. The Cipher program is nothing more than a tool that records trends in realtime. It's the Player's job to:

1) recognize a favorable trend. and 2) to capitalize on those trends. What is so damn difficult to understand about that?

Betting systems, online or terrestrial, cannot turn a negative expectation game into a positive one. This subject doesn't require discussion, it is a long, long established and proven fact.

All this negative expectation this and standard deviations that is absolute nonsense developed originally by the casinos themselves and consumed by the players as though it were gospel. Give me a break.

Have you ever heard of a guy by the name of Kenny Uston? Ken Uston was arguably the most famous blackjack player ever. His innovative blackjack team play techniques took millions off the Las Vegas blackjack tables before they were detected by the casinos. Player, Author, Instructor, Jazz Musician, and gambling raconteur, Kenny was a great guy to hang out with.

Brought up in a middle-class New York City household, Ken Uston graduated from Yale with the highest honors. At the age of 31 he was earning $42,500 a year plus many fringe benefits as a Senior Vice President of the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. But he gave it all up and dropped out of the corporate world to play professional blackjack. From article written by Jerry Patterson

There were more than a few "scoffers" back in the mid 80's as well but I'll guarantee you one thing that group didn't include the casinos after having been ripped for millions.

If you believe you can change the odds with a betting system, short term or long term, you are a fool.

No Caruso, I personally witnessed some of Kenny Uston's brillance then and I know damn good and well that none NONE of these on line casinos have a clue about how a true random number generator operate. Moreover anyone that believes these casinos are running true random number generators are fools. Have a good one.

 

[seanjohn]

Moreover anyone that believes these casinos are running true random number generators are fools.

Now THAT I agree.
Cipher, maybe I should tell you why I pick on you so much.
I got a VERY good friend who knew absolutely nothing about gambling, then one day he met up a guy in college who told him he got a system to beat the casinos. Need not I say, they lost everything and my friend was in deep $hit. He had to sell his car to pay off his debts. I lost his friendship as although he didn't say it, he somehow blamed me no lending him money so he could chase he losses back.

Cipher
All I ask is that you tell me why you need clients if you really got a system that beats casino's RNG. I mean, if you could really convince me maybe even I would like to sign up your client list.
Have a good one.

 

[mucullus]

It's the Player's job to:

1) recognize a favorable trend. and 2) to capitalize on those trends.
What is so damn difficult to understand about that?

In my opinion it is difficult to understand why online blackjack should develop any trends and not be subject to a complete random walk. Even in the case online casinos run an exploitable rng (and this condition isn't fulfilled by a casino not running a "true" rng) a sample size of a few hundred hands could rarely provide useable trends.

Maybe trend analysis works with stock prices, but not because they underlie a "natural" trend, but rather because people who believe in technical analyis follow and MAKE the trends themselves (self-fulfilling prophecies). Of course this won't work with blackjack.

 

[cipher]

In my opinion it is difficult to understand why online blackjack should develop any trends and not be subject to a complete random walk. Even in the case online casinos run an exploitable rng (and this condition isn't fulfilled by a casino not running a "true" rng) a sample size of a few hundred hands could rarely provide useable trends.

Maybe trend analysis works with stock prices, but not because they underlie a "natural" trend, but rather because people who believe in technical analyis follow and MAKE the trends themselves (self-fulfilling prophecies). Of course this won't work with blackjack.

Hi McCullus:

I've attached a clients session from yesterday of 102 hands. For me this strand is absolutely loaded with trends that I used in playing the session. The trends themselves are far from being hidden, it's just a matter of reading them. It seems to work quite well for my Blackjack purposes. Have a good one.

 

[cipher]

Now THAT I agree.
Cipher, maybe I should tell you why I pick on you so much.
I got a VERY good friend who knew absolutely nothing about gambling, then one day he met up a guy in college who told him he got a system to beat the casinos. Need not I say, they lost everything and my friend was in deep $hit. He had to sell his car to pay off his debts. I lost his friendship as although he didn't say it, he somehow blamed me no lending him money so he could chase he losses back.

