hhcfreebie said:
I beg to differ.
Please post your result and I'll analysis what's the odds of your unfortunate outcome.
Interesting that you ask, since you have seen this info before (You were the first post after I listed it once before.) But here it is again (I did correct my use of 'house' card vs player cards - I used the wrong words last time). I am considering doing the same analysis on the new 10 play games I dicussed above.
THE DATA:
I documented and analyzed 308 hands of Jacks or Better poker on which I attempted to double my winnings. Realizing that what card the house is dealt is not the critical factor, but the cards that are dealt for you to choose from and what chances any of those cards has to beat it. Since the choice is from four cards, you have a 0% chance (all choice cards are higher), 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% (all choice cards are lower). Here were the results:
On 242 hands on which I attempted to double $5 in winnings to $10, the house had a distinct and clear edge of 4%, based on the means, with 41 percent of hands having a less than 50% chance of winning and only 37 percent of hands have greater than 50% chance of winning.
It becomes even worse when attempting to double $10 in winnings to $20. Although there were only 62 hands, this is quite enough to come up with an everage and a mean that should only vary slightly from a larger number of hands. The house edge in this situation was 7%, with only 33% of the hands having a greater than 50% chance of winning, compared to 40% in the less than 50% category. Lots more high cards for the house and 0% chances, too.
Don't even ask about the few times I tried to make $20 into $40. On four attempts the house averaged a Jack as dealt card and a winning percentage 87%, three out of four of the hands giving the bettor 0% chance of a win. Four hands is not statistically significant, but given the other numbers, it certainly wasn't surprising.
HC - do you REALLY believe that the cards dealt in the doubling portion are actually randomly generated? What does everyone out there think?