Cipher
All I ask is that you tell me why you need clients if you really got a system that beats casino's RNG. I mean, if you could really convince me maybe even I would like to sign up your client list.
Have a good one.

Im going to respond to you one time and only one time. Not because I like you or even because Id even consider having you as a client, but because youre probably the most arrogant, rude and juvenile person that Ive ever come across and you need to know it. Your ability to make wide ranging and totally false allegations about someone you know absolutely nothing about is nothing short of mind boggling.

First off, you have no idea at all as to whats even involved in the Wizs Challenge and Id suggest you do some serious research on that issue before you run your mouth again about it.

For the record, none of the clients that I play for (to my knowledge) are even members of any of the various gambling forums and they certainly werent harvested (or so to speak) from any of the gambling forums including the Casinomeister website and/or the Winner on Line website. Any information that you think you might have to the contrary is patently false and had better be checked thoroughly.

Lastly, every one of my clients have come to me as a result of word of mouth referrals from other clients that Ive successfully played for and that I continue to play for year after year. Though Ive given probably dozens of programs away to various members of the Casinomeister website, Ive only charged one of those individuals a fee.

Its been an absolute pleasure in teaching that one individual what I know about reading trend analysis and that one individual, as a result of some very hard work and discipline has flat kicked some serious ass and made some serious money in using Cipher and he or she didnt let all the standard deviations and all the other BS get in the way of doing that. If that person chooses to reveal their identity, then thats fine and good, but I will not be revealing that persons identity.

 

[bethug]

seajohn, thanks
cause of you i have 11 new emails asking me about hood 3000
If you keep up the good work , i might need to send you a check

 

[bethug]

before i go and lay down, the hood 3000 system tore vegas up.

sean you wasting your time , cipher dont have time to bother with you

 

[mitch]

No Caruso, I personally witnessed some of Kenny Uston's brillance then and I know damn good and well that none NONE of these on line casinos have a clue about how a true random number generator operate. Moreover anyone that believes these casinos are running true random number generators are fools. Have a good one.

Cipher

I don't mean to be disrespectful and accuse you of knowingly misleading people. I know that you are very well regarded on this forum and have helped quite a number of people in casino disputes in the past

However there is a fundamental flaw in the logic of your posts that I cannot get my head around.

If it is true that your software can predict even to a minor degree the future play based on past play why are you posting the fact on a public forum?

For the truth is if I could constantly generate even a 1% advantage over the casinos I would be a multi - millionaire within a year. Why then would you post on a public forum? This would only alert the casinos that there was a problem with their software and cause them to look for a solution.

Also seeing that if what you say is true then you must be a multi -millionaire yourself, unless for some reason you restrain from exploiting your breakthrough. (Do you feel sorry for the casinos?)

You would have to be an eccentric to display this sort of behaviour and from the overall tone of your posts you do not appear to be so.

Can you please explain this dichotomy at the heart of your posts?

Mitch

"win don't gamble"

 

[cipher]

Cipher

I don't mean to be disrespectful and accuse you of knowingly misleading people. I know that you are very well regarded on this forum and have helped quite a number of people in casino disputes in the past

However there is a fundamental flaw in the logic of your posts that I cannot get my head around.

If it is true that your software can predict even to a minor degree the future play based on past play why are you posting the fact on a public forum?

For the truth is if I could constantly generate even a 1% advantage over the casinos I would be a multi - millionaire within a year. Why then would you post on a public forum? This would only alert the casinos that there was a problem with their software and cause them to look for a solution.

Also seeing that if what you say is true then you must be a multi -millionaire yourself, unless for some reason you restrain from exploiting your breakthrough. (Do you feel sorry for the casinos?)

You would have to be an eccentric to display this sort of behaviour and from the overall tone of your posts you do not appear to be so.

Can you please explain this dichotomy at the heart of your posts?

Mitch

"win don't gamble"

Hi Mitch:

I've heard this same song and dance now for better than six years now. The fact of the matter is this. The casinos couldn't do anything to change my winning patterns even if they wanted to. Unless of course they removed the numbers and spots from the cards and then they'd have no game at all. Moreover, when I play for clients the casinos have no idea that I'm even playing. Have a good one.